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Putin visibly ‘shocked’ by US green-light for long-range missiles to strike inside Russia

Putin visibly ‘shocked’ by US green-light for long-range missiles to strike inside Russia

Putin visibly ‘shocked’ by US green-light for long-range missiles to strike inside Russia

Putin visibly ‘shocked’ by US green-light for long-range missiles to strike inside Russia

Putin visibly ‘shocked’ by US green-light for long-range missiles to strike inside Russia

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War, War, War
See other War, War, War Articles

Title: Iraq's death toll is far worse than our leaders admit
Source: The Independent
URL Source: http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/118356
Published: Feb 14, 2007
Author: Les Roberts
Post Date: 2007-02-14 09:58:38 by leveller
Keywords: None
Views: 36850
Comments: 457

The US and Britain have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide

14 February 2007

On both sides of the Atlantic, a process of spinning science is preventing a serious discussion about the state of affairs in Iraq.

The government in Iraq claimed last month that since the 2003 invasion between 40,000 and 50,000 violent deaths have occurred. Few have pointed out the absurdity of this statement.

There are three ways we know it is a gross underestimate. First, if it were true, including suicides, South Africa, Colombia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia have experienced higher violent death rates than Iraq over the past four years. If true, many North and South American cities and Sub-Saharan Africa have had a similar murder rate to that claimed in Iraq. For those of us who have been in Iraq, the suggestion that New Orleans is more violent seems simply ridiculous.

Secondly, there have to be at least 120,000 and probably 140,000 deaths per year from natural causes in a country with the population of Iraq. The numerous stories we hear about overflowing morgues, the need for new cemeteries and new body collection brigades are not consistent with a 10 per cent rise in death rate above the baseline.

And finally, there was a study, peer-reviewed and published in The Lancet, Europe's most prestigious medical journal, which put the death toll at 650,000 as of last July. The study, which I co-authored, was done by the standard cluster approach used by the UN to estimate mortality in dozens of countries each year. While the findings are imprecise, the lower range of possibilities suggested that the Iraq government was at least downplaying the number of dead by a factor of 10.

There are several reasons why the governments involved in this conflict have been able to confuse the issue of Iraqi deaths. Our Lancet report involved sampling and statistical analysis, which is rather dry reading. Media reports always miss most deaths in times of war, so the estimate by the media-based monitoring system, http://Iraqbodycount.org (IBC) roughly corresponds with the Iraq government's figures. Repeated evaluations of deaths identified from sources independent of the press and the Ministry of Health show the IBC listing to be less than 10 per cent complete, but because it matches the reports of the governments involved, it is easily referenced.

Several other estimates have placed the death toll far higher than the Iraqi government estimates, but those have received less press attention. When in 2005, a UN survey reported that 90 per cent of violent attacks in Scotland were not recorded by the police, no one, not even the police, disputed this finding. Representative surveys are the next best thing to a census for counting deaths, and nowhere but Iraq have partial tallies from morgues and hospitals been given such credence when representative survey results are available.

The Pentagon will not release information about deaths induced or amounts of weaponry used in Iraq. On 9 January of this year, the embedded Fox News reporter Brit Hume went along for an air attack, and we learned that at least 25 targets were bombed that day with almost no reports of the damage appearing in the press.

Saddam Hussein's surveillance network, which only captured one third of all deaths before the invasion, has certainly deteriorated even further. During last July, there were numerous televised clashes in Anbar, yet the system recorded exactly zero violent deaths from the province. The last Minister of Health to honestly assess the surveillance network, Dr Ala'din Alwan, admitted that it was not reporting from most of the country by August 2004. He was sacked months later after, among other things, reports appeared based on the limited government data suggesting that most violent deaths were associated with coalition forces.

The consequences of downplaying the number of deaths in Iraq are profound for both the UK and the US. How can the Americans have a surge of troops to secure the population and promise success when the coalition cannot measure the level of security to within a factor of 10? How can the US and Britain pretend they understand the level of resentment in Iraq if they are not sure if, on average, one in 80 families have lost a household member, or one in seven, as our study suggests?

If these two countries have triggered an episode more deadly than the Rwandan genocide, and have actively worked to mask this fact, how will they credibly be able to criticise Sudan or Zimbabwe or the next government that kills thousands of its own people?

For longer than the US has been a nation, Britain has pushed us at our worst of moments to do the right thing. That time has come again with regard to Iraq. It is wrong to be the junior partner in an endeavour rigged to deny the next death induced, and to have spokespeople effectively respond to that death with disinterest and denial.

Our nations' leaders are collectively expressing belligerence at a time when the populace knows they should be expressing contrition. If that cannot be corrected, Britain should end its role in this deteriorating misadventure. It is unlikely that any historians will record the occupation of Iraq in a favourable light. Britain followed the Americans into this débâcle. Wouldn't it be better to let history record that Britain led them out?

The writer is an Associate Professor at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health

http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2268067.ece

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#374. To: BeAChooser (#369)

You-who, BeAChooser, your input is requested on another discussion thread.

http://www.freedom4um.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=46178

scrapper2  posted on  2007-02-18   19:22:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#375. To: scrapper2 (#374)

One more for ya BAC, this was today. Yeh I know, it's only one, but I thought you'd like to see the handiwork of the Great Decider

tom007  posted on  2007-02-18   20:12:45 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#376. To: BeAChooser (#366)

It's a study by the UN Development program which found that the 2004 Lancet study was off by about a factor of 4.

It doesn't say that.

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-18   22:19:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#377. To: BeAChooser (#369) (Edited)

Yawn.

I could prove I was the king of Mars were I to pull facts out of my butt the way you are doing above.

You are still posting the same stuff from the same kook blogs. You and hiding your misinterpretation of some other very questionable sources behind spam.

If you you had a reputable and specific quote that supported your crap, you would post it with a reference and let it speak for itself. I know that. Everyone else on the site knows that, the lurkers know that and some drunk passed out in an alley in Outer Mongolia probably knows that too. Instead of doing this, you give us the same crap as before with ten pages of blater to window dress it.

BAC, I can tell just how worthless your argument is by how long your post is. The longer the post, the more you have to hide and the more you are skating on bullshit. It always works that way with you. It NEVER varies. The BAC bullshit index moves in direct proportion to the length of the post.

Goldi was right when she booted your ass for being a an irrational nut. You really are a kook.

.

...  posted on  2007-02-18   22:33:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#378. To: BeAChooser (#368)

OK, here is what you've given us so far:

1. Links that were not what you claimed them to be which you tried to dishonesly fob off on us as "proof" of your kookery.

2. Either cherry picked quotes from studies that were not on point or allegations that studies not on point somehow supported your kookery - without the benefit of a supporting quote.

3. Lots and lots of links to one or two kook blogs which you have been told time and time again no rational person accepts as being of equal diginity with Johns Hopkins or even being legit.

4. Reams of long, black rambling, ranting, kooky paragraphs explaining how the SHIT above somehow proves up your kookery.

Using what you have provided I can pull the following inferences:

1. You have nothing matching the dignity of the Johns Hopkins study with which to refute the Johns Hopkins study.

2. You don't like people considering the ramifications of the Johns Hopkins study. It bugs you.

Thank you for sharing this.

I will give it all the consideration I would give to the rant of any other dishonest kook.

.

...  posted on  2007-02-18   23:27:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#379. To: BeAChooser (#369)

One more thing. I've asked you to stop pinging me when you post the same shit and the same kook references time and time again.

I told you I wasn't impressed the first time you tried this bamboozle. I told you the second time as well. I then told you the third time. Coming back with the same spam a 4th time won't have a different effect - and only kooks like you think that doing the same thing over and over will get you a different result.

Don't bother to ping me if you are just going to whitewash the same shit for a 4th pass.

.

...  posted on  2007-02-18   23:37:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#380. To: BeAChooser (#369)

I notice that you are a nut case and that you have the time to be on the web pretty much 24/7.

Are you one of those kooks on disability?

That would explain a lot.

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   0:06:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#381. To: BeAChooser (#369)

There are not photos of mountains of bodies. There are no videos of this slaughter. There are no reporters saying they saw these bodies. There are not US or foreign soldiers providing evidence of such a slaughter. That should raise a red flag.

Yes it does raise a red flag.. that being that our media is controlled by none other than those who rule us.. Hmm well lemme see ...just a thought since we havent seen or the media permitted to take photos of caskets returning from Iraq other than one that was leaked.. are you then saying that the 3,000 plus number we are told died in Iraq shouldnt be believed? Then I guess there were only a few who actually died.. using this logic of yours..

Zipporah  posted on  2007-02-19   0:34:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#382. To: ... (#378)

The Pentagon's Secret Air War Over Iraq

Among the largest of America's "permanent" megabases in Iraq is Balad Air Base with the sorts of daily air-traffic pile-ups that you would normally see over Chicago's O'Hare Airport. And yet, as Tomdispatch.com has written numerous times over these last years, reporters in Iraq almost determinedly refuse to look up or report on the regular, if intermittent, application of American air power especially to heavily populated neighborhoods in Iraq's cities...

In statistics provided to Tomdispatch, CENTAF reported a total of 10,519 "close air support missions" in Iraq in 2006, during which its aircraft dropped 177 bombs and fired 52 "Hellfire/Maverick missiles." ...

One weapon conspicuously left out of this total is rockets -- such as the 2.75-inch Hydra-70 rocket which can be outfitted with various warheads and is fired from fixed-wing aircraft and most helicopters. The number of rockets fired is withheld from the press so as, according to a CENTAF spokesman, not to "skew the tally and present an inaccurate picture of the air campaign." The number of rockets fired may be quite significant as, according to a 2005 press release issued by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who helped secure a $900 million Hydra contract from the Army for General Dynamics, "the widely used Hydra-70 rocket… has seen extensive use in Afghanistan and Iraq… [and] has become the world's most widely used helicopter-launched weapon system." ...

The number of cannon rounds fired -- some models of the AC-130 gunship, for instance, have a Gatling gun that can fire up to 1,800 rounds in a single minute-- is also a closely guarded secret. The official reason given is that "special forces often use aircraft such as the AC-130" and since "their missions and operations are classified, so therefore these figures are not released."

Repeated inquiries concerning another reporter's statistics on cannon rounds fired by CENTAF aircraft prompted the same official to emphatically state in an email: "WE DO NOT REPORT CANNON ROUNDS."...

According to Roberts, who was last in Iraq in 2004 (where, he says, he personally witnessed "the shredding of entire blocks" in Baghdad's Sadr City by aerial cannon fire), "rocket and cannon fire could account for most coalition-attributed civilian deaths." He adds, "I find it disturbing that they will not release this [figure], but even more disturbing that they have not released such information to Congressmen who have requested it." ...

Macdougall reported that the B-1B Lancer, the long- range bomber that carries the largest payload of weapons in the Air Force was, for the first time in over a year, again being employed in combat in Iraq.

"These B-1 bombers were central to the raid. We're told they flew a ten-hour mission, and by the looks of their empty bomb bays, these planes dropped thousands of pounds of munitions. They bombed 25 targets deep inside Iraq," he said...

I had a question for Lt. Col. Kennedy: Could he explain how CENTAF decided what was an acceptable level of civilian caualties it was willing to sacrifice for military aims? His answer: "Not in a sufficient manner that you would be happy with." ...

During the Vietnam War, the United States conducted a clandestine air war in Cambodia, lied about it to the press, and hid it from the American public. In Iraq, the military has, these last years, engaged in a different kind of secretive air campaign, but their methods of keeping it a mystery appear to have certain similarities....

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-19   0:34:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#383. To: BeAChooser (#369)

How is the bozo count doing Mr. Advocate?

Getting close to the 50+ ban region yet?

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   0:44:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#384. To: AGAviator, BeAChooser (#382)

In statistics provided to Tomdispatch, CENTAF reported a total of 10,519 "close air support missions" in Iraq in 2006, during which its aircraft dropped 177 bombs and fired 52 "Hellfire/Maverick missiles."...The number of rockets fired is withheld from the press so as, according to a CENTAF spokesman, not to "skew the tally and present an inaccurate picture of the air campaign." The number of rockets fired may be quite significant as, according to a 2005 press release issued by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who helped secure a $900 million Hydra contract from the Army for General Dynamics, "the widely used Hydra-70 rocket… has seen extensive use in Afghanistan and Iraq… [and] has become the world's most widely used helicopter-launched weapon system." ...

Thanks for that information, Aviator.

Lord, 650,000 Iraqi deaths maybe a lowball figure in light of what the military has used in that nation,roughly the physical size of California.

This is shameful, absolutely shameful. May the neocon cabal - the IsraelFirster war pigs who propelled us into this war of lies, rot in hell for what their machinations have wrought on a people who posed absolutely zero threat to America.

scrapper2  posted on  2007-02-19   0:44:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#385. To: scrapper2 (#384) (Edited)

Lord, 650,000 Iraqi deaths maybe a lowball figure in light of what the military has used in that nation, roughly the physical size of California.

Well, first of all, Roberts' survey does not say all the "excess deaths" have been directly caused by the US or its Iraqi surrogates. Roberts is saying that combat deaths of insurgents, combat deaths of noncombatant civilians, deaths from breakdown of medical system, deaths from criminal activity, deaths from Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence, etc. exceed a "baseline" mortality rate by this 655,000 amount.

But when we look at the money expended on the war, and the number of missions both on the ground and in the air, 100,000 dead from the war seems a ridiculously low number.

At $1 trillion cost for the war, which is $ 1 million x $1 million, a total of 100,000 deaths means it costs $10 million to kill each and every person. Is there anybody out there so stupid as to allege the US military which is supposed to be the most lethal military force in human history takes $10 million for each and every dead body it produces?

The answer to where is this violent activity happening is in the secret air war. They're expending huge amounts of rockets and cannon rounds which they intentionally don't report. They are also stepping up the use of B-1 bombers.

There have probably been over 100,000 missions flown. Balad air base is as busy as O'Hare Airport in Chicago. As with the total cost of the war, are all these air missions being flown and nobody ever gets hurt? Give me a break.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-19   0:54:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#386. To: AGAviator (#385)

Well, first of all, Roberts' survey does not say all the "excess deaths" have been directly caused by the US or its Iraqi surrogates. Roberts is saying that combat deaths of insurgents, combat deaths of noncombatant civilians, deaths from breakdown of medical system, deaths from criminal activity, deaths from Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence, etc. exceed a "baseline" mortality rate by this 655,000 amount.

Oh I realize that. But all of these Iraqi deaths came as a result of the US invasion. It's unlikely sectarian violence related deaths or insurgent deaths or high crime related deaths would have happened to such a monumental degree if we had not done "regime change" in March 2003. All these deaths were a direct or indirect result of our illegal and immoral invasion. There's no wiggle room for blame - we are to blame for invading a sovereign stable nation which caused all hell to break loose thereafter.

scrapper2  posted on  2007-02-19   1:10:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#387. To: beachooser, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#365)

Can't resist picking on the ladies, can you BAC. Christine is good enough to let you post here & you don't have the brains to be grateful.

(No surprise.)


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-02-19   1:12:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#388. To: scrapper2 (#386)

All these deaths were a direct or indirect result of our illegal and immoral invasion

True. As the occupying power under international law, the US is solely responsible for providing a functioning government.

However it's a distortion to accuse Roberts of whipping up anti-military hysteria because of his survey and to allege the military itself killed all those 655,000.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-19   1:15:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#389. To: beachooser, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#366)

BAC, BAC, BAC -

These were all killed at the hands of American War Crimes. The numbers matter little, whatever they are.

There's the bottom line, Slurpy.

All your spamming can't change that.


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-02-19   1:15:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#390. To: LP Bozo King Thread (#383) (Edited)

BAC has only been here a week and I heard a rumor that more than 40 people have him on bozo. I see why Goldi booted his butt. He make a shitty front man for her party.

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   1:18:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#391. To: AGAviator (#388)

However it's a distortion to accuse Roberts of whipping up anti-military hysteria because of his survey and to allege the military itself killed all those 655,000.

Who dat be who's accusing Roberts thusly? Pas moi.

scrapper2  posted on  2007-02-19   1:26:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#392. To: BeAChooser (#369)

Do you mind if I call you "Bozo Bait"?

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   1:27:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#393. To: Minerva (#392) (Edited)

Every time a clown's nose honks another bozoing takes wing. ;-)


Captain Paul Watson
Sea Shepherd Conservation Society

Ferret Mike  posted on  2007-02-19   1:45:12 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#394. To: BeAChooser (#368)

Are you trying to say that the death rate in Iraq since this war started is no higher than in other countries who are not at war?

I suppose all the American and British troops are there repairing the waste-water treatment plants and passing out flowers and cookies to the Iraqi people.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-19   9:24:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#395. To: BeAChooser (#369)

There is NO physical evidence to support the claim that 655,000 Iraqis were killed from the beginning of the war to mid 2006. There are no bodies. There are not photos of mountains of bodies. There are no videos of this slaughter. There are no reporters saying they saw these bodies. There are not US or foreign soldiers providing evidence of such a slaughter. That should raise a red flag.

Uh....

Perhaps you haven't heard, but often in wartime when people are killed, their deaths are not always documented by photograpshs, film, video or even by death certificates.

In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later. I'm surprised you aren't aware of this practice.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-19   9:31:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#396. To: rowdee, BeAChooser (#370) (Edited)

"The danger is clear: Using chemical, biological, or, one day, nuclear weapons obtained with the help of Iraq, the terrorists could fulfill their stated ambitions and kill thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people in our country," he said in the speech. "The United States and other nations did nothing to deserve or invite this threat. But we will do everything to defeat it."

Iraq could launch an attack in 45 minutes

On September 26, 2002, President Bush repeated a claim put forth by British intelligence that "the Iraqi regime could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the order were given." On September 28, he again made the claim in his weekly radio address.

Very informative post which sums up a lot of the alarming false claims made to scare Americans into thinking they were in danger of being wiped out by Iraq.

I remember at the time the tv was on in the other room on FOX news, and they kept repeating the word "terrorist" like they would try to use it mutliple times in each sentence. I would be on the computer but keep over-hearing, "the terrorists this, the terrorists that..." over and over and over until I was about ready to pull my hair out.

This was right before the invasion when they were trying to drum up fear and a sense of urgency.

Before THAT they were only referring to Islamic fundamentalists and those responsible for 911 as terrorists, but in the spring of 2003 suddenly FOX news deemed Iraqis terrorists as well.

They sure do believe in lots of repetition of words and phrases to drum thoughts and ideas into peoples' heads. It doesn't work on me though, I just find it very annoying.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-19   9:50:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#397. To: Minerva (#380)

There are retired people and wealthy people who have more time on their hands to be fair.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-19   9:55:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#398. To: BeAChooser, Diana, SKYDRIFTER (#365)

[George W. Bush]

The danger to our country is grave and it is growing. The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons, is rebuilding the facilities to make more and, according to the British government, could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the order is given. The regime has long-standing and continuing ties to terrorist groups, and there are al Qaeda terrorists inside Iraq. This regime is seeking a nuclear bomb, and with fissile material could build one within a year.

Iraq has already used weapons of mass death against another country and against its own citizens. The Iraqi regime practices the rape of women as a method of intimidation, and the torture of dissenters and their children. And for more than a decade, that regime has answered Security Council resolutions with defiance and bad faith and deception.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020928.html

Radio Address by the President to the Nation

listen Audio


Fact sheet en Español

Among the evil committed by the Bush regime against the Iraqi people, are the very deeds he claims Saddam's regime was committing. As Rumsfeld put it, after watching the Abu Ghraib:

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/14864

What is shown on the photographs and videos from Abu Ghraib prison that the Pentagon has blocked from release? One clue: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Congress last year, after viewing a large cache of unreleased images, "I mean, I looked at them last night, and they're hard to believe." They show acts "that can only be described as blatantly sadistic, cruel and inhumane," he added.

A Republican Senator suggested the same day they contained scenes of "rape and murder." Rumsfeld then commented, "If these are released to the public, obviously it's going to make matters worse."

Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)

robin  posted on  2007-02-19   10:53:22 ET  (3 images) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#399. To: Ferret Mike (#393)

Great Bozo pic!

Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)

robin  posted on  2007-02-19   10:54:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#400. To: Hayek Fan, scrapper2, ..., kiwi, bluedogtxn, ALL (#353)

What boggles my mind is that in the WTC debate, BAC refuses to accept any information from a person with a doctorate in physics because he isn't a metallurgist.

There is much more to my reason for not believing Steven Jones than his not being a metallurgist. Why try to misstate my views, Hayek? Ex-Professor Jones claims some expertise in the subjects of structures, demolition, steel, fire, concrete, impact, seismology and macro-world physics. Yet, ex-professor Jones spent his entire 30 year career studying sub-atomic particles and cold fusion. Not once in that career did he publish a paper that had anything remotely to do with any of the topics needed to speak authoratively on the WTC.

Furthermore, Professor Jones has been dishonest about a number of subjects. To give you just one example, in speaking about the molten material seen flowing out of the South Tower shortly before it collapsed, he said "In the videos of the molten metal falling from WTC2 just prior to its collapse, it appears consistently orange, not just orange in spots and certainly not silvery." This is untrue. If you watch this video,

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2991254740145858863&q=cameraplanet+9%2F11,

you will see silver color in the stream of material once it gets away from the window. This occurs from 12 seconds in the video to 33 seconds in the video. It is especially clear at about 32 seconds. You'll also see it from 57 seconds to a 67 seconds. And from 74 to 75 seconds, material can be seen pouring from the corner of the tower and that material is very clearly silver, not orange. So Steven Jones is demonstrably lying. Why would you trust such a liar, Hayek? For the same reason you trust Les Roberts?

BAC accepts as gospel information from a blogger who appears to have no training whatsoever in epidemiology, and who's expertise appears to be that he collects old mathematics textbooks.

No, Hayek, you know full well that I've posted over a dozen different sources on this thread alone that say Les Robert's studies are not what you and he claim. Why don't you try arguing what the blog actually says? Why don't you TRY to address the points I raised in post 123? Is the basis of your belief so thin you can't do that? Don't hide. Do you wish to claim the following points are untrue? Yes or no? By the way I've added a few based on what I discovered during the course of this thread.

1) The 655,000 estimate is many, many times larger than any other estimate (and there are half a dozen others). Even anti-war and anti-American groups and individuals have indicated the Lancet figures are outlandish.

2. The report and peer reviewers ignored a major discrepancy between the pre-war mortality estimate derived by the John Hopkins team and the estimate derived by other organizations (such as the UN and WHO) in much larger studies. The UN and WHO came up with rates of 7-8 per 1000 per year compared to the John Hopkin's rate of 5-5.5 per 1000. And these larger rates were estimates that the Lancet had endorsed as accurate previously. And this pre-war mortality number is one of the key numbers used in determining excess deaths. If it were as high as the UN and WHO found, then the number of excess deaths would be far less.

3. According to the report, 92 percent of those who claimed deaths in their families (501 out of 545) were able to provide death certificates to prove it. Therefore, if the study is statistically valid there should be death certificates available for 92 percent of the 655,000 estimated dead. But investigations by anti-Bush, anti-war media sources have not found evidence of anywhere near that number. What they found were numbers closer to those other, much lower estimates. To take the Johns Hopkins study seriously, you have to believe that the Iraqi government recorded deaths occurring since the invasion with an accuracy of 92 percent, but then suppressed the bulk of those deaths when releasing official figures, with no one blowing the whistle . And you have to believe that all those dead bodies went unnoticed by the mainstream media and everyone else trying to keep track of the war casualties. Alternatively, you have to believe that the Iraqi government only issues death certificates for a small percentage of deaths, but this random sample got 92 percent by pure chance.

4. The author of the article and the studies has publically stated he disliked Bush and the war, released the study when he did to negatively influence the election against Bush and the GOP, and admitted that those he hired to conduct the study in Iraq "HATE" (that was his word) the Americans.

5. The Lancet not only failed in its *peer* review to question why the pre-war mortality rates used in the study were so vastly different than numbers from previous, larger studies that they had previously blessed, they also reported on their own website that the deaths were comprised solely of civilians when the study made no such claim. And they admitted that the peer review process was greatly abbreviated so that the results could be published in time to influence the election.

6. When interviewers of the lead researchers completely misrepresented the results (for example, calling all the dead "civilians"), those researchers (one being Les Robert) made no effort to correct those falsehoods. And they went on to lie, both directly and by omission, about the methodology they used. That is indisputable. For example, here is what another of the John Hopkins researchers, Richard Garfield, told an interviewer: "First of all, very few people refused or were unable to take part in the sample, to our surprise most people had death certificates and we were able to confirm most of the deaths we investigated." That is a LIE since the first study (which is what he was talking about) indicates they only confirmed 7% of them. And Les Roberts did the same thing in another interview .

7. In the interview URLed above, Garfield stated "And here you see that deaths recorded in the Baghdad morgue were, for a long period, around 200 per month." 200 a month, in one of the biggest and most violent regions in the country. And now Les Roberts is asking us to believe that 15,000 were dying each month in the country since the war began.

8. Garfield is another of those who advocated mortality statistics before the war that are widely divergent from those derived using the Les Roberts study interviews. In fact, Richard Garfield said the most probable number of deaths of under-five children from August 1991 to June 2002 would be about 400,000. His *expert* opinion was that the rate in 2002 would was 9-10 percent compared to the Les Robert's estimate of 2.9 percent. So why didn't Robert's or Garfield address that disparity? And the Lancet blessed and championed the conclusions of Garfield back in 2002. So why did they ignore the discrepancy during their peer review of Les Robert's study?

9. There is NO physical evidence to support the claim that 655,000 Iraqis were killed from the beginning of the war to mid 2006. There are no bodies. There are not photos of mountains of bodies. There are no videos of this slaughter. There are no reporters saying they saw these bodies. There are no US or foreign soldiers providing evidence of such a slaughter.

10. Dahr Jamail is an example of the above. He is viralently anti-American. He has close ties to the insurgents. Look on his website ( http://dahrjamailiraq.com/) for any indication that 500, much less 100 Iraqis were dying every single day back in 2003 and 2004 when he first started reporting from Iraq, which was during the period covered by not only the second but the first John Hopkins study. You won't find any indication.

11. Last year was arguably the most violent since the invasion. Yet even the Iraqis reported the number killed was on the order of 16,000 in that year ... an average of 45 a day. That certainly stands in sharp constrast to the John Hopkins researchers (and their proponents) who claim that more than 500 a day have died every day on average since the invasion began.

12. The number of dead the John Hopkins methodology gives in Fallujah is so staggering that even the John Hopkins researchers had to discard the data point. Yet in interviews, Les Roberts has responded as if the Fallujah data was accurate. For example, in an interview with Socialist Workers Online (http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/article.php4?article_id=6271), when asked why two thirds of all violent deaths were concentrated in this city, Les Roberts didn't respond "the data was wrong or atypical in Fallujah" as it states in his report. No, he answered the question as if he thought the data point was representative of what happened in Fallujah as a whole. He said "we think that our findings, if anything, underestimated the number of deaths because of the number of empty and destroyed houses. Some of the families probably fled, but many are probably dead. Of those families sticking around in Fallujah, a quarter lost a family member in the few months leading up to the interview."

13. The UN Development program found that the 2004 John Hopkin's study was off by about a factor of 4. Here's the UN report: http://www.iq.undp.org/ILCS/PDF/Analytical%20Report%20-%20English.pdf. It says that the UN found after the first year that there were 24,000 war-related deaths (18,000-29,000, with a 95% confidence level), which is approximately 1/4th the number of excess deaths the Les Robert's study found. And the UN used similar techniques - clusters, etc. - but with a much larger data set. Why is there no mention of this study in the lastest John Hopkin's report? Why was this discrepancy not addressed by the Lancet *peer* reviewers?

14. "The claim is 654,965 excess deaths caused by the war from March 2003 through July 2006. That's 40 months, or 1200 days, so an average of 546 deaths per day. To get an average of 546 deaths per day means that there must have been either many hundreds of days with 1000 or more deaths per day (example: 200 days with 1000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1000 days with an average of 450 deaths), or tens of days with at least 10,000 or more deaths per day (example: 20 days with 10,000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1180 days with an average of 381 deaths). So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?" (http://www.claytoncramer.com/weblog/2006_10_08_archive.html#116069912405842066)

15. John Hopkins claims "We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654,965 (392,979 - 942,636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2.5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601,027 (426,369 - 793,663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gun fire." But during World War II, the Allied air forces carpet bombed German cities, using high explosives and incendiaries, and killed only 305,000. So are we to believe that with gun fire, twice as many Iraqis have been killed in the last 3 years, as died in all Germany during WW2 due to strategic bombing of cities which completely flattened entire cities? Likewise, Japan had about 2 million citizens killed (about 2.7 percent of their population), both military and civilian. Many Japanese cities were firebombed during that war (Tokyo had 100,000 people killed in just one raid). Two cities were attacked with nuclear weapons. And yet Les Roberts and crew want us to believe that just as large a percentage have died in Iraq where the Coalition has gone out of its way to avoid civilian deaths?

Who do you think you are fooling, Hayek?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:19:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#401. To: Minerva, ALL (#376)

"It's a study by the UN Development program which found that the 2004 Lancet study was off by about a factor of 4."

It doesn't say that.

Yes it does. Look on page 54 of the report. You'll find a section with the headline "War-related deaths - between 18,000 and 29,000". It states that "the ILCS data indicates 24,000 deaths, with a 95 percent confidence interval from 18,000 to 29,000." Now 24,000 is about 1/4th the 98,000 estimated by Roberts during the same period.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:31:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#402. To: ... (#401)

Ping to #401. ROTFLOL!

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:33:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#403. To: BeAChooser (#401) (Edited)

I don't see it.

And how would an out of context quote from a report on another subject be relevant? This report wasn't done at the same time as the Lancet study, it wasn't done for the same purpose and wasn't done in the same manner. In addition, I am almost certain it deosn't even address the Lancet study.

As I said above, you are trying to twist a non-applicable source to your purpose. It's as clever as the fake link scheme that you tried before this. But what does it prove? I mean about the argument in general - not about you.

If you have any doubts here, read the table of contents of this tomb you have posted without any further reference. The focus is on something entirely different from the Lancet study.

Now, unlike you I don't get disablity for being a kook. Hence, I have to focus on my work.

.

...  posted on  2007-02-19   18:34:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#404. To: Zipporah, ALL (#381)

Yes it does raise a red flag.. that being that our media is controlled by none other than those who rule us.

You honestly think that NO OUTLET in our media would show photos and video if they had proof the war had killed MORE THAN TEN TIMES the number that the Bush administration had said? You honestly believe that? You sure you live in the US? ROTFLOL!

And by the way, how do you explain the foreign media completely failing to publish such proof if it exists? You think the French wouldn't if they had the proof? You think al-Jazerra wouldn't? And they have sources inside Iraq. Dahr Jamail is a good example. Are you saying he is controlled? ROTFLOL!

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:39:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#405. To: AGAviator, ALL (#382)

The Pentagon's Secret Air War Over Iraq

But the John Hopkins report specifically said that most Iraq deaths are NOT due to air power.

In statistics provided to Tomdispatch, CENTAF reported a total of 10,519 "close air support missions" in Iraq in 2006, during which its aircraft dropped 177 bombs and fired 52 "Hellfire/Maverick missiles."

My goodness. Those numbers are STAGGERING. One can see why Les Roberts thinks we've killed as many people in the last 2 years as we did during the CARPET BOMBING of Germany's cities in WW2. ROTFLOL!

"rocket and cannon fire could account for most coalition-attributed civilian deaths."

What you forgot to mention is that the John Hopkins reports only attributes a portion of the overall excess deaths to coalition military actions.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:47:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#406. To: BeAChooser (#405)

Did the John Hopkins report mention your side is getting its ass kicked?

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-02-19   18:50:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#407. To: BeAChooser (#401)

It doesn't say that.

Yes it does. Look on page 54 of the report.

I don't see it. It doesn't say what you claim it does. But I suppose you already know that.

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   18:55:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#408. To: Minerva, christine, ALL (#383)

How is the bozo count doing Mr. Advocate?

Getting close to the 50+ ban region yet?

Isn't it interesting, the number of FD4UM members who choose to bozo themselves rather than read verifiable facts? Now as far as I know, there is no such "ban region" nor do I intend to leave just because some members of FD4UM are afraid to face facts. I shall continue to post sourced facts on various threads to show that what some here are presenting as reliable truth is far from it. This thread is a good example. I posted well over a dozen sources pointing out major flaws in a study that would have you believe the Iraq war has killed twice as many people as carpet bombing of German cities killed in WW2. NOT ONE of the posters on this thread has even dared take on the facts I listed in post #123. Instead, they are bozoing themselves right and left. And to think that at one time they dared me to come over here and debate them. But it takes two to debate and so far I haven't even found one willing to do that. ROTFLOL!

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   18:55:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#409. To: BeAChooser (#408)

Isn't it interesting, the number of FD4UM members who choose to bozo themselves rather than read verifiable facts?

Wow! I guessed your bozo number right on. I guess I flushed you out.

But I haven't seen you post any facts yet. Mostly you've just blathered out some pretty strange opinions and then posted links that were not what you said they were to support them. That or some really wacky blogs that it looks like you wrote yourself. You did post one article from the UN however, but you didn't give us the specific quote or tell us why it was at all on point.

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   19:05:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#410. To: BeAChooser (#408)

But it takes two to debate and so far I haven't even found one willing to do that.

People told you that your unsupported kooky opinion was BS. What can they do past that point?

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-19   19:06:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#411. To: BeAChooser (#408)

Verifiable facts? You want some verifiable facts?

Here you go: dead American corporate cannon fodder.

"Bring 'em on"

TD>
PeriodDateUSUKOther*Total
502/19/075005
502/18/072002
502/17/074004
502/16/071001
502/14/075005
502/13/072002
502/12/070000
502/11/073003
502/10/071001
502/09/074105
502/08/073003
502/07/07110112
502/06/072002
502/05/071102
502/04/072002
502/03/071001
502/02/076006
502/01/077007
501/31/072002
501/30/073003
501/29/071001
501/28/073003
501/27/075005
501/26/072002
501/25/074004
501/24/072002
501/23/073003
501/22/072002
501/21/073104
501/20/07250025
501/19/073003
501/18/071001
501/17/072002
501/16/071001
501/15/075005
501/14/072002
501/13/071102
501/09/073003
501/07/075106
501/06/072002
501/05/071001
501/04/071001
501/01/071001
512/31/064004
512/30/062002
512/29/062002
512/28/066107
512/27/066028
512/26/063003
512/25/067007
512/24/062002
512/23/067007
512/22/061001
512/21/064004
512/20/064004
512/19/062002
512/18/062002
512/17/061001
512/16/064004
512/15/062002
512/14/063003
512/12/062002
512/11/064004
512/10/065005
512/09/061001
512/07/064004
512/06/06120012
512/05/062002
512/04/068008
512/03/067007
512/02/064004
512/01/061001
511/30/062002
511/29/061001
511/28/062002
511/27/062002
511/26/064004
511/25/063003
511/24/062103
511/23/061001
511/22/063003
511/21/063003
511/19/061001
511/18/061001
511/16/061001
511/15/063003
511/14/067007
511/13/062002
511/12/062406
511/11/063003
511/10/060022
511/09/065005
511/07/062002
511/06/063104
511/05/062002
511/04/063003
511/02/068008
511/01/063003
510/31/062002
510/30/063003
510/29/061001
510/27/061102
510/26/061001
510/25/065005
510/23/065005
510/22/065005
510/21/066006
510/20/061012
510/19/061001
510/18/064004
510/17/06110011
510/15/067007
510/14/066006
510/13/063003
510/12/061001
510/11/063003
510/09/064004
510/08/066006
510/07/065005
510/06/063014
510/04/066006
510/03/062002
510/02/068109
510/01/066006
509/30/064004
509/29/062002
509/28/061001
509/27/061001
509/26/064004
509/25/061001
509/24/062002
509/23/064015
509/21/061012
509/20/065005
509/19/064004
509/18/061001
509/17/062002
509/16/061001
509/15/061001
509/14/067007
509/13/062002
509/12/061001
509/11/061001
509/10/061001
509/09/062002
509/08/061001
509/07/063104
509/06/062002
509/04/066208
509/03/069009
509/02/061001
509/01/062002
508/31/061001
508/30/062002
508/29/062002
508/28/062002
508/27/06120012
508/26/062002
508/25/061001
508/24/064004
508/23/062002
508/22/061001
508/21/061001
508/20/064004
508/19/061001
508/18/061001
508/17/061001
508/16/064004
508/12/063003
508/10/061001
508/09/065005
508/06/064004
508/05/061001
508/04/063003
508/03/062002
508/02/064004
508/01/061102
507/31/061001
507/29/064004
507/27/064015
507/26/061001
507/25/061001
507/24/063003
507/22/063003
507/21/062002
507/20/062002
507/19/060011
507/18/062002
507/17/064004
507/16/061001
507/15/062103
507/14/061001
507/13/061001
507/12/062002
507/10/061001
507/09/061001
507/08/063003
507/03/061001
507/02/062002
507/01/061001
506/29/065005
506/28/061001
506/27/063003
506/26/063003
506/25/061001
506/24/063003
506/23/065005
506/22/061001
506/21/063003
506/20/064004
506/17/062002
506/16/064004
506/15/061001
506/14/061001
506/09/065005
506/08/063003
506/07/063003
506/06/066017
506/05/063014
506/03/064004
505/31/062002
505/30/062002
505/29/062002
505/28/060202
505/27/063003
505/26/061001
505/25/063003
505/23/063003
505/22/062002
505/21/061001
505/18/065005
505/17/061001
505/16/061001
505/15/062002
505/14/067007
505/13/062204
505/12/062002
505/11/067007
505/10/061001
505/09/061001
505/08/061001
505/07/061012
505/06/0655010
505/05/064004
505/04/064004
505/03/064004
505/01/062002
504/29/061001
504/28/065005
504/27/063047
504/26/061001
504/25/062002
504/24/062002
504/23/063003
504/22/066006
504/21/060011
504/20/061001
504/19/062002
504/18/061001
504/16/061001
504/15/065106
504/14/061001
504/13/063003
504/12/063003
504/11/064004
504/10/062002
504/09/063003
504/08/064004
504/07/061001
504/06/064004
504/04/061001
504/02/06130013
504/01/064004
503/31/061001
503/30/062002
503/28/063003
503/25/061012
503/23/062013
503/21/061001
503/18/062002
503/16/063003
503/15/061001
503/13/063003
503/12/061001
503/11/061001
503/10/061001
503/08/061001
503/07/062002
503/06/061001
503/05/061001
503/03/061001
503/01/063003
502/28/060202
502/27/061001
502/26/064004
502/25/063003
502/24/062002
502/22/067007
502/21/061001
502/20/063003
502/18/062002
502/17/062002
502/14/063003
502/12/063003
502/09/062002
502/07/062002
502/06/065005
502/05/064004
502/04/061001
502/03/062002
502/02/063104
502/01/065005
501/31/060101
501/30/060101
501/28/063003
501/27/061001
501/25/062002
501/24/061001
501/23/065005
501/22/062002
501/20/066006
501/17/061001
501/16/062002
501/15/062002
501/14/061001
501/13/064004
501/10/061001
501/07/06180018
501/05/06110011
501/01/062002
512/31/051001
512/30/053003
512/29/052002
512/28/051001
512/27/052002
512/26/054004
512/25/052002
512/24/052002
512/23/052002
512/22/052002
512/20/052002
512/19/051001
512/18/051001
512/16/051001
512/15/052002
Total 99234211047

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-02-19   19:09:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#412. To: scrapper2, AGAviator, ALL (#384)

Lord, 650,000 Iraqi deaths maybe a lowball figure in light of what the military has used in that nation,roughly the physical size of California.

Do you how big Germany in WW2 was compared to California?

Roughly 180,000 square miles. Compared to California's 164,000.

So the strategic bombing of Germany took place in a country about the same size as California or Iraq.

The United States Strategic Bombing Survey Summary Report developed some estimates of deaths as a result of strategic bombing:

"Official German statistics place total casualties from air attack -- including German civilians, foreigners, and members of the armed forces in cities that were being attacked -- at 250,253 killed for the period from January 1, 1943, to January 31, 1945, and 305,455 wounded badly enough to require hospitalization, during the period from October 1, 1943, to January 31, 1945. A careful examination of these data, together with checks against the records of individual cities that were attacked, indicates that they are too low. A revised estimate prepared by the Survey (which is also a minimum) places total casualties for the entire period of the war at 305,000 killed and 780,000 wounded."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_World_War_II The allies dropped close to 3 million TONS of explosives on German targets during the war. With little or no concern for German civilian casualties.

British bomber planes attacked Hamburg, Germany, creating a firestorm over nine square miles, reaching 1800 degrees Fahrenheit, killing 40,000.

This is what Hamburg looked like after the 1943 bombing:

This is what Dresden looked like during and after it's bombing;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II "The bombing created a firestorm with temperatures peaking at over 1500°C (2700°F). ... snip ... A Dresden police report written shortly after the attacks stated that the old town and the inner eastern suburbs had been engulfed in a single fire which had destroyed almost 12,000 dwellings including residential barracks. The report also said that the raid had destroyed "24 banks; 26 insurance buildings; 31 stores and retail houses; 6470 shops; 640 warehouses; 256 market halls; 31 large hotels; 26 public houses; 63 administrative buildings; 3 theatres; 18 cinemas; 11 churches; 60 chapels; 50 cultural-historical buildings; 19 hospitals including auxiliary, overflow hospitals, and private clinics; 39 schools; 5 consulates; 1 zoological garden; 1 waterworks, 1 railway facility; 19 postal facilities; 4 tram facilities; 19 ships and barges. The report also mentioned that the Wehrmacht's main command post in the Tauschenberg Palace, 19 military hospitals and a number of less significant military facilities were destroyed. Almost 200 factories were damaged, 136 seriously (including several of the Zeiss Ikon precision optical engineering works), 28 with medium to serious damage, and 35 with light damage. "British assessments ... concluded that 23 percent of the city’s industrial buildings were seriously damaged and that 56 per cent of the non-industrial buildings (exclusive of dwellings) had been heavily damaged. Of the total number of dwelling units in the city proper, 78,000 were regarded as demolished, 27,700 temporarily uninhabitable but ultimately repairable, and 64,500 readily repairable from minor damage. This later assessment indicated that 80 per cent of the city’s housing units had undergone some degree of damage and that 50 per cent of the dwellings had been demolished or seriously damaged."

Over 1000 British bombers attacked Cologne, Germany, devastating 600 acres, including hundreds of factories, and leaving 45,000 homeless.

You starting to get the picture?

You guys are claiming that the above killed far fewer people than what we've done in Iraq, mostly with gunfire.

SO WHERE ARE THE PHOTOS?

WHERE IS THE VIDEO?

WHERE ARE THE BODIES?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-19   19:25:07 ET  (3 images) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#413. To: BeAChooser (#412)

The allies dropped close to 3 million TONS of explosives on German targets during the war. With little or no concern for German civilian casualties.

And we dropped more on Vietnam and environs than total used during WWII by allies and axis combined.

Does that make it right?

sometimes there just aren't enough belgians

Dakmar  posted on  2007-02-19   19:35:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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