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Editorial
See other Editorial Articles

Title: Are doom & gloomers ever right?
Source: Mister Clean
URL Source: [None]
Published: Aug 9, 2007
Author: Mister Clean
Post Date: 2007-08-09 10:09:25 by Mister Clean
Keywords: economic collapse, terrorism, global warming
Views: 2321
Comments: 213

Are doom & gloomers ever right in their numerous and freqent predictions of disaster?

I'm not simply talking about the garden variety doom & gloomers who are constantly predicting a massive economic collapse or continually warning about the evil plans of the New World Order. I also include the al-Qaeda fearmongers who are constantly predicting nuclear Jihad in America. I'm also talking about the global warming alarmists who predict that the east coast of the US will eventually be submerged in a major flood.

These groups of doom & gloomers have different agendas for sure but they're basically the same in their fearmongering and pessimissm. It's as if they want a disaster to happen so they can screech "I told you so!"

Fortunately, these prophets of disaster are as wrong in their predictions as they are negative and pessimistic.

I really wonder why America is full of these types of people.

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#44. To: Mister Clean (#0)

Are doom & gloomers ever right in their numerous and freqent predictions of disaster?

Many times they are. It's just that you've lived in a historically anomalous time in a historically anomalous place so from your point of reference they've always been wrong.

America is a tiny part of the wold population that has had a good bit of fortune. What is commonplace elsewhere would be considered a fat tail event here. The thing about fat tail events though is the longer you go without one, the more likely one is going to happen.

SmokinOPs  posted on  2007-08-09   11:31:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: SmokinOPs (#44)

Many times they are.

When? Where? What?

Mister Clean  posted on  2007-08-09   11:34:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#52. To: Mister Clean (#48)

When? Where? What?

When the Mongols entered northern Persia you don't think there was a guy in Baghdad talking about doom and gloom for the city in a few years?

You don't think anybody in Poland thought there were hard times coming when Hitler became Chancellor of Germany?

SmokinOPs  posted on  2007-08-09   11:41:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#59. To: SmokinOPs (#52)

When the Mongols entered northern Persia you don't think there was a guy in Baghdad talking about doom and gloom for the city in a few years?

You don't think anybody in Poland thought there were hard times coming when Hitler became Chancellor of Germany?

When I talk about doom & gloomers, I'm talking about people who are CONTINUALLY warning about horrors that await us just around the corner, horrors that never materialize.

I gave 3 examples in my original post: economic collapse, terrorism and global warming.

I'm not talking about smart people who could see trouble ahead based on specific, credible information. A lot of military guys saw disaster in Iraq, but that doesn't put them in the same category as the doom & gloomer who is continually hyperventilating about al-Qaeda getting nukes.

Mister Clean  posted on  2007-08-09   11:49:45 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#63. To: Mister Clean (#59)

I'm not talking about smart people who could see trouble ahead based on specific, credible information.

Holy crap, that's a caveat and a half.

So in the case of economic collapse (or some sub variant), 3000 years of the continuous failure of fiat money systems doesn't count as "specific, credible information???

Axenolith  posted on  2007-08-09   11:58:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#68. To: Axenolith (#63)

So in the case of economic collapse (or some sub variant), 3000 years of the continuous failure of fiat money systems doesn't count as "specific, credible information???

The doom & gloomers who have been predicting an economic collapse for years have been consistently wrong.

That's really the point. That's the kind of doom & gloomer I'm referring to, the chicken littles who always see disaster ahead yet the disaster they see never materializes.

Mister Clean  posted on  2007-08-09   12:04:48 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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