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Title: Could tight election races in both parties lead to brokered conventions?
Source:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/
URL Source: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/25221.html
Published: Jan 25, 2008
Author: Matt Stearns | McClatchy Newspapers
Post Date: 2008-01-26 12:40:47 by robin
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Keywords: None
Views: 430
Comments: 39
WASHINGTON — What happens if the primaries don't produce presidential nominees for one party — or the other — or both? For Democrats, the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama race could continue through the primaries. If John Edwards stays in, he could win enough delegates to prevent either Clinton or Obama from securing enough convention delegates to win the nomination. On the Republican side, the once implausible seems possible. Three candidates — Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Mitt Romney — each have won important early contests. All show strength among disparate party constituencies. A fourth candidate, Rudy Giuliani, hasn't seriously competed in any primaries yet. It's possible that the four could split primary wins — and delegates — all the way through the primary season, leaving none with a majority of delegates. Suddenly those summer conventions — ridiculed in recent years as four-day parties with scripted outcomes — could matter: Delegates might have to stay awake and sober long enough to choose a nominee. "It's not so amazing," said R. Craig Sautter, who's written three books on presidential nominating conventions. "Any time you have more than two candidates who are strong, you have the possibility of nobody going into the convention with enough delegates." It hasn't been that way for a long while. The last truly contested convention was 1976, when Republicans gathered in Kansas City. Former California Gov. Ronald Reagan fought President Gerald Ford all the way through the primaries. Ford had just enough delegates to win entering the convention. Reagan worked hard to woo some away; Ford worked equally hard to keep them. Ultimately, Ford won by a slender margin on the first ballot of delegates. The last time a convention went beyond the first ballot for the top spot on a ticket was in 1952, when it took three ballots for Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson to win the Democratic nomination. Republicans went three ballots in 1948 to give New York Gov. Tom Dewey the nomination over Ohio Sen. Robert Taft. Such excitement was once the norm, in an era when primaries mattered little because powerful local bosses controlled vast numbers of delegates who generally were party hacks. Back then, conventions were vehicles to wield power and settle scores. Even Franklin Roosevelt had to wheel and deal his way to the Democratic nomination on four ballots in Chicago in 1932. (Until 1936, Democrats required nominees to have the support of two-thirds of the delegates; now, both parties require simple majorities.) In 1924, Democrats went through 103 ballots over nine days in New York to settle on John W. Davis, a Wall Street lawyer, one-term congressman and former ambassador to Great Britain. That ended the brutal duel between the two leading candidates, New York Gov. Al Smith and Californian William McAdoo, a former secretary of the Treasury, which was heightened by the fact that many delegates were Ku Klux Klan members virulently opposed to Smith, a Roman Catholic. ``They were exhausted; people were exasperated," Sautter said. "The party was being torn apart on national radio. Davis was a person who was above the fray. He was respected by all, and the party turned to him." Davis then lost the presidency to Calvin Coolidge, winning only 29 percent of the vote. It's unlikely that 2008 would see a return to bosses sitting in smoke-filled rooms choosing compromise nominees like Davis. (Another such nominee, Warren G. Harding, was chosen after 10 ballots by Republicans in 1920.) Party reforms of the 1970s ensure that most delegates are committed to individual candidates, not controlled by party leaders. Such reforms came about after 1968, when after the assassination of Robert Kennedy, Democrats nominated Vice President Hubert Humphrey, even though he hadn't really competed in primaries. "A combination of the civil rights era, the war in Vietnam and the fact that the boss era was ending" sparked reforms, said Terry Madonna, the director of the Center for Politics & Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. "It was an effort to open (conventions) up to a wider group of constituents, more demographically balanced." As primaries gained importance, conventions became little more than marketing opportunities for the political parties. Still, a candidate would have to make deals to get over the top in a brokered convention this year. Most likely, candidates in third place or lower in the delegate count would agree to throw their support to the first- or second-place finishers on the second ballot in exchange for ... something. Democrats also have 796 "super-delegates," generally elected officials who likely would want to ensure a clean win for the nominee and avoid a nationally televised fracas at the Denver conclave. Unlike delegates chosen in primaries, they're officially unpledged — even if they've endorsed a candidate. Democrats require 2,025 delegates for the nomination. Republicans don't have super-delegates, but the rules on how delegates vote are basically left to the state and territory parties. More than 650 GOP delegates could arrive at the Minneapolis-St. Paul convention unpledged to any candidate, while more could be only informally bound to vote for a candidate, according to Jay Cost, a University of Chicago political science graduate student writing for www.realclearpolitics.com. Republicans require 1,191 delegates for the nomination. "Super-delegates could be described as an elitist check on the Democratic electorate, while the Republican side is more a maze of 54 different schemes," Cost said. The result, Madonna said: "Not only do we not know who would broker a convention without the old bosses. We're not even sure what would happen on a first ballot."
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#1. To: robin (#0)
Any "brokered" republican convention, Paul and Americans lose. Wasted effort.
But they're all having such a good time in the photo.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! And the fat olde men sitting in their walnut paneled offices watching the "circus" are laughing their butts off as them have swindled the voters again.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! Paul must come on decisively and very soon to be able to overcome the grossly unbalanced/TILTED GOP-RINO-NEOCON/CFR/RAT playing field...sure seems like we're gaining.
Our last hope for peace With a brokered convention, Americans will be left holding an empty bag with a hole in the bottom.
We won't know what his strategy is until the GOP convention is over. We can't know. If we knew, his political opponents could undermine whatever plans he has. It's going to be a very interesting year for all of us, and for American freedom.
Paul said a few days ago he was in all the way to a BROKERED CONVENTION. I see nothing from such for him or his American supporters.
Not so fast, Cyni. I have a huge stockpile of Nixon 68 t-shirts I'm still trying to unload.
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
Time for a 50 million man march?
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
Some days I get two emails pleading for money. Yet Paul calls his destination as a brokered convention and not a hint as to what he or Americans will benefit. If the convention is his destination, tell us just what we will receive in return for our money. A bone thrown to us is not going to cut it. Then to cap it off he takes a Schiff on board as "adviser".
Cyni, I'm sending your #3 on this thread to Mr. Louis Winthrop III. He’ll not be happy with your non compliant attitude. Best regards, Biff Davis II
It's Big Biznizz
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! Louie? Is that you? Get off your knees!
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
web.csustan.edu/english/reuben/pal/chap1/winthrop.html I could only find John, not Louie.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! There's a barn out in Plevna chock full of Ford's Whip buttons.
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! Ah, the proof is in the misspelling, Winthorpe!
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Winthorpe_III of course! Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! I almost landed a job of one of the rich pretty wives on that production, only to be turned away for having a penis and a pot-belly.
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
They lied, they only hire union people.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised!
a classic, they don't make 'em like that any more
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! It was great. True story. I worked with Eddie's uncle Hank Muphy in Brooklyn North. Hank retired early to do his security work. Wonderful folks.
I never would have guessed he has an uncle who was a cop ;P Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! If there is no clear majority among the delegates for any candidate, in theory, the delegates could nominate somebody who wasn't even in the primaries for their party's ticket. The ever disgusting Bill Kristol suggested that if this happens at the GOP convention, they should nominate Dick Cheney (eight years of his crookery and incompetence wasn't enough for the neocons).
If Jethro could be a cop, anyone could be a cop.
And what would Paul come away with?
It helps to be at least part Irish. My childhood neighbors, the Gillespies were all police oriented. I wonder if he ever made detective.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! Jethro aint Irish. He cant play the bagpipes.
Now you've done it
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! Is Jethro the Mick lying under the table sound asleep?
LOL, you think he be Howlin Woof?
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
Jethro has been funnin us for years. He is an "Irishman" from Bulgaria.
That's what made it funny!
"Most of the trouble in this world has been caused by folks who can't mind their own business, because they have no business of their own to mind, any more than a smallpox virus has." - William S Burroughs
hehehehehehehe
But they do have "winner take all" states. Ho hum.
Republicans (Democrats for that matter) ....... HAD ENOUGH?
Your fat old men have been replaced by filthy rich office seekers and/or filthy rich contributors. We have the best government money can buy. Ho hum.
Republicans (Democrats for that matter) ....... HAD ENOUGH?
#2. To: Cynicom (#1)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#3. To: robin (#2)
#4. To: Cynicom (#3)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#5. To: Cynicom (#1)
What North American Union? ~~~~~ Have you seen THIS yet? Pass it around...
#6. To: FOH (#5)
#7. To: FOH, Cynicom (#5)
Paul must come on decisively and very soon...
#8. To: buckeye (#7)
We can't know. If we knew, his political opponents could undermine whatever plans he has. It's going to be a very interesting year for all of us, and for American freedom.
#9. To: Cynicom (#1)
Any "brokered" republican convention, Paul and Americans lose. Wasted effort.
#10. To: Cynicom (#8)
Paul said a few days ago he was in all the way to a BROKERED CONVENTION. I see nothing from such for him or his American supporters
#11. To: Dakmar (#10)
#12. To: Cynicom (#3)
#13. To: Dakmar (#9)
Not so fast, Cyni. I have a huge stockpile of Nixon 68 t-shirts I'm still trying to unload.
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#14. To: Jethro Tull (#12)
#15. To: Jethro Tull (#12)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#16. To: robin (#13)
It's Big Biznizz
Inflation
Now
#17. To: Dakmar (#16)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#18. To: robin (#15)
I could only find John, not Louie
#19. To: Dakmar, Jethro Tull (#18)
(Edited)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#20. To: robin (#19)
#21. To: Dakmar (#20)
(Edited)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#22. To: Dakmar, robin, all (#14)
#23. To: Jethro Tull (#22)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#24. To: robin (#23)
#25. To: Jethro Tull (#24)
(Edited)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#26. To: robin (#0)
#27. To: robin (#25)
#28. To: Rupert_Pupkin (#26)
#29. To: Cynicom, Jethro Tull (#27)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#30. To: robin (#29)
#31. To: Cynicom (#30)
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#32. To: robin (#31)
#33. To: Cynicom, Jethro Tull (#30)
Jethro aint Irish. He cant play the bagpipes.
#34. To: Dakmar (#33)
#35. To: Cynicom (#34)
He is an "Irishman" from Bulgaria
#36. To: Cynicom, a short 'tube of me in action (#32)
#37. To: Jethro Tull (#36)
#38. To: robin (#0)
Republicans don't have super-delegates
#39. To: Cynicom (#3)
And the fat olde men sitting in their walnut paneled offices watching the "circus" are laughing their butts off as them have swindled the voters again.
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