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Title: Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/
URL Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/04/climatechange
Published: Sep 5, 2007
Author: David Adam, environment correspondent
Post Date: 2007-09-05 01:51:48 by robin
Ping List: *Global Climate Change*     Subscribe to *Global Climate Change*
Keywords: None
Views: 384
Comments: 17

The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at record lows, scientists have announced.

Experts say they are "stunned" by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as the UK disappearing in the last week alone.

So much ice has melted this summer that the Northwest passage across the top of Canada is fully navigable, and observers say the Northeast passage along Russia's Arctic coast could open later this month.

If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030.

Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver, said: "It's amazing. It's simply fallen off a cliff and we're still losing ice."

The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began thirty years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002.

Dr Serreze said: "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our childrens' lifetimes."

The new figures show that sea ice extent is currently down to 4.4m square kilometres (1.7m square miles) and still falling.

The previous record low was 5.3m square kilometres in September 2005. From 1979 to 2000 the average sea ice extent was 7.7m square kilometres.

The sea ice usually melts in the Arctic summer and freezes again in the winter. But Dr Serreze said that would be difficult this year.

"This summer we've got all this open water and added heat going into the ocean. That is going to make it much harder for the ice to grow back."

Changes in wind and ocean circulation patterns can help reduce sea ice extent, but Dr Serreze said the main culprit was man-made global warming.

"The rules are starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse gases." Subscribe to *Global Climate Change*

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 15.

#1. To: robin, *Agriculture-Environment* (#0)

"The rules are starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse gases."

Bullshit! There are no sun spots, it's going to be a cold winter with an early fall.

farmfriend  posted on  2007-09-05   2:10:49 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: farmfriend (#1)

Carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 800,000 years, the latest study of ice drilled out of Antarctica confirms.

The in-depth analysis of air bubbles trapped in a 3.2km-long core of frozen snow shows current greenhouse gas concentrations are unprecedented.

The East Antarctic core is the longest, deepest ice column yet extracted.

Project scientists say its contents indicate humans could be bringing about dangerous climate changes.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5314592.stm

I find the ice core samples data to be most revealing.

robin  posted on  2007-09-05   11:18:55 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: robin, *Agriculture-Environment* (#11)

I find the ice core samples data to be most revealing.

It's erroneous data! Ice cores are not good proxies for past climate.

Link

CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time

by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc.

The Truth About Ice Cores
Because carbon dioxide ice core records are regarded as a foundation of the man-made global warming hypothesis, let us dwell on them for a while.

The basic assumption behind the CO2 glaciology is a tacit view that air inclusions in ice are a closed system, which permanently preserves the original chemical and isotopic composition of gas, and thus that the inclusions are a suitable matrix for reliable reconstruction of the pre-industrial and ancient atmosphere. This assumption is in conflict with ample evidence from numerous earlier CO2 studies, indicating the opposite (see review in Jaworowski et al. 1992b).

Proxy determinations of the atmospheric CO2 level by analysis of ice cores, reported since 1985, have been generally lower than the levels measured recently in the atmosphere. But, before 1985, the ice cores were showing values much higher than the current atmospheric concentrations (Jaworo- wski et al. 1992b). These recent proxy ice core values re- mained low during the entire past 650,000 years (Siegenthaler et al. 2005)—even during the six former interglacial warm periods, when the global temperature was as much as 5°C warmer than in our current interglacial!

This means that either atmospheric CO2 levels have no discernible influence on climate (which is true), or that the proxy ice core reconstructions of the chemical composition of the ancient atmosphere are false (which is also true, as shown below).

It was never experimentally demonstrated that ice core records reliably represent the original atmospheric composi- tion. Other proxies demonstrated that many millions of years ago, CO2 levels in the atmosphere reached, at various times, 377, 450, and even 3,500 ppmv (Kurschner et al. 1996, Royer et al. 2001), and that during the past 10,000 years these levels were, as a rule, higher than 300 ppmv, fluctuating up to 348 ppmv (Kurschner et al. 1996, Royer et al. 2001, Wagner et al. 1999, Wagner et al. 2002). The results of these last studies prove false the assertion of stabilized Holocene CO2 con- centrations of 270 ppmv to 280 ppmv until the industrial revolution.

The results of the cited pre-1985 studies are strongly sup- ported by direct CO2 measurements, carried out in the pre- industrial and 20th-Century atmosphere (see below). About 2 billion years ago, the CO2 atmospheric level was 100 or perhaps even 1,000 times higher than today. According to today’s climate models, the Earth would have been too hot for life at that time (Ohmoto et al. 2004). However, geologic evidence suggests there was not a Venus-style, “runaway warming.” Instead, life flourished then in the oceans and land, with such enormously high levels of this “gas of life,” from which our bodies and all living creatures are built (Godlewski 1873). Yet, Greens now call this gas a dangerous “pollutant.”

There is part of the paper. I recommend reading the whole thing.

farmfriend  posted on  2007-09-05   18:16:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: farmfriend (#13)

There seems to be some disagreement among scientists about global warming, but not much about the value of and the data from the ice core samples.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/warnings/stories/

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/

http://www.wri.org/climate/pubs_content_text.cfm?ContentID=3912

robin  posted on  2007-09-05   18:28:45 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: robin (#14)

There seems to be some disagreement among scientists about global warming, but not much about the value of and the data from the ice core samples.

You didn't read that paper I linked did you? There are numerous studies, cited in that paper, that disprove the ice cores as proxies. I'm currently helping with a soon to be peer reviewed paper showing that the ice cores are bad proxies. BTW, that paper I linked was written by a physicist. He is also an MD.

farmfriend  posted on  2007-09-05   18:33:40 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 15.

#16. To: farmfriend (#15)

I can find numerous scientists from both sides of the global warming issue, but very few that deny the ice core samples data. You have presented one. I do not feel qualified to judge, and prefer to see who supports which studies and who does not.

robin  posted on  2007-09-05 18:47:07 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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