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Title: Hurricane Dean
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URL Source: http://noaa
Published: Aug 16, 2007
Author: noaa
Post Date: 2007-08-16 20:50:00 by IndieTX
Keywords: hurricane, dean
Views: 87
Comments: 2
000 WTNT44 KNHC 162031 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE.
Poster Comment: Who is responsible for putting MSY in a crater surrounded by water? "Ahh..you can thank the French."
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#1. To: All (#0)
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT COULD REMAIN STRONGER. After 72 hours, forecast models diverge significantly between central Gulf of Mexico or westward to Bay of Campeche.
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition The storm claimed its first fatality, after a 62-year-old man disappeared in a rain-swollen river while trying to save a cow, police told The Associated Press. Another storm system, remnants of Tropical Storm Erin, triggered widespread flooding in Texas that contributed to at least seven deaths, according to local news reports. Dean, a quickly strengthening storm, crossed the 111-mph Category 3 threshold on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale Friday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Watch Dean rake islands and Erin soak Texas » Forecasters predicted Dean would approach Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Monday with maximum sustained winds around 150 mph. That's just under the 155-mph threshold which would make Dean a most-powerful Category 5 hurricane, reported CNN meteorologist Bonnie Schneider. Friday Dean pounded the islands of Dominica, St. Lucia and Martinique. Residents of Martinique told The Associated Press that Dean triggered landslides and scores of people were left homeless by floods and 100-mph winds. "The sea swelled, crossed the road and invaded homes," a woman identified as Lucie told a local radio station, according to AP. Don't Miss WKMG: Girl flees fearing Dean KPRC: Erin remnants kill 4 In Depth: Hurricanes I-Report: Are you there? Send us your stories Dangerous winds ripped a corrugated metal roof off a pediatric ward at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries, AP reported. No injuries were reported, AP said, and patients had been evacuated. Flooding and wind-swept debris have turned St. Lucia into "a total mess," state radio reported, according to AP. Storm surges shoved sea-wall boulders onto roads, AP reported, and a boat was seen sitting on a road after forces of nature carried it from the sea. Dean is forecast to dump up to 2 inches of rain on Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with isolated amounts of up to 5 inches. The hurricane is expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours, the center said. See Hurricane Dean's projected route » The storm is forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane, with winds in excess of 131 mph, before bearing down on Jamaica on Sunday morning. Forecasters posted tropical storm warnings for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Josephine Marcelus of Morne Rouge, Martinique, described the storm to The Associated Press as it slammed the island. "We don't have a roof ... everything is exposed. We tried to save what we could," Marcelus told AP. "We sealed ourselves in one room, praying that the hurricane stops blowing over Martinique." At 1:45 p.m. ET, Dean's center was about 175 miles (280 kilometers) west of Martinique, moving west at about 22 mph (35 kilometers per hour), according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters said the storm could dump as much as 10 inches of rain in some mountainous areas, which could trigger flash floods and mudslides. Storm surge flooding as high as 4 feet was also forecast, with battering waves. Tropical storm warnings continue for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Grenada, Saba, St. Eustatius, Montserrat, Antigua, Nevis, St. Kitts, Barbuda, St. Maarten and Anguilla. Tropical storm warnings for Barbados, St. Vincent and The Grenadines have been discontinued, the hurricane center said. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions, including winds of at least 39 mph, are expected within 24 hours. Erin dumps rain on Texas Erin made landfall early Thursday near the city of Lamar, north of Corpus Christi, as a tropical depression, with winds of 35 mph. However, one of Erin's rain bands parked itself over the city of Houston, dumping 6 inches of rain in about four hours. Video footage showed cars and trucks trying to navigate roads that were largely underwater. As of 4 p.m. ET, the city had received between 6 and 8 inches of rain and authorities had performed 70 high-water rescues, according to the office of Houston Mayor Bill White. See dramatic images as Erin soaks Texas » One person was killed and another was injured when a storage unit behind a grocery store collapsed, White's office said. CNN affiliate KHOU reported the roof of an office building also collapsed, but there were no injuries. The region between Corpus Christi, Austin and Houston has already surpassed its average yearly rainfall totals, with some areas getting as much as 4 feet of rain so far this year. Austin has had nearly 40 inches of rain as of Thursday, about an inch above that city's normal average for the entire year. Corpus Christi has had about 33 inches so far this year, 15 inches more than it usually has by mid-August. And Houston has had 40 inches of precipitation as of Thursday, nearly a foot more than it usually has at this time of year, according to National Weather Service archives. E-mail to a friend CNN's Jason Rovou contributed to this report. Law Enforcement Against Prohibition5AM 17AUG UPDATE
"There is no 'legitimate' Corporation by virtue of it's very legal definition and purpose."
-- IndieTx
#2. To: DEAN CAT 3, 5 potential, 1st person Killed (#0)
CNN) -- Dean strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane Friday with dangerous 125 mph winds as it pounded Caribbean islands and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.
"There is no 'legitimate' Corporation by virtue of it's very legal definition and purpose."
-- IndieTx
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