4um: Idiocy in D.C., Progress in Baghdad

In order to preserve the cosmic harmony, it seems the gods insist that good news in one place be offset by misfortune elsewhere. It may well be that Gen. David Petraeus is going to lead us to victory in Iraq. He is certainly off to a good start. If the karmic price of success in Iraq is utter embarrassment for senior Bush officials in Washington, D.C.--well, in our judgment, the trade-off is worth it. The world will surely note our success or failure in Iraq. It will not long remember the gang that couldn't shoot straight at the Justice Department--or, for that matter, the antics of congressional Democrats--unless either so weakens the administration as to undercut our mission in Iraq.

Obviously, it's too early to say anything more definitive than that there are real signs of progress in Baghdad. The cocksure defeatism of war critics of two months ago, when the surge was announced, does seem to have been misplaced. The latest Iraq Update (pdf) by Kimberly Kagan summarizes the early effects of the new strategy backed up by, as yet, just one additional U.S. brigade deployed in theater (with more to be added in the coming weeks):

This "rolling surge" focuses forces on a handful of neighborhoods in Baghdad, and attempts to expand security out from those neighborhoods. . . . A big advantage of a "rolling surge" is that the population and the enemy sense the continuous pressure of ever-increasing forces. Iraqis have not seen such a prolonged and continuous planned increase of U.S. forces before. . . . The continued, increasing presence of U.S. forces appears to be having an important psychological, as well as practical, effect on the enemy and the people of Iraq. . . . [Meanwhile] in Ramadi, in the belt south of Baghdad stretching from Yusifiyah to Salman Pak, and northeast in Diyala Province, . . . U.S. and Iraqi forces have deprived al Qaeda of the initiative.

This sense of momentum is confirmed by many other reports in the media, and from Americans and Iraqis on the ground.

But back in Washington, congressional Democrats are still mired in the fall of 2006 and seem determined to be as irresponsible as ever. They're being beaten back--in part thanks to the fighting spirit of stalwart congressional Republicans. Last week, the Senate defeated a resolution that would have restricted the use of U.S. troops in Iraq and set March 31, 2008, as a target date for removing U.S. forces from combat.

On the same day, on a mostly party-line vote, the House Appropriations Committee reported out the Democratic version of a supplemental appropriations bill for the war. It was an odd piece of legislation--an appropriation to fight a war replete with provisions intended to ensure we lose it.

Here's what the Democratic legislation does, according to the Washington Post: "Under the House bill, the Iraqi government would have to meet strict benchmarks. . . . If by July 1 the president could not certify any progress, U.S. troops would begin leaving Iraq, to be out before the end of this year. If Bush did certify progress, the Iraqi government would have until Oct. 1 to meet the benchmarks, or troops would begin withdrawing then. In any case, withdrawals would have to begin by March 1, 2008, and conclude by the end of that summer."

Got that? Oh yes, in addition to the arbitrary timelines for the removal of troops, there's pork. As the Post explains, "Included in the legislation is a lot of money to help win support. The price tag exceeds the president's war request by $24 billion." Some of the extra money goes to bail out spinach farmers hurt by E. coli, to pay for peanut storage, and to provide additional office space for the lawmakers themselves. So much for an emergency war appropriations bill.

The legislation may collapse on the floor of the House this week. It certainly deserves to. Republicans can insist on a clean supplemental--no timelines to reassure the enemy that if they just hang on, we'll be gone before long, and no pork. They can win this fight--and if they do, combined with progress in Iraq, the lasting news from March 2007 will not be Bush administration haplessness; it will be that we are on the way to success in Iraq.

BAC - come on - weekly standard? I would have hoped even you might have matured to reading a news source less TelAviv inspired...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070314/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_baghdad_security "Bomb deaths have gone down 30 percent in Baghdad since the U.S.-led security crackdown began a month ago. Execution-style slayings are down by nearly half. The once frequent sound of weapons has been reduced to episodic, and downtown shoppers have returned to outdoor markets — favored targets of car bombers."

But while many Iraqis are encouraged, they remain skeptical how long the relative calm will last. Each bombing renews fears that the horror is returning. Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents are still around, perhaps just laying low or hiding outside the city until the operation is over.

U.S. military officials, burned before by overly optimistic forecasts, have been cautious about declaring the operation a success. Another reason it seems premature: only two of the five U.S. brigades earmarked for the mission are in the streets, and the full compliment of American reinforcements is not due until late May.

In the months before the security operation began Feb. 14, police were finding dozens of bodies each day in the capital — victims of Sunni and Shiite death squads. Last December, more than 200 bodies were found each week — with the figure spiking above 300 in some weeks, according to police reports compiled by The Associated Press.

Since the crackdown began, weekly totals have dropped to about 80 — hardly an acceptable figure but clearly a sign that death squads are no longer as active as they were in the final months of last year.

In the 27 days leading up to the operation, 528 people were killed in bombings around the capital, according to AP figures. In the first 27 days of the operation, the bombing death toll stood at 370 — a drop of about 30 percent.

Figures alone won't tell the story. In Vietnam, generals kept pointing to enemy body counts to promote a picture of success even when many U.S. soldiers and civilian officials realized the effort was doomed.

True success will be when Iraqis themselves begin to feel safe and gain confidence in their government and security forces. Only then can the economy, long on its heels and with unemployment estimated between 25 and 40 percent, rebound and start providing jobs and a future for Baghdad's people.

A long-term solution also must deal with the militias that sprang up after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Much of the relative calm may be due to a decision by Shiite cleric Muqtada al- Sadr to remove his armed militiamen, known as the Mahdi Army, from the streets. Al-Maliki warned the young cleric that he could not protect them from the Americans during the offensive.

U.S. troops rolled into the Mahdi stronghold of Sadr City on March 4 without firing a shot — a radical change from street battles there in 2004.

Some Mahdi Army fighters may have left the city. But Iraqis who live in Shiite neighborhoods say many others are still around, collecting protection money from shopkeepers and keeping tabs on people — albeit without their guns.

When American patrols pass by, Mahdi members step into shops or disappear into crowds until the U.S. troops are gone. Sunni militants remain in some areas of the city too, although last year's sectarian bloodletting drove many Sunnis from their traditional neighborhoods, depriving extremists of a support network.

If militants from both sects are indeed lying low, that suggests they may have adopted a strategy of waiting until the security operation is over, then re- emerging to fight each other for control of the capital.

But positive trends in Iraq have proven hard to sustain. Hopes for reconciliation are quickly shattered. There have been a series of failed security initiatives.

"We gain nothing from this government. No change," said Abu Zeinab, a Shiite father of two in Baghdad's Hurriyah district. "Today is like yesterday. What is the difference?"

If the media had reported WW2 the way they've reported this war, we'd have lost WW2.

We did lose WWII. We allowed Communism to prevail, which contributed to far greater numbers of deaths than Fascism.

In fact the event which triggered the start of WW II - the Germans invading Poland - speaks to our defeat - without a blink of an eye the communists claimed Poland and other Eastern European nations. The particularly sad thing about Poland was that its Christian citizens were killed by the Naziis in the same numbers as the Jews but to this day the World Jewish Congress is loathe to acknowledge that fact. "As historian Martin Gilbert pointed out, of the first 611 people who died at Auschwitz, 591 were Poles and 20 were Jews." The Poles were largely responsible for deciphering Enigma. Yet we let Stalin take Poland and its Eastern European brethren as part of his "spoils."

"We" hardly talk about that tragic result of WW II. Israel was born and Poland and other Eastern European nations were thrown to the communist wolves. Oh well.

Substitute the words "gulag" for "concentration camp" and "Christian" for Jews" and you get the picture.

4 years after invasion, many Iraqis look back with longing

By Leila Fadel

McClatchy Newspapers

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Four years ago, Iraqi poet Abbas Chaychan, a Shiite Muslim who'd been forced into exile during the predominantly Sunni Muslim regime of Saddam Hussein, hailed the American presence here in a poem that praised the top U.S. diplomat in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer.

"We have breakfasts of kabab and qaymar," he wrote, describing the new Iraq with a reference to a rich cream that's considered a sign of wealth. "We put, in your stead, Mr. Bremer / Better than a tyrant of our own flesh and blood, and his torture."

Last January, shortly after Saddam was hanged, Chaychan again put words to paper. But his outlook had changed.

"History is proud to write about him," he said of Saddam. "It wasn't a rope that wrapped around the neck / It was the neck that wrapped around the rope. ...

As the anniversary of the March 20, 2003, U.S.-led invasion of Iraq nears, many Iraqis, like Chaychan, are expressing nostalgia for the time more than 1,000 days ago when Saddam's statue stood proudly in Baghdad's Fardos Square.

Chaychan's reading of his most recent work, in which he calls Saddam the Arab world's "knight" and compares his death to the eclipsing of the sun, has become a popular Iraqi destination on video-sharing services such as YouTube, where his pained voice rings out over a montage of shots of the Iraqi dictator: clenching his fist in the air, sporting his signature beret, at trial holding a Quran, with a noose around his neck.

In a January interview with CBS News' "60 Minutes," President Bush told correspondent Scott Paley that the American invasion had taken "care of a source of instability in Iraq."

"Envision a world in which Saddam Hussein was rushing for a nuclear weapon to compete against Iran," Bush said. "My decision to remove Saddam Hussein was the correct decision, in my judgment. We didn't find the weapons we thought we would find or the weapons everybody thought he had. But he was a significant source of instability."

In interviews across Baghdad, few Iraqis agreed, however. Instead, they displayed a collective fatigue, even as another plan to bring about security got under way. They're tired of waiting for better days when each morning brings new terrorism. Trapped in their homes, afraid that death will knock, they're worn down, they said.

Law and order - even under a bloody dictator who killed thousands and tortured many others - was better than this, many said. Even those who are glad to see Saddam dead expressed a longing for more orderly times.

Layla Mohammed, a Sunni Muslim mother of three, remembered that heady day four years ago when a noose tightened around the neck of Saddam's statue.

"I felt that I was at the highest point of a roller coaster, just about to plunge into what I hoped would be an exhilarating experience," Mohammed said. "I thought, `Oh, my God, it's happening. I live to see my sons set free.'"

A pharmacist, she said she'd voted in all three elections that Iraq has had since Saddam was toppled: first for an interim government, then for a new constitution, then for a permanent government. She remembers dipping her finger in purple ink - to indicate that she'd voted - with her two sons and her daughter. Together they held up their fingers and took a family photo to commemorate their future democracy.

"At that moment I felt that I was, at last, a sated human being. I had an opinion and it carried weight! I shall treasure that moment all my life," she said. "If only I could have that moment back; its joy was untainted. Now I know better."

The life of freedom and liberty she was promised never came. Her sons are trying to flee the country. She can't afford to keep her house warm, and no longer goes to her pharmacy in the neighborhood of Hurriyah, a once mixed-sect neighborhood that was emptied of most Sunnis in December.

When Saddam was executed she told herself, "There goes the one man who could stop this bloodbath. I thought we would have to pay oil for freedom and democracy, but not our life's blood. It's too much."

Ahmed al Yasseri, a Shiite, also remembers his excitement at the fall of Saddam. He excitedly set up a once-forbidden satellite dish. For the first time he watched Arabic news channels and foreign stations. He bought a cell phone and subscribed to an Internet service.

Then his brother, a former officer in Saddam's army, was shot as he returned from his electronics shop in 2004. Yasseri's two nephews ran outside to see their father's body riddled with bullets. Yasseri fled his neighborhood looking for somewhere safer.

Three months later his uncle was killed, caught in a crossfire as he waited in a long line to buy gasoline. Yasseri moved again.

"In a short time you lose your dear ones, and for what?" he asked with despair. "Believe me, for nothing."

Now his current neighborhood, Mansour, once an upscale shopping district in central Baghdad, has grown dangerous as well. The crowded Shorja market, where he works, is a tempting target for bombs: A triple car bomb there killed at least 67 people a few weeks ago. He travels nowhere but the path between home and work. Every moment he worries that he'll die in the kind of bombing that fills the morgue with body parts.

Saddam was caught nearly nine months after the invasion, hidden in an underground hole with a pistol. Bilal Ali, 40, a Shiite, remembers that night. He pulled out an AK-47 rifle that he'd received as a gift and fired into the air in celebration - a burst of pop-pop-pops - then handed the weapon to his mother, then to his 7-year-old son.

"I shot five full magazines," he said. Each held 30 bullets. "Thank God, who blessed even the hearts of the martyrs in their grave, for this gift."

But it didn't bring the peace that Bilal Ali, a shopkeeper in the Shiite area of Karada, had imagined. Car bombs became prevalent in Shiite areas. Shiites were afraid to pray in their mosques, and Iraqis were afraid to shop in outdoor markets, targets of the Sunni insurgency.

Shiite militias struck back. Men, mostly Sunnis, turned up in the morgue, shot in the head, hands tied behind their back, drill holes in their bodies. The perpetrators eventually were linked to the Ministry of Interior, which oversees the police.

Electricity grew scarcer, at first available for eight hours, then six, then as few as three hours a day. Salaries went up, but so did the cost of living. A tank of cooking gas soared to $60 on the black market. A lower price cost a day's wait in line. The use of a generator cost $100 a month. At $300 a month, wages hardly kept pace.

"I had hope at that time that life would be much better after his regime's collapse," he said. "But I'm very happy with his end even if the security situation is bad."

Every morning as Mona Ali, a single Shiite mother, prepares sandwiches and breakfast for her three children she wonders whether they won't return to her. She leaves her 4-year-old son at home and tightly grips the hands of her two young daughters. On the daily walk to school, bullets sometimes have whizzed above their heads in the Shiite Amil neighborhood in west Baghdad.

"There is fear in my heart every day that my kids will go and not come back to me," she said.

Daily she walks to the neighborhood marketplace. On one trip, a car bomb ripped through the vegetable stands as she approached. The blood, the dead, the injured lay in front of her and she thought, it could have been me. She had a nightmare about her children as orphans.

"I remembered the fear I had for my children and I realized I might not return safely to them," she said.

"Baghdad is dirty. When it gets dark everybody hides in their houses just like rats," she said.

She remembers the bombing of the gold-domed Shiite shrine in Samarra more than a year ago. She knew the attack was different from all the others.

"I felt bitterness in my heart that day," she said. "I knew that things would not rest; I knew that we shall have torment for a long time, and it was true."

Shiite revenge killings soared. Neighbors soon couldn't live with one another. Sunnis feared Shiite militias and their dreaded checkpoints; Shiites feared the Sunni insurgency and its bloody bombings. People fled, and families were torn apart.

On the morning Saddam was hanged, Ali said, she wept. Not for the dictator, but for the death of her hope and the loss of confidence in a government that she thinks is worse than the one that came before it.

Abbas Chaychan never returned to Iraq after the war. He remains an exile, part of an Iraqi diaspora that grows daily. As many as 2 million Iraqis have fled their homeland since the war began, according to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. Up to 1.7 million Iraqis have been displaced internally.

It's the largest refugee movement in the Middle East since the displacement of the Palestinians in 1948, the U.N. reports. About 8 percent of Iraq's population before the war has left; up to 50,000 more Iraqis are displaced each month.

Bodies are stacked at the morgue, mothers weep and children are maimed. For four years Iraqis have waited for better days, and they weep for the time lost: no liberty, no freedom, just death.

Chaychan's most recent poem doesn't lament Saddam's death as much as it pines for the era when he lived.

"I cried & I didn't cry for you," he wrote. "I cried for the time that put you in a tomb."

McClatchy Newspapers special correspondents Laith Hammoudi, Zaineb Obeid and Sahar Issa contributed to this report.

DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.

The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.

The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war.

Officials in Washington and London are likely to be buoyed by the poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey of 5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18.

The 400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq last month found that the sense of security felt by Baghdad residents had significantly improved since polling carried out before the US announced in January that it was sending in a “surge” of more than 20,000 extra troops.

The poll highlights the impact the sectarian violence has had. Some 26% of Iraqis - 15% of Sunnis and 34% of Shi’ites - have suffered the murder of a family member. Kidnapping has also played a terrifying role: 14% have had a relative, friend or colleague abducted, rising to 33% in Baghdad.

Yet 49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer.

Not surprisingly, the divisions in Iraqi society were reflected in statistics — Sunnis were more likely to back the previous Ba’athist regime (51%) while the Shi’ites (66%) preferred the Maliki government.

Maliki, who derives a significant element of his support from Moqtada al-Sadr, the hardline Shi’ite militant, and his Mahdi army, has begun trying to overcome criticism that his government favours the Shi’ites, going out of his way to be seen with Sunni tribal leaders. He is also under pressure from the US to include more Sunnis in an expected government reshuffle.

The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister.

Another surprise was that only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war. Again, that number divided along religious lines, with 41% of Sunnis believing Iraq was in a civil war, compared with only 15% of Shi’ites.

The survey is a rare snapshot of Iraqi opinion because of the difficulty of working in the country, with the exception of Kurdish areas which are run as an essentially autonomous province.

Most international organisations have pulled out of Iraq and diplomats are mostly holed-up in the Green Zone. The unexpected degree of optimism may signal a groundswell of hope at signs the American “surge” is starting to take effect.

This weekend comments from Baghdad residents reflected the poll’s findings. Many said they were starting to feel more secure on the streets, although horrific bombings have continued. “The Americans have checkpoints and the most important thing is they don’t ask for ID, whether you are Sunni or Shi’ite,” said one resident. “There are no more fake checkpoints so you don’t need to be scared.”

The inhabitants of a northern Baghdad district were heartened to see on the concrete blocks protecting an Iraqi army checkpoint the lettering: “Down, down with the militias, we are fighting for the sake of Iraq.”

It would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Residents said they noted that armed militias were off the streets.

One question showed the sharp divide in attitudes towards the continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Some 53% of Iraqis nationwide agree that the security situation will improve in the weeks after a withdrawal by international forces, while only 26% think it will get worse.

“We’ve been polling in Iraq since 2005 and the finding that most surprised us was how many Iraqis expressed support for the present government,” said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB. “Given the level of violence in Iraq, it shows an unexpected level of optimism.”

Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government.

One statistic that bodes ill for Iraq’s future is the number who have fled the country, many of them middle-class professionals. Baghdad has been hard hit by the brain drain — 35% said a family member had left the country.

ORB interviewed a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults between February 10-22. The margin of error was +/- 1.4%.

so now you grasp at "polls" for your validation. marvelous.
spoken like a true clintonian.
pmlol!

again with fairy tales from the paid government propagandist... nice try, Silver Shirt.

March 15, 2007

Give Us Some Real Political Leaders

BAGHDAD, Mar 15 (IPS) - Many Iraqis are now looking to local political leadership to fill wide gaps in a fractured government that is failing to provide security and basic needs.

March 13, 2007

Security Meet Ends, Insecurity Does Not

BAGHDAD, Mar 12 (IPS) - The security conference held last Saturday in Baghdad produced statements, drew mortar fire, and brought little hope of security.

February 13, 2007

More Troops, And More Violence

BAGHDAD, Feb 13 (IPS) - Violence and bombings have only increased after the proposed "surge" of 21,500 U.S. troops in Iraq.

February 12, 2007

Iran 'Fooling' U.S. Military

NAJAF, Feb 12 (IPS) - New evidence is emerging on the ground of an Iranian hand in growing violence within Iraq.

March 15, 2007 - MidEastWire.com Daily Iraq Monitor

March 15, 2007

Al Sharqiyah TV:

Iraqi security sources said that hundreds of Al-Mahdi Army members continue to receive training in the Kermanshah area in western Iran with the participation of a group of Al-Mahdi Army commanders who left Iraq for Iran six weeks ago. The sources said that the Iranian Revolution Guards Intelligence Unit and Al-Quds Operations Command asked Al-Mahdi Army to establish a command-in-waiting that would include new elements that are not publicly known, while maintaining the central command of Al-Mahdi Army militia. The command-in-waiting will include young elements and other elements that are not wanted by Iraqi and US forces.

The sources have mentioned the names of some commanders who have great influence within Al-Mahdi Army. Among these names, which could not be verified from independent or Al-Mahdi Army sources, are Walid al-Zamili, Mustafa al-Ya'qubi, Ali Kharsan, Awn Abd-al-Nabi, Hashim Abu-Raghif, Jabir Jabiri, Amar Muhaysan, Riyad al-Nuri, and Abbas al-Kufi, most of whom are outside Iraq at present, in addition to the known commanders of the sectors. The sources also mentioned the names of the publicly-known personalities in the Sadr Trend who are active in Iraq. Among these names are Abd-al-Zahra al-Suway'idi in Al-Sadr City; Salim Husayn and Hazim al-A'raji in Al-Karkh; Muhammad al-Zubaydi in Al-Rasafah; Ali Salim in Basra; and Abd-al-Razzaq al-Nadawi in Al-Diwaniyah. Government sources repeatedly declined to give official information on the movement of Al-Mahdi Army in Iraq and Iran, thus making it difficult to verify the information coming from government and non-govern! ment sources at the same time.

The Iraqi government had in the past received a report on a training operation held in two Lebanese areas; namely, in Hirmil and Al-Nabi Shit, but Hezbollah denied any link to such training operations. The secret report presented to the Iraqi government by an Iraqi security agency said that the rumours about the training of Al-Mahdi Army in Lebanon led to discharging Hezbollah official Nawwaf al-Musawi, who was replaced by Hasan al-Rahal to coordinate the training operations in Lebanon.

An explosion of a booby-trapped car driven by a suicide bomber rocked the Al-Karradah area in southeastern Baghdad, killing two people and wounded two others, according to an initial casualty toll. A security source said that the explosion targeted an Iraqi Police checkpoint at Kahramanah Square, adding that the casualty toll is expected to rise since the area where the explosion took place is usually crowded with people. Eyewitnesses said that they saw six wounded people following the explosion, which took place at 1500.

A bus exploded in front of the General Company for Mechanical Industries in Al-Iskandariyah in northern Babil Governorate, south of Baghdad. Security sources said that the bus exploded when the employees arrived at the company this morning, killing at least five people and wounding 21 others. Ambulances rushed to the site of the explosion and evacuated the wounded to hospitals.

An armed group in Iraq announced that it kidnapped an Iraqi officer with the rank of brigadier general. It posted on the Internet his identity cards, which showed that he holds the post of deputy director at the Iraqi Defence Ministry, but it did not describe him as an officer. Jamal Rashid Muhammad Ali was shown wearing civilian clothes in all his identity cards, which were posted by Ansar al-Sunnah Group on the Internet. The group said that the kidnapping operation took place in an area in Baghdad, without making any demand to release him.

Unidentified gunmen today assassinated an escort of Iraqi Construction and Housing Minister Bayan Dazhyi near his house in Al-Kazimiyah in northern Baghdad. A source at the Construction and Housing Ministry said that unidentified gunmen attacked Asu Abdallah Ghafur, an escort of the minister, while on his way to the ministry, which is located inside the Green Zone in central Baghdad.

US-Iraqi forces imposed curfew on the city of Al-Dulu'iyah in Balad District, north of Baghdad, following an airdrop over the city and an armed attack on a police station there. Iraqi Police sources said that US forces were dropped from five helicopters over the Al-Jubur neighbourhood in central al-Dulu'iyah, adding that the US forces killed two young men in an air bombardment near their houses and carried out raid-and-search campaigns in a number of areas, during which they arrested nine people, including a brigadier general in the former Iraqi Army and his brother.

Sources said that unidentified gunmen attacked Al-Hardaniyah Police Department in northern Al-Dulu'iyah and clashed with policemen. As a result, a gunman was killed and another was wounded, while officer with the rank of first lieutenant was seriously wounded and curfew was imposed. - MIDEASTWIRE.COM, Middle East

Roundup of Iraq violence -- March 18, 2007

By Mohammed al Dulaimy

McClatchy Newspapers

The daily Iraq violence report is compiled by McClatchy Newspapers in Baghdad from police, military and medical reports. This is not a comprehensive list of all violence in Iraq, much of which goes unreported. It’s posted without editing as transmitted to McClatchy’s Washington Bureau.

-- Around 9:30 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded in Al-Mustansiriyah square (not far away from Al-Mustansiriya university) targeting an Iraqi police vehicle. The blast killed one Iraqi policeman and injured two other policemen and two civilians.

-- Around 1:00 p.m. random gunfire by gunmen near Al Rusafi square targeting civilians claimed the life of one civilian and injured two.

-- Around 4:45 p.m. a parked car bomb exploded in Al Shaab neighborhood near Shalal market. The blast targeted civilians and claimed the lives of three civilians and injured seven.

-- Around 5:50 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Al Kamalia neighborhood. the blast damaged one Humvee, Iraqi police said.

-- Police found five unidentified bodies throughout the capital. All the corpses were found in the western side of Baghdad (Karkh). The number of corpses found in each neighborhood as follows: Two dead bodies in Dora, two dead bodies in Amil and one in Saidiyah.

-- Around 2:30 p.m. gunmen attacked a mini bus carrying passengers was heading to Baghdad in Hibhib town of Al Khalis (20 Km north of Baqouba). The attack claimed the lives of 7 (including one child less than two years old and 2 women) and caused severe injuries to 4.

-- Two gunmen were killed in a clash with the British forces in Al-Hussein area (8 Km west of Basra) early morning today, Iraqi police source said.

BERKELEY, United States, Mar 16 (IPS) - Author of the upcoming book "The Iran Agenda: the Real Story of U.S. Policy and the Middle East Crisis", due for release in September from Polipoint Press, Reese Erlich recently spent three weeks investigating Kurdish resistance organisations in Iran and Iraq's Kurdish region. He tells IPS that "the United States is officially funding armed groups to overthrow the Islamic government" in Tehran. In an interview with IPS's Omid Memarian, Erlich, who has covered the Middle East as a freelance journalist for the past 20 years and co-wrote 2003's "Target Iraq", says that Washington's strategy is primarily focused on media propaganda -- such as websites and satellite television and radio stations -- but also includes covert military training.

The Iranian government has itself accused opposition groups of destabilising the border region, and recently warned Kurdish Iraqi officials to expel armed bandits and anti-Iranian groups from their province, or face military incursions.

IPS: What do the Kurdish opposition groups look like? What constitutes the daily life of these small groups who are fighting an established government?

Reese Erlich (RE): The Kurdish compounds are like small villages. They have barracks for the single men peshmurga. Political cadres live with their families in small homes, much like Iraqi Kurds in that area. They have meeting halls and offices. PJAK's [Partiya Jiyana Azad a Kurdistanê, or Party of Free Life of Kurdistan] conditions are much more like guerrillas, living in the cold mountains with more rudimentary huts.

I described one PJAK leader as the "very model of a modern guerrilla general." He has a cell phone, internet access and satellite TV. The women guerrillas claim they only watch news programmes, but I got them to admit they also like movies with Brad Pitt and Mel Gibson.

IPS: Is the U.S. support limited to media or does it include other activities, such as military operations?

RE: Secretly, U.S. intelligence services are also sponsoring armed attacks within Iran. I discovered the U.S. and Israeli support for PJAK in Kurdistan and from so-called former MEK members. The U.S. asks a Mujahedin-e Khalq Organisation (MEK or MKO) member if they have left and if they support democracy. If they answer yes, they can be trained and armed for clandestine actions inside Iran.

I believe that Kurds and other minorities within Iran have legitimate grievances. They are not allowed to learn in their local languages and face other forms of discrimination. But the U.S. finds the most extremist of minority groups and encourages them to engage in violence. The PJAK is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and has become a nationalist cult built around the personality of Abdullah Ocalan. MEK is really a cult, run by very secretive and authoritarian leaders. Both these groups consider themselves social democrats, but ironically, they receive the most support from extreme right wingers in the U.S.

IPS: How do they get support from [sympathisers in] Iran when the Iranian government has extensively shut down their operations in the west of Iran?

RE: I met with three Iranian Kurdish opposition groups with camps in northern Iraq. KDPI [the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran] and Komala say they recruit new members from Iran and both have peshmurga militias. But neither currently engages in armed activity inside Iran. It's hard to know what actual support they have inside Iran, but they historically certainly had supporters in the Kurdish regions. PJAK is much smaller and more isolated. But they have picked up some support from young people angry at the oppression they face inside Iran.

>From my sources among Kurds, all three groups carry out clandestine meetings with supporters inside Iran. When big demonstrations broke out inside Kurdistan in 2006, all three groups participated in the demonstrations. PJAK took a more militant line, calling for armed struggle, and that appealed to some youth.

IPS: What can they achieve while there are many dynamics to reform the Iranian political system?

RE: All three groups agree on certain things. They say they support a revolution in Iran with the ultimate aim of establishing a democratic, federal system. They want the central government to control major issues such as foreign affairs, the military and economy. But local regions should control education, health, police and similar local issues. They do not call for separatism. The danger, of course, is that if Iraqi Kurdistan becomes independent and the Iranian government continues its current policies, the mood could shift in support of separatism.

It's very hard to judge how much support these groups have in Tehran. I met with some intellectuals, NGO leaders and others who -- I suspected -- supported one or another group. But since the groups are illegal, they can't be very specific. I think the support for much greater local control or federalism is strong among the Kurds I met.

IPS: Does the Iranian opposition, which is supported by U.S. money, support any kind attack against Iran?

RE: KDPI strongly opposes any U.S. military attacks against Iran, arguing it will just alienate Iranians, including those who oppose the government. PJAK welcomes such attacks in hopes they will topple the government. Komala says it neither supports nor opposes such attacks. U.S. attacks might help topple the regime, they argue, but they don't advocate it.

U.S. military officials I spoke with deny any U.S. support of PJAK. The official position of the Bush administration is to support Iranians to bring about a new government, but they don't officially call for "regime change." In reality, the U.S. is doing everything in its power to overthrow the Iranian government and install one friendly to the U.S.

IPS: Is there any direct connection between the Kurdish opposition groups and U.S. officials? Do they meet on regular basis?

RE: In 2006, top Komala and KDPI leaders visited the U.S. to meet with middle level State Department and intelligence officials. It was an official meeting covered in the press at the time. They wouldn't tell me the content of the meetings except that the meetings were very friendly.

Hejri visited Washington in 2006 to meet with State Department and other U.S. government officials. Hejri and other KDPI leaders deny accepting U.S. financing, although he said KDPI would accept such aid if offered.

Morteza Esfandiari, the KDPI representative in the U.S., told me that KDPI had applied to get some of the 85 million dollars allocated to "promote democracy" in Iran in order to improve its satellite TV station.

The KDPI opposes U.S. or Israeli military attacks on Iran's nuclear power facilities as counterproductive.

I think it will very hard for Iran to crush the Kurdish opposition. Kurds are a very independent people who have never liked repression from the central government. In addition, the Kurdish guerrillas can retreat into Iraq, and return to fight another day.

IPS: The Iranian government has a very friendly relationship with Iraq's president, who is a Kurd himself and has strong ties with Iranian officials. Why does the Iraqi government allow the Kurdish opposition groups to operate in Iraq?

RE: The KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) allows Komala and KDPI to maintain compounds in Iraq and train peshmurga, so long as they don't carry out armed actions inside Iran. I think KDPI and Komala agree to those terms. PJAK does carry out armed actions. KRG officials claim they can't stop PJAK because of the rugged mountain terrain. In reality, they just look the other way, since PJAK has U.S. and Israeli backing.

Kurdish nationalism is very strong. The KRG, which has good relations with Iran, can't ignore the plight of Kurds living in Iran. So they compromise by not allowing the two major groups to engage in guerrilla activity. But it's a situation that can't last forever. Last year, on two occasions, Iran shelled Iraqi Kurdish villages, killing five people as a warning to the KRG.

In the past, Iran has asked the KRG to shut down opposition groups operating in Kurdistan. They even made a deal with one of the Iraqi Krudish groups to attack KDPI's camp. But KDPI was warned in advance and no one was hurt. Right now the KRG relies on the U.S., and the U.S. wants Iran attacked. So I don't think Iran's entreaties will go anywhere. If the general political situation changes, however, who knows?

*Omid Memarian is an Iranian journalist and civil society activist. He has won several awards, including Human Rights Watch's highest honour in 2005, the Human Rights Defender Award. His blog can be found at http://omidmemarian.blogspot.com/. (FIN/2007)

if you were even a quarter less cluless than the Chamberlains you source, you might have a chance, but I doubt it.