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Title: Br-r-r! Where did global warming go?
Source: Boston Globe
URL Source: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/e ... r_where_did_global_warming_go/
Published: Jan 6, 2008
Author: Jeff Jacoby
Post Date: 2008-01-06 20:34:22 by farmfriend
Ping List: *Agriculture-Environment*     Subscribe to *Agriculture-Environment*
Keywords: None
Views: 749
Comments: 86

Br-r-r! Where did global warming go?

By Jeff Jacoby
Globe Columnist / January 6, 2008

THE STARK headline appeared just over a year ago. "2007 to be 'warmest on record,' " BBC News reported on Jan. 4, 2007. Citing experts in the British government's Meteorological Office, the story announced that "the world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007," surpassing the all-time high reached in 1998.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the planetary hot flash: Much of the planet grew bitterly cold.

In South America, for example, the start of winter last year was one of the coldest ever observed. According to Eugenio Hackbart, chief meteorologist of the MetSul Weather Center in Brazil, "a brutal cold wave brought record low temperatures, widespread frost, snow, and major energy disruption." In Buenos Aires, it snowed for the first time in 89 years, while in Peru the cold was so intense that hundreds of people died and the government declared a state of emergency in 14 of the country's 24 provinces. In August, Chile's agriculture minister lamented "the toughest winter we have seen in the past 50 years," which caused losses of at least $200 million in destroyed crops and livestock.

Latin Americans weren't the only ones shivering.

University of Oklahoma geophysicist David Deming, a specialist in temperature and heat flow, notes in the Washington Times that "unexpected bitter cold swept the entire Southern Hemisphere in 2007." Johannesburg experienced its first significant snowfall in a quarter-century. Australia had its coldest ever June. New Zealand's vineyards lost much of their 2007 harvest when spring temperatures dropped to record lows.

Closer to home, 44.5 inches of snow fell in New Hampshire last month, breaking the previous record of 43 inches, set in 1876. And the Canadian government is forecasting the coldest winter in 15 years.

Now all of these may be short-lived weather anomalies, mere blips in the path of the global climatic warming that Al Gore and a host of alarmists proclaim the deadliest threat we face. But what if the frigid conditions that have caused so much distress in recent months signal an impending era of global cooling?

"Stock up on fur coats and felt boots!" advises Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and senior scientist at Moscow's Shirshov Institute of Oceanography. "The latest data . . . say that earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012."

Sorokhtin dismisses the conventional global warming theory that greenhouse gases, especially human-emitted carbon dioxide, is causing the earth to grow hotter. Like a number of other scientists, he points to solar activity - sunspots and solar flares, which wax and wane over time - as having the greatest effect on climate.

"Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change," Sorokhtin writes in an essay for Novosti. "Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind." In a recent paper for the Danish National Space Center, physicists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen concur: "The sun . . . appears to be the main forcing agent in global climate change," they write.

Given the number of worldwide cold events, it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006 - and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001. The record set in 1998 has not been surpassed. For nearly a decade now, there has been no global warming. Even though atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to accumulate - it's up about 4 percent since 1998 - the global mean temperature has remained flat. That raises some obvious questions about the theory that CO2 is the cause of climate change.

Yet so relentlessly has the alarmist scenario been hyped, and so disdainfully have dissenting views been dismissed, that millions of people assume Gore must be right when he insists: "The debate in the scientific community is over."

But it isn't. Just last month, more than 100 scientists signed a strongly worded open letter pointing out that climate change is a well-known natural phenomenon, and that adapting to it is far more sensible than attempting to prevent it. Because slashing carbon dioxide emissions means retarding economic development, they warned, "the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it."

Climate science isn't a religion, and those who dispute its leading theory are not heretics. Much remains to be learned about how and why climate changes, and there is neither virtue nor wisdom in an emotional rush to counter global warming - especially if what's coming is a global Big Chill. Subscribe to *Agriculture-Environment*

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 59.

#1. To: farmfriend (#0)

Jeff Jacoby is still drooling? Half of Chicago was walking around in shorts and tshirts today. It was in the mid-50s near the lake. In January, when it is normally in the 20s, at best. You can cherry-pick data but the clear direction of global climate is up, up, up.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-06   21:37:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Mekons4 (#1)

Two days ago, it was 15 below zero here at 11 PM.

That's the 2nd coldest temperature I have ever seen here.

Critter  posted on  2008-01-06   23:33:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Critter (#4)

On Dec. 3, 2006, it was 73 degrees at 3 am in Chicago. It beat the previous record by 40 degrees. If you seriously think we are not in global climate change, good luck. The whole concept is that the disruption of the climate by any number of things, mainly man-made, will cause things to pogo up and down, but the eventual result is an irreversible trend to warming. The Great Lakes have lost a foot of water, the glaciers are melting, California first got wildfires from drought and now is getting mudslides from a foot of rain a day...this whole thing means extreme weather. Cold, hot, wet, dry. Turn off Rush. This sounds like those MORONS who put out a thing about getting 8 feet of snow and not having to call in the Fed Gov to help them, unlike New Orleans. I asked them, how much of that snow made it indoors up to the second floor. Gee, no fucking reply from those nazi squatholes.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-07   0:32:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Mekons4 (#5)

Okay, I get your point. Global warming is happening. We all recognize Global Warming is happening ( except for the retard under Darth Cheney's thumb)

But are we in the midst of a predictable natural cycle that happens every 200 years? Or is this something new, man made or man enhanced?

scrapper2  posted on  2008-01-07   0:40:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: scrapper2 (#6)

ut are we in the midst of a predictable natural cycle that happens every 200 years? Or is this something new, man made or man enhanced?

I guess that depends on if you believe CO2 makes a difference. If you do, the evidence is overwhelming. If you don't, I have no idea what you believe. The previous global warming events have been caused by natural releases of carbon, but we have not had things like Krakatoa in over a hundred years.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-07   0:56:36 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: All (#10)

It's kinda funny how political views somehow affect one's views on science. Everyone, everyone sane at least, wants science to rule. It's just when scientists start fucking with the oil industry or the tobacco industry, that suddenly the right wing gets all agitated. Can anyone remind me of a scientific finding that got the left wing as riled as the wingers screeching about Algore and FatMike and shit?

No, you cannot. Us lefties believe in science and we are perfectly happy to be proven wrong.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-07   1:00:55 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Mekons4 (#11)

No, you cannot. Us lefties believe in science and we are perfectly happy to be proven wrong.

You lefties are all artsie fartsies. What do you lefties know about science unless you think that pretending you know something will get you a government grant to pursue further investigation? Let's get real.

scrapper2  posted on  2008-01-07   1:31:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: scrapper2 (#13)

You lefties are all artsie fartsies. What do you lefties know about science unless you think that pretending you know something will get you a government grant to pursue further investigation? Let's get real.

Snicker. You really have hammer damage. Notice that the Northwest Passage is now open, after centuries of hope? Anyway, I hope you live in some place like Arizona, where you can't steal our water anymore. You really should start reading more.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-07   22:59:30 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: Mekons4 (#29)

Notice that the Northwest Passage is now open, after centuries of hope?

The melting that took place this last year is normal and has happened several times in recorded history.

farmfriend  posted on  2008-01-07   23:40:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: farmfriend (#38)

The melting that took place this last year is normal and has happened several times in recorded history.

Care to name them? You can't, of course. Every ship that tried to go through the Northwest Passage either turned back or got ice-locked.

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-07   23:43:57 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: Mekons4 (#42)

Care to name them? You can't, of course. Every ship that tried to go through the Northwest Passage either turned back or got ice-locked.

Not according to wikipedia which is a source biased in favor of AGW.

farmfriend  posted on  2008-01-07   23:53:49 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#57. To: farmfriend, Brian S, Mekons4 (#48)

Here's some links to the scientific debate about Global Warming - google global warming natural cycle scientists debate and you get 67,000 hits - Mekons as usual takes a complicated subject and pretends that he knows that there is only one single answer - his, of course.

www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=21977

"500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man-Made Global Warming Scares: List with Study Citations"

science.nasa.gov/h eadlines/y2000/ast20oct_1.htm

"Earth's Fidgeting Climate"

Is human activity warming the Earth or do recent signs of climate change signal natural variations? In this feature article, scientists discuss the vexing ambiguities of our planet's complex and unwieldy climate.

Knock yourselves out trying to find a consensus position of the various scientific groups. Tip - you'd be wasting your time because there is no consensus.

scrapper2  posted on  2008-01-08   0:06:53 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#59. To: scrapper2 (#57)

Gee, how did I know you would quote PNAC and the other Neocons. I just KNEW IT!!!

The Hudson Institute, a member of a closely knit group of neoconservative policy institutes that frequently champion aggressive and Israel-centric U.S. foreign policies, was founded in 1961 by several hardline Cold Warriors including Herman Kahn, a nuclear strategist famous for his efforts to develop "winnable" nuclear war strategies. "Dedicated to innovative research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom," Hudson couples its foreign policy work with research on social and economic agendas, claiming to "challenge conventional thinking and help manage strategic transitions to the future through interdisciplinary and collaborative studies in defense, international relations, economics, culture, science, technology, and law."

Although the institute calls itself a "non-partisan policy research organization," scholars at Hudson consistently reveal an ideological agenda in their work. For example, during the 2006 battle over the renomination of John Bolton as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Hudson president Herbert London coauthored, with American Enterprise Institute (AEI) head Christopher DeMuth, an op-ed in the right-wing Washington Times. The two argued that Bolton's critics wrongly "contended [Bolton] could not work constructively with others, that he was too abrasive, and held the UN in too low regard to be effective there. In fact, on issue after issue, John Bolton has represented the United States with great effectiveness. He has engaged respectfully and productively with his counterparts from other countries and the UN bureaucracy wherever possible." Responding to the numerous press reports citing diplomats who painted a very different picture of Bolton's tenure at the UN, DeMuth and London complained that "it should come as no surprise that Mr. Bolton's critics have been reduced to citing unnamed foreign diplomats who say they do not get along with our UN ambassador" (Washington Times, September 7, 2006).

Similarly, during George W. Bush's second term, some Hudson scholars have been vociferous advocates of an aggressive U.S. posture vis-à-vis several Mideast countries, particularly Syria and Iran. Hudson adjunct fellow Norman Podhoretz, an early neoconservative trailblazer and former editor of Commentary magazine, was one of the loudest U.S. voices calling for attacking Iran. In a June 2007 article for Commentary titled "The Case for Bombing Iran," Podhoretz, who advises Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign team, wrote: "The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences. The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon." He concluded his diatribe pointing to European weakness, a familiar Podhoretz theme: "In fact, it could almost be said of the Europeans that they have been more upset by Ahmadinejad's denial that a Holocaust took place 60 years ago than by his determination to set off one of his own as soon as he acquires the means to do so. In a number of European countries, Holocaust denial is a crime, and the European Union only recently endorsed that position. Yet for all their retrospective remorse over the wholesale slaughter of Jews back then, the Europeans seem no readier to lift a finger to prevent a second Holocaust than they were the first time around. Not so George W. Bush, a man who knows evil when he sees it and who has demonstrated an unfailingly courageous willingness to endure vilification and contumely in setting his face against it. It now remains to be seen whether this president, battered more mercilessly and with less justification than any other in living memory, and weakened politically by the enemies of his policy in the Middle East in general and Iraq in particular, will find it possible to take the only action that can stop Iran from following through on its evil intentions both toward us and toward Israel."

In September 2007, Hudson's Meyrav Wurmser, cofounder of the controversial Middle East Media Research Institute, authored a "strategic briefing" for the UK-based Henry Jackson Society titled "Iran-Hamas Relations: The Growing Threat from a Radical Religious Coalition," which argued that an Iranian threat was looming across the Middle East (a nearly identical article was posted on the Hudson website in October 2007 under the title "The Hamas-Iran Alliance"). Wurmser wrote: "Hamas' coup against the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in May 2007 was a monumental event, not just for the Palestinians, but also the Middle East. ... One central aspect of Iran's ambitions is its growing alliance with Hamas, a relationship dating back to the first official meeting between both in December 1990. These ties grow closer and more intimate, particularly after August 2005, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power."

Scholars and Leadership. Hudson's list of current and former scholars and associates reveals a clear partisan tendency. Several Hudson associates have supported the work of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), the advocacy outfit that played a singular role in pushing for the invasion of Iraq in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The overlap between Hudson and the now-defunct PNAC includes many who signed PNAC's 1997 "Statement of Principles," including Elliott Abrams, the pardoned Iran-Contra convict who serves as a Mideast adviser to the Bush administration and is a former Hudson scholar; Francis Fukuyama, the erstwhile neoconservative fellow traveler and author of the "end of history" thesis who in recent years has rejected many of the faction's policy ideas; Donald Kagan, a conservative classicist; and former Vice President Dan Quayle, an honorary Hudson trustee.

Other Hudson scholars and fellows include Carol Adelman (who is married to Ken Adelman), Anne Bayefsky, Robert Bork, Hillel Fradkin, Laurent Murawiec, Nina Shea, Irwin Stelzer, Ben Wattenberg, and William Schneider Jr.

The Hudson institute also has multiple connections to the Center for Security Policy, a hardline advocacy outfit founded by former Reagan administration Defense official Frank Gaffney, through members like Charles Horner, George Keyworth, Richard Perle, and Schneider.

London, Hudson's president since 1997, has been affiliated with the institute for more than three decades, either as a trustee or senior fellow, founding Hudson's Center for Employment Policy during his tenure. London is also a former Olin Professor of Humanities at New York University. London sits on the boards of numerous private sector businesses and organizations, including Merrill Lynch Assets Management. He previously served as board member to the Center for Naval Analyses.

Kenneth R. Weinstein is Hudson's chief executive officer and a member of the board's executive committee. He joined the institute in 1999 and is a former research fellow. He previously worked at the Heritage Foundation, the New Citizenship Project, the Shalem Center, Claremont McKenna College, and Georgetown University.

Walter P. Stern, who has also served a vice president of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is the chairman emeritus of Hudson's Board of Trustees, which has strong ties to the corporate world, including defense industries. Former trustees include Conrad Black, Donald Kagan, Emmanuel Kampouris, and Dan Quayle. Current trustees include Perle, Nina Rosenwald, and Lawrence Kadish. Hudson cofounder Max Singer, who remains a senior fellow, is associated with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, which is part of Bar-Ilan University in Israel. He writes frequently for the Jerusalem Post and other major newspapers, routinely advocating hardline views about Saudi Arabia and supporting Israel's actions toward the Palestinians. He was also a fervent supporter of Ahmed Chalabi.

Hillel Fradkin, who joined Hudson as a senior fellow in summer 2004, has been a longtime member of the network of rightist and neoconservative institutions, serving as head of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a fellow at AEI, and an officer at the Bradley and Olin foundations. In 2004 article for the Irving Kristol-founded Public Interest, Fradkin argued, "It is hard to overstate the collective psychological effect of the decline of Islamic power, coincidental with the rise of Christian power and its modern political organization" (Public Interest, Spring 2004).

Another outspoken Hudson scholar is Irwin Stelzer, who directs its Center for Economic Policy Studies. In a September 26, 2006 article for Hudson about Federal Reserve Board policy, Stelzer argued that the esoteric detail about monetary policy was lost on most Americans. He wrote: "They see Ford and General Motors laying off tens of thousands of workers, read that nutters in Venezuela and Iran are plotting to cut off supplies of oil, get depressed about the situation in Iraq as the nightly television news casts a pall over dinner tables, and see American foreign policy impotent in the face of a drive by America's old adversary, France's Jacques Chirac, to thwart President George Bush's efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons" (London Sunday Times, September 26, 2006).

Stelzer is the editor of the 2004 volume The Neocon Reader (Grove Press, New York), a compendium of writings from different political figures and authors that describes aspects of neoconservatism. Commenting in the book's introduction on Joshua Muravchik 's contribution to the book, in which the AEI fellow endeavors to dispel the myth that neoconservatism is a Jewish "cabal," Stelzer argues that this can hardly be the case "since neither Colin Powell nor Condoleezza Rice, the president's principal foreign policy advisers, are Jewish; nor are Vice President Dick Cheney ... Donald Rumsfeld ... or George Tenet." Implying inaccurately that neoconservatism encompasses a large array of individuals, as Stelzer does, is a common thread in much of neoconservative rhetoric.

History. After the institute was founded in 1961 by Herman Kahn, Max Singer, and Oscar Ruebhausen in New York's Westchester County, it moved to Indianapolis in 1984, and then finally settled in Washington, DC in 2004. During its more than 40 years of operation, the institute claims to have helped shift "the world away from the no-growth policies of the Club of Rome," enabling the former Soviet republics to become "booming market economies." It also claims to have pioneered "Wisconsin welfare reform" that was later applied nationally. More recently, however, the institute has focused much of its work on security issues, declaring that its move to Washington was made "in an effort to focus its research on foreign policy and national security issues." While it appears to adhere to an equal-opportunity approach in addressing America's many alleged enemies, a significant portion of its white papers and publications have been heavily focused on Islam and the Muslim world.

One of Hudson's founders, Kahn, was one of the more infamous products of the RAND Corporation, where, beginning in 1947, he developed nuclear strategies that downplayed the impact of a thermonuclear war and was supposedly the inspiration for the character of Dr. Strangelove. In a discussion of Kahn's ideas in the New Yorker, Louis Menand quoted Kahn's 1960 book, On Thermonuclear War: "Despite a widespread belief to the contrary, objective studies indicate that even though the amount of human tragedy would be greatly increased in the postwar [i.e. nuclear] world, the increase would not preclude normal and happy lives for the majority of survivors and their descendants."

Menand commented: "The reason [Kahn's] scenarios are fantastic to the point, almost, of risibility is that they deliberately ignore all the elements—beliefs, customs, ideas, politics—that actual wars are fought about, and that operate as a drag on decision making at every point" (New Yorker, June 27, 2005).

Funding. The Hudson Institute received close to $25 million between 1987 and 2003 in foundation, corporate, and government grants, according to Media Transparency and the Capital Research Center. In 2005, the Sarah Scaife Foundation gave Hudson $150,000 for projects, and the Shelby Cullom Davis Foundation gave $75,000 "toward general support for the U.S., China, Russia, and Iran Diplomacy and Security project, and the work of Russian scholar and writer Dr. Andrei Piontkowski," according to Media Transparency. In 2004, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation gave Hudson hundreds of thousands for various projects. Other top Hudson funders have included Olin, Smith Richardson, Pew, the Donner Foundation, and the Department of Justice.

Contact Information

Hudson Institute 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor Washington, DC 20005 Phone: (202) 974-2400 Fax: (202) 974-2410 Email: info@hudson.org Web: http://www.hudson.org

Mekons4  posted on  2008-01-08   0:17:51 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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