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Title: North Atlantic warming tied to natural variability; but global warming may be at play elsewhere
Source:
EurekAlert
URL Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-01/du-naw010308.php
Published: Jan 3, 2008
Author: Monte Basgall
Post Date: 2008-01-14 04:46:06 by farmfriend
Ping List: *Agriculture-Environment* Subscribe to *Agriculture-Environment*
Keywords: None
Views: 306
Comments: 35
Contact: Monte Basgall DURHAM, N.C. – A Duke University-led analysis of available records shows that while the North Atlantic Ocean’s surface waters warmed in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000, the change was not uniform. In fact, the subpolar regions cooled at the same time that subtropical and tropical waters warmed. This striking pattern can be explained largely by the influence of a natural and cyclical wind circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), wrote authors of a study published Thursday, Jan. 3, in Science Express, the online edition of the journal Science. Winds that power the NAO are driven by atmospheric pressure differences between areas around Iceland and the Azores. “The winds have a tremendous impact on the underlying ocean,” said Susan Lozier, a professor of physical oceanography at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences who is the study’s first author. Other studies cited in the Science Express report suggest human-caused global warming may be affecting recent ocean heating trends. But Lozier and her coauthors found their data can’t support that view for the North Atlantic. “It is premature to conclusively attribute these regional patterns of heat gain to greenhouse warming,” they wrote. “The take-home message is that the NAO produces strong natural variability,” said Lozier in an interview. “The simplistic view of global warming is that everything forward in time will warm uniformly. But this very strong natural variability is superimposed on human-caused warming. So researchers will need to unravel that natural variability to get at the part humans are responsible for.” In research supported by the National Science Foundation in the United States and the Natural Environment Research Council in the United Kingdom, her international team analyzed 50 years of North Atlantic temperature records collected at the National Oceanic Data Center in Washington, D.C. To piece together the mechanisms involved in the observed changes, their analysis employed an ocean circulation model that predicts how winds, evaporation, precipitation and the exchange of heat with the atmosphere influences the North Atlantic’s heat content over time. They also compared those computer predictions to real observations “to test the model’s skill,” the authors wrote. Her group’s analysis showed that water in the sub-polar ocean –- roughly between 45 degrees North latitude and the Arctic Circle –- became cooler as the water directly exchanged heat with the air above it. By contrast, NOA-driven winds served to “pile up” sun-warmed waters in parts of the subtropical and tropical North Atlantic south of 45 degrees, Lozier said. That retained and distributed heat at the surface while pushing underlying cooler water further down. The group’s computer model predicted warmer sea surfaces in the tropics and subtropics and colder readings within the sub-polar zone whenever the NAO is in an elevated state of activity. Such a high NAO has been the case during the years 1980 to 2000, the scientists reported. “We suggest that the large-scale, decadal changes...associated with the NAO are primarily responsible for the ocean heat content changes in the North Atlantic over the past 50 years,” the authors concluded. However, the researchers also noted that this study should not be viewed in isolation. Given reported heat content gains in other oceans basins, and rising air temperatures, the authors surmised that other parts of the world's ocean systems may have taken up the excess heat produced by global warming. “But in the North Atlantic, any anthropogenic (human-caused) warming would presently be masked by such strong natural variability,” they wrote.
monte.basgall@duke.edu
919-681-8057
Duke University North Atlantic warming tied to natural variability; but global warming may be at play elsewhere
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#1. To: farmfriend (#0)
(Edited)
Damn what a tease.
I can't believe you clicked it!
Well I doubted that I would see you naked but wanted to at least see the joke. I didn't even get that! Did save the icon though. Might come in handy. (incert devil smilie here)
Just practicing...
Now you really got your tag line screwed up.
"I meant to do that." ~ Pee Wee Herman
Too much, but then so is mine in my opinion. The purple looked better all stretched out.
Aren't you one of those that claim there is no such thing as global warming, that it's a NWO conspiracy to somehow enrich the oil companies? Yeah, using caution in regards to what we exhaust into the atmosphere and eliminating our reliance on petroleum is really a master plan by the oil companies. Yep.
I'll 'purple looked better all stretched out' you right outa here!
Just kidding. I can't see the purple. I'm purple blind. LOL No, for some reason the color doesn't show because of the way I got it set up here. But thank you for telling me, it's a work in progress.
There. Is that 'purple all stretched out' enough for ya? LOL Thank you, sweety. ;^)
Hmmm, maybe splitting it in two lines. As for the rest of it, I'm going to quit talking about stretching purple out while I'm ahead. Too easy for me to get myself in trouble with that one. LOL!
No, nice twist though. What I said was that climate is driven by the sun not CO2 emissions. Those pushing the debate in favor of AGW are the big foundations whose money is oil money. They are the driving force behind resource regulations and yes the NWO. What I said was they make larger profits by controlling supply and demand through government regulation. I have always advocated conservation. I turn to our resident green for verification and at least 7 years of public posting on the subject. I don't advocate buying into the NWO propaganda and pushing CO2 regulations to perpetuate big government and the UN! I'm sorry if you don't want to believe it. I'm sorry if you would rather believe I have ulterior motives. At least I am consistent in fighting the NWO. I don't talk against them when it comes to the WOT and for them when it comes to AGW. Edit: and that quote you use is not from me. Not sure why you want to attribute it to me.
Better?
Yes, but lose the extra line. Sigh, now I have to figure out what to do with mine. It's bugging me.
Make your quote into two lines like mine - we'll be twins!
LOL! OK.
What I said was that climate is driven by the sun not CO2 emissions. It doesn't take a scientist to understand the sun is a factor in weather. Global warming on the other hand is driven by BOTH the likely increase in solar energy AND atmospheric CO2 levels, as even YOU have admitted in earlier exchanges. In fact, the CO2 levels regulate the global climate, and affect the ocean currents and temperatures. Those pushing the debate in favor of AGW are the big foundations whose money is oil money. A) Define AGW. They are the driving force behind resource regulations and yes the NWO. So the oil companies are trying to get themselves regulated, and it's all a NWO plot. Uh huh. What I said was they make larger profits by controlling supply and demand through government regulation. It's because of a LACK of regulations they rake in billions of dollars over the cost of production, and STILL get billions of dollars in subsidies (FREE MONEY FROM THE TAXPAYERS) as well as tax credits in the millions if not billions of dollars. They NEED some regulation to get them under control. You are against this? Edit: and that quote you use is not from me. Not sure why you want to attribute it to me. You posted it. Refer to the article you posted, it's the title of your post.
Let me ask you this. Do you admit that there is such as thing as global warming, and that it is affecting global weather patterns?
No I never said that. Climate is driven by the sun. Man's contribution to CO2 is 3%. The increase in CO2 IS NOT resposible for resent warming, nor have I ever said it was. Sun activity in cycle 21 and 22 is. That doesn't make it mine and can not be attributed to me as a quote.
I believe it is normal for the Earth's climate to change. Current changes are well within normal variations. Earth's climate during the medieval warm period, climate optimum, was warmer than current temps. It was not disastrous. Another Maunder minimum would be though. I have a hard time with the government wasting resources on "warming" when cold is the greater threat. We should be preparing. All evidence is that we are heading into another Dalton like minimum with the possibility of a Maunder type minimum in the near future.
So let me get this straight. Now you're trying to say that CO2 levels have no affect on the earth's climate?
You posted it. You ARE farmfriend, are you not? I accept responsibility for what I post, you should do the same. Are you trying to say you disagree with what you posted?
Sure we are. That's why the icecaps are melting.
I post all kinds of things and no I don't always agree with what I post. I post them to spur discussion. I take responsibility for what I post but you tried to make it out like I had said it, like it was a quote of me. That is disingenuous.
You really don't read the science do you?
It is my understanding that global warming is a hoax. It's a distraction created to divert us from such things as say... chemtrails. I believe chemtrails are a far greater issue than 'global warming'. I also believe they're a part of weather pattern change, particuarly windstorms.
How do you figure that wud? Don't believe those that spew propaganda, look at the evidence. The ice caps are melting, and the earth's weather patterns are changing. I think the chemtrails MIGHT be trying to COOL the earth, at least in some instances. More than likely, that's what the pilots are told at least.
You obviously didn't, as you appear to be oblivious to the role of CO2 in the global climate, and how the oceans process the CO2.
You're the only person I've ever encountered that's bitched about having a portion of an article they posted quoted in a response. Never mind the fact that it's the TITLE of the damn article. You certainly must have a lot of spare time on your hands to argue about something so trivial. So anyways, you're saying that you disagree with the article you posted?
Honestly, I get alot of my ideas from other people. Not to mention any names... LOL Don't believe those that spew propaganda Another reason I don't believe it's happening. look at the evidence. Seems to me like it's been getting colder and colder. The ice caps are melting I recall O_I saying they're getting bigger and James Deffenbach saying that more CO2 is given off from one Volcanic eruption than in all of man's history of CO2 whatever-ya-call-it... and the earth's weather patterns are changing. Chemtrails? I think the chemtrails MIGHT be trying to COOL the earth, at least in some instances. Maybe, I didn't think it was too hot, though. If that's the case, they should have let it warm up. Have you been up here lately? ;) More than likely, that's what the pilots are told at least. More reason to not believe them, imo. I'm all for the truth and will allow the evidence and facts to determine what it is for me, so I will keep an open mind and be ready to change it if I'm convinced otherwise. I don't know alot about the issue, but am interested in learning about it...
Man's contribution to CO2 is roughly 3%. The oceans are by far the largest natural source of CO2. They also absorb CO2 creating a net sink. I am actually interested in seeing if there will be a drop in CO2 as we get some natural cooling. If it is the forcing agent they claim, then we should not experience ANY cooling as CO2 continues to rise. Temperatures have flat lined in the northern hemisphere and cooled somewhat in the south. Most of the "melting" that has taken place has been shown to come from sources other than air temperature. The melting on the western peninsula of Antarctica and the Arctic were both do to cyclical changes in ocean circulation and wind. The melting on Greenland was from increased volcanic activity below the glacier. The melting on Kilimanjaro is from deforestation. The peak of sun cycle 23, a very active cycle, was in 1998. Coincidence that was a hot year? Cycles 21 and 22 were very active. Odd that the Earth had slight warming during that period. Cycle 24, expected to be quieter, should start in earnest around April. Currently there are no spots and hasn't been any for months. Solar activity suggests we are heading for a Dalton type minimum. With another Maunder type minimum happening again soon. The Maunder minimum (little ice age) was caused by an extremely quiet sun. It had no sun spots for about 100 years. The break in the Maunder minimum came when the sun increased its activity.
Everything you post is meaningless, worthless, unsubstantiated bullshiite, wu doofus. ROTFLAY!!!!!
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#2. To: wudidiz (#1)
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#3. To: farmfriend (#2)
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#4. To: wudidiz (#3)
I can't believe you clicked it!
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#5. To: farmfriend (#4)
(Edited)
“The individual is handicapped
by coming face-to-face
with a conspiracy so monstrous
he cannot believe it exists”
~ J. Edgar Hoover 
#6. To: wudidiz (#5)
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#7. To: farmfriend (#6)
“The individual is handicapped
by coming face-to-face
with a conspiracy so monstrous
he cannot believe it exists”
~ J. Edgar Hoover
#8. To: wudidiz (#7)
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#9. To: farmfriend (#0)
North Atlantic warming tied to natural variability; but global warming may be at play elsewhere
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#10. To: farmfriend (#8)
The purple looked better all stretched out.
“The individual is handicapped
by coming face-to-face
with a conspiracy so monstrous
he cannot believe it exists”
~ J. Edgar Hoover
#11. To: farmfriend (#8)
“The individual is handicapped
by coming face-to-face
with a conspiracy so monstrous
he cannot believe it exists”
~ J. Edgar Hoover
#12. To: farmfriend (#8)
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists”~ J. Edgar Hoover
#13. To: wudidiz (#12)
Is that 'purple all stretched out' enough for ya?
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#14. To: FormerLurker, robin, ferret mike (#9)
(Edited)
Aren't you one of those that claim there is no such thing as global warming, that it's a NWO conspiracy to somehow enrich the oil companies?
Yeah, using caution in regards to what we exhaust into the atmosphere and eliminating our reliance on petroleum is really a master plan by the oil companies.
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#15. To: farmfriend (#13)
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy
so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#16. To: wudidiz (#15)
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#17. To: farmfriend (#16)
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy
so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#18. To: farmfriend (#16)
Sigh, now I have to figure out what to do with mine. It's bugging me.
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy
so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#19. To: wudidiz (#18)
Make your quote into two lines like mine - we'll be twins!
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#20. To: farmfriend (#14)
(Edited)
B) Are you trying to say oil companies are behind the push for alternative energy?
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#21. To: farmfriend (#14)
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#22. To: FormerLurker (#20)
Global warming on the other hand is driven by BOTH the likely increase in solar energy AND atmospheric CO2 levels, as even YOU have admitted in earlier exchanges.
You posted it. Refer to the article you posted, it's the title of your post.
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#23. To: FormerLurker (#21)
Let me ask you this. Do you admit that there is such as thing as global warming, and that it is affecting global weather patterns?
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#24. To: farmfriend (#22)
(Edited)
No I never said that. Climate is driven by the sun. Man's contribution to CO2 is 3%. The increase in CO2 IS NOT resposible for resent warming, nor have I ever said it was. Sun activity in cycle 21 and 22 is.
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#25. To: farmfriend (#22)
That doesn't make it mine and can not be attributed to me as a quote.
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#26. To: farmfriend (#23)
All evidence is that we are heading into another Dalton like minimum with the possibility of a Maunder type minimum in the near future.
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#27. To: FormerLurker (#25)
Are you trying to say you disagree with what you posted?
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#28. To: FormerLurker (#26)
Sure we are. That's why the icecaps are melting.
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#29. To: FormerLurker, farmfriend, Original_Intent, TwentyTwelve, James Deffenbach, all (#21)
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy
so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#30. To: wudidiz (#29)
It is my understanding that global warming is a hoax.
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#31. To: farmfriend (#28)
You really don't read the science do you?
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#32. To: farmfriend (#27)
I take responsibility for what I post but you tried to make it out like I had said it, like it was a quote of me. That is disingenuous.
You appear to be a major trouble maker...and I'm getting really pissed. - GoldiLox, 7/27/2006
#33. To: FormerLurker, Original_Intent, James Deffenbach (#30)
(Edited)
How do you figure that wud?
“The individual is handicapped by coming face-to-face with a conspiracy
so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” ~ J. Edgar Hoover
#34. To: wudidiz (#33)
I recall O_I saying they're getting bigger and James Deffenbach saying that more CO2 is given off from one Volcanic eruption than in all of man's history of CO2 whatever-ya-call-it...
My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles,
and the letters get in the wrong places. -- Winnie the Pooh
#35. To: wudidiz (#33)
Honestly, I get alot of my ideas from other people.
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