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Title: The real deal?
Source:
National Post
URL Source: http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/ ... 490-41c9-8b1f-106fef8763c6&k=0
Published: Apr 20, 2007
Author: Lawrence Solomon
Post Date: 2007-04-20 12:52:18 by intotheabyss
Keywords: None
Views: 189
Comments: 8
Against the grain: Some scientists deny global warming exists Lawrence Solomon, National Post Published: Friday, February 02, 2007 Astrophysicist Nir Shariv, one of Israel's top young scientists, describes the logic that led him -- and most everyone else -- to conclude that SUVs, coal plants and other things man-made cause global warming. Step One Scientists for decades have postulated that increases in carbon dioxide and other gases could lead to a greenhouse effect. Step Two As if on cue, the temperature rose over the course of the 20th century while greenhouse gases proliferated due to human activities. Statistics needed -- The Deniers Part I Warming is real -- and has benefits -- The Deniers Part II The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science -- The Deniers Part III Polar scientists on thin ice -- The Deniers Part IV The original denier: into the cold -- The Deniers Part V The sun moves climate change -- The Deniers Part VI Will the sun cool us? -- The Deniers Part VII The limits of predictability -- The Deniers Part VIII Look to Mars for the truth on global warming -- The Deniers Part IX Limited role for C02 -- the Deniers Part X Dr. Shariv, a prolific researcher who has made a name for himself assessing the movements of two-billion-year-old meteorites, no longer accepts this logic, or subscribes to these views. He has recanted: "Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media. "In fact, there is much more than meets the eye." Dr. Shariv's digging led him to the surprising discovery that there is no concrete evidence -- only speculation -- that man-made greenhouse gases cause global warming. Even research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-- the United Nations agency that heads the worldwide effort to combat global warming -- is bereft of anything here inspiring confidence. In fact, according to the IPCC's own findings, man's role is so uncertain that there is a strong possibility that we have been cooling, not warming, the Earth. Unfortunately, our tools are too crude to reveal what man's effect has been in the past, let alone predict how much warming or cooling we might cause in the future. All we have on which to pin the blame on greenhouse gases, says Dr. Shaviv, is "incriminating circumstantial evidence," which explains why climate scientists speak in terms of finding "evidence of fingerprints." Circumstantial evidence might be a fine basis on which to justify reducing greenhouse gases, he adds, "without other 'suspects.' " However, Dr. Shaviv not only believes there are credible "other suspects," he believes that at least one provides a superior explanation for the 20th century's warming. "Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th-century global warming," he states, particularly because of the evidence that has been accumulating over the past decade of the strong relationship that cosmic- ray flux has on our atmosphere. So much evidence has by now been amassed, in fact, that "it is unlikely that [the solar climate link] does not exist." The sun's strong role indicates that greenhouse gases can't have much of an influence on the climate -- that C02 et al. don't dominate through some kind of leveraging effect that makes them especially potent drivers of climate change. The upshot of the Earth not being unduly sensitive to greenhouse gases is that neither increases nor cutbacks in future C02 emissions will matter much in terms of the climate. Even doubling the amount of CO2 by 2100, for example, "will not dramatically increase the global temperature," Dr. Shaviv states. Put another way: "Even if we halved the CO2 output, and the CO2 increase by 2100 would be, say, a 50% increase relative to today instead of a doubled amount, the expected reduction in the rise of global temperature would be less than 0.5C. This is not significant." The evidence from astrophysicists and cosmologists in laboratories around the world, on the other hand, could well be significant. In his study of meteorites, published in the prestigious journal, Physical Review Letters, Dr. Shaviv found that the meteorites that Earth collected during its passage through the arms of the Milky Way sustained up to 10% more cosmic ray damage than others. That kind of cosmic ray variation, Dr. Shaviv believes, could alter global temperatures by as much as 15% --sufficient to turn the ice ages on or off and evidence of the extent to which cosmic forces influence Earth's climate. In another study, directly relevant to today's climate controversy, Dr. Shaviv reconstructed the temperature on Earth over the past 550 million years to find that cosmic ray flux variations explain more than two-thirds of Earth's temperature variance, making it the most dominant climate driver over geological time scales. The study also found that an upper limit can be placed on the relative role of CO2 as a climate driver, meaning that a large fraction of the global warming witnessed over the past century could not be due to CO2 -- instead it is attributable to the increased solar activity. CO2 does play a role in climate, Dr. Shaviv believes, but a secondary role, one too small to preoccupy policymakers. Yet Dr. Shaviv also believes fossil fuels should be controlled, not because of their adverse affects on climate but to curb pollution. "I am therefore in favour of developing cheap alternatives such as solar power, wind, and of course fusion reactors (converting Deuterium into Helium), which we should have in a few decades, but this is an altogether different issue." His conclusion: "I am quite sure Kyoto is not the right way to go." Lawrence Solomon@nextcity.com
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#4. To: intotheabyss (#0)
If you have ten thousand pounds on one side of a delicate scale and ten thousand pounds on the other side, and you add one pound to either side, the scale will tip. Sure man-made CO2 plays a minor role. It just might be the starring role, though. For me the jury is still out. However, it certainly can't be a GOOD thing to burn tons and tons of fossil fuels day and night all over the surface of the globe, can it? The people who oppose COz emission regulations are arguing from at best, a zero effect position.
The evidence does not agree with this: Warming on Mars Suggests Solar, Not Human, Cause, Scientist Says Further, we’re headed for a "steep cooling" in 15-20 years 28 Feb 07 - Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—not human- induced—cause, says Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia. Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures. This Mars warming, says Abdussamatov, "is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun." "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said. "Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets. (I agree.) Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories. "Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said. By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars. All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years. These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth. (I agree. The Milankovitch cycle is called the "Pacemaker of the Ice Ages.") Abdussamatov also dismisses the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface. He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars. (I agree.) Abdussamatov suggests that the sun holds something quite different in store. "The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years." (I agree.) "Abdussamatov's work has not been well received by other climate scientists." See the full article, and the other scientist’s comments, at: Global Warming on Triton Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL 28 Jun 1998 - NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and several ground-based instruments show that temperatures on Neptune's largest moon have increased dramatically since the Voyager space probe in 1989. So much so, in fact, that Triton's surface of frozen nitrogen is turning into gas, making its thin atmosphere denser by the day. "At least since 1989, Triton has been undergoing a period of global warming," says astronomer James Elliot, professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Percentage-wise, it's a very large increase." Elliot and colleagues from the Lowell Observatory and Williams College reported their findings in the June 25 issue of Nature. Triton's 5 percent increase in temperature from about -392 to -389 degrees F would be like the Earth experiencing a jump of some 22 degrees F in just nine years. Global Warming on Jupiter 04 May 06 - Jupiter is growing a new red spot and the Hubble Space Telescope is photographing the scene. "Red Spot Jr." as it is being called, formed after three white oval-shaped storms—two of which were at least 90 years old—merged between 1998 and 2000. The study was led jointly by Imke de Pater and Philip Marcus of University of California, Berkeley. "The storm is growing in altitude," de Pater said. "Before when they were just ovals they didn't stick out above the clouds. Now they are rising." This growth signals a temperature increase by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit in that region, she said. Global Warming on Pluto 9 Oct 02 - Astronomers today said Pluto is undergoing global warming in its thin atmosphere even as it moves farther from the Sun on its long, odd-shaped orbit. Pluto's atmospheric pressure has tripled over the past 14 years, indicating a stark temperature rise, the researchers said. The change is likely a seasonal event, much as seasons on Earth change as the hemispheres alter their inclination to the Sun during the planet's annual orbit. They suspect the average surface temperature increased about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, or slightly less than 2 degrees Celsius. Pluto remains a mysterious world whose secrets are no so easily explained, however. The warming could be fueled by some sort of eruptive activity on the small planet, one astronomer speculated. Though Pluto was closest to the Sun in 1989, a warming trend 13 years later does not surprise David Tholen, a University of Hawaii astronomer involved in the discovery. "It takes time for materials to warm up and cool off, which is why the hottest part of the day on Earth is usually around 2 or 3 p.m. rather than local noon," Tholen said. "This warming trend on Pluto could easily last for another 13 years."
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Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestCO2 does play a role in climate, Dr. Shaviv believes, but a secondary role, one too small to preoccupy policymakers. Yet Dr. Shaviv also believes fossil fuels should be controlled, not because of their adverse affects on climate but to curb pollution.
#5. To: bluedogtxn (#4)
Sure man-made CO2 plays a minor role. It just might be the starring role, though.
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