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Title: Forecaster: "Very Active" Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted
Source: Associated Press
URL Source: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hur ... -colorado-state-forecast_N.htm
Published: Apr 3, 2007
Author: Associated Press
Post Date: 2007-04-03 11:04:11 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 21

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes, including five intense or major hurricanes, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Colorado State University researcher William Gray's forecast says there is a 74% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline this year, compared with the average of 52% over the past century.

The forecast calls for a total of 17 named storms. The five intense or major hurricanes are expected to have sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Last season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered "near normal" but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists. None hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Atlantic | El Ni | William Gray | Colorado State University Gray's research team said a surprise late El Niño contributed to the calmer season last year. El Niño — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there, Gray said.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December 2006-January 2007, but it dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"We do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year," Klotzbach said.

Long-term averages in the Atlantic are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The 2005 season was the worst on record in the U.S., with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The most devastating storm was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

Poster Comment:

Indeed, last years predictions were way wrong...

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