4um: Market WrapUp (11-05-07)

Today's Market WrapUp 11.05.2007 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Kirby Archive

Musical Chairs at Citibank
BY ROB KIRBY

It’s out with the old and in with the new, or perhaps better stated, the ‘recycled.’ This past weekend Citibank Chairman, Charles Prince resigned. His replacement is none other than Robert Rubin.

For those of you who with short memories, Mr. Rubin is a former Chair of Goldman Sachs, former U.S. Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration and last but not least – widely credited with the design, implementation and beating-of-the-drum of the heralded U.S. ‘strong dollar policy.’

Robert Rubin

Since Rubin’s tenure as Treasury Secretary it has become “custom” from that point forward that all who have followed him reiterate this theme – singing the strong dollar mantra.

This dogma of the ‘strong dollar policy’ has come to be understood by many market participants as saying one thing while doing something-else completely opposite.

A Paradox in Principle

In an article written back in 2003 by TheStreet.com’s Aaron Task titled, Strong Dollar Is a Policy in Name Only, Task opines,

Other than "I love you" and "You're under arrest," few three-word English phrases have as much significance as "strong dollar policy."

Of late, however, singing the tune of the strong dollar policy tends to fly in the face of realities with the U.S. Dollar Index probing new historical lows. As recently as August 2006, current U.S. Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson reiterated the familiar tune,

"I believe that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest and that currency values should be determined in open and competitive markets in response to underlying fundamentals"

Despite Mr. Paulson’s proclamation in support of a strong dollar, anecdotal evidence would tend to suggest otherwise:

With Robert Rubin now beating the drum over at Citibank – that of Chairman – let’s hope that his assumed intentions of restoring the financial behemoth to financial strength and probity are followed up with a degree of transparency and meaningful change.

Today’s Market

Overseas equity markets began the week on a sour note with Japan’s Nikkei Index falling 248 points to 16,268. North American markets also stumbled with the DOW losing 51.70 to 13,543.40, the NASDAQ giving up 15.20 to 2,795.18 and the S & P down 7.50 to 1,502.15. NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.28 to 94.65 per barrel.

Interest rates ended a volatile day by rising 2 basis points across the curve with the benchmark 5 yr. bond ending the day at 3.97% and the 10 yr. bond finishing the day at 4.34%.

On foreign exchange markets, the U.S. Dollar Index gained .08 to 76.38.

The precious metals complex ended the day mixed with COMEX gold futures closing up 1.10 per ounce at 808.60 while COMEX silver futures added .14 to finish at 14.77 per ounce. Meanwhile, the XAU closed down 1.11 at 186.52 and the HUI fell 2.63 to end the day at 436.75.

Wishing you all a pleasant evening and happy investing!

Rob Kirby

Contact Information
Rob Kirby
Kirby Analytics Newsletter
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Email | Website | WrapUp Archive | Financial Sense Editorial Archive

There is always the 'quantum dump'. But then that's something we don't want to see or talk about either. Especially when the subject is dah Dollah.

In order to make things more simple, I have put in the last FIBO cycle, the 3rd one going from 85.00 to 75.00. Easily seen is that the Dollar approached the triple triple mark of 76.46 and bumped its head. Now that we have another 'crazy' Monday behind us, look for dah Dollah to drop not dump into the channel.

Sister-in-law so far likes Singapore better than Switzerland. Stores are open 'till 10pm, and everybody speaks English.

Well, the 1/4 point was a "compromise", fighting inflation would force rates to 8 or 10% and putting the brakes on the housing slump (for Pimco in the link above) would require a crack bowl, not the current punch bowl which will only cause some more sane and sellable part of the market to go drunk on mergers.

Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle

At one point everything was going swimmingly ... then it wasn't. Well gold went past the target did all of the serpentine about it stuff but left out closing above it. Hey, like I said, crazy Monday.

However the 6 month chart now shows that it needed this Monday to put the next fuchsia line in play. And that says Target tomorrow.

It's getting harder and harder to know where the lime lines go because INO only has a 6 month before they jump to the 1yr and StockCharts is worthless. They average too heavily and by doing so obscure what really happened each day.

Here's the daily POG. Looks like another very major characteristic change. I barely got da Boyz target on the screen. It's buried in 'fat chance' land.

There have been some very easily noticed huge characteristic changes in the last 7 trading days. I would hazard a statement that it looks like it may be all over for da Boyz. Especially now that the Yen is also rising against the Dollar and Japan is saying their rates need to rise too. You don't think that they're still stuck on being the land of the rising sun do you ?

Here's a peak at the whole up tick, no jumps and no gap ups. Just pure launch. As you can see I really had to squeeze to get this on the screen. Probably because it's all linear, no log interpretations.

People are probably buying craploads to come out with significant quantities after a reverse split. I know I want to, heck up to what, 10000 shares, it's transaction costs :-)

Other side of a split with positive cash flow and what, 1/2 million plus ounces or more proven, they should be a 3 or 4 dollar stock eventually... Hell, if it was a 1 for 10 reverse split with $1000 ounce gold, that would give them a book of around 8 bucks a share (someone might want to check that math, it's "on the fly" math).

You know how this all ends right? It ends with all of us screaming and thrusting bayonettes and bullets into each others guts while fat elites from both "parties" sit back behind their walled compounds and governmment complexes and count the money and wealth they skimmed off us before we begin to "cull" ourselves...

I was crawling all around over the weekend and couldn't find anything. Not a mention of proven let alone forecast or predicted ounces.

Anyway I bought some today and made the 19+%. Not bad for the time it took to make a dozen or so keystrokes.

I didn't have to wait til 7-8am NYT. Easily seen is that POG has found the last fuchsia line and is adhering to its command.

I even more get the notion that it's all over for da Boyz. At this point they can only slow it down. They have no ability to reach their target as shown in the daily above and that number is $776.

Local gas n go is charging $2.89 for regular. Costco only marginally lower at $2.87.

I wonder when somebody is going to blame this rise on the holiday driving season?

I still have faith that the central planners will manage to save Christmas shopping season with lower gasoline prices. They still have a couple of weeks to engineer a major energy market top before pulling the rug out from under the oil market. I will be shocked, to put it mildly, if it doesn't happen this year. It would be like Santa died.

I see that chicky-poo is ready for the cost of natural gas & heating oil this winter.

The weatherman says that it is going to be in the 30's the next 3 nights. That's cold for this early in the season.

Inflation 1923-24: A German woman feeding a stove with currency notes, which burn longer than the amount of firewood they can buy.

Well, we've been getting these background stories about an "early" shopping season so maybe we don't get the traditional black Friday kickoff with all the staged Wal-Mart media reports showing out of control crowds bursting through their doors at opening.

The plan here is to dump as much cash as possible before it melts away. Spent about a grand on equipment in the last month.

Met with my roofer last week when he flew back into town on a break. We'll probably be putting a new roof on my house as soon as he gets finished up with the job he's on in Alabama.

Probably get my wife the flat-panel TeeVee she's been wanting this year too, if they have some deals.

Took a few minutes after the open put the HUI is now above VooDoo target of 443.

Both gold and silver have registered intraday indications that they are already on their next FIBO growth cycle. The broad gauge is now showing a triple in both. That's the 0 to 100% growth cycle.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - IndyMac Bancorp Inc (IMB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), one of the largest independent U.S. mortgage lenders, on Tuesday posted a quarterly loss more than five times larger than it had projected, hurt by mounting delinquencies and a collapse in investor demand to buy its home loans.

The third-quarter net loss totaled $202.7 million, or $2.77 per share. It was IndyMac's first quarterly loss since the fourth quarter of 1998. Profit a year earlier was $86.2 million, or $1.19 per share.

Wow, you Richard have the metals smokin' today. Partly on the basis of your TA, I added some Ag at the Asian opening price on Sunday. We're looking good. A tip of the hat to you.

Best price I saw in the Pittsburgh vicinity today was the 2.999 ( trying to hide $3 ). How'd you like those Steelers throwback uniforms, Richard ?

How long have you been posting the WrapUp now? I seem to recall getting involved about 5 years ago (on TOS.)

Filled up the work truck today. 67 gal@$3.089 - $207. From the looks of the NYMEX, gas will go up 12 to 22 cents here in FTW tomorrow.

ILDS.PK, a holder of an adjacent property they contract mine is pretty interesting too. Appears Hecla needs to do some system upgrading because their Lucky Friday equipment is old as crap and losing a hell of a lot of material...

Currently sitting at about 2.9 silver dimes now, or 2 mercs, a war nickel and 4 copper pennies :-)

1942-1945 Nickel ** silver value $0.8574 increase 1714.92%
1916-1945 Mercury Dime value $1.1024 increase 1102.44%
1946-1964 Roosevelt Dime value $1.1024 increase 1102.44%
1932-1964 Quarter value $2.7561 increase 1102.44%
1916-1947 Half Dollar value $5.5122 increase 1102.44%
1948-1963 Half Dollar value $5.5122 increase 1102.44%
1964 Kennedy Half Dollar value $5.5122 increase 1102.44%
1965-1970 Half Dollar (40% silver) value $2.2538 increase 450.77%
1878-1921 Morgan Dollar value $11.7873 increase 1178.73%
1921-1935 Peace Dollar value $11.7873 increase 1178.73%

American Gold Eagle
1/2 Oz. bid $407.30 ask $433.30
1/4 Oz. bid $202.65 ask $219.65
1/10 Oz. bid $81.44 ask $89.06
Silver American Eagle Bid $16.08 ask $17.08
Silver Maple Leaf Bid $15.37 ask$17.11
90% Silver Bags bid $10,585.44 ask $10,821.69

I'll second the motion. The Wrap must hold some sort of record .... longest running migratory financial thread ( on at least 3 sites ). A tribute to Richard's posting dedication. I should drop a note to Jim Puplava to inform him of all the free publicity that FSO has garnered.

Yup, take the nickel from 1942 (partial year) to 1945 (oddly enough they turn up a lot more frequently than old regular ones because regular nickels read close to pull tabs, though I dig a shitload of those as sliders so as to not miss them, and gold).

0.8754 (current metal value)/0.05 (face) = 17.1492 (multiple of increase) X 100 for the percent.

Of course, the increase is essentially since 1964 as ostensibly the circulation value and silver value was close or at parity then, but either way a 39.88% annualized average rate of return is nothing to sneeze at :-)

Peas porridge hot, peas porridge cold, peas porridge is what you'll eat because it's what the damn STATE tells you to!