The perfect storm for social upheaval is now brewing in Mexico— and in particular Mexico's northern states along the U.S. border.
The first storm front is to the east at a place called Cantarell. Long a blessing, Cantarell is Mexico's largest oil field— and largest source of government funds. Output from Cantarell is down more than 15 percent from last year and many believe the field is now in irreversible decline. Thus, government budgets are being strained.
The second front is to the north. As the U.S. economy has slowed so have remittances from the United States to Mexico. The housing crunch has disproportionately affected Mexican labor (both legal and illegal). As U.S. construction, landscaping, remodeling, and other housing-related jobs have evaporated so has a vital source of income to Mexico.
The third storm front is food. America's well-intentioned but misguided emphasis on ethanol has caused food prices to rise beyond the poor's income. Corn prices have tripled and tortilla prices have soared. Food riots and protests are now common throughout Mexico and confidence in the government is eroding.
The result is this: income flows to Mexico are falling while social unrest is rising.
Predictably, this storm is now manifesting in violence in Mexico's northern states and it is becoming apparent that Mexico is having difficulties maintaining stability. Meanwhile, drug cartels are having no such monetary problems.
Well-financed and well-armed drug cartels effectively compete with Mexican police and army units for control of large sections of the border. Open shoot-outs between government forces and drug gangs are becoming more common.
When the power shifts enough, the drug cartel effectively becomes the ruling government. When the government gets the upper hand, however, it is not uncommon for the drug lords to flee across the border to sanctuary in the United States, where they rearm, re-equip and reorganize. Some Texas towns are now warning their citizens to stay away from the border because the lawlessness is out of control.
Meanwhile, south of the border, Mexico's honest citizens are faced with one of three choices: hide, fight or flee. Most are currently choosing to hide with the hope that the violence will subside. If, however, the violence escalates and conditions continue to deteriorate, history is clear— flight becomes the next best option. More than likely they will flee north to safety.
Thus, while the debate rages in America over illegal immigration, events on the ground are evolving in an entirely different direction.
America's next border issue may not involve people crossing to improve their lives, but rather people crossing to save their lives.
Zanetti, along with 80 other members of the N.M. National Guard, is serving a year-long tour at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where he is second in command.