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Title: British Backtrack on Iraq death toll
Source:
Independent
URL Source: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2396031.ece
Published: Mar 27, 2007
Author: Jill Lawless
Post Date: 2007-03-27 06:38:41 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 24118
Comments: 394
British government officials have backed the methods used by scientists who concluded that more than 600,000 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion, the BBC reported yesterday. The Government publicly rejected the findings, published in The Lancet in October. But the BBC said documents obtained under freedom of information legislation showed advisers concluded that the much-criticised study had used sound methods. The study, conducted by researchers from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and the Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, estimated that 655,000 more Iraqis had died since March 2003 than one would expect without the war. The study estimated that 601,027 of those deaths were from violence. The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 per cent certain that the real number of deaths lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636. The conclusion, based on interviews and not a body count, was disputed by some experts, and rejected by the US and British governments. But the chief scientific adviser to the Ministry of Defence, Roy Anderson, described the methods used in the study as "robust" and "close to best practice". Another official said it was "a tried and tested way of measuring mortality in conflict zones".
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#1. To: Ada (#0)
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"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi
"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma K. Gandhi
Which of course means the death toll is probably double 600,000- at least.
But only one name is given. Who are the others? Did he address any of these concerns? No? Well then, ping me when he does. In fact, ping me if the full text of his "memo" is ever available. ****************** 1. The 655,000 estimate is many, many times larger than any other estimate out there (and there are about half a dozen others). Those other estimates were more like 50,000 at the time the John Hopkins study was published. Are they all wrong and only John Hopkins right? Even various anti-war groups such as Human Rights Watch and IraqBodyCount have indicated the John Hopkins' figures are outlandish. So why are FD4UMers so voraciously defending JH's estimates? 2. The report and the peer reviewer of the report (the Lancet) ignored a major discrepancy between the pre-war mortality estimate derived by the John Hopkins team and the estimates derived by other organizations such as the UN and WHO. The UN and WHO, in largers studies, came up with rates between 7-8 per 1000 per year compared to the John Hopkins rate of 5-5.5 per 1000 per year. And these larger rates were estimates that the Lancet had previously endorsed as accurate. This pre-war mortality number is one of the key numbers used in determining excess deaths. If it were as high as the UN and WHO found, then the number of excess deaths would be far less, perhaps a tenth as much. 3. A recent UN Development Program study, http://www.iq.undp.org/ILCS/PDF/Analytical%20Report%20-%20English.pdf, states that there were 24,000 war-related deaths (18,000-29,000, with a 95% confidence level) during the time covered by the Hopkins report. This is approximately ONE-FOURTH the number of excess deaths that Les Roberts' 2004 John Hopkins study found. And the UN used similar techniques - clusters, etc. - but with a much larger data set than John Hopkins. Why is there no mention of this study in the lastest John Hopkin's report (which claims its results verify the first JH report)? Why was this discrepancy not addressed by the Lancet *peer* reviewers? 4. According to the latest John Hopkins report, 92 percent of those who claimed deaths in their families (501 out of 545) were able to provide death certificates to prove it. Therefore, if the study is statistically valid, there should be death certificates available for about 92 percent of the total 655,000 estimated dead. But investigations by media sources that are not friendly to the Bush administration or the war have not found evidence of anywhere near that number. The Los Angeles Times, for example, in a comprehensive investigation found less than 50,000 certificates. Even if that investigation were off a factor of two, there is still a huge discrepancy. To take the Johns Hopkins results seriously, you have to believe that the Iraqi government recorded deaths occurring since the invasion with an accuracy of 92 percent, but then suppressed the bulk of those deaths when releasing official figures, with no one blowing the whistle. And you have to believe that all those dead bodies went unnoticed by the mainstream media and everyone else trying to keep track of the war casualties. Alternatively, you have to believe that the Iraqi government only issues death certificates for a small percentage of deaths, but this random sample happened to get 92 percent by pure chance. 5. A principle author of both John Hopkins studies, Les Roberts, has publically stated he disliked Bush (not unexpected given that he is an active democRAT) and the war. He has admitted that he released the study when he did to negatively influence the election against Bush and the GOP. And he has admitted that most of those he hired to conduct the study in Iraq "HATE" (that was his word) the Americans. None of that is a good basis for conducting a non-partisan study. 6. Nor is the behavior of the Lancet. They've not only failed to ask important questions during their *peer* reviews, they admit they greatly abbreviated that peer review process for the 2004 report so the results could be published in time to influence the 2004 election. They also reported on their own website in 2004, that the deaths estimated by John Hopkins were comprised solely of civilians. But the study made no such claim. In fact, it clearly states that the investigators did not ask those interviewed if the dead were civilians, Saddam military or insurgents. Which leads one to wonder if the Lancet actually read the report they claimed to review. 7. When media interviewers of the lead researchers completely misrepresented the results (for example, calling all the dead "civilians"), those researchers (one being Les Robert) made no effort to correct those falsehoods. And they went on to lie, both directly and by omission, about the methodology they used. This is indisputable. For example, here is what another of the John Hopkins researchers, Richard Garfield, told an interviewer: "First of all, very few people refused or were unable to take part in the sample, to our surprise most people had death certificates and we were able to confirm most of the deaths we investigated." That is a LIE since the first study (which is what he was talking about) indicates they only confirmed 7% of the deaths. And Les Roberts did the exact same thing in another interview. 8. In the Garfield interview mentioned above, he stated "And here you see that deaths recorded in the Baghdad morgue were, for a long period, around 200 per month." Let me repeat that figure ... 200 A MONTH, in one of the most populated and most violent regions in the country during the time in question. And now Les Roberts is asking us to believe that 15,000 (on average) were dying each month in the country since the war began. How could Garfield not have questions about this new estimate given his previous statement? 9. Richard Garfield is another of those who advocated mortality statistics before the war that are widely divergent from those derived using the Les Roberts/John Hopkins interviews. In fact, Richard Garfield said the most probable number of deaths of under-five children from August 1991 to June 2002 would be about 400,000. His *expert* opinion was that the rate in 2002 would was 9-10 percent. That is compared to the Les Robert's estimate of 2.9 percent. So why didn't Roberts or Garfield address this disparity? And note that the Lancet blessed and championed the conclusions of Garfield back in 2002. So why did they ignore the discrepancy during their peer review of Les Roberts' study? 10. There is NO physical evidence whatsoever to support the claim that 655,000 Iraqis were killed from the beginning of the war to mid 2006. There are no killing fields filled with bodies or mass graves. There are no photos of these mountains of bodies. There are no videos of this slaughter or the funerals afterwords. There are no reporters, of ANY nationality, saying they saw these bodies or the slaughter. There are no US or foreign soldiers providing evidence of such a slaughter. There is NO physical evidence. 11. Dahr Jamail is an example of the above. He is viralently anti-American. He has close ties to the insurgents and arabs. So look on his website ( http://dahrjamailiraq.com/) for any indication that 500, much less 100 Iraqis were dying every single day on average back in 2003 and 2004 when he first started reporting from Iraq, which was during the period covered by not only the second but the first John Hopkins study. You won't find any indication. 12. Last year was arguably the most violent since the invasion. Yet even the Iraqis reported the number killed was on the order of 16,000 in that year ... an average of 45 a day. That certainly stands in sharp constrast to the John Hopkins researchers (and their proponents) who claim that more than 500 a day have died every day on average since the invasion began. 13. But the discrepancy is even worse than that. As noted by the author of this blog, http://www.claytoncramer.com/weblog/2006_10_08_archive.html#116069912405842066, "The claim is 654,965 excess deaths caused by the war from March 2003 through July 2006. That's 40 months, or 1200 days, so an average of 546 deaths per day. To get an average of 546 deaths per day means that there must have been either many hundreds of days with 1000 or more deaths per day (example: 200 days with 1000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1000 days with an average of 450 deaths), or tens of days with at least 10,000 or more deaths per day (example: 20 days with 10,000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1180 days with an average of 381 deaths). So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?" 14. The number of dead the John Hopkins methodology gives in Fallujah is so staggering that even the John Hopkins researchers had to discard the data point. Yet in interviews, Les Roberts has responded as if the Fallujah data was accurate. For example, in an interview with Socialist Workers Online (note who he uses to get his message out), when asked why two thirds of all violent deaths were concentrated in this city, Les Roberts didn't respond "the data was wrong or atypical in Fallujah" as it states in his report. No, instead he answered the question as if he thought the data point was representative of what happened in Fallujah as a whole. He said "we think that our findings, if anything, underestimated the number of deaths because of the number of empty and destroyed houses." Then why didn't they keep the Fallujah data point? 15. John Hopkins claims "We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654,965 (392,979 - 942,636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2.5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601,027 (426,369 - 793,663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gun fire." But during World War II, the Allied air forces carpet bombed German cities, using high explosives and incendiaries, and according to The United States Strategic Bombing Survey Summary Report killed an estimated 305,000. So are we to believe that with gun fire rather than bombs, twice as many Iraqis have been killed in the last 3 years, as died in all Germany during WW2 due to strategic bombing of cities which completely flattened entire cities? Likewise, Japan had about 2 million citizens killed (about 2.7 percent of their population), both military and civilian. Many Japanese cities were firebombed during that war (for example, Tokyo had 100,000 people killed in just one raid). Two cities were attacked with nuclear weapons. And yet Les Roberts and his crew want us to believe that just as large a percentage have died in Iraq ... where the Coalition has gone out of its way to avoid civilian deaths? ****************
Here is what IraqBodyCount had to say in summary (and they by no means point out all the problems with the John Hopkins work): ********** From http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php A new study has been released by the Lancet medical journal estimating over 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq. The Iraqi mortality estimates published in the Lancet in October 2006 imply, among other things, that: 1. On average, a thousand Iraqis have been violently killed every single day in the first half of 2006, with less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms; 2. Some 800,000 or more Iraqis suffered blast wounds and other serious conflict-related injuries in the past two years, but less than a tenth of them received any kind of hospital treatment; 3. Over 7% of the entire adult male population of Iraq has already been killed in violence, with no less than 10% in the worst affected areas covering most of central Iraq; 4. Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued; 5. The Coalition has killed far more Iraqis in the last year than in earlier years containing the initial massive "Shock and Awe" invasion and the major assaults on Falluja. And this: If these assertions are true, they further imply: * incompetence and/or fraud on a truly massive scale by Iraqi officials in hospitals and ministries, on a local, regional and national level, perfectly coordinated from the moment the occupation began; * bizarre and self-destructive behaviour on the part of all but a small minority of 800,000 injured, mostly non-combatant, Iraqis; * the utter failure of local or external agencies to notice and respond to a decimation of the adult male population in key urban areas; * an abject failure of the media, Iraqi as well as international, to observe that Coalition-caused events of the scale they reported during the three-week invasion in 2003 have been occurring every month for over a year. In the light of such extreme and improbable implications, a rational alternative conclusion to be considered is that the authors have drawn conclusions from unrepresentative data. In addition, totals of the magnitude generated by this study are unnecessary to brand the invasion and occupation of Iraq a human and strategic tragedy. ************ Here are links that further explore the IBC points. http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/0.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/1.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/2.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/3.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/4.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/5.php http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr14/6.php ***********
And here is something new ... ************* http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1469636.ece Could 650,000 Iraqis really have died because of the invasion? March 05, 2007 Anjana Ahuja The statistics made headlines all over the world when they were published in The Lancet in October last year. More than 650,000 Iraqis – one in 40 of the population – had died as a result of the American-led invasion in 2003. The vast majority of these “excess” deaths (deaths over and above what would have been expected in the absence of the occupation) were violent. The victims, both civilians and combatants, had fallen prey to airstrikes, car bombs and gunfire. Body counts in conflict zones are assumed to be ballpark – hospitals, record offices and mortuaries rarely operate smoothly in war – but this was ten times any other estimate. Iraq Body Count, an antiwar web-based charity that monitors news sources, put the civilian death toll for the same period at just under 50,000, broadly similar to that estimated by the United Nations Development Agency. The implication of the Lancet study, which involved Iraqi doctors knocking on doors and asking residents about recent deaths in the household, was that Iraqis were being killed on an horrific scale. The controversy has deepened rather than evaporated. Several academics have tried to find out how the Lancet study was conducted; none regards their queries as having been addressed satisfactorily. Researchers contacted by The Times talk of unreturned e-mails or phone calls, or of being sent information that raises fresh doubts. Iraq Body Count says there is “considerable cause for scepticism” and has complained that its figures had been misleadingly cited in the The Lancet as supporting evidence. One critic is Professor Michael Spagat, an economist from Royal Holloway College, University of London. He and colleagues at Oxford University point to the possibility of “main street bias” – that people living near major thoroughfares are more at risk from car bombs and other urban menaces. Thus, the figures arrived at were likely to exceed the true number. The Lancet study authors initially told The Times that “there was no main street bias” and later amended their reply to “no evidence of a main street bias”. Professor Spagat says the Lancet paper contains misrepresentations of mortality figures suggested by other organisations, an inaccurate graph, the use of the word “casualties” to mean deaths rather than deaths plus injuries, and the perplexing finding that child deaths have fallen. Using the “three-to-one rule” – the idea that for every death, there are three injuries – there should be close to two million Iraqis seeking hospital treatment, which does not tally with hospital reports. “The authors ignore contrary evidence, cherry-pick and manipulate supporting evidence and evade inconvenient questions,” contends Professor Spagat, who believes the paper was poorly reviewed. “They published a sampling methodology that can overestimate deaths by a wide margin but respond to criticism by claiming that they did not actually follow the procedures that they stated.” The paper had “no scientific standing”. Did he rule out the possibility of fraud? “No.” If you factor in politics, the heat increases. One of The Lancet authors, Dr Les Roberts, campaigned for a Democrat seat in the US House of Representatives and has spoken out against the war. Dr Richard Horton, editor of the The Lancet is also antiwar. He says: “I believe this paper was very thoroughly reviewed. Every piece of work we publish is criticised – and quite rightly too. No research is perfect. The best we can do is make sure we have as open, transparent and honest a debate as we can. Then we'll get as close to the truth as possible. That is why I was so disappointed many politicians rejected the findings of this paper before really thinking through the issues.” Knocking on doors in a war zone can be a deadly thing to do. But active surveillance – going out and measuring something – is regarded as a necessary corrective to passive surveillance, which relies on reports of deaths (and, therefore, usually produces an underestimate). Iraq Body Count relies on passive surveillance, counting civilian deaths from at least two independent reports from recognised newsgathering agencies and leading English-language newspapers ( The Times is included). So Professor Gilbert Burnham, Dr Les Roberts and Dr Shannon Doocy at the Centre for International Emergency, Disaster and Refugee Studies, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Maryland, decided to work through Iraqi doctors, who speak the language and know the territory. They drafted in Professor Riyadh Lafta, at Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, as a co-author of the Lancet paper. Professor Lafta supervised eight doctors in 47 different towns across the country. In each town, says the paper, a main street was randomly selected, and a residential street crossing that main street was picked at random. The doctors knocked on doors and asked residents how many people in that household had died. A person needed to have been living at that address for three months before a death for it to be included. It was deemed too risky to ask if the dead person was a combatant or civilian, but they did ask to see death certificates. More than nine out of ten interviewees, the Lancet paper claims, were able to produce death certificates. Out of 1,849 households contacted, only 15 refused to participate. From this survey, the epidemiologists estimated the number of Iraqis who died after the invasion as somewhere between 393,000 and 943,000. The headline figure became 650,000, of which 601,000 were violent deaths. Even the lowest figure would have raised eyebrows. Dr Richard Garfield, an American academic who had collaborated with the authors on an earlier study, declined to join this one because he did not think that the risk to the interviewers was justifiable. Together with Professor Hans Rosling and Dr Johan Von Schreeb at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Dr Garfield wrote to The Lancet to insist there must be a “substantial reporting error” because Burnham et al suggest that child deaths had dropped by two thirds since the invasion. The idea that war prevents children dying, Dr Garfield implies, points to something amiss. Professor Burnham told The Times in an e-mail that he had “full confidence in Professor Lafta and full faith in his interviewers”, although he did not directly address the drop in child mortality. Dr Garfield also queries the high availability of death certificates. Why, he asks, did the team not simply approach whoever was issuing them to estimate mortality, instead of sending interviewers into a war zone? Professor Rosling told The Times that interviewees may have reported family members as dead to conceal the fact that relatives were in hiding, had fled the country, or had joined the police or militia. Young men can also be associated with several households (as a son, a husband or brother), so the same death might have been reported several times. Professor Rosling says that, despite e-mails, “the authors haven’t provided us with the information needed to validate what they did”. He would like to see a live blog set up for the authors and their critics so that the matter can be clarified. Another critic is Dr Madelyn Hsaio-Rei Hicks, of the Institute of Psychiatry in London, who specialises in surveying communities in conflict. In her letter to The Lancet, she pointed out that it was unfeasible for the Iraqi interviewing team to have covered 40 households in a day, as claimed. She wrote: “Assuming continuous interviewing for ten hours despite 55C heat, this allows 15 minutes per interview, including walking between households, obtaining informed consent and death certificates.” Does she think the interviews were done at all? Dr Hicks responds: “I’m sure some interviews have been done but until they can prove it I don’t see how they could have done the study in the way they describe.” Professor Burnham says the doctors worked in pairs and that interviews “took about 20 minutes”. The journal Nature, however, alleged last week that one of the Iraqi interviewers contradicts this. Dr Hicks says: : “I have started to suspect that they [the American researchers] don’t actually know what the interviewing team did. The fact that they can’t rattle off basic information suggests they either don’t know or they don’t care.” And the corpses? Professor Burnham says that, according to reports, mortuaries and cemeteries have run out of space. He says that the Iraqi team has asked for data to remain confidential because of “possible risks” to both interviewers and interviewees. **************
How is a March 05 article from the Murdoch Times "new" or relevant, for that matter, as compared to Ada's March 27 article that refers to the BBC's Freedom of Information Act findings which were based on real government communications, including those of the Ministry of Health? Honestly, some people need to get an oil and lube job on their brains.
Hmmmmmmm. So Rupert Murdoch supports Bush's propaganda. Who would have thought? Are some of his other propaganda outlets such as Fox News or the New York Post as biased as the Times? By the way kook, if you are correct about your WND shit, your Al Qaeda in Iraq SHIT or any of the other KoOk SHIT that you spew, why doesn't Bush get on national TV tonight and save his Presidency with it? Why does your kook SHIT only come out in moronic goob fooler publications targeted at gullible fools like you? Surely there must be an evil conspiracy to blame for this. What is it? Koook!!!! ROTFLOL!!!!
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Well, for starters, it raises some new questions about the study that Ada's BBC article doesn't address. Perhaps you'd like to address them, scrapper. Or will you just ignore them like you've ignored all the rest of the questions?
Maybe I was not clear with you. I could care less about anything a Murdoch Times article brings up as questions. You believe the Murdoch Times, not me. I believe Drs. Roberts and Burnham. I believe in the world class reputation of the Johns Hopkins Public Health Department. I believe in the integrity of the Lancet. I believe in the revelations the BBC found in for real government email exchanges. Rupert Murdoch's reputation is that of a war monger IsraelFirster. He and his hires don't have any standing in my world.
You're such a trusting fellow. You are so eager to trust two democRATS who admitted they published their first study right before the election to hurt Bush and the GOP and who knowingly hired anti-American Iraqis to conduct the study. Meanwhile all the questions that so many have asked (SOME of which I've noted in this thread) still go unanswered. Why according to that last article I posted (and other sources I've linked in other discussions on this topic), even the JH authors are now refusing to answer simple questions. They apparently can't seem to recall some very important *details* about that *robust* methodology of theirs. ROTFLOL!
Still repeating your bull-chit after being whacked on the other thread, BeASpammer? (1) 87% x 92% is 80%, not 92% (2) The LA Times number of 50,000 only counted totals from one morgue - the Baghdad morgue - and Health Ministry numbers which omitted an entire year and didn't count entire provinces and several of the more violent cities. (3) Doctors in Iraq can write death certificates, not only hospitals and morgues.
Maybe you can find some NewsMax articles saying what a great guy Bush is and how not one single Iraqi has been harmed in the fighting to date. I mean, if you are going to spam us with bullshit, you might as well go all the way. Why stop with the UK's version of Fox News? I know you read NewsMax. All wingnut kooks read NewsMax. And how else would you keep up on what Ron Brown is doing these days?
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And explanation for those who don't know: The researchers asked 87% of those claiming deaths to supply death certificates. The researchers claimed that 92% of them were able to do so. The researchers said that in the other 13% of the cases they simply FORGOT to ask. That they simply FORGOT to ask implies that the folks they asked were a RANDOM sample from amongst all those claiming deaths. That being the case, the percentage of folks who supposedly would have been able to supply death certificates in the group of 13% who they FORGOT to ask should be about the same as in the group of 87% they did ask. In which case, the John Hopkins claim does indeed suggest that 92% of those who claimed deaths had death certificates. Don't you understand statistical methodology, critter? By the way, the vast majority of those death certificates are missing. That is not true. The LATimes article stated ""The Health Ministry gathers numbers from hospitals in the capital and the outlying provinces. If a victim of violence dies at a hospital or arrives dead, medical officials issue a death certificate. Relatives claim the body directly from the hospital and arrange for a speedy burial in keeping with Muslim beliefs. If the morgue receives a body — usually those deemed suspicious deaths — officials there issue the death certificate. Health Ministry officials said that because death certificates are issued and counted separately, the two data sets are not overlapping. The Baghdad morgue received 30,204 bodies from 2003 through mid-2006, while the Health Ministry said it had documented 18,933 deaths from "military clashes" and "terrorist attacks" from April 5, 2004, to June 1, 2006. Together, the toll reaches 49,137." Irrelevant since the first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year and the second JH study concluded that the first study was basically correct. No matter how you spin it, critter, the vast majority of the death certificates from those 600,000 claiming deaths and supposedly able to supply death certificates are missing. Baghdad, by all accounts, is one of the most violent cities in the country and contains by far the largest population. The few other violent cities and provinces could not possibly account for the missing dead unless you wish to claim they've been greatly depopulated. Remember the calculation? That Anbar would have to have lost HALF of its total pre-war population just to account for 300,000 of the missing 550,000 death certificates. And contrary to what you've claimed in the past, the majority of the country is relatively peaceful. Kurdistan in particular. There simply is no way to account for the claimed number of dead. As one blogger noted, "The claim is 654,965 excess deaths caused by the war from March 2003 through July 2006. That's 40 months, or 1200 days, so an average of 546 deaths per day. To get an average of 546 deaths per day means that there must have been either many hundreds of days with 1000 or more deaths per day (example: 200 days with 1000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1000 days with an average of 450 deaths), or tens of days with at least 10,000 or more deaths per day (example: 20 days with 10,000 deaths = 200,000 dead leaves 1180 days with an average of 381 deaths). So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?" Then name ONE doctor from Iraq who has come forward to say he wrote hundreds of death certificates and didn't report them to the Ministry of Health. Go ahead...
Let me tell you how it supposed to be;
SO apropos!
You don't *explain* how 87% x 92% is not 80%, dip-shit. It is, and it's basic math. They asked 87% for certificates, and of that 87%, 92% said they had them. That's an 80% total. Nobody at any time inside or outside of Iraq has ever said they're missing except you. They're not missing. You're lying. (1) The Baghdad morgue received 30,204 bodies from 2003 through mid-2006, while (2) The Health Ministry said it had documented 18,933 deaths from "military clashes" and "terrorist attacks" from April 5, 2004, to June 1, 2006. (3) Together, the toll reaches 49,137" Adding up 30,024 from a single morgue - the Baghdad morgue - to the 2-year total of 18,933 violent deaths reported by the Health Ministry - which freely admitted it did not include many violent cities and several provinces - and you're already at 50,000. 20 average excess violent deaths per day x 30 provinces x 3 years = 657,000 excess violent deaths. Alternatively, 657,000 deaths in a population of 36,000,000 = 1.8% of the total.
BeAChooser, Iraq is a hellhole of Bush and Clinton's making. It has been depopulated - especially among Christians and others of the educated class fleeing for their lives.
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
And the fact that the other 13%, who were RANDOMLY not asked, should have been able to provide death certificates 92% of the time ... if the study is valid ... is BASIC STATISTICS. Then where are they? Because if the John Hopkins study is valid than 92 percent of those who might claim deaths should have had a death certificate issued. And there is no record of that. You are wrong. Haven't you read the second study? It states "In 2004 we estimated that somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths had occurred from the time of the invasion until August 2004. Using data from the 2006 survey to look at the time included in the 2004 survey, we estimated that the number of excess deaths during that time was about 112,000" Now that was over an 18 month period. So I think its safe to say John Hopkins concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in the first TWELVE months. But all those deaths were not evenly distributed throughout the country. They occurred mostly in a few regions. Where surely losses in the hundreds of thousands would have been noticed by a journalist or two. Surely ... Although an incorrect way to look at the problem, this number in itself is remarkable. Because it is only slightly different than the percentage of the German population (or the Japanese population) that died in WW2 ... and that was after strategic bombing of virtually every major city in those countries. Those cities were literally flattened or burned to the ground in many cases. Yet you want us to believe that Iraq, whose cities are mostly still standing, has had comparable losses. It's not a lie. In fact, I've even posted articles to the forum showing that Kurdistan is mostly peaceful and doing quite well now that Saddam is gone. As usual, you simply ignored those articles and regurgitate the same unsupported assertions. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/16/60minutes/main2486679.shtml http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc0110WT100.html http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/02/kurds_ed3_.php But we are talking VIOLENT deaths ... and those get noticed. Not at all. STATISTICALLY there is no way that the number of deaths has been a constant 546 per day since the war began. Some days would be higher and some lower. And as what I posted shows, even if you assumed that most days would only see deaths of 381 per day (which is far more than has ever been reported), you'd have to have a significant number of days (20) with 10,000 deaths. And surely that would have been noticed and reported by someone. I haven't changed my story at all. Les Roberts is a liar and you're unable to name even ONE doctor who says he/she wrote death certificates in Iraq and didn't report them. But you don't just need one doctor, you need thousands of doctors doing that to even begin to account for all the death certificates that John Hopkins claims exist but for which there is no record whatsoever. But you don't even have one.
That may or may not be true. But in any case, that's not the depopulation that AGAviator and John Hopkins are claiming. They aren't talking about folks fleeing for their lives. They are claiming that hundreds of thousands were KILLED in certain regions of the country ... and noone noticed. Noone recorded that. Noone photographed it. Not even the insurgency which could have used such a horrific fact to force us out of the country via world opinion.
That's not how basic statistics works, numbskull. Furthermore, no one ever said that the other 13% couldn't have provided them had they been asked. With the people who they were issued to, you fucking idiot. So who's "missing" them, anyway? Are you alleging the people who receive them are "missing" them - because that is the only way in which a claim of them being "missing" would make any sense. The fact there is "no record of that" with a central government that by its own admission "grossly undercounted" the number of actual deaths does not equate to them being "missing." This is just more of your repetitive spamming demaguguery. You can't even read, then you try to bluster your way out of it by lying. Saying that "somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths had occurred" does not equate to saying "the first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year" In fact, it says precisely the opposite. Do you know the difference between "in excess" and "less than," dummy? Having been shown the absurdity of your claim that 650,000 excess deaths would "grossly depopulate" the country, you now retreat to your fall-back position of "The media hates Bush." It is a correct way to look at it because it puts your exaggerated claims in their proper perspective. During times of war and social chaos no one is going to greatly notice less than a 1% change. The JH definition of "excess deaths" is not limited to people who are killed by military action, brainless troll. I've already cited the cities where there has been violence that regularly makes the headlines. By whom? The "embedded media?" People "noticing" and "reporting" are two different things. More "The media hates Bush so it couldn't have happened." Is Les Roberts lying when he says Iraqi doctors write death certificates, lying SOS? Nobody says there is "no record of them whatsoever" except you, so you are the liar. The LA Times said that the Health Ministry attempts to track death certificates issued by hospitals. There is absolutely nothing said about the Health Ministry tracking death certificates issued by any other source. So fuck you, lying troll.
Don't be disingenuous BeAChooser, you support the American mission in Iraq. So you run flak for it on here. That is fine - just be honest about it. By the way - I am also leery of the numbers - because they are based on statistical projections. Statistical numbers used to determine deaths etc is bullshit as the late great Slobodan Milosevic showed in his cross examination during his kangaroo trial. With that said - the death toll clearly is high in Iraq due to America's invasion and occupational aftermath. I saw it coming - America could not stop (or did not wish to stop) Albanian Muslims from killing and driving out a quarter of a million Christian Serbs from Kosovo so I could not see how they would have prevented the rise in communal violence in Iraq from coming about. I used to laugh and fight vigorously with the idiot Bushbots on Freerepublic who kept bringing up Germany and Japan as reasons why Iraq would turn out the same.
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
Yes it is, AGAviator. The 87% are a RANDOM sample from a group of about 600 claiming deaths. Actually, a very big sample from that group. STATISTICALLY, what holds true for them should hold true for the 13% which were not sampled. If 92 percent of the 87% could supposedly provide death certificates, then BASIC STATISTICS tells us that about 92% of the 13% should also have been able to provide death certificates. To claim otherwise is to display ignorance. Sure thing, AGAviator. You go on believing that. Just like you INSISTED that this graph shows housing prices dropped 16% between 2005 and 2006. So how many do you think the second John Hopkins study claim died in the first year after the invasion began, AGAviator? 112,000? 2/3rds of 112,000? Just what is your number, AGAviator? So are you now claiming the media decided not to report the deaths of hundreds of thousands in places like Anbar because they love Bush? ROTFLOL! Why 1%? Why not 2%? Why not 3%? Do you think no one greatly noticed the loss of 2% of Germany's population? Or 2% of Japans? And look at the destruction that was necessary to kill 2% of those populations. Virtually every city in those countries was FLATTENED. That is not the case in Iraq. The JH definition says that almost all of those 655,000 were killed by VIOLENCE. Now you want us to believe that thugs with guns, not bombs, have killed 2% of the population. And no journalist noticed? No one documented this slaughter? ROTFLOL! Yes, you mentioned Mosul and Kirkuk. Let's examine that claim As one can see from the map below, both Mosul and Kirkuk (Karkuk) are on the very edge of Kurdistan. Let's look at the population of Kurdistan (in Iraq). Kurdistan nominally consists of 6 Governates. Three are almost entirely Kurdish and 3 have mixed populations (these are in dispute). Here is a list of the population in each starting with the three that are almost entirely Kurdish. Sulaymaniyah Governate - 1.8 million Arbil Governate - 1.4 million Dahuk Governate - 0.5 million Diyala Governate - 1.3 million At-Ta'mim Governate (containing Kirkuk) - 1.0 million Ninawa Governorate (containing Mosul) - 2.6 million Now 70% of At Ta'mim is Kurdish. But only 19 percent of Ninawa is Kurdish. The population of Mosul is about 1.7 million of which Kurds are only a small fraction. Although there have been demands by Kurds to include Mosul in the Kurdish regional government, to say Mosul is Kurdish is a bit of a stretch. In any case, one can see that Mosul and Kirkuk combined comprise only about 16% of the overall Kurdish population (in Iraq) and only a small fraction of the total land area (in Iraq). So a claim that violence in these two cities negates the peace that is in place most everywhere else in Kurdistan is simply ridiculous. By someone. Yet this claimed slaughter went unnoticed ... even by arab journalists. In fact, it is still going unnoticed, since to the media a 100 deaths occurring in a day is still remarkable (when JH has been claiming there was an average of nearly 600 a day every day since the war began). Oh so now you are saying the media noticed the deaths but decided not to report them? And it's because they "love Bush"? ROTFLOL! Hard to tell since NOT ONE Iraqi doctor has come forward to say he wrote death certificates and didn't report them to the central government. Tell you what, AGAviator, why don't you get Les Roberts to get the names of the doctors on those death certificates he claims his researchers were shown and go get them to make statements. Surely they noted the names on the certificates. Surely .... Thank you for arguing like so many other 4umers. Here's some more food for thought. ************ http://washparkprophet.blogspot.com/2006/03/iraqi-provinces-map.html Coalition casualties have not been distributed equally by province. This source attributes as many casualties as it can manage from the U.S. led coalition as follows (which is only a small part of total casulties, but is a fairly good indicator of where hot conflict is in Iraq), and is followed by a regional description (SE Iraq=Sumer, N Iraq mostly Kurdistan, remainder central Iraq): *Anbar 808 (Central) Home to cities of Fallujah, Ramadi and Abu Ghraib. ********** Now note where the bulk of the casualties were. In Anbar and Baghdad. Places like At Tamim and Niveveh have been relatively quite. Most of Kurdistan VERY quite. So the bulk of the Iraqi deaths would likely have occurred in Anbar and Baghdad. If logic prevails. And since Bagdad's death certificates have been counted, that leaves only Anbar to account for the bulk of the missing 550,000 death certificates. Since Anbar accounts for 60% of the casualties in the rest of Iraq outside Baghdad, it follows that Anbar should account for about 60% of the missing 550,000 certificates. That's 330,000. Now the population of Anbar is 1.3 million. So you are asking us to believe that 25% of Anbars population was killed between the beginning of the invasion and July of last year. And no one noticed. Sure, AGAviator. ROTFLOL!
Focus. Think about what you are trying to say before hitting the "post" button. Proof read what you have written and delete anything that does not support your thesis. Concise and clear communication is the key to getting your ideas across.
.
this whole argument gets tiresome........supposedly a lot of the supporters of this war are *pro life* people. I would think those people would be horrified if there was ONE death caused by an illegal and immoral invasion and occupation of another country. every dead iraqi was once a living, breathing child of god. if our actions have caused the death of 300,000 or 600,000 or ten, it's wrong. period.
I'm not being disingenuous. I'm arguing a specific point. That one won't find the truth by starting with misinformation and lies. The John Hopkins study is an obvious fraud. And those who continue to use it to try and make their case about the evil American presence in Iraq only discredit their own efforts. But we don't have a "what-if" crystal ball. We can't know what the death toll in Iraq (or elsewhere) would look like today had we not invaded. We do know that the medical situation in Iraq was very serious. The UN and WHO have said that many thousands were dying EVERY MONTH due to lack of food, medicine, clean water, and other items. And they were dying because Saddam was continuing his efforts to develop and keep banned weapons and because he was using the billions he got from legal sales of oil (which were supposed to fund such things) on those weapon programs, his Republican Thugs, building more palaces, bribing UN and non-coalition government officials, feeding the hedonistic lifestyles of his boys and hiding billions of dollars in private bank accounts and between the walls of buildings. We also don't know what al-Zarqawi and his like would have been up to in Iraq now had we not invaded. We know they had planned a mass casualty attack on Jordan (and the US embassy in Jordan) from Baghdad. We know they wouldn't have stopped with just that attack. Others were in the works. And Saddam was turning a blind eye to it all. Saddam's regime was actively helping the Palestinians. There were suicide bomb factories found in Iraq during the invasion. There were foreigners of all types found in Iraq, many of them telling our soldiers they were being trained by Saddam's regime. We don't have a crystal ball to know what havoc and loss of life these types of people might have created had we not invaded ... had Iraq instead been a safe haven much like Afghanistan was for so many years. We also don't know what mischief Saddam would be up to now had we not invaded. We can almost be sure that the sanctions and oversight of Iraq would have ended. That with a clean bill of health from the UN inspectors and the desire of countries like Germany, France and Russia to get on with lucrative oil, equipment and weapons contracts, Iraq would be rearming. We know that Saddam's regime intended to (and quickly could) reconstitute large portions of its WMD arsenal. It kept the plans and critical components to do it. So where would we be now had that happened? Would Iraqis really be any better off or would they be more fodder for another of Saddam's misadventures?
The statistics show that Anbar has been depopulated by that amount - the discrepancy has to do with how you interpret the data - are the missing people mostly dead or mostly refugees who fled? In any case, BeAChooser - are you arguing for justification of the Iraqi mission because fewer people in your estimation have been killed?
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
Ten? How about one? Would you do NOTHING if action might result in one death?
It's makes a big difference. If the missing are mostly refugees who fled, then someone in the John Hopkin's study LIED about the death certificates. And you will not find truth or justice on a foundation of lies.
We can't know what the death toll in Iraq (or elsewhere) would look like today had we not invaded. Why is it our business? Are you for humanitarian wars? You child killing Americans need to mind your own business. We do know that the medical situation in Iraq was very serious. The UN and WHO have said that many thousands were dying EVERY MONTH due to lack of food, medicine, clean water, and other items. Thanks to American sanctions that only American wanted to keep on - see again child killing Americans. We also don't know what al-Zarqawi and his like would have been up to in Iraq now had we not invaded. Dead at the hands of the secular Arab nationalist Ba'athists - many of whom are Christians - if he acted up. We know they had planned a mass casualty attack on Jordan (and the US embassy in Jordan) from Baghdad. I plan on killing every NATO soldier in Kosovo from Belgrade. Wishing a plan is not implementing a plan. We also don't know what mischief Saddam would be up to now had we not invaded. Maybe he would have done us a favor and invaded Iran like the last time when Rumsfled visited him and thanked him for his efforts. "The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
Not really - its interpretation. Makes no difference - does not make things better - does not make America a better occupier.
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
kinda sums up the war.........
Or you LIED about Johns Hopkins. Guess we have to decide who has the credibility here. It is Saturday afternoon. Why don't you just relax. What's that song you guys sing? Have a tequila, Have a tequila, Have a tequila, Right now.
Bunch of internet bums ... grand jury --- opium den ! ~ byeltsin
Tell us, oh great liar, what figure do you consider reliable. We all know that you're slimey and cowardly enough that you cut-n-paste all day long; how 'bout taking a firm position? What number would you accept as reliable - knowing that one, ten or a hundred still amount to disgusting American War Crimes? Take a position, BAC, you flaming asshole!
Hey dumbfuck. Here's how stupid you are. You've been spamming for hundreds of posts about "missing death certificates" based on the completely false premise that you expect the Iraqi Health Ministry to have records of all deaths in Iraq. The LA Times article makes it quite clear that the Iraqi Health Ministry only tracks death certificates issued by hospitals, and by its own admission it couldn't even do that and completely ignored most of the country for more than a year. What's more, the Health Ministry didn't even count the 30,000 death certificates issued by the Baghdad Morgue right across town. Otherwise, the Times could have gotten its 50,000 total just by asking the Health Ministry for the total instead of going to 2 places. So all your hundreds of posts about "missing death certificates" are pure crap from beginning to end. There's not a word of truth in any of them. I've already told you, fucking troll, that when you insult people's intelligence with your mindless spam, you can expect to be insulted right back.
Trolls are people who go on Internet forums to be disingenuous and pick fights - not by posting what you disagree with.
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
1. troll One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument (i'd say chooser fits the bill)
and is disingenuous - what if you are sincere and go to a Bush loving website and try and turn people to your message? Your definition creates a zone of like minded zombies. I can't imagine the empty headedness of such a position.
"The desire to rule is the mother of heresies." -- St. John Chrysostom
Would you say that making up hundreds of posts on 2 websites about "missing death certificates" - when in fact there never were any missing death certificates - is being disingenuous? Just to recap (2) The Health Ministry collects death certificates from hospitals, not from other sources, even morgues across town, (3) Individual doctors can and do write death certificates independently of either the hospitals or the Health Ministry, and (4) Other than hospitals, no one in Iraq appears to be under any obligation to report deaths to the Health Ministry. So, there is no reason to expect the Health Ministry to have an accruate or complete count of all or even most deaths.
Your claim was that the first study stated that the majority of the deaths did not happen during the first year. The first study made no such conclusion and you are lying. Now you're backpedaling trying to get out of your lie. Furthermore, the first study specifically excluded Fallujah, so any numbers from the first study are too low according to their methodology. I'm claiming you're a lying troll, ROTFLOL! Your claim that these deaths would "grossly depopulate" any region is a lie. Now you're doing some more backpedaling. The study does not claim that the "excess violent deaths" are all caused by military action, or even a majority of them are caused by military action. So fuck you, troll. I never said that lying troll. And the study said that 50,000 were not killed by violence. As one can see from this map, both San Diego California and El Paso Texas are on the very edge of the United States. Both Kirkuk and Mosul are in Kurdistan, and both San Diego and El Paso are in the US. So what's your point, fuckwit? Violent deaths include kidnappings and murders. The media only reports spectacular violent deaths from Answer the question, weasel. Is Les Roberts lying when he says that Iraqi doctors can write death certificates independently of the central government. Yes, or no. I don't provide proof to lying trolls. But I'll tell you what. If I prove from an unbiased source that Iraqi doctors do write death certificates, you'll be banished from this site permanently. Not for expressing a contrary opinion, but for making repeated false statements and spamming them hundreds of times. Now put up or shut up.
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#2. To: Ada (#0)
The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 per cent certain that the real number of deaths lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636.
#3. To: Ada (#0)
British government officials have backed the methods used by scientists who concluded that more than 600,000 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion, the BBC reported yesterday.
#4. To: Ada, ALL (#0)
British government officials have backed the methods
But the chief scientific adviser to the Ministry of Defence, Roy Anderson, described the methods used in the study as "robust" and "close to best practice".
#5. To: Ada, ALL (#0)
#6. To: Ada (#0)
#7. To: BeAChooser, Ada (#6)
And here is something new ...March 05, 2007
#8. To: BeAChooser (#6)
#9. To: scrapper2, ALL (#7)
How is a March 05 article from the Murdoch Times "new" or relevant, for that matter,
#10. To: BeAChooser (#9)
Well, for starters, it raises some new questions about the study that Ada's BBC article doesn't address. Perhaps you'd like to address them, scrapper. Or will you just ignore them like you've ignored all the rest of the questions?
#11. To: scrapper2, ALL (#10)
I believe Drs. Roberts and Burnham. I believe in the world class reputation of the Johns Hopkins Public Health Department. I believe in the integrity of the Lancet. I believe in the revelations the BBC found in for real government email exchanges.
#12. To: BeAChooser, scrapper2, christine (#4)
According to the latest John Hopkins report, 92 percent of those who claimed deaths in their families (501 out of 545) were able to provide death certificates to prove it. Therefore, if the study is statistically valid, there should be death certificates available for about 92 percent of the total 655,000 estimated dead. But investigations by media sources that are not friendly to the Bush administration or the war have not found evidence of anywhere near that number. The Los Angeles Times, for example, in a comprehensive investigation found less than 50,000 certificates. Even
#13. To: BeAChooser (#9)
(Edited)
#14. To: AGAviator, scrapper2, christine, all (#12)
(1) 87% x 92% is 80%, not 92%
(2) The LA Times number of 50,000 only counted totals from one morgue - the Baghdad morgue
and Health Ministry numbers which omitted an entire year
and didn't count entire provinces and several of the more violent cities.
(3) Doctors in Iraq can write death certificates, not only hospitals and morgues.
#15. To: beachooser, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#14)
BAC’s the Spam-Man
There's line one from you, nineteen from me.
'Cause I’m the spam-man,
Yeah, I’m the spam-man.
Should five per cent appear too small,
Be thankful I don't spam it all.
'Cause I’m the spam-man,
Yeah, I’m the spam-man.
(if speak about a car;) - I’ll spam about the whole damned street;
(if you try to stay put;) - I’ll spam about your feet;
(if you start to get cold;) - I’ll spam with all the heat;
(if you take a short walk;) - I'll spam about the fleet.
Spam-man!
'Cause I’m the spam-man,
Yeah, I’m the spam-man.
Don't ask me what I do it for, (ah-ah, mister Bush)
If you don't want to pay attention. (ah-ah, mister Blair)
'Cause I’m the spam-man,
Yeah, I’m the spam-man.
Now my advice about those who die, (spam-man)
I’ll put a penny over each eye. (spam-man)
'Cause I’m the spam-man,
Yeah, I’m the spam-man.
And you're working for no one but me.
Never forget - I'm the Spam-man!
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah - BAC's the Spam-Man!
#16. To: SKYDRIFTER (#15)
#17. To: BeAChooser, scrapper2 (#14)
(1) 87% x 92% is 80%, not 92%
And explanation for those who don't know:
By the way, the vast majority of those death certificates are missing.
(2) The LA Times number of 50,000 only counted totals from one morgue - the Baghdad morgue
That is not true. The LATimes article stated ""The Health Ministry gathers numbers from hospitals in the capital and the outlying provinces. If a victim of violence dies at a hospital or arrives dead, medical officials issue a death certificate.
If the morgue receives a body — usually those deemed suspicious deaths — officials there issue the death certificate.
and Health Ministry numbers which omitted an entire year
Irrelevant since the first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year
No it did not conclude that. Another lie. Baghdad, by all accounts, is one of the most violent cities in the country and contains by far the largest population. The few other violent cities and provinces could not possibly account for the missing dead unless you wish to claim they've been greatly depopulated.
What an idiot you are, claiming that a total death toll over 3 years of 650,000 - an average of under 220,000 per year - in a country of 36 million will "greatly depopulate" that country. Remember the calculation?
I sure do, numbskull. And contrary to what you've claimed in the past, the majority of the country is relatively peaceful. Kurdistan in particular.
What a lying SOS you are. Kurdistan has the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, and also has peshmarga thugs who simply eliminate anybody who is opposed to their alliance with the US government. There simply is no way to account for the claimed number of dead. As one blogger noted, "The claim is 654,965 excess deaths caused by the war from March 2003 through July 2006. That's 40 months, or 1200 days, so an average of 546 deaths per day.
And how many people die of normal causes every day in a country of 36 million the size of California, shit for brains? So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?"
Strawman. (3) Doctors in Iraq can write death certificates, not only hospitals and morgues.
Then name ONE doctor from Iraq who has come forward to say he wrote hundreds of death certificates and didn't report them to the Ministry of Health.
You've changed your story. You used to claim that Les Roberts was lying when he said that Iraqi doctors write death certificates. Now you concede they do, but they had to have reported them to the government who had to have kept accurate records of them. That's typical of your trolling. Change your argument as often as you need to.
#18. To: AGAviator, BeAChooser, scrapper2 (#17)
#19. To: AGAviator, ALL (#17)
You don't *explain* how 87% x 92% is not 80%, dip-shit. It is, and it's basic math.
Nobody at any time inside or outside of Iraq has ever said they're missing except you. They're not missing. You're lying.
"the first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year"
No it did not conclude that. Another lie.
What an idiot you are, claiming that a total death toll over 3 years of 650,000 - an average of under 220,000 per year - in a country of 36 million will "greatly depopulate" that country.
Alternatively, 657,000 deaths in a population of 36,000,000 = 1.8% of the total.
"And contrary to what you've claimed in the past, the majority of the country is relatively peaceful. Kurdistan in particular."
What a lying SOS you are.
And how many people die of normal causes every day in a country of 36 million the size of California, shit for brains?
"So, where are the news accounts of tens of days with 10,000 or more deaths?"
Strawman.
"Then name ONE doctor from Iraq who has come forward to say he wrote hundreds of death certificates and didn't report them to the Ministry of Health."
You've changed your story. You used to claim that Les Roberts was lying when he said that Iraqi doctors write death certificates.
#20. To: Destro, AGAviator, ALL (#18)
BeAChooser, Iraq is a hellhole of Bush and Clinton's making. It has been depopulated - especially among Christians and others of the educated class fleeing for their lives.
#21. To: BeAChooser, scrapper2 (#19)
(Edited)
And the fact that the other 13%, who were RANDOMLY not asked, should have been able to provide death certificates 92% of the time ... if the study is valid ... is BASIC STATISTICS.
Nobody at any time inside or outside of Iraq has ever said they're missing except you. They're not missing. You're lying.
Then where are they?
Because if the John Hopkins study is valid than 92 percent of those who might claim deaths should have had a death certificate issued. And there is no record of that.
"The first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year"
No it did not conclude that. Another lie.
You are wrong. Haven't you read the second study? It states "In 2004 we estimated that somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths had occurred from the time of the invasion until August 2004.
Using data from the 2006 survey to look at the time included in the 2004 survey, we estimated that the number of excess deaths during that time was about 112,000" blah blah blah
But all those deaths were not evenly distributed throughout the country. They occurred mostly in a few regions. Where surely losses in the hundreds of thousands would have been noticed by a journalist or two. Surely ...
Alternatively, 657,000 deaths in a population of 36,000,000 = 1.8% of the total.
Although an incorrect way to look at the problem, this number in itself is remarkable.
Because it is only slightly different than the percentage of the German population (or the Japanese population) that died in WW2 ... and that was after strategic bombing of virtually every major city in those countries. Those cities were literally flattened or burned to the ground in many cases. Yet you want us to believe that Iraq, whose cities are mostly still standing, has had comparable losses.
I've even posted articles to the forum showing that Kurdistan is mostly peaceful and doing quite well now that Saddam is gone.
And how many people die of normal causes every day in a country of 36 million the size of California, shit for brains?
But we are talking VIOLENT deaths ... and those get noticed.
Not at all. STATISTICALLY there is no way that the number of deaths has been a constant 546 per day since the war began. Some days would be higher and some lower. And as what I posted shows, even if you assumed that most days would only see deaths of 381 per day (which is far more than has ever been reported), you'd have to have a significant number of days (20) with 10,000 deaths. And surely that would have been noticed and reported by someone.
You've changed your story. You used to claim that Les Roberts was lying when he said that Iraqi doctors write death certificates.
I haven't changed my story at all. Les Roberts is a liar and you're unable to name even ONE doctor who says he/she wrote death certificates in Iraq and didn't report them.
But you don't just need one doctor, you need thousands of doctors doing that to even begin to account for all the death certificates that John Hopkins claims exist but for which there is no record whatsoever.
#22. To: BeAChooser, AGAviator (#20)
That may or may not be true. But in any case, that's not the depopulation that AGAviator and John Hopkins are claiming. They aren't talking about folks fleeing for their lives. They are claiming that hundreds of thousands were KILLED in certain regions of the country
#23. To: AGAviator, scrapper2, Destro, ALL (#21)
"And the fact that the other 13%, who were RANDOMLY not asked, should have been able to provide death certificates 92% of the time ... if the study is valid ... is BASIC STATISTICS."
That's not how basic statistics works, numbskull.
"The first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year"
No it did not conclude that. Another lie.
"You are wrong. Haven't you read the second study? It states "In 2004 we estimated that somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths had occurred from the time of the invasion until August 2004."
You can't even read, then you try to bluster your way out of it by lying.
Saying that "somewhere in excess of 100,000 deaths had occurred" does not equate to saying "the first John Hopkins study concluded that less than 100,000 of the 655,000 died in that first year"
In fact, it says precisely the opposite.
"Using data from the 2006 survey to look at the time included in the 2004 survey, we estimated that the number of excess deaths during that time was about 112,000" blah blah blah
Do you know the difference between "in excess" and "less than," dummy?
you now retreat to your fall-back position of "The media hates Bush."
During times of war and social chaos no one is going to greatly notice less than a 1% change.
The JH definition of "excess deaths" is not limited to people who are killed by military action, brainless troll.
I've already cited the cities where there has been violence that regularly makes the headlines.
"But we are talking VIOLENT deaths ... and those get noticed."
By whom? The "embedded media?"
People "noticing" and "reporting" are two different things. More "The media hates Bush so it couldn't have happened."
Is Les Roberts lying when he says Iraqi doctors write death certificates, lying SOS?
So fuck you, lying troll.
*Baghdad 575 (Central) Capitol City-Province.
*Salaheddin 256 (Central) Home to cities of Tikrit and Samarra.
*Nineveh 171 (Central-Kurdistan) Home to city of Mosul.
*Babel 118 (Sumer-Central) Home to city of Hillah and ruins of Babylon.
*Diyala 82 (Central)
*Dhi Qar 67 (Sumer) Home to ruins ancient city of Ur.
*Basra 58 (Sumer) Home to cities of Basra, Umm Qasr and Eden.
*At Tamim 37 (Kurdistan-Central) Home to the city of Kirkuk.
*Wasit 33 (Sumer) Home to city of Al Kut.
*Najaf 29 (Sumer) Home to cities of Najaf and Kufah.
*Karbala 28 (Sumer)Home to Shi'ite holy shrine to Imam Hussein.
*Maysan 19 (Sumer) Home of "Marsh Arabs"; 1991 Shi'ite uprising.
*Qadisiyyah 17 (Sumer)
*Muthanna 6 (Sumer)
*Arbil 1 (Kurdistan) Home to ethnic Turks and Assyrians.
*Sulaimaniya 0 (Kurdistan)
*Dahuk 0 (Kurdistan)
#24. To: BeAChooser (#23)
#25. To: Ada (#0)
#26. To: Destro, ALL (#22)
Don't be disingenuous BeAChooser,
With that said - the death toll clearly is high in Iraq due to America's invasion and occupational aftermath.
#27. To: BeAChooser, AGAviator, scrapper2 (#23)
Now the population of Anbar is 1.3 million. So you are asking us to believe that 25% of Anbars population was killed between the beginning of the invasion and July of last year.
#28. To: kiki, ALL (#25)
if our actions have caused the death of 300,000 or 600,000 or ten, it's wrong. period.
#29. To: Destro, ALL (#27)
The statistics show that Anbar has been depopulated by that amount - the discrepancy has to do with how you interpret the data - are the missing people mostly dead or mostly refugees who fled?
#30. To: BeAChooser, AGAviator, scrapper2 (#26)
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein greets Donald Rumsfeld, then special envoy of President Ronald Reagan, in Baghdad on December 20, 1983.
#31. To: BeAChooser (#29)
It's makes a big difference. If the missing are mostly refugees who fled, then someone in the John Hopkin's study LIED about the death certificates. And you will not find truth or justice on a foundation of lies.
#32. To: BeAChooser (#29)
you will not find truth or justice on a foundation of lies.
#33. To: Fish Breath (#29)
(Edited)
someone in the John Hopkin's study LIED about the death certificates
#34. To: beachooser, Minerva, Christine, Brian S, Honway, Robin, Aristeides, Red Jones, Diana, Kamala, All (#28)
#35. To: BeAChooser, ..., Destro (#23)
Fuck you lying troll.
Arguing like so many other 4umers.
#36. To: AGAviator (#35)
I've already told you, fucking troll
#37. To: Destro (#36)
Trolls are people who go on Internet forums to be disingenuous
#38. To: christine (#37)
(Edited)
One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument
#39. To: Destro, Christine (#36)
(Edited)
Trolls are people who go on Internet forums to be disingenuous and pick fights
(1) The Health Ministry never issued any death certificates to begin with, so they can't be "missing" what they never had,
#40. To: BeAChooser, Christine, SKYDRIFTER (#23)
So how many do you think the second John Hopkins study claim died in the first year after the invasion began, AGAviator? 112,000? 2/3rds of 112,000? Just what is your number, AGAviator?
So are you now claiming the media decided not to report the deaths of hundreds of thousands in places like Anbar because they love Bush? ROTFLOL!
During times of war and social chaos no one is going to greatly notice less than a 1% change.
Why 1%? Why not 2%? Why not 3%?
Virtually every city in those countries was FLATTENED. That is not the case in Iraq.
The JH definition says that almost all of those 655,000 were killed by VIOLENCE. Now you want us to believe that thugs with guns, not bombs, have killed 2% of the population.
As one can see from the map below, both Mosul and Kirkuk (Karkuk) are on the very edge of Kurdistan.
Oh so now you are saying the media noticed the deaths but decided not to report them? And it's because they "love Bush"? ROTFLOL!
Is Les Roberts lying when he says Iraqi doctors write death certificates, lying SOS?
Hard to tell since NOT ONE Iraqi doctor has come forward to say he wrote death certificates and didn't report them to the central government.
Tell you what, AGAviator, why don't you get Les Roberts to get the names of the doctors on those death certificates he claims his researchers were shown and go get them to make statements. Surely they noted the names on the certificates. Surely ....
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