Rasmussen Reports is looking at the impact of Michael Bloomberg and Ron Paul as potential third party or independent candidates in the 2008 elections.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that roughly 15% of voters would currently vote for one of these two candidates in general election match-ups. When the two candidates are mentioned as independent options in match-ups between Mitt Romney and the two Democratic frontrunners, Paul and Bloomberg attract roughly the same level of support. When John McCain is mentioned as the Republican candidate in a match-up with Barack Obama, Ron Paul earns 11% of the vote while Bloomberg attracts 5%.
At this time, the net impact of such third party efforts appears to benefit the Democrats.
In a head-to-head match-up between Romney and Obama, Obama currently leads by nine percentage points. When Bloomberg and Paul are added to the list of possible candidates, Obama’s lead grows to twelve points, 42% to 30%. Paul attracts 8% of the vote, Bloomberg 6%.
Hillary Clinton leads Romney by five in a head-to-head match-up, but her lead grows to fourteen points with Bloomberg and Paul in the mix—Clinton 46% Romney 32% Bloomberg 7% Paul 7%.
In a McCain-Obama poll, the Democrat leads by five. That grows to seven points with the third party options—Obama 40% McCain 33% Paul 11% Bloomberg 5%.
The pair of third party candidates attract from 13% to 17% of Republicans in each match-up. They earn only 5% to 10% of the Democratic vote.
Additionally, they polled to see whether respondents think Paul or Bloomberg will eventually throw their hats into the presidential race as independent or third party candidates:
Twenty-six percent (26%) of American voters believe New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is at least somewhat likely to make a third-party or independent bid for the White House in 2008. That includes 5% who say he is Very Likely to do so. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say that Texas Congressman Ron Paul will run as an alternative to the two major parties. Eleven percent (11%) believe he is Very Likely to do so.
I suspect that Paul’s numbers might be higher in any scenario where Hillary Clinton is the nominee, as the anti-war vote will probably still be fairly significant still on election day. This is partially offset by any support Cynthia McKinney might generate from her Green Party bid. Should the Greens nominate someone other than McKinney or Ralph Nader, I’d expect to see a higher total for Paul. With respect to Bloomberg, I’m a bit perplexed about where his support might come from, except for “change” voters. What’s known of his political positions, so far at least, doesn’t seem to separate him from the leading Republicans and Democrats enough to engender him so much support.
Additional factors to consider: Bloomberg has a lot of money and may be prepared to spend a large chunk of it, Paul has a considerable base of grassroots support and the proven ability to raise significant amounts of money, Paul has pre-exisiting third party ties and support, Bloomberg and Paul have very different positions on a lot of issues (i.e. Iraq War, Second Amendment) voters find very important.