Title: New CNN poll of NH Republicans -- Ron Paul 4th at 8% Source:
YouTube/CNN URL Source:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBDRp3k_l0Y Published:Nov 20, 2007 Author:CNN Post Date:2007-11-20 15:58:10 by hondo68 Keywords:New Hampshire, Ron Paul, Poll Views:53 Comments:1
Conservative Frontrunner Still Unclear Among Republican Candidates
Monday, November 19, 2007
At the beginning of 2007, a compelling narrative of the Republican race suggested that Rudy Giuliani and John McCain would compete to be the moderate candidate while Mitt Romney and some others would seek to become the conservative alternative.
Giuliani handily won the “politically moderate” semi-finals over McCain and became the Republican frontrunner.
As for the competition among the conservatives, the results are still unknown.
Romney was the first out of the gate in the effort to become a conservative alternative to Giuliani. His campaign has successfully built leads and expectations in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. But, he has failed to gain traction nationally and does poorly in Southern state general election match-ups.
Fred Thompson was thought for a time to be the great hope of Republican conservatives. His campaign has been routinely dissed and dismissed by political pundits and the former Tennessee Senator clearly failed to capture the opening available to him. However, he picked up a key endorsement last week from the National Right to Life Committee and continues to do fairly well in national polls. At the same time, he is doing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The failure of Romney and Thompson to clinch the conservative crown left an opening for a Mike Huckabee boomlet. Huckabee is making the most of it with a winning personality and has been in double digits now for several weeks. But, as soon as Huckabee’s visibility was raised, so were questions about his positions on taxes and immigration.
Things have been unsettled long enough so that even John McCain has re-entered the picture. It speaks to the weakness of the field that the Arizona Senator now believes he might become the conservative alternative to Giuliani. Given McCain’s history, it is not at all clear how conservatives would respond if the choice came down to McCain versus Giuliani.
All of this makes the early voting states very important in terms of sorting out the field. And, in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a majority of voters say they might change their mind before voting. To suggest that the Republican race is fluid remains an understatement. But, some benchmarks have been established to measure progress when the voting actually begins.
For Romney, big victories are required in both Iowa and New Hampshire. A loss or near-loss in either of these states would effectively end his campaign.