See other (s)Elections Articles
Title: McCain Will Not Have Enough Delegates in JUNE - We are Going to a Brokered Convention
Source:
http://www.ronpaulwarroom.com/?p=5233
URL Source: http://ronpaulwarroom.com
Published: Feb 7, 2008
Author: ronpaulwarroom.com
Post Date: 2008-02-07 15:24:27 by TwentyTwelve
Keywords: Brokered Convention, McCain
Views: 303
Comments: 7
McCain Will Not Have Enough Delegates in JUNE - We are Going to a Brokered Convention By zooamerica | February 7, 2008 Candidate Delegates Mike Huckabee 190 John McCain 703 Ron Paul 14 Mitt Romney 293 - these delegates are now “frozen” - but come convention time, they will be free to vote for who they want to. This “suspension” helps Ron Paul’s campaign. Upcoming primaries and caucuses - predicted winner 02/09/08 Kan. Caucus 39 - Huckabee 02/09/08 La. Primary 46 - Paul 02/09/08 Wash. Caucus 41 - Paul 02/12/08 D.C. Primary 19 - McCain 02/12/08 Md. Primary 38 - McCain 02/12/08 Va. Primary 64 - Huckabee 02/19/08 Wis. Primary 40 - McCain 03/04/08 Ohio Primary 91 - Huckabee 03/04/08 R.I. Primary 21 - McCain 03/04/08 Texas Primary 138 - Paul 03/04/08 Vt. Primary 18 - McCain 03/11/08 Miss. Primary 37 - Huckabee 04/22/08 Pa. Primary 75 - Huckabee 05/06/08 Ind. Primary 55 - Huckabee 05/06/08 N.C. Primary 67 - Huckabee 05/13/08 Neb. Primary 35 - Huckabee 05/16/08 Hawaii Primary 20 - McCain 05/20/08 Ky. Primary 45 - Huckabee 05/20/08 Ore. Primary 31 - McCain 05/27/08 Idaho Primary 32 - Paul 06/03/08 N.M. Primary 24 - McCain 06/03/08 S.D. Primary 27 - Paul Come June, McCain will have won 211 more delegates… 703 + 211 = 914 Let’s say McCain pulls out the win in Texas… 914 + 138 = 1052 McCain is still short of the 1,191 delegates necessary to win the nomination. Add in Ohio, and he’s still short. AND these states (except 3) are not winner take all states - meaning the delegates will be split and distributed to 2nd and 3rd place finishers… We have a long road to go… McCain doesn’t have enough campaign cash left to make it past May. Ron Paul could potentially go into the GOP convention with almost 300 delegates. A brokered convention was the plan from day 1, why change now?
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)
"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡
Nobody knows what is going on right now. Mass confusion.
John McCain 703 Ron Paul 14 Mitt Romney 293 - these delegates are now “frozen” - but come convention time, they will be free to vote for who they want to. This “suspension” helps Ron Paul’s campaign. Wow! Thank you for this report. Both conventions look like they have some real fights.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today! The Revolution will not be televised! It occurs to me on whilst driving around today that Romney dropping out could be a godsend to Paul. Here's why and what Paul MUST do if he is to make anything out of his campaign. 1st, Assumptions: a)McCain is hated by the vast majority of Republican base voters. Whether you call them evangelicals, immigration voters, fiscal conservatives, whatever... they HATE the man. So much that many of them would rather see Hillary in Office than vote for McCain. b)The vote of the foregoing base voters has been split from day one amongst Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Rudy Guiliani and Mitt Romney types. These have been battling it out and taking from each other. Each time one dropped out, their voters would go to the next available guy, finally ending up with Romney most recently. c) Huckabee is unelectable and most ofthe base conservatives know it. d) Even if he were electable, he is enough of an establishment guy that he would bow to McCain if McCain continues to outstrip him for delegates, probably accepting a VP nod to keep his election chances alive for 2012. e) Even though, Romney is out, Guiliani is out and so forth, most of the people who support these guys would still rather see their guy in than McCain and think their guy could beat Hillary or Obama if given the chance. 2nd: Analysis The only hope these voters have of putting forth a "conservative" (to their thinking) is if McCain can be shunted aside and their guy put forward but there is no hope of that now that their last hope is gone. If they put their votes over to Huckabee, they must know that Huckabee will eventually drop out to accept a VP slot on a losing slate. Therefore, they NEED a brokered convention in which McCain cannot win a majority and then all their guys get a second shot. If the convention is brokered then one of their guys may go to the fore, most likely Romney (so the thinking would go). In order to get to a brokered convention there is only ONE way to obtain that result. That way is to vote for Paul. If Paul got enough delegates to deprive McCain of a majority then the party hacks get to decide at the convention. They would think, and reasonably so, that Paul will never get the nomination and so, one of their guys gets it. 3rd: What to do: Ron Paul must start spending all that money he has collected to convince the Romney/Guiuliani/Thomspon/Hunter etc voters that they can come out ahead in a brokered convention. All they have to do is deprive McCain of his now "inevitable" win and keep Huckabee from throwing in the towel behind McCain. By voting for Paul, even if Huck throws in the towel, they can get a real shot at nominating someone they want to vote for instead of staying home. There's an awful lot of Republican voters that despise McCain and would welcome the chance to keep him out of a fight with Hillary. 4th: How it Helps Paul Doing the foregoing would help Paul's admittedly slim chances at a brokered convention by at least finally getting him some air time on the network news who could not fail to report first place wins. With some wins he could finally get some of his message out. If he concentrated on emphasizing those parts of his platform that DO stand in good stead with the aforesaid voters he may even win some of them over. 5th: Conclusion If Paul is to have any chance at all, he has got to get the supporters of the people who have dropped out to get behind him. If he could do that then he could probably take quite a few states outright. Then he gets his brokered convention. But getting the other guys supporters behind him is critical.By holding the possibility that Romney/Guiuliani/Thomspon/Hunter will come back to life at a brokered convention he just may get them.
McCain just spoke on the Electric Jew and pledged war on not only Iran but on all enemies of Israel. Hitler was a Sunday School teacher compared to to MCain. If sane Americans cannot unite to stop this madman and his Zionist masters, humanity is doomed. McCain should be certified and committed before he startws a war where billions of folks perish.
Life is a tragedy to those who feel, and a comedy to those who think.
Hey guys, former romney supporter here
#2. To: ghostdogtxn (#1)
This shit doesn't yet make sense to me.
#3. To: TwentyTwelve, *Ron Paul for President 2008* (#0)
Mike Huckabee 190
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.-T Jefferson
#4. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)
#5. To: ghostdogtxn (#1)
#6. To: robin (#3)
#7. To: ghostdogtxn (#1)
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest