WASHINGTON - His approval ratings are dreadful, his moral authority suspect. Many Republicans fear President Bush backlash guarantees catastrophic election defeats this fall, including losing the White House. One of Bush's stoutest loyalists even admits: "As a practical matter, he has now become irrelevant to the national conversation."
George W. Bush cheerfully begs to differ.
A year before he leaves town after two turbulent terms for a new home in Dallas and his beloved Crawford ranch, Bush is unusually ebullient these days.
"We've come through some pretty rough times, but things are goin' great now," he told an old friend recently.
Like his father, Bush has always embraced the half-full view of life and politics. But longtime Bush-watchers report that even by that genetically rosy standard - critics might suggest Pollyannaish - his cheerfulness of late is remarkable.
"You'd think he'd just be happy to be getting the hell out of a place he can't stand," a close pal told the Daily News. "But he's really up. I'm amazed how up."
Bush's inner tranquility mainly derives from a profound sense of vindication regarding the Iraq war. The success of the troop surge he launched a year ago has given him the last laugh over the skeptics, Bush believes.
"He thinks we're not just winning in Iraq," says someone who speaks with Bush often, "he thinks we're routing them. He believes we're doing 10 times better than everybody else perceives."
Another Bush confidant echoes the cheerfulness, but adds Bush and Vice President Cheney remain "worried about the Army's ability to sustain the surge and very concerned with how ineffective [Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri] Maliki is because they know we're stuck with him."
Bush has also been buoyed by the thaw in Franco-American relations created by new French President Nicolas Sarkozy, an instant good friend, and continuing strong ties with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Recent meetings with both leaders proved even more successful than Bush expected, particularly on counterterrorism and Afghanistan, he has told friends.
On Capitol Hill, he's mostly reduced to playing defense. He retains enough Republican support, however, to block attempts to cut war spending.
Beyond thwarting the Democrats, his final-year agenda will focus on his longshot attempt to broker a Mideast peace deal and an economic stimulus package to keep the economy from sliding into recession before the elections. He'll also press for more authority to spy on terrorists.
Despite his optimism, Bush isn't oblivious to the reality of his weakened presidency. He privately concedes the country doesn't pay much attention to what he says any longer.
Watching the jockeying to succeed him from the sidelines, Bush recently joked he hopes the GOP race drags on a while and keeps the spotlight off him.
"If it goes on longer, maybe I won't catch as many arrows," he told a visitor.
Still, Bush approaches retirement far more serene about his legacy than most of the country and many in his party.
"We'll see what history says," he told an interviewer last week, confident he already knows the answer.
tdefrank@nydailynews.com