[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Sign-in] [Mail] [Setup] [Help]
Status: Not Logged In; Sign In
|
(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: The Potential Impact of a Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg Independent or Third Party Campaign Rasmussen Reports is looking at the impact of Michael Bloomberg and Ron Paul as potential third party or independent candidates in the 2008 elections. When the two candidates are mentioned as independent options in match-ups between Mitt Romney and the two Democratic frontrunners, Paul and Bloomberg attract roughly the same level of support. When John McCain is mentioned as the Republican candidate in a match-up with Barack Obama, Ron Paul earns 11% of the vote while Bloomberg attracts 5%. At this time, the net impact of such third party efforts appears to benefit the Democrats. In a head-to-head match-up between Romney and Obama, Obama currently leads by nine percentage points. When Bloomberg and Paul are added to the list of possible candidates, Obama’s lead grows to twelve points, 42% to 30%. Paul attracts 8% of the vote, Bloomberg 6%. Hillary Clinton leads Romney by five in a head-to-head match-up, but her lead grows to fourteen points with Bloomberg and Paul in the mix—Clinton 46% Romney 32% Bloomberg 7% Paul 7%. In a McCain-Obama poll, the Democrat leads by five. That grows to seven points with the third party options—Obama 40% McCain 33% Paul 11% Bloomberg 5%. The pair of third party candidates attract from 13% to 17% of Republicans in each match-up. They earn only 5% to 10% of the Democratic vote. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say that Texas Congressman Ron Paul will run as an alternative to the two major parties. Eleven percent (11%) believe he is Very Likely to do so. With respect to Bloomberg, I’m a bit perplexed about where his support might come from, except for “change” voters. What’s known of his political positions, so far at least, doesn’t seem to separate him from the leading Republicans and Democrats enough to engender him so much support. Additional factors to consider: Bloomberg has a lot of money and may be prepared to spend a large chunk of it, Paul has a considerable base of grassroots support and the proven ability to raise significant amounts of money, Paul has pre-exisiting third party ties and support, Bloomberg and Paul have very different positions on a lot of issues (i.e. Iraq War, Second Amendment) voters find very important.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 1.
#1. To: angle (#0)
A Few Observations: I thought I heard Ron Paul say he would not run as a third party candidate. Democrats and independents are not following the Republican debates so they know McCain but do not know Romney. After a Republican gets the nomination his poll numbers will jump 10%. You can ask President Dukakis about that. Hillary has been around for ages and her poll numbers should be treated as if she were an incumbent. On the final weekend polls before the 1980 election Carter was in the lead but lost. All the undecideds broke against Carter because an undecided voter is likely to break against the incumbent he knows. Her poll numbers are weak for an incumbent. This would indicate to me that Obama is a stronger candidate than Hillary. I can't think of anyone in his right mind who would vote for Bloomberg. The election will not be decided until Diebold has counted the votes. Diebold seems to favor corruption over honesty and Zionism over peace.
#4. To: Horse (#1)
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest |
||
|
[Home]
[Headlines]
[Latest Articles]
[Latest Comments]
[Post]
[Sign-in]
[Mail]
[Setup]
[Help]
|
||