See other Pious Perverts Articles
Title: BeAChooser Bozo Count at 40 Plus and Counting - A Possible Site Record
Source:
Minerva
URL Source: http://freedom4um.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=45820&Disp=409#C409
Published: Feb 19, 2007
Author: Minerva
Post Date: 2007-02-19 21:59:28 by Minerva
Keywords: None
Views: 23861
Comments: 375
Last night I took a guess at Beachy's bozo count. Today he spilled the beans and indicated that the number I guessed, between 40 and 50, was substantially correct. What does this mean? Well .... it means he is a piss poor excuse for excuse for an advocate. Nobody takes him serious. This is probably why Goldi booted him.
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#106. To: Nostalgia (#100)
You know, it could be made useful. Just make him a dustmop suit, and let him post in a room that needs the floors cleaned.....
The fucker's maniacal with that ROTFLOL! It's downright creepy.
 | Gold and silver are real money, paper is but a promise. |
#107. To: BeAChooser (#103)
You would have absolutely nothing to talk about if you were not distracted by that precision. As Skydrifter states, even 10,000 civilians would be a war crime. I never said that. The study was to count deaths, not count death certificates. Furthermore, as I have already stated, there are a number of people - tens of thousands minimum - whose bodies have never been found due to their being dumped in rivers or buried under rubble. And there are also large numbers of people who have not had relatives survive to note they were dead or missing. These numbers would need to be added to any totals derived from interviews of surviving relatives and neighbors. The only obfuscations are your attempts to claim the death certificates are missing, when you've been repeatedly told that issuing death certificates during chaotic times, and summarizing the number of death certificates that were issued several years and hundreds of miles after the fact, are two completely different processes. Come to think of it, there is one more obfuscation of yours. That is your complete inability to come up with any numbers of your own - just like the Administration which would greatly like the numbers to be forgotten and dismissed.
But let's not get distracted by the precision with which the study was carried out.
Why would you assume that those not asked would be any different in being able to supply death certificates than those asked had they been asked?
And in any case, whether it's 92 percent or 80%, you still have the problem of hundreds of thousands of missing death certificates. No obfuscation you make will cause that serious problem to disappear.
#108. To: BeAChooser (#104)
I said the LA Times said many times its number is too low. As in saying 5 or 6 times its number was too low, using phrases like "grossly undercounted." Not that the LA Times said the number was "grossly undercounted many times." "In any case...you still have the problem of "No obfuscation you make will cause that serious problem to disappear. It remains a sure sign of great problems with the ROTFLOL!
The supplemental appropriations for Iraq alone are well past half a trillion
And your source clearly and explicitly states many times its number is not in the least representative of the number of death certificates or the number of deaths.
Where does the LA Times explicitly use the words "many times"? It doesn't.
No, the supplemental appropriations for the WOT as a whole are past half a trillion dollars. Not for just Iraq.
hundreds of thousands of missing death certificates hundreds of billions of missing dollars. survey war."
#109. To: scrapper2, AGAviator, ALL (#105)
Be happy to, scrapper. Yes. Too bad none of those on the Congressional staffs were smart enough (or honest enough, themselves) to prompt their Congressperson to ask Burnham and Roberts about that 92% claim. Now THAT would have been interesting. Kucinich? Ron Paul? ROTFLOL! Now there's two with no agenda to promote. (sarcasm) You want an example of those of Burnham and Roberts LYING to Congress, scrapper? Here, from own your source: Where are the missing death certificates?
You, BeAChooser would testify before Congress that the Johns Hopkins' studies "are lies?"
"Let me tell you who was invited to testify before Congress on Dec. 11, 2006 -it was the 2 co-authors of the Lancet study, Dr. Gilbert Burnham, MD, and Dr. Les Roberts."
Do you think these 2 men would "lie" to Congress?
"Kucinich-Paul Congressional Hearing on Civilian Casualties in Iraq"
http://www.juancole.com/2006/12/kucinich-paul-congressional-hearing-on.html
DR. BURNHAM - "And then at the end of that survey where there was a death in the household, we asked, "By the way, do you have a death certificate?" And in 91 percent of households where this was asked, the households had death certificates. So we're confident that people were not making up deaths that didn't occur."
#110. To: AGAviator, SKYDRIFTER, ALL (#107)
Would one? I didn't say you said that. I said you assumed it. You assumed it in your calculation of 78%. It is implicit in the math. You assumed that the 13% who were not asked to provide proof (because the researchers *forgot*) were so special that they wouldn't have been able to provide even one death certificate. Wouldn't it be more likely since they were only *randomly* forgotten, that they'd be able to provide death certificates with the same regularity as those who were asked? An understanding of statistics would suggest that. But tens of thousands missing is not your problem. Your problem is hundreds and hundreds of thousands. ROTFLOL! Now you are moving on to yet another excuse. And you demonstrate again that you don't understand the methodology of the survey. They multiplied the mortality rate determined from those claiming dead by the TOTAL pre-war population of the country. Thus, they included at least some portion of dead for those who had no relatives. Furthermore, this possibility doesn't explain the discrepancy between the current John Hopkins' estimate and the missing death certificates. It could only makes the discrepancy even bigger because including this would only increase the estimated number of dead somewhat. It's not a claim, it is a fact. The LA Times article mentioned the first year as being particularly chaotic. But the first year doesn't account for half a million missing certificates. Because only 100,000 died during that time (actually the first 18 months) according to both John Hopkins first and second reports. Surely you aren't NOW claiming that the following 21 months were more chaotic than the first 18? Or are you? "Grossly undercounted" could just as easily mean 50% too low. Or a factor of two. If they meant the count was off by a factor of 5 or 6 (or 10 as John Hopkins would have us believe), they would surely have made an even stronger declaration than merely saying "grossly". Let's remind our readers how that term was actually used in the LA Times: "Iraqi officials involved in compiling the statistics say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Al Anbar in the west." But as I pointed out, to explain even half of the claimed dead in the John Hopkins' study, HALF the pre-war population of Anbar would now have to be dead and surely the rest would have to be injured. Which is totally ridiculous given the fact that NO ONE has made such a claim or proven such a slaughter. NO ONE.
As Skydrifter states, even 10,000 civilians would be a war crime.
"Why would you assume that those not asked would be any different in being able to supply death certificates than those asked had they been asked?"
I never said that.
Furthermore, as I have already stated, there are a number of people - tens of thousands minimum - whose bodies have never been found due to their being dumped in rivers or buried under rubble.
And there are also large numbers of people who have not had relatives survive to note they were dead or missing.
The only obfuscations are your attempts to claim the death certificates are missing
, when you've been repeatedly told that issuing death certificates during chaotic times,
I said the LA Times said many times its number is too low. As in saying 5 or 6 times its number was too low, using phrases like "grossly undercounted."
#111. To: BeAChooser, AGAviator, robin, christine, aristeides, leveller, bluedogtxn, Burkeman1, Brians S, SKYDRIFTER, All (#109) (Edited)
1. You are not asked to testify before Congress about Iraqi civilian deaths because you are not an expert in epidemiology. If Congress were investigating bushbotulism or trollism, then you might be called to testify as an expert. Your call letters litter up the internet highway. 2. As for your accusation that Paul and Kucinich had an agenda to promote by having these 2 men testify, you tell me, what might that "agenda" be? Drs. Roberts and Burnham had way more than enough publicity in the public domain. So you tell me - what would Congressmen Paul's and Kucinch's "agenda" be? 3. As for your example of Drs. Roberts' and Burnham's "LYING" - your uppercase machismo boldness is a scream - anyways, here's the thing oozer, these 2 professionals are both highly respected, regarded individuals in their fields of expertise. These men ARE the experts, they both are "the real thing" in epidemiology, they do not lie because they have too much riding on anything that goes out under their signatures to lie. For example these 2 men are so highly regarded that Colin Powell and Tony Blair refer to their previous studies in speeches. "...Roberts has been puzzled and disturbed by this response to his work, which stands in sharp contrast to the way the same governments responded to a similar study he led in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2000. In that case, he reported that about 1.7 million people had died during 22 months of war and, as he says, “Tony Blair and Colin Powell quoted those results time and time again without any question as to the precision or validity.” In fact the UN Security Council promptly called for the withdrawal of foreign armies from the Congo and the U.S. State Department cited his study in announcing a grant of $10 million for humanitarian aid. Roberts conducted a follow-up study in the Congo that raised the fatality estimate to three million and Tony Blair cited that figure in his address to the 2001 Labor Party conference..." http://zmagsite.zmag.org /Feb2006/davies0206.html 4. As for your ranting about death certificates - what point are you trying to make? When Iraqis produced death certificates you question why these Iraqis have the certificates to produce. And then when Iraqis do not produce death certificates you question why they do not have the certificates. Flip flop flip flop - nothing satisfies you, because you don't want to be satisfied. It's what trolls do after all - throw dust on issues to hide truth. 5. Here's the thing oozer, I don't want to repeat this to you again, so pay attention: All the death certificates issued for dead Iraqis were not housed in one single central place like the Ministry of Health in Baghad, for example, nor were death certificates issued by one single central authority. The physicians in the small towns could and would issue death certificates to Iraqi families as the need arose because of the necessity of burying a loved one in agraveyard within 24 hours due to Islamic law. That's one of the reasons why LA Times could not find tallies of death certificates to correspond to what the Iraqis showed the JH team in the cluster samples. The LA Times crew would need to take their butts to Iraq and go to the villages and towns and cities that JH's team went to, which of course the LA Times nor your pal, Mr. neocon Kaplan would dare to do. Also, though the Iraqi families in towns and cities would need to get a death certificate from their local physicians in order to be able to have their loved ones buried in grave yards, it is not likely these families would have the death certificates recorded officially with the Ministry of Health because people have been getting food rations even in 2006. And if a family reports a death officially, you lose that ration. And btw, that information comes from Dr. Les Roberts - he wrote me back after I asked him your question. You should send him a list of all your questions, bac, Dr. Roberts is quite prompt to return emails. But then again, you probably do not want Dr. Roberts to answer your questions do you, BAC.
#112. To: scrapper2, BeAChooser, AGAviator, ALL (#111)
Beachy (the laughing spam boy) might as well have everyone filtered. By his own admission here, he doesn't read what anyone else posts.
But it takes two to debate and so far I haven't even found one willing to do that. ROTFLOL! (Beachy)
Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin
#113. To: Minerva (#112)
Well that would explain why he doesn't respond to a simple direct question asked 3 times.
Beachy (the laughing spam boy) might as well have everyone filtered. By his own admission here, he doesn't read what anyone else posts.
Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is. ~George W. Bush
(About the quote: Speaking on the war in Kosovo.)
#114. To: Minerva (#0)
My bozo count is 387 so far.
#115. To: BeAChooser (#109)
With so many deaths, maybe the medical examiner is a little bit backlogged.
Where are the missing death certificates?
#116. To: BeALoser (#115) (Edited)
BeALoser: With so many deaths, maybe the medical examiner is a little bit backlogged. And also please see the information in my msg #111. Islam requires burial within 24 hours. If a physician cannot be reached easily within that time frame for a death certificate to be issued, the loved one is buried without a certificate in a place other than a grave yard.
BAC: Where are the missing death certificates?
#117. To: BeALoser (#114)
Welcome, Bealy.
Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin
#118. To: beachooser, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#110)
BUT, you Mossadite piece of shit, you don't address the War Crimes which produceded ANY of the bodies, whatever the quantity may be! There's your 'flag.' (Blue and White, no doubt.) But as I pointed out, ....
#119. To: Minerva, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#112)
We're feeding the troll; he laughs at every occurence.
#120. To: SKYDRIFTER, All (#119)
Perhaps - rather, more than likely. But I thought other 4 um posters would like to hear some of the things that Dr. Roberts emailed to me. See my post #111 and #116.
We're feeding the troll; he laughs at every occurence.
#121. To: scrapper2, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#111)
Good response. BAC deserved that one, for sure.
#122. To: scrapper2, ALL (#111)
ROTFLOL! Blah blah blah. Then explain why their survey just happened to pick a group of people of whom 92% of those claiming a death could supply a death certificate, when only a fraction of that number of death certificates seemed to have been issued in Iraq? You folks still haven't come up with a viable explanation of this. You folks would have us believe that Iraq has seen twice the number of people killed as a percentage of population as Germany did in WW2, even though the allies carpet bombed almost every major city in Germany over a four year period. You folks would have us believe that Iraq has seen as many people killed as Japan did, even though almost every major city in Japan was firebombed in WW2. It is beyond ridiculous. The simple truth is that you are willing to blindly believe a group of researchers who admit they published their study when they did to negatively affect Bush's reelection, who used people in Iraq to conduct the study that they said "hated" the Americans, who published the study in a journal that itself admits rushing the article to print to negatively influence the war effort. And now you want to claim that Kucinich and Paul have no agenda? ROTFLOL! ROTFLOL! You STILL don't understand? Did they produce death certificates? Based on whose word? The people that conducted the survey that the researchers themselves admitted "hate" the Americans? An indication that their claim of 92 percent is a lie is that only a TENTH that number of death certificates seems to have been issued during the time in question. Is that point so hard to understand, scrapper? The LA Times said they went to morgues, hospitals and the Health Ministry in various parts of Iraq in order to attempt a comprehensive investigation. Prove this. Provide us with ANYTHING that indicates that is the way it works in Iraq. What the LA Times seemed to indicate is that violent deaths get reported to morgues, hospitals and the Health Ministry. I don't think you can explain a disparity of 10 to 1 by claiming Iraqi doctors issued death certificates to people and didn't report that to anyone. I think you are grasping for straws, scrapper. Prove this. You are doing nothing but speculating. ROTFLOL! And he is speculating too. Since you don't seem to have understood my question (you admitted this at the beginning of your post), why don't you actually post the exact wording of what you claim you emailed Dr Roberts. I'd love to see it. And I'd love to see his exact response (as opposed to your interpretation of it). Dare you provide that?
2. As for your accusation that Paul and Kucinich had an agenda to promote by having these 2 men testify, you tell me, what might that "agenda" be?
3. As for your example of Drs. Roberts' and Burnham's "LYING" ... snip ... These men ARE the experts, they both are "the real thing" in epidemiology, they do not lie because they have too much riding on anything that goes out under their signatures to lie.
4. As for your ranting about death certificates - what point are you trying to make?
When Iraqis produced death certificates you question why these Iraqis have the certificates to produce.
All the death certificates issued for dead Iraqis were not housed in one single central place like the Ministry of Health in Baghad, for example, nor were death certificates issued by one single central authority.
The physicians in the small towns could and would issue death certificates to Iraqi families as the need arose because of the necessity of burying a loved one in agraveyard within 24 hours due to Islamic law.
Also, though the Iraqi families in towns and cities would need to get a death certificate from their local physicians in order to be able to have their loved ones buried in grave yards,
And btw, that information comes from Dr. Les Roberts
he wrote me back after I asked him your question.
#123. To: beachooser, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#122)
You and your spam, BAC. Trolls are good about begging food - you prove that. What was it that Hitler devised? "I defeated my [political] enemies by giving them work to do." You and your Next-Generation Nazism, there, BAC!
#124. To: SKYDRIFTER, scrapper2, Kamala, Critter, Red Jones, RickyJ, Jethro Tul, Minerva, All (#119)
he elicits educative posts from others. that's a valuable contribution to 4. :P
#125. To: BeAChooser (#104)
You tell lies that even the authors of the war no longer are willing to state publicly. No I did not, and you are lying. That is not an identical time period. Look up "identical" Look up "[the survey's] authors opined" while you're at it. There are no "missing" death certificates. The people in the survey had them, and everything else is your usual speculation and arm-waving. I don't need to, because they're not "missing" and only you allege they are. The LA Times said they could not be "compiled," not that they didn't exist. Never made that claim. I said that 4 bodies a day on average in 89 municipalties plus the country can easily bring the total past 600,000. Your mis-representations of what I say are getting sillier and sillier. I don't need to make any excuses because you've never made any point to begin with. You are simply alleging something that only you believe in. Who said anything about wanting them to get of Iraq by publicity? Only sillier and sillier you. They want Americans to get out of Iraq by inflicting enough casualties on Americans that the toll will become unacceptable, to everybody except the likes of you who want other people to fight your battles. And I'm sure you'll be the first to admit how jihadists are soooo reasonable, you sillier and sillier, lamer and lamer numbskull. I did not do any such thing. I cited Basra, as did Cole, to give an example of the order of magnitude of deaths that never make it into the media. You really are getting downright stupid. Nobody said 1 death an hour for the entire time since the invasion. It appears the only thing you have to offer is to distort what someone else says. I never said that, liar. It appears your entire arguments have collapsed for you to make such grandiose and unfounded claims. I don't need any death certificates, because the death certificates are with the people contacted in the survey. All the other death certificates you go on about are figments of your warped imagination. Your biggest bullshit statement yet. Name one person who agrees with you. Sillier and sillier. Lamer and lamer. You clearly can't read even basic English. I said that even if they killed 100,000 that would mean a cost of $10 million for each death. If you want to say they killed less, then it goes to $20 or $30 million cost for each death.
You are having so much difficulty with what I'm pointing out about those studies and its authors.
You claimed that the reason the LATimes couldn't find the death certificates of some 550,000 Iraqis is that "many more Iraqis are believed to have been killed but not counted because of serious lapses in recording deaths in the chaotic first year after the invasion".
No I didn't. That is just one of several factors,
You most certainly did suggest that was a primary factor.
The surveys did not cover identical time periods,
FALSE. The second survey includes the period of the first survey
And the first survey had a confidence interval where its authors opined that 100,000 seemed to be a reasonable minimum.
FALSE FALSE FALSE. The minimum of the 95% confidence range was 8,000.
"Simply put, chaos in the first year cannot explain the missing HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of death certificates that MUST exist"
Diversion and straw man.
No, it's an argument that strikes at the heart of your claim the John Hopkins survey is believable. Which is why you are clearly having so much trouble dealing with it.
Which is why you keep putting forward one explanation after another only to discover each explanation does not explain. You can't explain the missing death certificates by claiming the first year was chaos.
Now you are finding it necessary to claim that every major city in Iraq has been more violent on a daily basis since the beginning of the war than the media has even noted for only a few short specific periods in only a couple of cities.
Your excuses are getting sillier and sillier.
The insurgency does not play by your rules.
See what I mean about getting sillier and sillier? You now want us to believe that insurgents wouldn't use what is clearly the most powerful leverage possible to get America out of Iraq.
Do you honestly believe the world would stand for our remaining if the insurgents showed proof that we'd committed genocide in Anbar by killing HALF of its population? Of course not ... so it defies reason blah blah blah.
Actually, after finding your Anbar suggestion didn't hold water, you offered Basra as an explanation, claiming that 1 person per hour was dying (based solely on ONE comment by ONE person a year ago).
I simply showed that even if we assumed 1 death an hour for the entire time since the invasion, it would only amount to 28,000 ... proving how ridiculous your Basra excuse was.
No, after your Anbar and Basra arguments collapsed, you moved on to claiming (without any proof) that 4 bodies per day had been dying in 90 cities in Iraq every day, day in and day out, since the beginning of the invasion.
If that were true, you could account for perhaps 400,000 deaths. But its ALL based on nothing but speculation. You still don't have the death certificates. You still don't have ANY proof of that many bodies. And you still haven't explained how John Hopkins just happened to pick a group of people for their survey of whom 92 percent could supply death certificates on demand.
Sure you did. We all watched your theory evolve on this very thread, AGAviator. It's no use claiming otherwise. All one has to do is reread this read to see that I'm right.
The war has cost more than $1 Trillion,
No, it has not....For one, it totally over looks the positive financial benefits of invading and winning in Iraq. It is NET cost/benefit that will matter in the long run.
Now you make the FALSE claim that the American military directly killed those 100,000 Iraqis. The truth is that most of the deaths in Iraq are directly a result of terrorist, insurgent and secular violence. Iraqi on Iraqi violence. Even the John Hopkins' researchers have said as much.
#126. To: BeALoser (#114)
I demand the Bozo certificates!
My bozo count is 387 so far.
#127. To: scrapper2, skydrifter (#111)
BAM! Excellent post! Slam dunk.
And btw, that information comes from Dr. Les Roberts - he wrote me back after I asked him your question. You should send him a list of all your questions, bac, Dr. Roberts is quite prompt to return emails. But then again, you probably do not want Dr. Roberts to answer your questions do you, BAC.
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition
"If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may know peace." -Thomas Paine
In a CorporoFascist capitalist society, there is no money in peace, freedom, or a healthy population, and therefore, no incentive to achieve these.
- - IndieTX
- - IndieTX
#128. To: scrapper2 (#111) (Edited)
5. Here's the thing oozer, I don't want to repeat this to you again, so pay attention: All the death certificates issued for dead Iraqis were not housed in one single central place like the Ministry of Health in Baghad, for example, nor were death certificates issued by one single central authority. The physicians in the small towns could and would issue death certificates to Iraqi families as the need arose Also, though the Iraqi families in towns and cities would need to get a death certificate from their local physicians in order to be able to have their loved ones buried in grave yards, it is not likely these families would have the death certificates recorded officially with the Ministry of Health because people have been getting food rations even in 2006. And if a family reports a death officially, you lose that ration. Excellent post. And corroborates just what I've been saying all along - that there is a difference between getting a death certificate [survey] and a government agency having totals of death certificates at the central government level in Baghdad [LA Times]. Physicians in Iraq can also issue death certificates in addition to governmental agencies. The death certificates the LA Times was trying to collate were solely from governmental agencies, not from physicians.
As for your ranting about death certificates - what point are you trying to make? When Iraqis produced death certificates you question why these Iraqis have the certificates to produce. And then when Iraqis do not produce death certificates you question why they do not have the certificates. Flip flop flip flop - nothing satisfies you, because you don't want to be satisfied. It's what trolls do after all - throw dust on issues to hide truth.
#129. To: Minerval, scrapper2, BeAChooser, Skydrifter, diana, Christine, Red Jones (#112)
Scrapper2 just blew Looser out of the water with his reference that Iraqi doctors also issue death certificates in addition to hospitals and morgues. Looser has been going on and on with his lies and distortions about "missing death certificates" for months on end. Probably posts in the hundreds about this non-issue. Combined with his/her trademarked spam, "ROTFLOL's," and grandiose proclamations of victory. Will (s)he be honest enough to admit it and stop pretending that it is an issue? Never. Expect more of the same. However for everyone else, this thread is a prime example of BAC's intellectual dishonesty. For his non-existent "readers," he claims to be posting to [because he will not convince anybody on this site], it will convincingly demonstrate once and for his/her lack of credibility.
Beachy (the laughing spam boy) might as well have everyone filtered. By his own admission here, he doesn't read what anyone else posts.
#130. To: scrapper2 (#116)
Are you saying they can't get buried in grave yards without death certificates? Seems reasonable to prevent people from burying individuals they're guilty of killing themselves.
If a physician cannot be reached easily within that time frame for a death certificate to be issued, the loved one is buried without a certificate in a place other than a grave yard.
#131. To: scrapper2 (#111) (Edited)
True to form, the dishonest troll now demands further proof after you've debunked his claims and his grandiose proclamations. As usual, it's not worth wasting links on him/her, because all (s)he will do is demand more links. That's how a troll operates. However for you, here's the following Link: Iraq's Hospitals Are New Killing Fields As a result, more and more Iraqis are avoiding hospitals, making it even harder to preserve life in a city where death is seemingly everywhere. Gunshot victims are now being treated by nurses in makeshift emergency rooms set up in homes.... The reluctance of Sunnis to enter hospitals is making it increasingly difficult to assess the number of casualties caused by sectarian violence. During a recent attack on Shiite pilgrims, a top Sunni political leader accused the Shiite-led government of ignoring large numbers of Sunnis who he said were also killed and wounded in the clash, though he was unable to offer even a rough estimate of the Sunni casualties...In Baghdad these days, not even the hospitals are safe. In growing numbers, sick and wounded Sunnis have been abducted from public hospitals operated by Iraq's Shiite-run Health Ministry and later killed, according to patients, families of victims, doctors and government officials.
#132. To: BeAChooser (#110) (Edited)
Are you claiming one? If not, why are you obfuscating? Don't put words into my mouth. No I didn't. As usual, your only communication is lies and distortions. Wouldn't it be more likely that all you do is try to make other people say things they didn't, instead of addressing what they actually did? No it is not. You still haven't come to grips with the magnitude of things like "gross undercount," and "did not count deaths outside Baghdad in the first year," and "Iraqi doctors issue death certificates." So they didn't count everybody. What did I just finish telling you, airhead? Plus, they did not count *some portion* of the dead whose bodies were not found. There are no missing death certificates. Cite someone to support you. They're not missing. That's not what the John Hopkins survey said. I don't claim anything to a troll. I simply point out where you are trying to muddy up the issue. No it doesn't, liar. "Gross" means "very large." "Two" is not "very large." Says who? You? As I've said before, if they knew exactly how much they were off, they would have the actual number. Let's remind our readers that Iraqi doctors can issue death certificates, and the "Iraqi officials" the LA Times was talking to are hundreds of miles away from the places where the deaths took place, in a war zone. No one except you says that "HALF the pre-war population of Anbar would now have to be dead." Juan Cole says, and I say, that an average of 4 excess deaths a day throughout Iraq will attain the 600,000 comfortably. You're right, NO ONE else has. Just you have. Which shows why you're totally ridiculous, and can only communicate by making totally ridiculous statements that other people never said.
As Skydrifter states, even 10,000 civilians would be a war crime.
Would one?
I didn't say you said that. I said you assumed it. You assumed it in your calculation of 78%. It is implicit in the math.
You assumed that the 13% who were not asked to provide proof (because the researchers *forgot*) were so special that they wouldn't have been able to provide even one death certificate.
Wouldn't it be more likely since they were only *randomly* forgotten
But tens of thousands missing is not your problem. Your problem is hundreds and hundreds of thousands.
And there are also large numbers of people who have not had relatives survive to note they were dead or missing.
ROTFLOL! blah blah blah Thus, they included at least *some portion* of dead for those who had no relatives.
Furthermore, this possibility doesn't explain the discrepancy between the current John Hopkins' estimate and the missing death certificates.
It's not a claim, it is a fact.
The LA Times article mentioned the first year as being particularly chaotic.
But the first year doesn't account for half a million missing certificates.
Because only 100,000 died during that time (actually the first 18 months) according to both John Hopkins first and second reports.
Surely you aren't NOW claiming that the following 21 months were more chaotic than the first 18? Or are you?
I said the LA Times said many times its number is too low. As in saying 5 or 6 times its number was too low, using phrases like "grossly undercounted."
"Grossly undercounted" could just as easily mean 50% too low. Or a factor of two.
If they meant the count was off by a factor of 5 or 6 (or 10 as John Hopkins would have us believe), they would surely have made an even stronger declaration than merely saying "grossly".
Let's remind our readers
But as I pointed out, to explain even half of the claimed dead in the John Hopkins' study, HALF the pre-war population of Anbar would now have to be dead and surely the rest would have to be injured.
Which is totally ridiculous given the fact that NO ONE has made such a claim or proven such a slaughter. NO ONE.
#133. To: AGAviator (#129)
yep. as i said earlier, he elicits good educational (and often witty) posts from everyone else. that's the only value he contributes.
For his non-existent "readers," he claims to be posting to [because he will not convince anybody on this site], it will convincingly demonstrate once and for his/her lack of credibility.
#134. To: christine (#133)
Thre's got to be something just a tad off with somebody who goes to a website where almost nobody likes him/her, then spends all his/her time arguing about posts (s)he considers "kooky" or "ridiculous." "ROTFLOL!!!"
#135. To: christine (#124)
I concur. I've learned a lot about 9-11 and about what's going on in that meat grinder over there by watching folks beat the crap out of Loser. If he ever goes off the payroll, it would be a shame. We should consider getting together a little kitty for the poor boy. Pass the hat. Cheers. ;P
he elicits educative posts from others. that's a valuable contribution to 4. :P
Money trumps . . . uh . . . . peace . . sometimes. - GW Bush
#136. To: AGAviator, ALL (#125)
You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. You want to play word games, that's ok with me. Too bad that without having 4 bodies a day dying in 90 cities since the beginning of the invasion you don't even get close to the 600,000 figure. Not even close. But if you want to play word games, that's ok with me. Right. All you do with your word games is demonstrate that you don't understand survey statistics and the meaning of a representative sample. Oh that's right, you don't believe in cost/benefit analysis. You said "In other words, the greatest, most powerful, military machine in history can only kill fewer than 3 people for every one of their own who gets hurt or killed." But truth be told, you aren't claiming they killed 100,000. You are claiming they have killed more than 655,000. You see, your word games will get you nowhere, AGAviator.
"You claimed that the reason the LATimes couldn't find the death certificates of some 550,000 Iraqis is that "many more Iraqis are believed to have been killed but not counted because of serious lapses in recording deaths in the chaotic first year after the invasion".
No I didn't. That is just one of several factors,
"You most certainly did suggest that was a primary factor."
No I did not, and you are lying.
The surveys did not cover identical time periods,
"FALSE. The second survey includes the period of the first survey"
That is not an identical time period. Look up "identical"
And the first survey had a confidence interval where its authors opined that 100,000 seemed to be a reasonable minimum.
"FALSE FALSE FALSE. The minimum of the 95% confidence range was 8,000."
Look up "[the survey's] authors opined" while you're at it.
There are no "missing" death certificates. The people in the survey had them, and everything else is your usual speculation and arm-waving.
"Now you are finding it necessary to claim that every major city in Iraq has been more violent on a daily basis since the beginning of the war than the media has even noted for only a few short specific periods in only a couple of cities."
Never made that claim. I said that 4 bodies a day on average in 89 municipalties plus the country can easily bring the total past 600,000.
"See what I mean about getting sillier and sillier? You now want us to believe that insurgents wouldn't use what is clearly the most powerful leverage possible to get America out of Iraq."
Who said anything about wanting them to get of Iraq by publicity?
"Actually, after finding your Anbar suggestion didn't hold water, you offered Basra as an explanation, claiming that 1 person per hour was dying (based solely on ONE comment by ONE person a year ago)."
I did not do any such thing. I cited Basra, as did Cole, to give an example of the order of magnitude of deaths that never make it into the media.
"I simply showed that even if we assumed 1 death an hour for the entire time since the invasion, it would only amount to 28,000 ... proving how ridiculous your Basra excuse was."
You really are getting downright stupid. Nobody said 1 death an hour for the entire time since the invasion.
"No, after your Anbar and Basra arguments collapsed, you moved on to claiming (without any proof) that 4 bodies per day had been dying in 90 cities in Iraq every day, day in and day out, since the beginning of the invasion."
I never said that, liar. It appears your entire arguments have collapsed for you to make such grandiose and unfounded claims.
"If that were true, you could account for perhaps 400,000 deaths. But its ALL based on nothing but speculation. You still don't have the death certificates. You still don't have ANY proof of that many bodies. And you still haven't explained how John Hopkins just happened to pick a group of people for their survey of whom 92 percent could supply death certificates on demand."
I don't need any death certificates, because the death certificates are with the people contacted in the survey. All the other death certificates you go on about are figments of your warped imagination.
"No, it has not....For one, it totally over looks the positive financial benefits of invading and winning in Iraq. It is NET cost/benefit that will matter in the long run."
Sillier and sillier. Lamer and lamer.
"Now you make the FALSE claim that the American military directly killed those 100,000 Iraqis. The truth is that most of the deaths in Iraq are directly a result of terrorist, insurgent and secular violence. Iraqi on Iraqi violence. Even the John Hopkins' researchers have said as much."
You clearly can't read even basic English. I said that even if they killed 100,000
#137. To: AGAviator, ALL (#128)
Prove it. And prove they issued anything close to 550,000 death certificates (the number missing).
Physicians in Iraq can also issue death certificates in addition to governmental agencies.
#138. To: AGAviator, ALL (#129)
Would readers like some examples of AGAviator's intellectual dishonesty ... besides defending as sound the methodology used by John Hopkins to estimate that 655,000 Iraqis have died since the invasion began? Here were some of the views AGAviator espoused over at LibertyPost the past year or so to me (I'm sure he posted lots of other gems to others): - There would be no benefits from turning Iraq into a vibrant, wealthy, pro-western, anti-terrorist democracy. None whatsoever ... - GDP is not a measure of economic health (contrary to the opinion of economists worldwide). - He claims to supports the US military even though he claims they are covering up the deaths of more than 655,000 Iraqis (yeah, right...) - 250,000 tons of munitions have been looted in Iraq (although he can't seem to prove more a few tens of thousands of tons is actually missing). - His alternative to freeing Kuwait and invading Iraq/Afghanistan was to send me over there. - Ron Brown died of blunt force trauma in an accidental plane crash - This graph shows housing prices dropped 16% between 2005 and 2006. In fact, just visit LibertyPost. You will find AGAviator filling thread after thread with intellectual dishonesty, many of them regarding the John Hopkins' studies.
However for everyone else, this thread is a prime example of BAC's intellectual dishonesty.
#139. To: All (#137)
4. Use a straw man. Find or create a seeming element of your opponent's argument which you can easily knock down to make yourself look good and the opponent to look bad. Either make up an issue you may safely imply exists based on your interpretation of the opponent/opponent arguments/situation, or select the weakest aspect of the weakest charges. Amplify their significance and destroy them in a way which appears to debunk all the charges, real and fabricated alike, while actually avoiding discussion of the real issues. Teamwork...BLoviator and Ooser are at it agains creating strawmen and playing off each other.
You can often spot the disinfo types at work here by the unique application of "higher standards" of discussion than necessarily warranted. They will demand that those presenting arguments or concepts back everything up with the same level of expertise as a professor, researcher, or investigative writer. Anything less renders anydiscussion meaningless and unworthy in their opinion, and anyone who disagrees is obviously stupid -- and they generally put it in exactly those terms.
"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi
#140. To: AGAviator, ALL (#131)
NOTHING is said in that article about doctors operating outside the morgues and hospitals issuing death certificates ... or then failing to notify any authority of the death. In this country, a doctor would lose his license for doing that. You need to prove that doctors have been religiously issuing death certificates when people die. You need to prove that doctors acting outside the hospitals, morgues and health ministry, have issued death certificates to roughly 92% of the families who have lost someone in Iraq. And then failed to notify any morgue, hospital or the health ministry of the death. Because if you can't do that, we have good reasons to doubt the John Hopkins study. It claimed that 92 percent of those with dead family members were able to provide a death certificate. Yet the LATimes could only come up with about 50,000 recorded by morgues, hospitals and the Health Ministry. Leaving some 550,000 missing.
Link: Iraq's Hospitals Are New Killing Fields
#141. To: AGAviator (#130)
b. Seems reasonable to prevent people from burying individuals they're guilty of killing themselves. a. Yes, that is what Dr. Roberts told me is a requirement in Iraq. b. Good observation.
a. Are you saying they can't get buried in grave yards without death certificates?
#142. To: BeAChooser, AGAviator, angle, randge, christine, Minerva, innieway, SKYDRIFTER, Diana, Red Jones, Indie TX, BeALoser, Critter, Kamala, critter, Ricky J, Jethro Tull, robin, Honway, aristeides, bluedogtxn, leveller, Burkeman1, All (#122) (Edited)
The following is Dr. Roberts' email response to my asking him about the differing number of death certificates that the LA Times discovered by contacting morgues and hospitals etc. as opposed to what his team found in their cluster sampling. This is a fair question! a) only ~40,000 deaths were recorded by the system in 2002. Thus, we think it was only about 30% complete before the war and what would make us think it would become more complete during the war? b) As my Iraqi colleagues describe it, many doctors can issue death certificates.....thus it is not as if most bodies are going to morgues. Especially in the smaller cities, people just need a certificate to put a body in a grave yard and just want that form from any doctor. c) Two Iraqi doctors have heard me speak recently and came up after to point out that people have been getting food rations even in 2006. If a family reports a death officially, you lose that ration. d) I encourage you to find a few Iraqis and have them make a couple of phone calls and give you a list of the deaths in some friend's home street over the past few months. I promise you that most of them will not be identifiable on the Iraqbodycount dataset. I do not have access to the official Iraq Government data. The UN pointed out that in July of last year the system recorded exactly 0 violent deaths in Anbar Province. We lost a couple US soldiers there that month with a couple dozen seriously wounded. I hope this helps. Les
I'd love to see his exact response (as opposed to your interpretation of it). Dare you provide that?
#143. To: Red Jones (#102)
I don't know about that... I posed serious questions here, and his response (as usual) was ROTFLOL. In my opinion, NO ATTEMPT to answer the questions is the same as a "victory". HE CANNOT, AND WILL NOT ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS - BECAUSE HE HAS NO ANSWERS.
You can't beat him.
No matter how noble the objectives of a government; if it blurs decency and kindness, cheapens human life, and breeds ill will and suspicion - it is an EVIL government. Eric Hoffer
#144. To: AGAviator, ALL (#132)
Not obfuscation. Clarification. I want to find out what you actually consider a war crime. You indicated 10,000 above. But would 9,000 qualify? 8,000? 5,000? 500? 5? 1? Where do you draw the line in your hyperbole, AGAviator? I'm not putting words in your mouth. I'm pointing out to folk what that math you did CLEARLY implies. That NONE of 13% who didn't answer the question would be able to supply a death certificate. You are the one who has claimed to be the math genius. Didn't you know that when you did that little math calculation? Or perhaps your understanding of that calculation is about the same as your understanding of that graph I posted above on the change in housing prices year to year. The math doesn't lie, AGAviator. You tried to tell us that only 78% of Iraqis claiming deaths would have to provide a death certificate for the John Hopkins report to be valid. That number inherently assumes that the 13% that were not asked to supply death certificates would not have been able to do so. Go ahead and play word games, that's ok with me. Yes it is. This is from the second report: "Since the 2006 survey included the period of time contained in the 2004 survey, we could compare these two results for the time frame from January 2002 through August 2004. In 2004, we estimated that somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths occurred from the time of the invasion until August 2004. Using data from the 2006 survey, we estimate that the number of excess deaths during that time were about 112,000." Go ahead and play word games. That's ok with me. Play word games. That's ok with me. Let's google "grossly undercount". Here's the first few hits: http://www.adrants.com/2004/02/study-finds-media-usage-grossly-undercoun.php "Unfortunately, those syndicated research tools are grossly undercounting actual media usage according to a new study from Ball State University's Center For Media Design. The study followed 101 people around for a day observing actual media usage and then compared it to usage determined by written diary and phone survey. Computer usage is undercounted by 205 percent, online by 169 percent, television by 164 percent, books by 100 percent, magazines by 75 percent, radio by 74 percent and newspapers by 13 percent." http://talk.livedaily.com/showthread.php?t=565759 "If the revision for the 12 -months ending in March 2006 does produce the now expected upward revision of 810,000, that will mean that job growth in the period was about 40 percent stronger than the government's previous estimates. "It looks as if the monthly numbers grossly undercounted the true number of jobs created," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, a Princeton, N.J. research firm." http://www.nypost.com/seven/02082007/news/regionalnews/population_surprise_for_jews_regionalnews_rita_delfiner.htm "America's Jewish population is far larger than previous estimates, a new survey shows. There are as many as 7.4 million Jews in the United States, researchers at Brandeis University said yesterday. They said the last authoritative survey was taken in 2000-01 and erroneously put the figure then at 5.2 million Jews. ... snip ... The Brandeis researchers said the earlier survey grossly undercounted non-Orthodox families, did not include "substantial numbers of young and middle-aged individuals" and was wrong to say the Jewish-American population had been in a state of decline since 1990." Or how about this one, http://www.oasisclinic.org/10_PUBLICATIONS.html "the population of opioid-drug users may be grossly undercounted, because some surveys have found up to three times more illicit drug users in particular regions than commonly estimated" So it seems that no matter what the subject, grossly undercounted can indeed mean a much smaller discrepancy than the one you would have us believe. Prove it. And prove that they then aren't under any obligation to pass on a copy of that death certificate to authorities, as they are here in the United States. Play word games all you want. YOU offered Anbar as an explanation for why there are so many death certificates missing. Not I. I simply showed that even if you used Anbar to explain only half the number of death certificates that are missing, then half the population of Anbar would have to be dead now. A ridiculous assertion ... hence Anbar cannot begin to account for the number of missing death certificates. But earlier you denied claiming that 4 excess deaths a day have occurred in every remotely large city in Iraq since the beginning of the war. Yet that assumption is necessary to even account for 400,000 of the deaths. Make up your mind, AGAviator. Is all of Iraq more violent than even the anti-war folks were claiming Baghdad was at its peak violence, or not? Our readers should keep in mind this: As noted by the author of this, "The claim is 654,965 excess deaths caused by the war from March 2003 through July 2006. That's 40 months, or 1200 days, so an average of 546 deaths per day. To get an average of 546 deaths per day means that there must have been either many hundreds of days with 1000 or more deaths per day (example: 200 days with 1000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1000 days with an average of 450 deaths), or tens of days with at least 10,000 or more deaths per day (example: 20 days with 10,000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1180 days with an average of 381 deaths). So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?" Play word games all you want, that's ok with me.
As Skydrifter states, even 10,000 civilians would be a war crime.
"Would one?"
Are you claiming one? If not, why are you obfuscating?
"I didn't say you said that. I said you assumed it. You assumed it in your calculation of 78%. It is implicit in the math."
Don't put words into my mouth.
"You assumed that the 13% who were not asked to provide proof (because the researchers *forgot*) were so special that they wouldn't have been able to provide even one death certificate."
No I didn't. As usual, your only communication is lies and distortions.
"Wouldn't it be more likely since they were only *randomly* forgotten"
Wouldn't it be more likely that all you do is try to make other people say things they didn't, instead of addressing what they actually did?
"Because only 100,000 died during that time (actually the first 18 months) according to both John Hopkins first and second reports."
That's not what the John Hopkins survey said.
"Surely you aren't NOW claiming that the following 21 months were more chaotic than the first 18? Or are you?"
I don't claim anything to a troll. I simply point out where you are trying to muddy up the issue.
""Grossly undercounted" could just as easily mean 50% too low. Or a factor of two."
No it doesn't, liar.
"Gross" means "very large." "Two" is not "very large."
Let's remind our readers that Iraqi doctors can issue death certificates
"But as I pointed out, to explain even half of the claimed dead in the John Hopkins' study, HALF the pre-war population of Anbar would now have to be dead and surely the rest would have to be injured."
No one except you says that "HALF the pre-war population of Anbar would now have to be dead. Juan Cole says, "
and I say, that an average of 4 excess deaths a day throughout Iraq will attain the 600,000 comfortably.
"Which is totally ridiculous given the fact that NO ONE has made such a claim or proven such a slaughter. NO ONE."
You're right, NO ONE else has. Just you have. Which shows why you're totally ridiculous, and can only communicate by making totally ridiculous statements that other people never said.
#145. To: christine, ALL (#133)
Says christine, who admitted earlier that she'd bozo'd herself so she wouldn't have to read my posts. Now how can someone who only sees half the thread make the above statement? Indeed, what is it about so many FD4UM members that they have to bozo themselves from my posts ... when all I'm posting are sourced facts and sound logic? Do they fear sourced facts that dispute their world-view? Does sound logic make them uncomfortable? That would appear to be the case.
yep. as i said earlier, he elicits good educational (and often witty) posts from everyone else. that's the only value he contributes.
#146. To: innieway, Red Jones (#143)
correct. only he himself thinks he "won." endurance he does have though. gotta give him that.
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