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Pious Perverts
See other Pious Perverts Articles

Title: BeAChooser Bozo Count at 40 Plus and Counting - A Possible Site Record
Source: Minerva
URL Source: http://freedom4um.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=45820&Disp=409#C409
Published: Feb 19, 2007
Author: Minerva
Post Date: 2007-02-19 21:59:28 by Minerva
Keywords: None
Views: 23337
Comments: 375

Last night I took a guess at Beachy's bozo count. Today he spilled the beans and indicated that the number I guessed, between 40 and 50, was substantially correct.

Beachy Spills the Beans

What does this mean? Well .... it means he is a piss poor excuse for excuse for an advocate. Nobody takes him serious. This is probably why Goldi booted him.

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#42. To: Diana, ALL (#33)

"Diana, you forgot to mention that you said this:"

"Perhaps you haven't heard, but often in wartime when people are killed, their deaths are not always documented by photograpshs, film, video or even by death certificates."

"In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later. I'm surprised you aren't aware of this practice."

This has to be some sort of stunt to get me to answer because otherwise it would imply........

You're NUTS!!

What do you think I wrote above ?? Just that!

Really, Diana, you need to read complete sentences before responding. Here is the rest of the sentence you partially quoted ... the part you forgot to mention to your readers and then again ignored in your response to my complaint.

"to explain away the discrepancy of the 600,000 or so missing bodies, missing death certificates, and missing news reports."

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-20   13:28:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#43. To: Red Jones, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Diana, Kamala, All (#5)

BAC is the guy on the left.

BAC has provided facts confirming that this is his picture.

I've long accused BAC of being queer; but that's disgusting.

Where did BAC confirm that's his picture?


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-02-20   13:30:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#44. To: Diana, ALL (#35)

Again, I'm surprised you're not aware of this practice, which occurs in ALL wars.

So do you think that's an explanation why some 600,000 bodies, death certificates and news reports are missing in this war? Do you think someone is out there disposing of the bodies after our soldiers kill them, Diana? If so, who is this someone? How many someone's are there? And how have our soldiers failed to notice what's going on?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-20   13:31:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#45. To: BeAChooser (#44)

Picking on the ladies, again, eh BAC?

Is that part of your "queer" agenda?


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-02-20   13:33:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#46. To: angle, Destro, ALL (#41)

Your agendas are quite simply to disrupt any cogent thread with your nonsense.

Oh, is that what this thread is? A cogent thread? ROTFLOL!

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-20   13:34:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#47. To: Brian S (#7)

It is pretty fucking sad that this, of all forums, has come to this 'back and forth sniping tripe'.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMEN! Then again...perhaps that's the 'agenda'.

Remember...G-d saved more animals than people on the ark. www.siameserescue.org

who knows what evil  posted on  2007-02-20   13:43:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: BeAChooser, SKYDRIFTER, Red Jones, tom007, Destro, christine, All (#44)

I would like to know how you got all this information, all this insight, all these "facts" in this post of yours:

"Actually I simply asked her questions. She tried to explain away the fact that there is NO physical evidence to support the allegation that 655,000 Iraqis were killed in Iraq through July of last year by stating "In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later." Now maybe you don't see that as assertion that our soldiers must be involved in covering up the bulk of that death but I think most people will. And I think most will understand my logic in suggesting it would take quite a few soldiers to hide all that evidence and keep reporters away. And soldiers being soldiers, I think most will agree that by now all soldiers in Iraq would know this is going on. In which case, they must be keeping it quiet. Which can only make them accessories to the crime. Right?

She certainly implied someone connected to our government is doing the burying. If not our soldiers, WHO? And how could anyone hide what they were doing from our soldiers? Sorry, but I think it is highly illogical to believe that this scale of attrocity (which, by the way, it greater than the one Saddam was accused of) is going on without our soldiers being aware of it and therefore complicit."

from this short post of mine:

"Uh....

Perhaps you haven't heard, but often in wartime when people are killed, their deaths are not always documented by photograpshs, film, video or even by death certificates.

In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later. I'm surprised you aren't aware of this practice."

I would appreciate an explanation of how you derived all these "facts", these interpretations, from my short post above, thanks.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   13:43:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#49. To: Diana, ALL (#48)

I would appreciate an explanation of how you derived all these "facts", these interpretations, from my short post above, thanks.

Because you didn't post what you posted in isolation. You posted in response to my assertion that 600,000 or so bodies, death certificates and eyewitnesses are missing. You posted that as a way of explaining those away. Now if you are not implying that someone in Iraq is quietly disposing of hundreds of thousands of bodies, just say so Diana, and I will be happy to apologize for misinterpreting your remarks.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-20   13:53:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#50. To: BeAChooser, Red Jones (#49)

bob and weave and duck.....

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   13:58:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#51. To: Diana, ALL (#50)

bob and weave and duck.....

Let's just see who is bobbing and weaving ...

If you are not suggesting that someone in Iraq has disposed of half a million or more bodies without any record of doing so, just say so Diana, and I will be happy to apologize for misinterpreting your remarks.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-20   14:19:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#52. To: Red Jones, Diana (#38) (Edited)

You are mistaken Destro. BAC has never lost an argument.

My statement does not take any sides either way. I come out against this cliquish almost Freerepublic like behavior.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-02-20   16:20:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#53. To: angle (#41)

Neither he nor you are here to have legitimate discussion. Your agendas are quite simply to disrupt any cogent thread with your nonsense. Why bother debunking nonsense.

We/I am?? Then provide an example of such disruption - stating an opinion you guys don't like does not equal disruption.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-02-20   16:22:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#54. To: BeAChooser, Diana (#44)

Chickens coming home to roost on America when America used to champion using this kind of quasi statistic gathering when she wanted to show Serbia as being genocidal monsters. I like that America is now made to answer using the same kind of procedure gathering for the numbers.

This is not a defense for American policy in Iraq which I am against and detest.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-02-20   16:25:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#55. To: Destro (#53)

I already bothered to provide an example. One you denied. No more time shall be wasted on your posts.

"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi

angle  posted on  2007-02-20   16:51:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#56. To: BeAChooser, rowdee, Red Jones, Scrapper 2, all (#42)

Really, Diana, you need to read complete sentences before responding. Here is the rest of the sentence you partially quoted ... the part you forgot to mention to your readers and then again ignored in your response to my complaint.

"to explain away the discrepancy of the 600,000 or so missing bodies, missing death certificates, and missing news reports."

I never said that, ever. Please find where I actually posted "to explain away the discrepency of the 600,000 or so missing bodies, missing death certificates, and the missing news reports" I don't recall ever having said that, and it doesn't even sound like language I would use. Are you making up falsehoods here?

I would appreicate if you find and document where I said that, perhaps it would refresh my memory. And please don't come back with some lame brain reason why you won't do it, since you are now accusing me of something I never even said, unless I said it a long time ago and don't remember it, but I highly doubt that.

So proof please, in order to boost your own credibility.

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   17:30:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#57. To: BeAChooser (#42)

Here is the rest of the sentence you partially quoted ...

Partially quoted? Is this some new trick term you thought up?

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   17:35:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#58. To: BeAChooser (#44)

Do you think someone is out there disposing of the bodies after our soldiers kill them, Diana? If so, who is this someone? How many someone's are there?

Isn't it defamation of character to attribute false quotes to people? And I'm still waiting for your explanation of what a "partial quote" is.

Your imagination ran wild with that one post I made to you that I've had to quote back several times. Are you delusional perhaps? Do you hear voices that tell you things?

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   17:39:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#59. To: BeAChooser, rowdee (#51)

If you are not suggesting that someone in Iraq has disposed of half a million or more bodies without any record of doing so, just say so Diana, and I will be happy to apologize for misinterpreting your remarks.

Again, this is the entire post I wrote where you have pulled out all sorts of meanings and interpretations including my saying a mass genocide and cover up is taking place by our US govt. This is my entire quote that you have been monkeying around with, in it's entirety. And there are no "partial quotes" in it.

So, for like the tenth time, here it is, again:

"Uh....

Perhaps you haven't heard, but often in wartime when people are killed, their deaths are not always documented by photograpshs, film, video or even by death certificates.

In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later. I'm surprised you aren't aware of this practice."

Diana  posted on  2007-02-20   17:46:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#60. To: who knows what evil, Brian S (#47)

Brian S (#7)

It is pretty fucking sad that this, of all forums, has come to this 'back and forth sniping tripe'.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMEN! Then again...perhaps that's the 'agenda'.

come on, guys...back and forth sniping happens on all forums. board content and posts vary hour to hour depending on the individuals online and the articles and threads they're interested in posting to. this particular thread was posted by one person here. it doesn't set the tone or agenda for the entire forum forever and ever. sheesh. i guess i could be an ogress and start deleting all snipes. ;)

christine  posted on  2007-02-20   18:36:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#61. To: Diana (#56)

Di, dear lady, just tell the bastard to go fuck himself and get it over with!

Being the nice sweet lady you are makes this turd-faced jerkoff bolder.

rowdee  posted on  2007-02-20   20:20:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#62. To: BeAChooser (#31)

Readers ... note that not one of the following verifiable facts and concerns about the Les Roberts study is addressed in Mr Coles article:

*********************

1. The 655,000 estimate is many, many times larger than any other estimate out there (and there are about half a dozen others). Those other estimates were more like 50,000 at the time the John Hopkins study was published. Are they all wrong and only John

Reading no farther than the first few lines, you already make a misleading statement, implying that Cole's numbers have no basis.

To give an idea of the lack of coverage of daily death statistics, Cole cites an example in Basra where the Iraqi governmente stated that one person each hour was assasinated for politcial reasons in that city. None of these made the news. That gives 24 unreported people just for political reasons in one day alone in one city alone. And Basra wasn't and isn't considered a particularly violent city.

When you extend the lack of reporting about daily deaths in Basra, across the entire country and its 36 million population, you have an environment where hundreds of people could easily disappear without any major media noticing.

Cole is proving his point quite well - and Cole has actually been to Iraq, unlike you. He just isn't offering proof in a way that you've set up in your own little world. All I can say is, life goes on without you.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-21   0:07:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#63. To: BeAChooser (#51)

If you are not suggesting that someone in Iraq has disposed of half a million or more bodies without any record of doing so, just say so Diana,

Are you referring to BushCo? I know they're not in Iraq but their military is.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2007-02-21   0:32:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#64. To: BeAChooser (#31)

There is heavy fighting almost every day at Ramadi in al-Anbar province, among guerrillas, townspeople, tribes, Marines and Iraqi police and army. We almost never get a report of these skirmishes and we almost never are told about Iraqi casualties in Ramadi. Does 1 person a day die there of political violence? Is it more like 4? 10? What about Samarra? Tikrit? No one is saying. Since they aren't, on what basis do we say that the Lancet study is impossible?

There are about 90 major towns and cities in Iraq. If we subtract Baghdad, where about 100 a day die, that still leaves 89. If an average of 4 or so are killed in each of those 89, then the study's results are correct. Of course, 4 is an average. Cities in areas dominated by the guerrilla movement will have more than 4 killed daily, sleepy Kurdish towns will have no one killed.

If 470 were dying every day, what would that look like?

West Baghdad is roughly 10% of the Iraqi population. It is certainly generating 47 dead a day. Same for Sadr City, same proportions. So to argue against the study you have to assume that Baquba, Hilla, Kirkuk, Kut, Amara, Samarra, etc., are not producing deaths at the same rate as the two halves of Baghad. But it is perfectly plausible that rough places like Kut and Amara, with their displaced Marsh Arab populations, are keeping up their end. Four dead a day in Kut or Amara at the hands of militiamen or politicized tribesmen? Is that really hard to believe? Have you been reading this column the last three years?

The Los Angeles Times, for example, in a comprehensive investigation found less than 50,000 certificates.

In that same article, The Los Angeles times explicitly stated that 50,000 is a gross undercount and excluded entire sections of the country.

And since we've been over this many times already, you are intentionally trying to deceive and mislead.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-21   1:04:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#65. To: AGAviator (#62)

Do I hear crickets?

Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin

Minerva  posted on  2007-02-21   20:31:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#66. To: Diana, ALL (#56)

"to explain away the discrepancy of the 600,000 or so missing bodies, missing death certificates, and missing news reports."

I never said that, ever.

No, you never said that, but why else would you post me what you did in response to my assertion that 600,000 or more bodies, death certificates, news reports must be missing if the John Hopkins' estimate is correct?

So let me ask you again,

If you were not suggesting that someone in Iraq has disposed of half a million or more bodies without any record of doing so, then just say so, and I will be happy to apologize for misinterpreting your remarks.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   20:57:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#67. To: Diana, ALL (#59)

"If you are not suggesting that someone in Iraq has disposed of half a million or more bodies without any record of doing so, just say so Diana, and I will be happy to apologize for misinterpreting your remarks."

Again, this is the entire post I wrote where you have pulled out all sorts of meanings and interpretations including my saying a mass genocide and cover up is taking place by our US govt. This is my entire quote that you have been monkeying around with, in it's entirety. And there are no "partial quotes" in it.

So, for like the tenth time, here it is, again:

"Uh....

Perhaps you haven't heard, but often in wartime when people are killed, their deaths are not always documented by photograpshs, film, video or even by death certificates.

In fact quite often they are killed and their bodies are quietly buried in mass graves where they aren't discovered until some time later. I'm surprised you aren't aware of this practice."

Why don't you quote the entire post you responded to, Diana?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   20:58:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#68. To: rowdee, Diana, ALL (#61)

Di, dear lady, just tell the bastard to go fuck himself and get it over with!

Being the nice sweet lady you are makes this turd-faced jerkoff bolder.

rowdee, you are such a gentleman. The ladies must love you.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   20:59:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#69. To: AGAviator, ALL (#62)

"1. The 655,000 estimate is many, many times larger than any other estimate out there (and there are about half a dozen others). Those other estimates were more like 50,000 at the time the John Hopkins study was published. Are they all wrong and only John"

Reading no farther than the first few lines, you already make a misleading statement, implying that Cole's numbers have no basis.

They don't. At least not an honest one. For all the reasons mentioned. Now the fact that John Hopkins estimate that Cole chooses to champion happens to be an order of magnitude different than half a dozen other estimates probably should have been a clue to Cole (and you) that something is amiss.

To give an idea of the lack of coverage of daily death statistics, Cole cites an example in Basra where the Iraqi governmente stated that one person each hour was assasinated for politcial reasons in that city. None of these made the news. That gives 24 unreported people just for political reasons in one day alone in one city alone. And Basra wasn't and isn't considered a particularly violent city.

Are the folks in Basra somehow different than the folks surveyed by John Hopkins for their study? Because in the study samples (supposedly random), 92 percent of those who claimed deaths were able to provide death certificates presumably issued by a hospital, morgue or the health ministry. But when the LA Times (not a friend of the war or Bush) went to Basra to count the death certificates issued by those organizations, they didn't find the number of deaths you and John Hopkins suggest. They found perhaps a tenth that number. So are the folks in Basra different than the folks selected *randomly* by John Hopkins to represent the folks in Basra? Hmmmmmmm?

Cole is proving his point quite well - and Cole has actually been to Iraq, unlike you. He just isn't offering proof in a way that you've set up in your own little world. All I can say is, life goes on without you.

Are you sure you can believe Cole? Did he provide a source to this claim? Do you know for a fact that the official in Basra said what he claimed? Can you prove that the deaths he claims were not reported to the authorities and counted? Can you prove death certificates weren't issued for those deaths? Here is another side of that claim: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12892865/site/newsweek "According to the local independent daily Al-Zaman, Shia-on-Shia murders are taking place at the rate of one per hour. (British sources dispute that, saying the city has averaged about 100 murders a month.)" Also, did you notice it is Shia-on-Shia murders? I thought the anti-war crowd has been claiming sectarian violence is the problem? I thought the Shia community was this monolith that is going to side with Iran?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   21:18:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#70. To: AGAviator, ALL (#64)

There are about 90 major towns and cities in Iraq.

Are the people in these 90 major towns and cities different than the people John Hopkins surveyed as being typical of them? Why didn't they go to morgues, hospitals and the health ministry to get a death certificate issued like the ones in the study? Or did they go but then ask those organizations to wipe their records of the fact? Please, resolve this question for me AGAviator since you seem so knowledgeable about the situation in Iraq.

In that same article, The Los Angeles times explicitly stated that 50,000 is a gross undercount and excluded entire sections of the country.

True, the LATimes article says "Iraqi officials involved in compiling the statistics say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Al Anbar in the west." But somehow I doubt they meant their data was off by a factor of ten (or more). A factor of two or three, possibly ... but not a factor of ten. You would think that the LATimes would have mentioned something like that. Wouldn't you?

If you read the John Hopkins report (you've done that, right?), you will find that it claims Al Anbar was surveyed with 3 clusters (compared to Baghdad's 12) out of a total of 47. If the number of clusters is representative of population (it should be), we can conclude that Baghdad has about 25 percent of the population. Anbar would have then 2.5 percent of the population. So now you must be claiming that hundreds of deaths (300?) have been occurring in Anbar every day, on average, since the war began. Let's look at the reasonableness of that. What is the population of Anbar? If Iraq is about 27 million total, Anbar must have had a population of about 680,000 (call it 700,000). Now 300 deaths a day for 39 months (the time between the beginning of the war and July of last year) would total about 351,000. Wow ... are you suggesting that HALF the population of Anbar died during that time?!!! And that's gone unnoticed by the media? ROTFLOL!

Indeed, those are regions where officials probably don't like Americans or the Iraqi government. What better way to embarrass both than to report death of that magnitude? But they haven't done that, have they. Why not? Why are there no pictures or video of this slaughter coming out of those areas? We know the insurgents have photographic equipment and access to the media. Why aren't they using it? Showing this supposed slaughter would probably have more effect than any thousand successful bombings in getting the US out of the country. So why no pictures? Why no video?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   21:23:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#71. To: christine (#60)

It is pretty fucking sad that this, of all forums, has come to this 'back and forth sniping tripe'.

come on, guys...back and forth sniping happens on all forums

It's beyond back and forth sniping and is now just a waste of unreadable posts and nonsense. That's what shills do to threads and eventually to forums. Look at LF.

"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi

angle  posted on  2007-02-21   21:24:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#72. To: Minerva, ALL (#65)

Do I hear crickets?

Let's see if you have answers to my questions?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-21   21:24:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#73. To: angle (#71)

now just a waste of unreadable posts and nonsense

BAC's posts have always been that way. Some think BAC is a paid shill. I don't think so myself. I think he's just psychotic and with less than average intelligence & talent. I don't think he has the talent to make clear posts that convince anyone.

I think he genuinely believes that the mainstream media is always right and anyone who challenges it is a dangerous kook. he's trying to save the world from dangerous kooks.

Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.

Red Jones  posted on  2007-02-21   21:29:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#74. To: Minerva (#65)

http://www.whale.to/m/disin.html

17. Change the subject...This works especially well with companions who can 'argue' with you over the new topic and polarize the discussion arena in order to avoid discussing more key issues.

4) Teamwork. They tend to operate in self-congratulatory and complementary packs or teams. Of course, this can happen naturally in any public forum, but there will likely be an ongoing pattern of frequent exchanges of this sort where professionals are involved. Sometimes one of the players will infiltrate the opponent camp to become a source for straw man or other tactics designed to dilute opponent presentation strength.

"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi

angle  posted on  2007-02-21   21:29:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#75. To: beachooser, Critter, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#72)

Eat Worms, BAC!

You're an intellectual parasite. Wherever you've gone, you contribute nothing of value.


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-02-21   21:29:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#76. To: BeAChooser (#72)

Let's see if you have answers to my questions?

I yield - you win.

Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.

Red Jones  posted on  2007-02-21   21:30:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#77. To: Red Jones (#73) (Edited)

BAC's posts have always been that way. Some think BAC is a paid shill. I don't think so myself. I think he's just psychotic and with less than average intelligence & talent. I don't think he has the talent to make clear posts that convince anyone.

I think he genuinely believes that the mainstream media is always right and anyone who challenges it is a dangerous kook. he's trying to save the world from dangerous kooks.

Low intellect, psychotic, no talent..paranoid..delusions of grandeur [save the world from kooks] and perhaps, "sexually disoriented" = Chimp = Insane.

Law Enforcement Against Prohibition



In a CorporoFascist capitalist society, there is no money in peace, freedom, or a healthy population, and therefore, no incentive to achieve these - - IndieTX

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - - George Orwell

IndieTX  posted on  2007-02-21   21:34:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#78. To: BeAChooser, Minerva (#69)

Now the fact that John Hopkins estimate that Cole chooses to champion happens to be an order of magnitude different than half a dozen other estimates probably should have been a clue to Cole (and you) that something is amiss.

It certainly does.

The people who did the John Hopkins survey actually went out into Iraq, went to a diverse collection of sites, and risked their lives in the process.

The other people are like you, where if they even go to Iraq they stay behind the Green Zone and compile news reports from other people who also stay behind the Green Zone.

Now to compare apples to apples, tell me how the John Hopkins' study compares to another study that also had people going house to house in Iraq and taking a survey.

When you get to that, tell me why you keep harping on "Where are the bodies," when a 655,000 death count + or - the confidence range would mean an average of 4 bodies per day in 89 regions throughout Iraq.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-21   23:55:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#79. To: BeAChooser, Minerva, Skydrifter, Red Jones (#70) (Edited)

Are the people in these 90 major towns and cities different than the people John Hopkins surveyed as being typical of them? Why didn't they go to morgues, hospitals and the health ministry to get a death certificate issued like the ones in the study? Or did they go but then ask those organizations to wipe their records of the fact? Please, resolve this question for me AGAviator since you seem so knowledgeable about the situation in Iraq.

There are some very good reasons for not going to morgues and hospitals: (1) You can get killed in the process of moving around the country, and (2) You can have your dead kin accused of being a terrorist which will result in some serious problems for you and your own surviving family.

Furthermore, to answer your ghoulish preoccupation with "Where are the bodies, where are the death cerfificates" the Cole article cites a common practice of throwing corpses into the Tigris river and other bodies of water. It happens day in and day out.

So do you expect the majority of bodies disposed of in the Tigris River to show up and get identified as bodies, and given a death certificate?

In that same article, The Los Angeles times explicitly stated that 50,000 is a gross undercount and excluded entire sections of the country.

True, the LATimes article says "Iraqi officials involved in compiling the statistics say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Al Anbar in the west." But somehow I doubt they meant their data was off by a factor of ten (or more). A factor of two or three, possibly ... but not a factor of ten. You would think that the LATimes would have mentioned something like that. Wouldn't you?

No I don't. That is arm-waving and speculation on your part.

Now here is the article

Many more Iraqis are believed to have been killed but not counted because of serious lapses in recording deaths in the chaotic first year after the invasion, when there was no functioning Iraqi government, and continued spotty reporting nationwide since...

Iraqi officials involved in compiling the statistics say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Al Anbar in the west. Health workers there are unable to compile the data because of violence, security crackdowns, electrical shortages and failing telephone networks.

The Health Ministry acknowledged the undercount. In addition, the ministry said its figures exclude the three northern provinces of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan because Kurdish officials do not provide death toll figures to the government in Baghdad...

However, samples obtained from local health departments in other provinces show an undercount that brings the total well beyond 50,000.

The figure also does not include deaths outside Baghdad in the first year of the invasion.

The morgue records show a predominantly civilian toll; the hospital records gathered by the Health Ministry do not distinguish between civilians, combatants and security forces. ...

"Everything has increased," said one official in the Health Ministry who didn't want to be identified for security reasons. "Bombings have increased, shootings have increased." ...

So you intrepret "Many more," "serious lapses in reporting," "grossly undercounted," "exclude the three northern provinces," "does not include deaths outside Baghdad," "everything has increased," and "well beyond" as meaning "not more than double."

Nobody else will.

AGAviator  posted on  2007-02-22   0:14:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#80. To: AGAviator, ALL (#78)

The people who did the John Hopkins survey actually went out into Iraq, went to a diverse collection of sites, and risked their lives in the process.

So did this group http://www.iq.undp.org/ILCS/PDF/Analytical%20Report%20-%20English.pdf from the UN Development Program. In a much larger study than John Hopkins', they only found 24,000 war-related deaths at a time when John Hopkins was claiming 98,000. The UN used similar techniques - clusters, etc. So perhaps the difference is that they didn't hire folks to conduct the study who (according to Les Roberts) HATED Americans and the researchers weren't trying to influence a US election against Bush.

The other people are like you, where if they even go to Iraq they stay behind the Green Zone and compile news reports from other people who also stay behind the Green Zone.

You know nothing about me.

Now to compare apples to apples, tell me how the John Hopkins' study compares to another study that also had people going house to house in Iraq and taking a survey.

Asked and answered.

Now it's your turn. Tell us how a study that claims its random sample is representative of the country at large could have 92 percent of those claiming deaths provide a death certificate as proof when various mosques, hospitals and bureaucracies that issue death certificates can't (according to the LA Times) locate even 10 percent of the deaths the John Hopkins' study claimed? This should have been another sign to Cole (and you) that something is terribly amiss.

By the way ... did you ever find the source of Cole's claim about the deaths in Basra? No? Did you ever confirm that those deaths weren't reported to authorities or that death certificates weren't issued in those cases? No? Did you ever confirm those deaths weren't counted in the estimates put out by such organizations as IraqBodyCount? No? Did you ever find out why the British said the death toll was closer to 100 a month than 1 an hour? No?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-22   19:09:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#81. To: AGAviator, ALL (#79)

"Are the people in these 90 major towns and cities different than the people John Hopkins surveyed as being typical of them? Why didn't they go to morgues, hospitals and the health ministry to get a death certificate issued like the ones in the study? Or did they go but then ask those organizations to wipe their records of the fact? Please, resolve this question for me AGAviator since you seem so knowledgeable about the situation in Iraq."

There are some very good reasons for not going to morgues and hospitals: (1) You can get killed in the process of moving around the country, and (2) You can have your dead kin accused of being a terrorist which will result in some serious problems for you and your own surviving family.

Then why did all the folks in the John Hopkins study do that? Did John Hopkins *random* sample just happen to pick a group who did when most of the rest of the country didn't? Or are you suggesting that those who don' t go to morgues, etc can still get death certificates that John Hopkins would accept as legitimate proof? Who issues those death certificate? The LA Times didn't mention any other source for them other than morgues, hospitals and the health ministry. Perhaps the folks in the John Hopkins' study simply create their own? ROTFLOL!

"True, the LATimes article says "Iraqi officials involved in compiling the statistics say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Al Anbar in the west." But somehow I doubt they meant their data was off by a factor of ten (or more). A factor of two or three, possibly ... but not a factor of ten. You would think that the LATimes would have mentioned something like that. Wouldn't you?"

No I don't.

Really? You really think that the highly liberal, anti-Bush, anti-war LA Times wouldn't mention that the death toll is off by a factor of 10 if it were? Really? ROTFLOL!

Many more Iraqis are believed to have been killed but not counted because of serious lapses in recording deaths in the chaotic first year after the invasion, when there was no functioning Iraqi government, and continued spotty reporting nationwide since...

That doesn't help your case either, since the second John Hopkins' study *confirmed* the results of the first which claimed that 98,000 died in the first 18 months after the war began. Thus the majority of the deaths in the 655,000 death study had to have occured after that "chaotic first year".

The Health Ministry acknowledged the undercount. In addition, the ministry said its figures exclude the three northern provinces of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan because Kurdish officials do not provide death toll figures to the government in Baghdad...

But Kurdistan has been very peaceful compared to the rest of Iraq. Surely you aren't claiming that the death rate in Kurdistan is any higher than in Baghdad. If not, then again, the number undercounted can't be much more than the baseline count. You are still missing hundreds and hundreds of thousands of bodies, death certificates and eyewitness reports.

By the way, the liberal, anti-war, mainstream media won't tell the public this, but Kurdistan is a real success story. They are doing quite well right now compared to under Saddam.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-02-22   19:11:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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