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Editorial See other Editorial Articles Title: Towards Eco-Affluence: The Meaning of the 21st Century By Jurgen Reinhoudt : BIO| 17 Aug 2007 It takes ambition (at a minimum) to write a book titled "The Meaning of the 21st century." James Martin, a graduate of Oxford who made a fortune in the computer industry, has done an admirable job in this endeavor: after talking with a diverse group of leaders and thinkers such as Hernando de Soto, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Gordon Moore [of Intel fame and Moore's law], and others, he put his own thoughts on paper, outlining the challenges facing humanity in the next 100 years. Martin is environmentally conscious, but not ideological. For example, he compliments Friedrich Hayek: To the contrary, the book celebrates human ingenuity, research, innovation and free enterprise as offering cures to the (environmental) problems that plague us. Free-marketers will not only admire his belief in free enterprise ("Distributed ideas will spread: Vast numbers of young people, especially young entrepreneurs contribute to ideas") but will also second his criticism of government subsidies to polluting industries. As one example, Martin mentions the German coal industry: since 1960, the German government has spent more than $200 billion subsidizing it. This year, subsidies will amount to more than $100,000 per German coal mine worker. So extensive are the German subsidies that mine owner Deutsche Steinkohle, "will receive more in government subsidies ($3.3 billion) than it will from selling coal ($2.9 billion)." These subsidies have contributed to extensive environmental damage: in the densely populated Ruhr region where mining has taken place, "the ground level...has slowly but irreversibly dropped, by as much as 65 feet in some places." Cleaning up the environmental mess will cost an additional $7-25 billion, depending on whose estimates you rely on. Martin notes that governments around the world spend a fortune subsidizing the fishing industry, which he argues contributes to overfishing: scientists estimate that "the number of large predatory fish in the oceans has fallen by 90 percent since the 1950s." Dwindling stocks of fish have prompted many commercial fishers to adopt voluntary fishing restrictions, out of self-interest, in places like Scotland, to prevent what happened in Canada: Martin embraces solar and wind energy as alternative sources of energy, but is more enthusiastic about the potential of new nuclear technology for large-scale electricity generation. Pebble-bed reactors are a product of so-called "fourth generation" nuclear technology: pebble-bed reactors shut down automatically by virtue of their design if the temperature gets too hot so there is no risk of a meltdown. Unlike the uranium used by today's nuclear power plants, the uranium used by pebble-bed reactors is only 9% enriched, making it extremely difficult to divert for nuclear weapon use , reducing proliferation. Unlike the waste produced by today's nuclear power plants, the waste of pebble bed reactors (small balls with hard silicon-carbide shells) can be easily stored . Pebble-bed reactors are also smaller and far more affordable than conventional reactors, making them useful for developing nations. South Africa is set to export such reactors in just a few years, and China is set to build many of them in its quest to reduce energy dependence. Martin encourages the West not to wait in taking full advantage of new technologies in energy generation and reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas. Fourth-generation nuclear energy will pave the way towards Martin's (not unrealistic) dream of "eco-affluence," where capitalism is propelled to ever greater heights of sustainability and environmental friendliness by innovation and environmentally friendly entrepreneurialism. He has some tough words for mainstream environmental ideology: If homeowners in developing countries were to officially own their homes, they could harness this capital and use it as collateral for loans to start a business or make an investment. At present, this is not possible, but, writes Martin, "a Western company...might set a goal that the time taken to obtain a title and a deed to a property never exceeds two weeks...Helping [developing countries] re-engineer their systems would be far more beneficial than giving financial aid to the present cesspits." Moreover, Martin writes that stifling bureaucracies in developing countries make it very difficult for developing nations to participate in the coming worldwide technological boom: In such a wide-ranging book, it is inevitable that there be certain contradictions: in one section, Martin comments that helping developing nations "reengineer their systems would be far more beneficial than giving financial aid to the present cesspits." Later, he writes that the poorest nations "need enough official development assistance from richer countries to reach out for the lowest rung of the development ladder." Martin opposes government bureaucracies, but it's somewhat unclear how many of the environmentally-friendly restrictions could be implemented with a small and nimble government. These issues do not detract from the general quality of the book, however, given that its purpose is to get readers to think. If anything, the book is thought-provoking, and its lack of anti-Americanism, bitterness and venom, combined with an optimism and a faith in innovation to bring about a better world are refreshing. Martin differs from many other writers who have environmental concern by virtue of his tremendous optimism—his faith in human creativity, human ingenuity, and scientific innovation to make life better for mankind and the earth in general. Martin's book combines an apt eye for future political, technological and economic developments with environmental concern, much experience in the field of information technology and an entrepreneur's passion for technological discoveries. Those interested in environmentally-friendly capitalism will particularly enjoy this book. What, in the end, is the meaning of the 21st century? It will be to find the proper ethics and common sense to handle the remarkable technologies coming our way.
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