[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Sign-in] [Mail] [Setup] [Help]
Status: Not Logged In; Sign In
|
(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: What If The General Election Stage Is As Crowded With Candidates As The Primaries Have Been? November 27, 2007 Let's play a "what if" game. What if Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani parlay their current leads in national polls into the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations? And what if, spurred by the movement that has suddenly sprung full force around him, Ron Paul decides to take the Libertarian Party's nomination for president, as he did in 1988? And what if, as many evangelical Christian leaders have promised, they actually do field a presidential candidate to run on issues such as abortion, gay rights and school prayer. And what if someone, (Tom Tancredo?) decides that the race needs a strong advocate for sending undocumented immigrants back where they came from and strictly policing our borders? On the Democratic side, the fractures don't look as deep, but Ralph Nader can always be depended on to jump into the race and pull up to 5% of the liberal vote. And then there's Unity08, an independent movement that already has attracted more than 100,000 on line adherents, many deep-pocketed Democrats and Republicans among them. The Unity08 website explains its mission this way: "We believe that neither of today's parties reflects the aspirations of the majority of Americans. Both are unduly influenced by special interests and by money," Some time in May Unity08 will have an on-line "convention" during which most anyone can be a delegate and vote to nominate a presidential ticket. If NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg is planning to run, this would likely be his spot. If not, think candidates like Hagel, Lieberman, Georgia's Sam Nunn, or former Senator Bob Kerry, All of these potential candidates have had conversations with leaders of Unity08, all would have access to the kind of money needed to run a respectable campaign and all have demonstrated independence from party. Unity08 is likely to have pre-qualified itself on the ballot of all 50 states. Continuing with "what ifs," what if the major party nominations get settled early, but the general election ballot includes multiple additional serious contenders? And what if the fall debate platforms seem as crowded as the 2007 primary contests? The U.S. hasn't seen a political party realignment since the Republican Party organized just prior to the Civil War. There have been a number of vigorous third party efforts, the latest being Ross Perot's in 1992, which attracted 20% of the national vote and resulted in a Bill Clinton victory with 43%. But it just may be that in 2008 the forces of realignment could be ripe for a change that busts the two-party monopoly. An article by Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch in last Sunday's Washington Post noted that the force driving Ron Paul's surge "is less about Paul than about the movement that has erupted around him -- and the much larger subset of Americans who are increasingly disillusioned with the two major political parties' soft consensus on making government ever more intrusive at all levels, whether it's listening to phone calls without a warrant, imposing fines of half a million dollars for broadcast 'obscenities' or jailing grandmothers for buying prescribed marijuana from legal dispensaries." "So Paul's challenge represents a not-so-lonely GOP revival of unabashed libertarianism," they continue. "All his major Republican competitors want to double down on Bush's wars; none is stressing any limited-government themes, apart from half-hearted promises to prune pork and tinker on the margins of Social Security." More than one commentator has pointed out the similarities between the Ron Paul campaign and Howard Dean's insurgency in 2004. Both came from outside their parties' mainstream, and both have been fueled by people weary of the Iraq war and more interested in making significant changes in what they see as a grid-locked, semi-corrupted political process. Seen in that light, a Clinton-Giuliani match seems like no change at all from the current stagnant political environment-----no change in a year when candidates are tripping over each other to grab the "change" mantle. For many Republicans, Giuliani is personally flawed on social issues and in his own personal background. He can hardly be expected to represent the beliefs of either the Paul, Huckabee or Trancredo supporters. For many Democrats, Clinton represents more of the same in Washington. A vast improvement over Bush, certainly, but hardly the leader who will bring the country together and propose---and deliver---dramatic changes at home or abroad. How motivated, for example, would the Obama supporters be to get behind Clinton if there were a Bloomberg alternative? That leaves a huge pool of voters who could be open to a Bloomberg, a Hagel or a Kerrey who already have demonstrated a willingness to think outside the box and the fortitude to challenge the entrenched DC power structure. In a race with multiple serious candidates (Giuliani, Paul, Clinton, an evangelical, Tancredo, Nader, and a Unity08 ticket) 35% could be enough to win, especially if that 35% comes in states will lots of electoral votes. The primary election period has been interesting for its dozens of candidates and its duration. But don't count out the general election. For sheer drama and high stakes, the general election may well be the most riveting and least predictable the U.S. has seen in 100 years. (Incidentally, as of this writing, Ron Paul has more votes than any other presidential candidate, Republican or Democrat, in the USpoliticstoday.com pre-Iowa caucus on-line ballot. If you haven't voted yet, go to our polling booth below. No registration needed).
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
|
||
|
[Home]
[Headlines]
[Latest Articles]
[Latest Comments]
[Post]
[Sign-in]
[Mail]
[Setup]
[Help]
|
||