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All is Vanity See other All is Vanity Articles Title: Guessing Contest: Will Bush Bomb Iran? When? Last year, I predicted publicly that nothing significant was going to happen this year, as far as our (police) state affairs were concerned. It turns out that I was correct. The pre-existing trends kept trending as before but we didn't run into a catastrophe yet. The US didn't attack Iran, the Chinese didn't take over Taiwan and the US didn't go bankrupt yet. The housing industry and the mortgage lenders are going through a crisis but, if you have $100 in your pocket, that will NOT buy you a luxury mansion, not even a condo except maybe in the South Bronx. The oil price continues to rise but we don't have a world-wide recession yet. Now, for predictions: will Bush attack Iran in 2008 and, if yes, when and how? Last year, I didn't think that this was likely during W's twilight in the office. I mistakenly expected that the Demo congress would turn Bush into an impotent fool but they didn't and they seem willing to support whatever bandit actions Bush would take in support of Israel. I believe that Bush how has a plan to attack Iran. I also do not expect Bush to attack Iran before April or May. Bush, as demented as he is, does understand that attacking Iran would make oil nearly unaffordable for a long time. It may also trigger a global recession if not WW3 (or WW4 or WW5 if you are to accept the neocon count of world wars). Bush understands that he would be in big trouble if Americans freeze to death while his bombers are blowing up cute Iranian babies. Bush's window is April through January 2009 but he won't be risking it all in January 09 so we have a 9-months window for Bush's action. My crystal ball is a bit foggy on when Bush is going to make his move. I would define three periods: after the Nov. 2008 election, immediately before the election and the prior to 'immediately before the election'. An 'after-election' has some political advantages but it doesn't give Bush much time. It has the advantage of giving his successor no choice but to 'finish the job' that Bush started. Attacking immediately before the election may be a gamble to boost the GOPs, if it's timed properly. Earlier than that would give Bush's more time to try to pull Iran back farther into the stone age. My prediction is that Bush will do something, after April but don't know when. I don't know if Bush has a project plan with dates on it either. On 'what' will Bush do, Bush could consider 2 options: either attack Iran in a way that pleases Israel but doesn't provoke Iran into a total war mode or attempt to thoroughly destroy the country and trigger regime change. It is possible that it may start as 'number one' but, to Bush's surprise (but not Cheney's) may end up as 'number two' (as in the s__t hitting the fan) with possible 'defensive' arms airlifts to Tehran from Russia, China going for Taiwan, Venezuela leading an oil embargo, Turkey invading Iraq from the North, the Paki pro-US regime falling and who knows what going on in and around Israel.
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#11. To: a vast rightwing conspirator (#0)
After Christmas 2007 and before the onset of the primaries in January, 2008. Bush wants to switch the dialogue from staying in Iraq to a whole new dialogue about stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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