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Title: British Backtrack on Iraq death toll
Source: Independent
URL Source: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2396031.ece
Published: Mar 27, 2007
Author: Jill Lawless
Post Date: 2007-03-27 06:38:41 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 24802
Comments: 394

British government officials have backed the methods used by scientists who concluded that more than 600,000 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion, the BBC reported yesterday.

The Government publicly rejected the findings, published in The Lancet in October. But the BBC said documents obtained under freedom of information legislation showed advisers concluded that the much-criticised study had used sound methods.

The study, conducted by researchers from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and the Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, estimated that 655,000 more Iraqis had died since March 2003 than one would expect without the war. The study estimated that 601,027 of those deaths were from violence.

The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 per cent certain that the real number of deaths lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636.

The conclusion, based on interviews and not a body count, was disputed by some experts, and rejected by the US and British governments. But the chief scientific adviser to the Ministry of Defence, Roy Anderson, described the methods used in the study as "robust" and "close to best practice". Another official said it was "a tried and tested way of measuring mortality in conflict zones".

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#56. To: Destro (#55)

Or maybe we just don't want it to turn into another LP or FR, which sadly appears to be what you would prefer.

"The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes nor between parties either — but right through the human heart." — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

robin  posted on  2007-04-01   23:57:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#57. To: Destro (#55)
(Edited)

what are you bitching about, Destro? BAC is posting here, is he not? he's not being censored. he is being blocked by choice of some of the individual members. if you don't like this forum, its free speech policy which includes the right to call someone a troll, and its members (which you are always criticizing and painting with a broad brush), then why don't you leave? you've expressed your distaste for it and us over and over. btw, you are certainly free to create and fund a forum of your own.

christine  posted on  2007-04-02   0:20:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#58. To: christine (#57)

I see an attempt to ban him.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-02   0:45:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#59. To: robin (#56)

Or maybe we just don't want it to turn into another LP or FR, which sadly appears to be what you would prefer.

You are just the flip side of FR. Same mindset. Like how the neocons still think like Marxist even though they embraced the conservative cause - they carry out their cause in a Marxist manner.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-02   0:46:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#60. To: Destro, robin, christine (#55)

The truth is often uncomfortable. This is one of the few forums where it is allowed to be heard. You can read the likes of BAC anytime on FR and LP.

So you are for limiting discourse.

Your conclusion does not logically follow what robin wrote.

She said "You can read the likes of BAC anytime on FR and LP" meaning, they are the dominant shills there who tolerate little dissent, where as here he is a minority opinion but is permitted to express his views even if most despise him.

She never advocated limiting speech based on ideology, and your attempt to nip and tuck her words for that purpose came up real short. No grownup would ever extrapolate such a ridiculous non sequitur from her posts, and how you managed it is a mystery to all.

And, did I mention that you're a rude little twit?

“Free trade is Jesus Christ, and Jesus Christ is free trade.”__Sir John Bowring

HOUNDDAWG  posted on  2007-04-02   0:52:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#61. To: christine, robin (#57) (Edited)

Destro is on LF at the exact same moment calling people names over the exact same issue as he is on another thread here!

His OCD is easy to see.

http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=news_history&Number=295383552&t=-1#Post295383552

“Free trade is Jesus Christ, and Jesus Christ is free trade.”__Sir John Bowring

HOUNDDAWG  posted on  2007-04-02   1:05:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#62. To: HOUNDDAWG (#61)

I have to hand it to you 'dawg. Anyone who can navigate, and actually read comments at LF, has a special ability. And on top of their hideous software, the more entrenched members get to rate other people. From top to bottom, that forum is a mystery to me.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-04-02   8:25:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#63. To: HOUNDDAWG, christine, robin (#61)

estro is on LF at the exact same moment calling people names over the exact same issue as he is on another thread here!

People who believe in underground UFO-Nazi bases in the South Pole need be called names. I think they and other people who reject science in the name of their religion or ideology are destroying this country.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-02   9:43:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#64. To: Jethro Tull (#62)

I have to hand it to you 'dawg. Anyone who can navigate, and actually read comments at LF, has a special ability. And on top of their hideous software, the more entrenched members get to rate other people. From top to bottom, that forum is a mystery to me.

Nothing I can add.

It was my home and host to my favorite vanity threads when there was an effort to uphold it as a libertarian resource. But, it's not as much fun anymore, at least for me.

There's a question whether or not Liberty Forum was (or is) a SCHOOL OF THE AMERICAS/WHINSEC or some other snoopy govt agency project. It's been strange enough at times, but I can't say for certain either way.

Everything I submitted was cleared for govt consumption and I didn't expose myself, but others did and still do.

“Free trade is Jesus Christ, and Jesus Christ is free trade.”__Sir John Bowring

HOUNDDAWG  posted on  2007-04-02   13:10:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#65. To: Destro, AGAviator, ALL (#30)

Why is it our business?

Saddam's activities and what happened on 9/11 and thereafter made it our business.

You child killing Americans need to mind your own business.

Yeah. Maybe we should have stayed out of WW2 too.

Thanks to American sanctions

No, thanks to Saddam doing everything he could to get around those sanctions. Thanks to Saddam not giving up on WMD. Thanks to France, Germany and Russia and officials of the UN letting themselves be bribed to look the other way as Saddam diverted funds from the food for oil program and bought substandard food and medicine in exchange for large kickbacks. Sorry, but the ONLY one responsible for the deaths of innocents in Iraq after 91 was Saddam. The hardship could have been over in a year had Saddam just come clean and truly given up his WMD aspirations.

"We also don't know what al-Zarqawi and his like would have been up to in Iraq now had we not invaded."

Dead at the hands of the secular Arab nationalist Ba'athists - many of whom are Christians - if he acted up.

That doesn't wash, Destro. He had already acted up. Several times. And the Iraqi regime turned a blind eye to his activities. And continued to do so.

"We know they had planned a mass casualty attack on Jordan (and the US embassy in Jordan) from Baghdad."

I plan on killing every NATO soldier in Kosovo from Belgrade. Wishing a plan is not implementing a plan.

Apparently you don't pay attention to the news. About a dozen al-Qaeda were caught in Jordan with the materials (vehicles, explosives, chemicals) needed to carry out the plot that they themselves admitted was funded and planned by al-Zarqawi from Iraq. They admitted they'd met him in BAGHDAD before going to Syria to carry out the plot. It was more than a "plan". It came close to being reality and killing tens of thousands of people, including many Americans. And one reason it may have not succeeded is the invasion that put al-Zarqawi on the run and made it difficult if not impossible to monitor the progress of the plot and its detailed execution.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   20:27:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#66. To: Destro, ALL (#31)

Makes no difference

Dead and not dead is a huge difference. And in one case it means John Hopkin's results are bogus and all those championing those results have been deceived. Turn Iraq into a successful, peaceful democracy and many of those who fled will return. They won't be doing that if they are in the grave.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   20:29:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#67. To: AGAviator, ALL (#35)

Hey dumbfuck.

Fuck you lying troll.

I've already told you, fucking troll,

Are you typical of 4um posters, AGAviator?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   20:31:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#68. To: christine, Destro, ALL (#37)

One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument

christine ...

I haven't posted anything but sourced facts and sound logic, which I've been more than willing to defend, to this forum. I haven't used any foul language. I haven't called anyone any labels. If that's provocative, so be it. It you think that's disruptive of your forum, your forum has a serious problem.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   20:36:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#69. To: BeAChooser (#67)

Are you typical of 4um posters,

Put down the TV, Ooser, eat some toast and release yourself from the cult of hannity. What's that called, 'reflexive parallelism' something?

"People like truth, it gives us a fucking benchmark." - dakmar

Dakmar  posted on  2007-04-02   20:47:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#70. To: BeAChooser (#68)

I haven't posted anything but sourced facts and sound logic

And the reason you still support AmeriKan troops in Iraq is what?

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-04-02   20:58:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#71. To: AGAviator, ALL (#40)

Your claim was that the first study stated that the majority of the deaths did not happen during the first year.

I claimed no such thing. You can't even read. What I said is that the second study claimed to confirm the results of the first study. The first study claimed that 100,000 died in the first 18 months after the invasion. The second study claimed the number was 112,000. So for you to suggest that uncounted deaths in the first year explains away the problem of 550,000 missing death certificates is faulty logic.

Furthermore, the first study specifically excluded Fallujah, so any numbers from the first study are too low according to their methodology.

Again, you demonstrate that you don't understand statistics. They did not exclude Fallujah in the first study. They threw out the data point as a flyer but they did include the population of Fallujah in their overall estimate of 100,000 dead.

The study does not claim that the "excess violent deaths" are all caused by military action, or even a majority of them are caused by military action.

Here's how JH classified them:

Violent, coalition - 31%
Violent, other - 24%
Violent, unknown - 45%

Gunshot - 56%
Car bomb - 13%
Other explosive/ordinance - 14%
Air Strike - 13%
Violent, unknown - 2%
Accident - 2%

Do you really want us to believe that most of those claimed deaths ... almost as large of percentage of population as died in WW2 in Germany and Japan due to the strategic bombing of cities ... died due to guns in Iraq? And no one bothered to report this slaughter in either the MSM or Arab media?

So fuck you, troll.

Are you typical of 4um posters?

Now you want us to believe that thugs with guns, not bombs, have killed 2% of the population.

I never said that lying troll. And the study said that 50,000 were not killed by violence.

Actually, the list I cited from the JH study suggests that 1.4% of the population has been killed by GUNS. And you want us to believe that and believe that no one has reported this over the last 5 years.

So what's your point, fuckwit?

Are you typical of 4um posters? And if you can't see my point, AGAviator, I suspect it is because you don't want to see my point. But that's ok. I think any visitor to 4um who read what I posted about Kurdistan, Mosul and Kirkuk will understand.

Is Les Roberts lying when he says Iraqi doctors write death certificates, lying SOS?

"Hard to tell since NOT ONE Iraqi doctor has come forward to say he wrote death certificates and didn't report them to the central government."

Answer the question, weasel.

I think I did. Funny that Les Roberts doesn' t name any of these doctors who he only now claims wrote death certificates without telling anyone else.

If I prove from an unbiased source that Iraqi doctors do write death certificates, you'll be banished from this site permanently.

Not for expressing a contrary opinion, but for making repeated false statements and spamming them hundreds of times.

ROTFLOL! If that were a forum rule, this site would be empty.

Now put up or shut up.

I'm not the one with the missing death certificates and the missing doctors saying they wrote certificates but didn't report them to authorities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/05/wirq05.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/05/05/ixworld.html "Under Iraqi medical law the morgue does not deal with any person who has died from natural causes as they can have their death certificate issued by a doctor."

Hey AGAviator ... doesn't that imply that according to Iraqi law only the morgue can issue death certificates if the cause isn't natural?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   21:30:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#72. To: AGAviator, Destro, ALL (#44)

However you certainly can disprove the Iraqi Health Ministry counting all the deaths in Iraq,

I've never claimed they did. I've said on numerous occasions that the total from the LATimes article might be off a factor of 2 or even 3. But not a factor of 10. To believe 10, you have to believe a lot of nonsense. It is just as ridiculous a claim as believing bombs brought down the WTC towers.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   21:34:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#73. To: AGAviator, Destro, ALL (#46)

No, when someone repeats assertions time and time again that have been decisively rebutted, the person becomes a nuisance.

And would that apply to posters who make false claims about the WTC collapse and the damage at the Pentagon? Like claiming a collapse time of 10 seconds? Like claiming a hole in the face only 20 feet wide? Will you insist they be booted from 4um too, AGAviator?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   21:36:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#74. To: robin, AGAviator, Destro, ALL (#47)

robin is a good example of who I mean, AGAviator. You prepared to insist she be kicked off 4um? Because when she says "10 seconds is the govt's # for WTC1" she's being deceptive and the falseness of what she's saying has been proven over and over. The 9/11 commission report is NOT the Govt's number. The NIST report gives the "govt's" number. And irregardless of what is in the govt's report, the videos and images that have been posted from various sources prove the towers didn't collapse in 10 seconds. So is robin to be booted, AGAviator, for continuing this 10 second nonsense? Just curious.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   21:40:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#75. To: robin, ALL (#50)

9/11 truth movement states it took about 14 seconds

But that's NOT what you were claiming, robin. Over and over you claimed it took 10 seconds. That it was FREE FALL. You posted sources showing that 10 seconds was impossible becuase free fall in a vacuum would be only about 9-10 seconds. To call the collapse free fall if it was 14 or 15 seconds is deceptive. And your not acknowledging that not one structures expert or demolition expert in the world has a problem with a 15 second collapse time is also telling.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   21:52:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#76. To: Destro, robin, christine, ALL (#53)

A shitload of people have died in Iraq and a shit load of people have fled Iraq for other countries as refugess - some say up to 2 million Iraqis have fled Iraq.

That's probably true from what I've read.

As long as folks stick to facts, rather than deliberate lies, I have no problem.

I can't speak to the London report on the number of deaths because I have not studied it in part because I know the death toll has been huge so I have not bothered to check one way or the other. I assume it is accurate.

That's an assumption you'd be better off not making. Because the John Hopkins' study (it was just reported in the Lancet) is filled with all sorts of problems. I listed SOME of them in posts 4 and 5 of this thread. Problems that for the most part have been simply ignored by the defenders of the study.

The only part of the 9/11 story I accept from the govt is the 'mechanical' ones not the rest - not on the relationship of the 9/11 cell to US intellugence and not what the status of the information the govt had on them before that day.

And I haven't expressed an opinion one way or the other on the latter. I have said there are good questions that deserve answers. But that one won't ever get them answered if one start out insisting on nonsense that is easily debunked.

It shocks me you guys don't see what I am accusing you of.

It shocks me that the folks here don't see that I'm actually trying to help them be more credible ... so those other questions about 9/11 can get answered.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   23:12:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#77. To: robin, Destro, ALL (#54)

The truth is often uncomfortable. This is one of the few forums where it is allowed to be heard.

So can we agree, robin, that the truth is that the collapse of the towers took about 15 seconds, not 10 seconds, and was therefore not a free fall collapse?

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   23:14:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#78. To: Destro, ALL (#63)

I think they and other people who reject science in the name of their religion or ideology are destroying this country.

A good case can be made for that assertion.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-02   23:17:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#79. To: SKYDRIFTER, skydrifter (#15)

(if speak about a car;) - I’ll spam about the whole damned street; (if you try to stay put;) - I’ll spam about your feet; (if you start to get cold;) - I’ll spam with all the heat; (if you take a short walk;) - I'll spam about the fleet.

Spam-man!

This is going to bug me all night, I know that song but can't think of it, I know I've heard it a million times! What was the title?

Good job, that was funny!

Diana  posted on  2007-04-02   23:30:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#80. To: Diana (#79)

Taxman - Beatles.

"People like truth, it gives us a fucking benchmark." - dakmar

Dakmar  posted on  2007-04-02   23:32:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#81. To: BeAChooser, robin, christine, AGAviator, (#76)

That's an assumption you'd be better off not making. Because the John Hopkins' study (it was just reported in the Lancet) is filled with all sorts of problems. I listed SOME of them in posts 4 and 5 of this thread. Problems that for the most part have been simply ignored by the defenders of the study.

BeAChooser, you want to discredit the John Hopkins' study (it was just reported in the Lancet) so as to justify the Iraq mission rather then be accurate about the Iraqi death toll.

Since I consider the Iraq war illegal and immoral even one death is criminial.

Just because few Americans were killed in Kosovo (another illegal and immoral war by America) does not justify that war either.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-02   23:50:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#82. To: Dakmar (#80)

Taxman - Beatles.

Of course!

thankyou, I've been driving myself nuts trying to think of it, I can't believe I couldn't think of it. I was thinking "Sandman? No that's not right...".

Diana  posted on  2007-04-03   0:01:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#83. To: Destro, ALL (#81)

Since I consider the Iraq war illegal and immoral even one death is criminial.

That YOU consider the war illegal is immaterial.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-03   0:02:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#84. To: beachooser, Destro, Minerva, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#83)

That YOU consider the war illegal is immaterial.

He's got a lot oh high-powered company, BAC, whether you approve or not.

OR, conversely, your "consideration" of the official lies as being facts, is immaterial.

Fuck you BAC, you treasonous queer!


SKYDRIFTER  posted on  2007-04-03   0:07:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#85. To: BeAChooser, SKYDRIFTER, Minerva, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala (#83)

That YOU consider the war illegal is immaterial.

Boy, did I hit a nerve or what? I am good at that.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-03   0:15:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#86. To: BeAChooser, SKYDRIFTER, Minerva, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala (#85)

BeAChooser, admit that you seek to discredit the report to justify the Iraq mission and the honesty will be accepted. I say this from someone who has defended you on here from those calling for your banning (and will continue to do so even if I disagree with your position).

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-03   0:27:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#87. To: Destro (#81)

BeAChooser, you want to discredit the John Hopkins' study (it was just reported in the Lancet) so as to justify the Iraq mission rather then be accurate about the Iraqi death toll.

Since I consider the Iraq war illegal and immoral even one death is criminial.

Just because few Americans were killed in Kosovo (another illegal and immoral war by America) does not justify that war either.

Good post there, pain in the ass boy!

HOUNDDAWG  posted on  2007-04-03   1:55:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#88. To: HOUNDDAWG (#87)

All my posts are good. They just go over your pointed heads sometimes.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-03   2:08:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#89. To: Destro (#88)

Well, if you didn't use so many big words, then....

"Smoke marihuana cigarettes for a month and what was once your brain will be nothing but a storehouse of horrid specters."

HOUNDDAWG  posted on  2007-04-03   2:15:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#90. To: SKYDRIFTER, BeAChooser (#84)

Fuck you BAC, you treasonous queer!

Is this true BAC? Are you a treasonous queer. Because I'm going to stop reading everything you write if this is true. Please defend yourself and prove these charges wrong. I cannot in good faith follow the writings of a treasonous queer.

Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.

Red Jones  posted on  2007-04-03   9:42:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#91. To: Destro (#86)

People should just ignore the government as the government lies. But people tend to idolize government and think that their words are important. same with big-media.

Galatians 3:29 And if ye [be] Christ's, then are ye Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise.

Red Jones  posted on  2007-04-03   9:43:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#92. To: Red Jones, SKYDRIFTER, BeAChooser (#90)

I cannot in good faith follow the writings of a treasonous queer.

I don't get the notion of not wanting to read other's opinions even of they are against my opinions.

Those BARF alerts on Freerepublic made me hate those scum even more. Not that I would agree with a someone on t he left, etc - I just find the notion of refusing to read their opinions because they are of the other side a distasteful position. I want to read everything and debate it to the max.

"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom

Destro  posted on  2007-04-03   11:12:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#93. To: Ada (#0)

Now that Blair is about to leave office, I wonder if people in the British government feel freer to speak out.

I wonder how much Blair's imminent successor Brown has to do with this change. It looks as if the British government is close to freeing through diplomatic means its sailors held in Iran.

To reason, indeed, he was not in the habit of attending. His mode of arguing, if it is to be so called, was one not uncommon among dull and stubborn persons, who are accustomed to be surrounded by their inferiors. He asserted a proposition; and, as often as wiser people ventured respectfully to show that it was erroneous, he asserted it again, in exactly the same words, and conceived that, by doing so, he at once disposed of all objections. - Macaulay, "History of England," Vol. 1, Chapter 6, on James II.

aristeides  posted on  2007-04-03   11:20:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#94. To: Destro, ALL (#86)

BeAChooser, admit that you seek to discredit the report to justify the Iraq mission and the honesty will be accepted.

The report is an obvious lie.

One will not find the truth or justice or freedom in basing one's views on obvious lies.

All those who insist it is accurate are discrediting themselves along with any other views they hold.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-03   15:28:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#95. To: Destro, Red Jones, ALL (#90)

Red Jones - Is this true BAC? Are you a treasonous queer.

And, Destro, when one bases one's views on lies, this is all that's left to defend oneself.

BeAChooser  posted on  2007-04-03   15:29:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#96. To: BeAChooser (#94)

One will not find the truth or justice or freedom in basing one's views on obvious lies.

so did ron brown move the wmd to syria or have you concocted a new story?

"And this is the end of my brilliant career on the 4um..." -- ponchy 12/20/2006

Morgana le Fay  posted on  2007-04-03   15:34:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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