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Title: Sex Crimes and Illegal Immigrants: Misuse of Statistics for Politics
Source:
bad math; good math
URL Source: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/20 ... imes_and_illegal_immigra_1.php
Published: Jun 2, 2007
Author: Mark C. Chu-Carroll
Post Date: 2007-06-02 14:49:58 by richard9151
Keywords: None
Views: 364
Comments: 14
Yet another reader sent me a great bad math link. (Keep 'em coming guys!) This one is an astonishingly nasty slight of hand, and a great example of how people misuse statistics to support a political agenda. It's by someone named "Dr. Deborah Schurman-Kauflin", and it's an attempt to paint illegal immigrants as a bunch of filthy criminal lowlifes. It's titled "The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration: Nearly One Million Sex Crimes Committed by Illegal Immigrants in the United States." With a title like that, you'd think that she has actual data showing that nearly one million sex crimes were committed by illegal immigrants, wouldn't you? Well, you'd be wrong. After conducting a 12 month in-depth study of illegal immigrants who committed sex crimes and murders for the time period of January 1999 through April 2006 , it is clear that the U.S. public faces a dangerous threat from sex predators who cross the U.S. borders illegally. There were 1500 cases analyzed in depth. They included: serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides, and child molestation committed by illegal immigrants. Police reports, public records, interviews with police, and media accounts were all included. Offenders were located in 36 states, but it is clear, that the most of the offenders were located in states with the highest numbers of illegal immigrants. California was number one, followed by Texas, Arizona, New Jersey, New York, and Florida. Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S. population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended. Based on this 2% figure, which is conservative, there are approximately 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States. This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day. The 1500 offenders in this study had a total of 5,999 victims. Each sex offender averaged 4 victims. This places the estimate for victimization numbers around 960,000 for the 88 months examined in this study. That's the meat of the paper - the rest is essentially a list of statistics about the 1500 crimes she actually studied. So her argument is: Of the illegal immigrants arrested for a crime, 2% were sex offenders. The total numbers of illegal immigrants is approximately 12 million. Therefore, you can determine the number of sex offenders in the entire population of illegal immigrants by multiplying the size of the population (12 million) by 2%, giving you 960,000. If you actually pay attention to the numbers and how she's trying to slip them past you, it's pretty obvious what kind of scam she's pulling, but she tries to mask it behind a lot of talk about kinds of sex crimes, and why we should expect the number to be high among illegal immigrants. Here's the trick. 2% of the convicted criminals who happen to be illegal immigrants are guilty of some kind of sex crime. Not 2% of the population of illegal immigrants. The population of convicted criminals is quite different from the population of people as a whole. To give you an idea: according to this article by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety, in 2001, approximately 5% of the population of people in state prisons were guilty of sex offenses. The estimate of the number of people in the general population guilty of sex crimes varies - but it's generally cited as somewhere between 1/3 of 1%, and 1%. Now - the number of people in prison is different from the number of people arrested - so those two numbers are not directly comparable. But it should give you an idea of how different statistics about people convicted of crimes can be different from the statistics about the public in general. So, looking at real statistics, the percentage of illegals guilty of sexual crimes is probably not particularly different from the percentage of non-illegals guilty of sexual crimes. And neither percentage says much of anything about the number of guilty individuals in the population as a whole. In summary, Dr. Schurman-Kauflin is nothing but another two-bit racist who's trying to trick people using bad math. These is yet another part to this, and it has to do with racial profiling, WHICH IS ILLEGAL WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. Therefore, it would be impossible for anyone to collect any meaningful data such as is claimed to have been done in the cited study.
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#2. To: richard9151 (#0)
while this writer may have made some accurate points, he undid it, imo, with throwing out the "racist" label. there was nothing in Dr. Schurman-Kauflin's research that showed her to be a "two bit racist."
Oh, no, nothing at all, Christine, you know, except the entire report..... Oh, that and the fact that it is against the law, within the United States, to collect and pass out such information BASED ON RACIAL PROFILING within AND/OR FROM the government, which, by the way, includes the police. And if you had bothered to check, you could have found a couple of different sites that deplore the LACK OF KNOWLEDGE WITHIN THE POLICE ABOUT HOW THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION HAS IMPACTED THE REPORTING OF SEX CRIMES IN THE UNITED STATES, because no one knows. Because it is against the law to collect the data, Christine. That being said, what other reason, other than the promotion of racism and FEAR MONGERING, could this Jewish bimbo intend? By the way, are you aware that she is from Atlanta? Ummmmmm..... who else is in Atlanta.... ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... OH! RIGHT! The SPLC! And, Morris Dees!! Say, Christine, what do you say.... do you think that this PhD bimbo is.... possibly..... you know..... tied in with the SPLC continuing education of the police within the US efforts? Wanna make a bet on it? And what is her degree in, Christine? Maybe.... phycho-babel? Probably? Ummmmm? Anything else, Christine?
**** Ricardo, the data you claim is ILLEGAL to gather, is in fact gathered, and the various states receive federal money for the illegal aliens in their prison system. From: US Newswire | Date: October 30, 2001 | More results for: reporting illegal alien crime WASHINGTON, Oct 30, 2001 The following is a list of jurisdictions eligible to receive FY 2001 SCAAP funds (Alaska - Idaho) (1 of 3): All 50 states, the District of Columbia and two U.S. territories will receive federal funds totaling over $550 million from the Justice Department's Office of Justice Programs (OJP) to help pay the costs of incarcerating illegal aliens who have committed serious crimes in the United States and have been convicted and sentenced for their felony offenses. The State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP), authorized under the 1994 Crime Act and administered by OJP's Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) in conjunction with the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), provides financial assistance to states and localities in paying the costs of incarcerating illegal aliens in state and local correctional systems. While the size of the payments made through the SCAAP program is tied to the number of criminal aliens incarcerated and to corrections officers' salaries within a jurisdiction, the funds do not have to be used in prison systems. SCAAP funds go back into the state's or locality's general fund and can be used for any purpose. "The expenses of incarcerating illegal criminal aliens are very real costs that deeply impact local and state governments," said Assistant Attorney General Deborah J. Daniels. "Since the 1994 Crime Act, OJP has awarded approximately $3.3 billion to states and localities to pay for housing criminal aliens. Helping states bear these costs is just one part of an overall strategy to manage and improve upon our existing network of borders and enforce our current immigration policies." Program applicants increased by 25 percent this year, and awards increased from 413 in FY 2000 to 517 in FY 2001. State and local awards to Arizona ($23 million), California ($225 million), Florida ($28 million), New York ($94 million) and Texas ($45 million) total approximately 75 percent of the available FY 2001 funding. Los Angeles County and New York City were two of the largest localities to receive awards totaling $29 million and $32 million, respectively. In addition, the District of Columbia, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will receive funds. "We've streamlined the electronic application process and will continue to work closely with states and localities to encourage program participation and ensure accurate and complete reporting," added Daniels. Eligible applicants included states and localities that exercised authority with respect to the incarceration of an undocumented criminal alien. Attached is a list of the FY 2001 SCAAP recipients. Additional information about BJA or its programs can be found on its Internet Website at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bja. For additional information about the OJP and its programs, go to the OJP Website at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov. For additional information, contact Sheila Jerusalem at 202-616-3227 -- ---- Jurisdictions Eligible To Receive FY 2001 SCAAP Funds (Alaska - Idaho) Alaska State of Alaska: 494,888 State Total $494,888 Alabama State of Alabama: 285,372 County of Montgomery: 48,668 State Total $334,040 Arkansas Carroll County, Arkansas: 9,754 County of Benton: 90,749 County of Washington Arkansas: 121,466 State of Arkansas: 96,894 State Total $318,863 Arizona COUNTY OF COCHISE: 281,727 City of Mesa: 362,721 County of Navajo: 74,741 County of Pima: 733,848 County of Yavapai: 128,793 Gila County: 16,088 Maricopa County: 3,177,429 Mohave County: 79,380 Pinal County: 147,180 State of Arizona: 18,464,899 Yuma County: 347,262 State Total $23,814,068 California 459,616 COUNTY OF STANISLAUS: 83,144 COUNTY OF VENTURA: 1,374,339 COUNTY OF YUBA: 31,197 City and County of San Francisco: 1,869,609 City of Anaheim: 20,995 Contra Costa County: 844,743 County of Butte: 78,536 County of Calaveras: 11,895 County of Fresno: 2,071,339 County of Kern: 1,368,339 County of Los Angeles: 29,725,299 County of Orange: 6,596,749 County of Placer: 100,791 County of Plumas: 23,875 County of Riverside: 2,008,099 County of Sacramento: 1,374,269 County of San Bernardino: 804,444 County of San Diego: 4,891,349 County of San Luis Obispo: 212,486 County of Santa Clara: 2,692,369 County of Shasta: 179,580 County of Sonoma: 1,251,129 County of Sutter: 71,083 County of Tuolumne: 19,513 Del Norte County: 12,426 El Dorado County: 142,854 GLENN COUNTY: 22,376 Imperial County: 284,841 Inyo County: 25,557 Marin County: 459,053 Merced County, Merced CA: 200,930 Monterey County: 1,157,489 Napa County: 311,700 SANTA CRUZ COUNTY: 469,532 San Joaquin County California: 438,954 San Mateo County: 2,410,979 Santa Barbara County: 1,043,939 Siskiyou County: 18,259 Solano County: 133,780 State of California: 158,326,999 Tulare County: 2,058,629 State Total $225,683,084 Colorado City and County of Denver: 1,749,599 County of Adams: 359,468 County of Arapahoe: 300,404 County of Boulder: 487,760 County of Jefferson: 304,177 County of Larimer: 92,917 County of Morgan: 141,237 County of Pueblo: 167,973 County of Weld: 263,850 El Paso County: 279,598 Garfield County, Colorado: 116,908 State of Colorado: 3,982,669 State Total $8,246,560 Connecticut State of Connecticut: 1,778,579 State Total $1,778,579 District of Columbia District of Columbia: 780,571 State Total $780,571 Delaware State of Delaware: 211,983 State Total $211,983 Florida Broward County: 1,914,969 Collier County: 308,561 County of Alachua: 54,756 County of Bradford: 899 County of Charlotte: 22,614 County of Clay: 33,178 County of Hillsborough: 1,101,529 County of Levy: 23,663 County of Marion: 9,628 County of Martin: 189,799 County of Seminole: 61,825 County of Sumter: 23,559 County of Taylor: 259 Glades County: 5,343 Hendry County: 54,992 Highlands County: 84,104 Miami-Dade County: 775,212 Palm Beach County: 216,600 Pasco County: 26,851 Pinellas County: 521,320 St. Lucie County: 103,480 State of Florida: 23,090,599 State Total $28,623,740 Georgia Augusta Georgia: 11,236 County of Baldwin: 2,294 County of Chatham: 59,043 County of Cherokee: 59,760 County of Crisp: 17,559 County of Floyd: 17,216 County of Greene: 2,925 County of Hall: 161,308 County of Houston: 13,506 County of Muscogee: 21,189 County of Tift: 20,151 State of Georgia: 3,014,059 State Total $3,400,246 Hawaii State of Hawaii: 454,637 State Total $454,637 Iowa County of Black Hawk: 2,617 County of Mahaska: 1,980 County of Monroe: 13,016 County of Story: 63,363 County of Wapello: 5,449 Johnson County: 32,379 State of Iowa: 481,248 The County of Davis: 12,025 The County of Louisa: 10,265 Woodbury County: 179,201 Wright County: 4,834 State Total $806,377 Idaho Blaine County: 54,858 Bonneville County: 35,896 Canyon County: 69,762 County Of Bingham: 25,144 County of Ada: 205,961 County of Adams: 374 County of Bannock: 17,213 County of Gooding: 17,120 County of Latah: 2,976 County of Power: 6,667 County of Twin Falls: 48,612 Jefferson County: 3,112 State of Idaho: 642,842 Washington County: 8,115 State Total $1,138,652 (more, more) http://www.usnewswire.com -0- /U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/ 10/30 12:37 Copyright 2001, U.S. Newswire CONTACT: Bureau of Justice Assistance, 202-307-070 Copyright (C) 2001, U.S. Newswire News Provided by COMTEX (http://www.comtexnews.com)
Did you check this one, Jethro? Cause the last one I checked on that you posted.... you know, the one from the FBI? Was a complete fabrication. So, did you bother to check this one?
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Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latesttwo-bit racist
#3. To: christine (#2)
there was nothing in Dr. Schurman-Kauflin's research that showed her to be a "two bit racist."
#6. To: richard9151 (#3)
Because it is against the law to collect the data, Christine. - Ricardo9151
********* Justice Department Grants To Jurisdictions Incarcerating Criminal Illegal Aliens; List of Recipients (AK - ID) (1/3).
#8. To: Jethro Tull (#6)
Justice Department
Replies to Comment # 8.