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Title: Shook-Up San Franciscans Prepare to Crack Open Earthquake Kits
Source:
Bloomberg News
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news? ... 1103&sid=a.Mprq84qE.c&refer=us
Published: Nov 1, 2007
Author: Bloomberg News
Post Date: 2007-11-01 11:15:51 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 97
Comments: 8
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- San Franciscans shaken by the earthquake two days ago are even more unnerved by seismologists' warning that they should be ready for a bigger temblor soon. ``I'm leaving town this Friday, and that makes me happy,'' said resident Michelle Clemensen, who works for a hedge fund. ``I'm not prepared in any way for an earthquake.'' The 5.6-magnitude earthquake that rattled the Bay Area significantly increased the likelihood of another damaging seismic shift in the next few days, a panel of scientists said yesterday. The quake broke windows and tossed items from shelves in San Jose but didn't cause major damage. It was centered near the junction of the Calaveras and Hayward faults, making them more prone to shift soon. The Hayward fault, which runs under heavily populated Richmond, Oakland and Berkeley, is due. The fault has shifted about every 140 years, seismologists said. Its last big quake, 139 years ago, was estimated at magnitude 7, leveled buildings and killed 30 people. ``We're pretty sure it's ready: It could be tomorrow or it could be in 10 years,'' said Roland Burgmann, geophysics professor at the University of California, Berkeley. ``The Hayward fault is considered to be the biggest risk in the area.'' Even seasoned earthquake survivors were startled by the bluntness of the warning from the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a panel of scientists that advises Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's Office of Emergency Services. ``This is very scary,'' said Marylou Luckhurst, a suburban resident who works in the city and had a close call in the 1989 Loma Prieta quake. ``I hope I can get home. I have two dogs, and they would be terrified.'' Apocalypse Box Some people in the Bay Area are prepared for a disaster in their high-risk zone. Seamus Giffen, who works in San Francisco's financial district and lives in the northern suburb of San Rafael, has an earthquake- preparedness kit he calls his apocalypse box. It holds canned food, water, flashlights, a radio and extra clothes. ``It was Katrina that gave me the idea of a disaster where somebody wouldn't be able to bail me out,'' Giffen said. ``It made me want to be a little more self-reliant.'' The next event could be worse than the 6.9 Loma Prieta, 75 miles (120 kilometers) south of San Francisco, which killed dozens of people and severely damaged structures around the Bay Area, scientists said. ``You would have buildings literally torn in half, roads and freeways that would be offset, railways that cross the fault would likely be damaged and impassable,'' said Steve Walter, a seismologist for the U.S. Geological Survey. Relatively Low Risk While this week's event makes a major earthquake more likely, the probability nonetheless is low, the panel of scientists said in its statement. It called the probability above normal along the Hayward, the Calaveras or both. Before this warning, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated the probability of an earthquake on the Hayward fault at 27 percent by 2032. It hasn't updated the long-term forecast. ``It's a significant increase statistically in the scientific world, but it is still a very low probability,'' said John Parish of the California Geological Survey. ``It's as if you know one number in the state lottery. You still have to guess the next seven.'' On Oct. 21, 1868, the Hayward fault shifted about 6 feet (2 meters). The resulting earthquake caused five deaths in rapidly growing San Francisco, which then had a population of 150,000, and caused as much as $100 million of damage in today's dollars. Danger of Landfill One lesson scientists learned in 1868 was that the damage tends to be most severe to buildings constructed on ``made ground.'' Even more of the Bay Area rests on landfill today, including the Oakland International Airport. A magnitude 6.9 earthquake along the Hayward fault could leave 155,000 homes uninhabitable, 360,000 people homeless and more than 110,000 people in need of public shelter, according to the Association of Bay Area Governments. Magnitude indicates how much energy an earthquake releases, based on the physical area of the moving fault. Power outages would be widespread, more than 1,600 roads would be closed, and phone systems would be overwhelmed, the group said. More than 600,000 employees earning $8.2 billion in quarterly payrolls work along the Hayward fault, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a September report. Some residents aren't any more worried about earthquakes than they were before the warning. ``It's really no big deal,'' said Larry Nelson, 55, a banking executive who has lived in the area for 30 years. ``It's what we expect when we choose to live here.''
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
I was considerably closer than the San Franciscans to the earthquake from the other day. Quite a ride. I was visiting my girlfriend in a 2nd story apartment when it happened. The rolling continued for some time after the initial shaking. Those on the ground floor were talking as if it was already over, but it was still rolling upstairs. Earthquakes DO generate conversation amongst neighbors, no doubt about it.
Earthquakes have to be the worst of all natural events as there is little or no warning. At least with hurricanes, tornados, floods, wildfires there is at least some advanced notice of the pending peril.
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
I lived in the Bay Area for a decade. WHAT earthquake kits? 95%+ of the people I know down there don't have one.
America is not at war. The military is at war. America is at the mall and the Congress is out to lunch.
Ya' gotta describe how it feels. Slowly increasing thunder vibrating the walls or a fast kick in the groin that doesn't stop? Never been in one and don't want to start.
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition Its like a roller-coaster. If you've ever been under an elevated train as it goes by, you've got a fair notion of what it is like. First thing that happens is that your pets start going bonkers. Cats start racing around - dogs begin barking and covering their heads - all kinds of strange behavior. Then....without warning, the ground and buildings shake - sometimes roll. Everything rattles. There is a big rumbling noise. The shaking and rattling lasts for 10-90 seconds. Things fall of of walls. Cupboards open up and spill their contents. Bookshelves fall over. Walls crack. You can't stand up straight so you fall to the ground as it heaves and pitches. You feel like you're in a "shake and bake" bag ready to be put into the oven. ...and then it stops. Then, sometimes, you get aftershocks. Suddenly, the ground gives a good SHORT heave. Then again. And again. And....but the aftershocks are not guaranteed and are always of lesser force. If you've been in enough quakes, you get an attitude about them. "Oh, that one didn't knock the clock off the wall. Must have only been a 3. A five would have taken the bookshelf out." In a quake, get into a doorway. Don't get under a table. Get into a doorway. Running outside can be OK if there is open space, but a doorway is your best bet. Best one I was ever in was the 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption. We got a two-fer in that one. Earthquake AND Volcano at the same time. After the earthquake, you got the explosion noise. Then you got snow....
America is not at war. The military is at war. America is at the mall and the Congress is out to lunch.
you've had a few good rides ;) What I notice first is the noise. Science says there's a p-wave (primary) and s-wave (secondary), but I can't say I've been able to distinguish them apart. In primary grades, a Japanese-American Sunday School teacher told us that a rolling motion is good, but up-and-down is a sign you are too close to the epicenter; then he laughed. I think we talked about A-bombs after that.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today!
Not as good as a relative of mine who watched the Bay Bridge go down while on it.
America is not at war. The military is at war. America is at the mall and the Congress is out to lunch.
Perhaps you'll die there, ain't no other place left to go. San Francisco.
From Two Party System... ...to Two Family System.
#2. To: PnbC (#1)
#3. To: Brian S (#0)
#4. To: mirage (#3)
"There is no 'legitimate' Corporation by virtue of it's very legal definition and purpose."
-- IndieTx
#5. To: IndieTX (#4)
Slowly increasing thunder vibrating the walls or a fast kick in the groin that doesn't stop?
#6. To: mirage (#5)
#7. To: robin (#6)
you've had a few good rides ;)
#8. To: Brian S (#0)
``It's what we expect when we choose to live here.''
I've already said too much.
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