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Immigration
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Title: Sex Crimes and Illegal Immigrants: Misuse of Statistics for Politics
Source: bad math; good math
URL Source: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/20 ... imes_and_illegal_immigra_1.php
Published: Jun 2, 2007
Author: Mark C. Chu-Carroll
Post Date: 2007-06-02 14:49:58 by richard9151
Keywords: None
Views: 270
Comments: 14

Yet another reader sent me a great bad math link. (Keep 'em coming guys!) This one is an astonishingly nasty slight of hand, and a great example of how people misuse statistics to support a political agenda. It's by someone named "Dr. Deborah Schurman-Kauflin", and it's an attempt to paint illegal immigrants as a bunch of filthy criminal lowlifes. It's titled "The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration: Nearly One Million Sex Crimes Committed by Illegal Immigrants in the United States."

With a title like that, you'd think that she has actual data showing that nearly one million sex crimes were committed by illegal immigrants, wouldn't you? Well, you'd be wrong.

After conducting a 12 month in-depth study of illegal immigrants who committed sex crimes and murders for the time period of January 1999 through April 2006 , it is clear that the U.S. public faces a dangerous threat from sex predators who cross the U.S. borders illegally.

There were 1500 cases analyzed in depth. They included: serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides, and child molestation committed by illegal immigrants. Police reports, public records, interviews with police, and media accounts were all included. Offenders were located in 36 states, but it is clear, that the most of the offenders were located in states with the highest numbers of illegal immigrants. California was number one, followed by Texas, Arizona, New Jersey, New York, and Florida.

Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S. population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended. Based on this 2% figure, which is conservative, there are approximately 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States.

This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day. The 1500 offenders in this study had a total of 5,999 victims. Each sex offender averaged 4 victims. This places the estimate for victimization numbers around 960,000 for the 88 months examined in this study.

That's the meat of the paper - the rest is essentially a list of statistics about the 1500 crimes she actually studied.

So her argument is:

Of the illegal immigrants arrested for a crime, 2% were sex offenders.

The total numbers of illegal immigrants is approximately 12 million.

Therefore, you can determine the number of sex offenders in the entire population of illegal immigrants by multiplying the size of the population (12 million) by 2%, giving you 960,000.

If you actually pay attention to the numbers and how she's trying to slip them past you, it's pretty obvious what kind of scam she's pulling, but she tries to mask it behind a lot of talk about kinds of sex crimes, and why we should expect the number to be high among illegal immigrants.

Here's the trick. 2% of the convicted criminals who happen to be illegal immigrants are guilty of some kind of sex crime. Not 2% of the population of illegal immigrants. The population of convicted criminals is quite different from the population of people as a whole.

To give you an idea: according to this article by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety, in 2001, approximately 5% of the population of people in state prisons were guilty of sex offenses. The estimate of the number of people in the general population guilty of sex crimes varies - but it's generally cited as somewhere between 1/3 of 1%, and 1%.

Now - the number of people in prison is different from the number of people arrested - so those two numbers are not directly comparable. But it should give you an idea of how different statistics about people convicted of crimes can be different from the statistics about the public in general.

So, looking at real statistics, the percentage of illegals guilty of sexual crimes is probably not particularly different from the percentage of non-illegals guilty of sexual crimes. And neither percentage says much of anything about the number of guilty individuals in the population as a whole.

In summary, Dr. Schurman-Kauflin is nothing but another two-bit racist who's trying to trick people using bad math.

These is yet another part to this, and it has to do with racial profiling, WHICH IS ILLEGAL WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. Therefore, it would be impossible for anyone to collect any meaningful data such as is claimed to have been done in the cited study.

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#1. To: lodwick, who knows what evil, noone222, Jethro Tull, christine, HOUNDDAWG, tom007, Tauzero, YertleTurtle, Rupert_Pupkin, RickyJ, Diana, robin, all (#0)

Jus a little ol PING!!

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-02   16:54:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

two-bit racist

while this writer may have made some accurate points, he undid it, imo, with throwing out the "racist" label. there was nothing in Dr. Schurman-Kauflin's research that showed her to be a "two bit racist."

christine  posted on  2007-06-02   18:28:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

there was nothing in Dr. Schurman-Kauflin's research that showed her to be a "two bit racist."

Oh, no, nothing at all, Christine, you know, except the entire report.....

Oh, that and the fact that it is against the law, within the United States, to collect and pass out such information BASED ON RACIAL PROFILING within AND/OR FROM the government, which, by the way, includes the police. And if you had bothered to check, you could have found a couple of different sites that deplore the LACK OF KNOWLEDGE WITHIN THE POLICE ABOUT HOW THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION HAS IMPACTED THE REPORTING OF SEX CRIMES IN THE UNITED STATES, because no one knows. Because it is against the law to collect the data, Christine.

That being said, what other reason, other than the promotion of racism and FEAR MONGERING, could this Jewish bimbo intend?

By the way, are you aware that she is from Atlanta? Ummmmmm..... who else is in Atlanta.... ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... OH! RIGHT! The SPLC! And, Morris Dees!!

Say, Christine, what do you say.... do you think that this PhD bimbo is.... possibly..... you know..... tied in with the SPLC continuing education of the police within the US efforts? Wanna make a bet on it?

And what is her degree in, Christine? Maybe.... phycho-babel? Probably? Ummmmm?

Anything else, Christine?

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-02   18:42:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

These is yet another part to this, and it has to do with racial profiling, WHICH IS ILLEGAL WITHIN THE UNITED STATES.

Oh really Ricardo? Please identify any American citizen who has been arrested, charged and/or prosecuted for racial profiling. The term is nothing more than a shield used by the political correct to thwart common sense. As much as you’d love to add another layer of law on Americans, racial profiling isn’t a crime.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-06-02   18:51:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

racial profiling isn’t a crime.

Better lay off, Jethro, before more ignorance leaks through. Although god knows, you have enough to spare. The following is taken directly from the post I just PUT up today titled.... wait for it, Jethro...... WAIT.... WAIT..... are you ready?

HERE IT COMES!!

RACIAL PROFILING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

... While racial profiling is illegal, ...

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-02   18:57:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Because it is against the law to collect the data, Christine. - Ricardo9151

****
*********

Ricardo, the data you claim is ILLEGAL to gather, is in fact gathered, and the various states receive federal money for the illegal aliens in their prison system.

Justice Department Grants To Jurisdictions Incarcerating Criminal Illegal Aliens; List of Recipients (AK - ID) (1/3).

From: US Newswire

 | Date: October 30, 2001

 | More results for: reporting illegal alien crime

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-06-02   19:04:02 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

While racial profiling is illegal, ...

Where in this nation has anyone been arrested for rp?

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-06-02   19:16:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Justice Department

Did you check this one, Jethro? Cause the last one I checked on that you posted.... you know, the one from the FBI? Was a complete fabrication.

So, did you bother to check this one?

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-02   23:54:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

"When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended."

Is not the same as:

Here's the trick. 2% of the convicted criminals who happen to be illegal immigrants are guilty of some kind of sex crime.

It is Mark, in fact, who is lacking in reading comprehension.

Under the assumption that illegals apprehended by ICE are representative of the general illegal population, and under the assumption that there are 12 million or so illegals, you get 240,000 illegal aliens who are sex offenders.

Therefore, you can determine the number of sex offenders in the entire population of illegal immigrants by multiplying the size of the population (12 million) by 2%, giving you 960,000.

Mark also apparently has only a passing acquaintance with arithmetic.

This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day. The 1500 offenders in this study had a total of 5,999 victims. Each sex offender averaged 4 victims.

Under the assumption that the offenders in the study are representative of the population of offenders, you indeed get nearly 1 million crimes. However, this is not the same thing as a million victims, or 1 million crimes distinct in time. A gang rape of one woman by 10 men would count as 10 under this. A woman raped several times over the course of a few days would also count as several.

Of course you would never stoop to taking a bribe. Could you sell me a deeply out-of-the-money option?

Tauzero  posted on  2007-06-03   0:05:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Where in this nation has anyone been arrested for rp?

Jeez, Jethro, you don`t ever learn, do you. OK, hold on to your socks, kiddo!

http://www.crimedoctor. com/racial_profiling_2.htm

... the illegal practice of racial profiling by the police and others ...

http://www.a clu.org/racialjustice/racialprofiling/index.html

... Racial Profiling is any police or private security practice in which a person is treated as a suspect because of his or her race, ethnicity, nationality or religion. ...

http://usliberals.about.com/b/ a/209024.htm

... It is illegal for police in New York to conduct searches based on racial profiling ...

http: //www.jameslebowlaw.com/PracticeAreas/RacialDiscrimination.asp

... Few people understand that racial discrimination is illegal regardless of whether it is a government entity or private party committing the discriminatory actions. James LeBow, Attorney & Counselor, in New York, wants you to know that if you have been the victim of racism, ..

...Racial Profiling by Police

http://www.amnestyusa.org/Racial_Profiling/Report__Threat_and_Humiliatio n/page.d o?id=1106664&n1=3&n2=850&n3=1298

... While as of the writing of this report 29 states have passed laws concerning racial profiling,...

... In June 2003, the Department of Justice issued its Guidance Regarding the Use of Race by Federal Law Enforcement Agencies forbidding racial profiling by federal law enforcement officials. ...

http://www1 .umn.edu/irp/publications/profilingoped061301.html

... Racial profiling is undemocratic and unconstitutional ...

http://www.foxnews.com /story/0,2933,164355,00.html

... Conceding that racial profiling (search) by police currently is illegal ...

Boy, that was hard! Took all of 3 or 4 minutes.

Now, let me make something totally clear here, Jethro. What I am posting is REALITY; it has nothing to do with what I PERSONALLY believe or think. GOT THAT? But it is the law in the nation, the United States, where YOU live.

This also means that everytime you see something BASED ON RACIAL PROFILING that comes from, supposedly, a law inforcement agency of whatever WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, it is a complete fabrication, just like that FBI report you posted.

And why is that, Jethro? Because it is against the law to racial profile!!!

GOT THAT, Jethro?

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-03   0:15:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day.

You are not to good at math, either, are you. The first time I read this, I caught on by the title: anytime someone throws a million this or a million that around, it is pure BS.

BUT, let us do a little math, shall we?

93 sex offenders x 365 days in a year, WOW! 33,945 IN ONE YEAR! But, we have 7 years to play with here, so.... 237,615!!!! Doncha ya just love numbers?

And least we forget; 12 serial sexual offenders PER DAY for 365 days = 4,380 PER YEARS and for 7 years, just a few.... 30,660!!!

268,275 sex offenders crossing the border..... Amazing, and all of this comes from.... what? Interviewing, or so we are lead to believe, 1500 sex offenders.

And, she continues in the report that this comes from ASSUMPTIONS! And you do not have a problem with that. Amazing, as long as it fits in/with your attitude, right?

Why don`t you read some of the posts I put up about the CIA and drugs into Los Angelas, or about NAFTA, and learn a little. Oh, and then do some research and learn all about this Jewish bimbo and how she ties into the SPLC (uh, if you do not understand, that is the Southren Proverty Law Center) and Morris Dees before you come back with some more.

The Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

richard9151  posted on  2007-06-03   0:34:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

93 sex offenders x 365 days in a year, WOW! 33,945 IN ONE YEAR! But, we have 7 years to play with here, so.... 237,615!!!! Doncha ya just love numbers?

Indeed I do.

93 per day / .02 = 4650 total people entering illegally per day. Sounds reasonable to me.

Inventory = flow rate * flow time. You have just shown (undoubtedly unintentionally) that the mean duration of illegal status (flow time) is approximately seven years, after which either the illegal obtains permission of some kind or departs.

Of course you would never stoop to taking a bribe. Could you sell me a deeply out-of-the-money option?

Tauzero  posted on  2007-06-03   1:02:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

... While racial profiling is illegal, ...

...it is used for every single serial killer. Since most of them are "white males" -- the perp is automatically assumed to be a 'white male' - even the Beltway Snipers were initially assumed to be 'white males' if you go back and check the news reports.

Nice try, but you lost on this one.

America is not at war. The military is at war. America is at the mall and the Congress is out to lunch.

mirage  posted on  2007-06-03   2:31:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

U nited States Code Title 42, Section 1981

This section of the Federal Code is a powerful tool for preventing future racial discrimination by private entities or the state and Federal Governments. The United States Congress places such a high value on preventing racism that the law provides for what is called "treble damages" in some cases, meaning that a victim who receives a judgment against a discriminatory company or entity will receive triple the recovery he or she normally would receive.

Ricardo, as I suspected you’re unable to cite either the specific legislation or give one instance where an American has been arrested and prosecuted for racial profiling. Neither exists to my knowledge. RP is nothing more than a tool used by the police/authorities and its use is discouraged internally via administrative sanctions, NOT CRIMINAL SANCTIONS. I've read your links. The Jew-laden ACLU is doing its best introduce legislation that will criminalize RP (I pray they do as it might toss the Affirmative Action rulings on their ass). In another link an attorney claims he'll sue on behalf of the aggrieved under a federal civil rights statute (see above). That's quite a stretch, and again RP isn't mentioned in the statute.

Nice try you wacky Mexican wannabe.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2007-06-03   17:51:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

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