In an election season filled with surprises, New Jersey’s Republican Primary voters may be considering a surprise of their own. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that Feb. 5 contest shows Arizona Sen. John McCain two points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The survey was conducted on Tuesday night and interviews were completed before results of the Michigan Primary were released. It’s McCain 29%, Giuliani 27% and no one else is close. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are tied for a distant third at 10%, Fred Thompson attracts only 6%, and Ron Paul earns 5% of the New Jersey vote. Five percent (5%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate and 8% are not sure.
McCain 29%
Giuliani 27%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 10%
Thompson 6%
Paul 5%
Some other candidate 5%
Not sure 8%
New Jersey Survey of 616 Likely GOP Primary Voters. Conducted Jan. 15, 2008 by Rasmussen Reports.
McCain is seen as the most electable Republican candidate with Giuliani a close second.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of "Likely Primary Voters" believe McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 37% who say he is "Very Likely" to win.
Seventy percent (70%) say Giuliani would be at least somewhat likely to win in the fall, a figure that includes 25% who say he would be "Very Likely" to emerge victorious.
Just 51% believe Romney would have a chance to win as the Republican nominee. Forty percent (40%) give Huckabee a chance in the fall while 33% say the same about Thompson. Just 10% believe Ron Paul would be even somewhat likely to win.
However, it is impossible to overstate the fluidity of the race in New Jersey. While McCain is barely atop the poll, just 47% of his supporters are "certain" they will end up voting for him. Just 50% of Giuliani’s supporters are that "certain"” For Romney, that number is 43% and just 33% of Huckabee fans are sure they won’t change their mind.