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Title: OBAMA OR HILLARY? WHITE MEN WILL DECIDE
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URL Source: http://www.newswithviews.com/Roberts/carey217.htm
Published: Mar 18, 2008
Author: Carey Roberts
Post Date: 2008-03-18 09:15:03 by christine
Keywords: None
Views: 764
Comments: 71
As Barack Obama relishes his recent primary victories in Wyoming and Mississippi, let’s probe the dynamics of race and gender in this increasingly-bitter Democratic race.
Just a few months ago Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in for the Democratic presidential nomination. Now amazingly, the latest Gallup poll shows Barack Obama leading by five points.
So what prompted the turn-around? Let’s examine the Democratic primaries and caucuses where exit polling was done. Of these 29 contests, Clinton won 14 and Obama prevailed in 15.
The American electorate consists of four major voting blocks: white females, white males, blacks, and hispanics. In most Democratic primaries, white females outnumber white males by about 50%. In the South, blacks represent a sizable proportion of the electorate, while in California and the Southwest, Hispanics are a force to be reckoned with.
For white women, blacks, and Hispanics, their vote in the Democratic primaries and caucuses has been unsurprising:
- White women: This electoral group has lined up predictably behind Mrs. Clinton. The only states where Clinton lost the white female vote were Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico, and Vermont. - Blacks: African-Americans have voted overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. - Hispanics: About two-thirds of Hispanics have tipped their hat to Clinton, with telling effects on the races in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. So while the votes of white women, blacks, and Hispanics have been predictable, white men have been anything other than humdrum.
In 14 states -- Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Tennessee -- the white male vote went for Mrs. Clinton.
By contrast in 13 states – California, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Vermont – white men pulled the lever in favor of Mr. Obama. In Texas and Delaware they split evenly between the two candidates.
Now look at the results. When Hillary captured the white male vote, she won 9 out of 14 contests. But when the guys favored Obama, he triumphed in 9 of the 15 races. If that’s not throwing an election, I don’t know what is.
For example in Utah, Obama cornered 64% of the white male vote. In Vermont, male voters turned out in droves to support Obama by a 29-point edge. Obama easily won both of those primary battles.
In three states -- Connecticut, Georgia, and Maryland – white males joined forces with Blacks to put Obama over the top. In Connecticut, Virginia, and Wisconsin, Obama overpowered Clinton’s female advantage thanks to his strong showing among white males.
By contrast, the white female vote did not determine the outcome in any of the Obama victories. As ABC pollster Gary Langer concludes, “in states with significant but not vast numbers of black voters, and few Hispanics, white men are critical.” Despite their smaller numbers, Democratic white males, who are supporting Obama by a 60-40% margin, have emerged as the critical swing group.
So is men’s support of Barack Obama the latest example of incorrigible sexism, the dreaded patriarchy again conspiring to keep women down?
Here’s the surprising answer: Among white females, 35% say the sex of the candidate plays a major role, and these women voted for Clinton by an overwhelming 78-17% margin, according to ABC. In comparison, only 17% of white males say the candidate’s sex is important. And get this – those men also favored Clinton 54 to 35%.
So sexism clearly is a factor in the 2008 Democratic primary race. For women and men alike, that bias operates strongly in favor of candidate Hillary Clinton.
Democrats have always considered the gender gap to be a knock on conservativism, proof the Republican Party is unable to attract the female vote. But this time the Dems must face up to the disparity within their own ranks.
So why have so many liberal white men turned their backs on Hillary? Polling data reveal men are less apt to believe Clinton would be the best commander-in-chief.
And men are 17 points less likely to believe Clinton would unite the country. Having been on the receiving end of Hillary’s gender put-downs, white males wonder if Hillary’s agenda is to let them out to pasture while the pantsuits run the country.
David Paul Kuhn has written in The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic Dilemma, “No factor has been more instrumental in causing the Democratic decline in presidential politics than the loss of white men.” If Barack Obama ends up winning the nomination, we will add, “No factor was more responsible for the demise of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid than her snubbing of the white male voter.”
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#1. To: christine (#0)
I choose Obama.
Check out my blog, America, the Bushieful.
Rendell was correct.
LOL! "Just be quiet boys, if we need you we'll call you!"
By the time this is all over, Obama won't know what hit him. The Clinton's promised the kitchen sink would be thrown his way. Pastor Wright will be followed by drug allegations, anti-white, anti- American quotes, prior arrests as a youth, and of course, marital indiscretions. After they do him, they'll play smash mouth with Michelle. Obama is toast.
I am allowed to answer the phone if the boss is not at home. At work I was PAID to answer phones.
Black burnt toast.
whipped (funny)
How very white of you.
Well, why not a little racial, bigoted humor to start off the morning???? If Obummer could find a Jewish ancestor or two I could throw in some semetic material.
I think you're calling it. Imagine if President Obama's first official act is to suspend foreign aid to all countries who don't permit inspections of their nuclear capabilities. That would be lawful, in accordance with the NPT and other treaties and he could do it on his own authority with no congressional endorsement necessary. And, just for effect what's to stop him from taking the oath on a Koran while wearing traditional Muslim garb, then announcing, "This is a new day in America!"? I suspect that some folks are very afraid of him, and we haven't seen their best yet....
Yeah I understand. I've been married since, Hell, I was born married! :)
Obama has already won. It's the Clintons who are toast.
Check out my blog, America, the Bushieful.
Obummer will be lucky if the Clinton/Bush cabal allows him to ride in the BACK of the bus.
If you are correct, that makes McKook next president.
That comes as no surprise.
"Look well therefore to this Day!" ~ Kalidasa
I bring you back to your lofty thoughts about RPs recent campaign. I was able to see past the blimp.
You not going to intimate I am fibbing?????? Is the painful truth.
I shudder at the thot of McKook as President. I would have to invest in one of those prefabricated fallout shelters.
That's not quite accurate. White men can decide if they quit pouting over not not being able to vote for their first choice, or some mythical "perfect" candidate, or if somehow they choose to stay home in case Obama is nominated and turns out to be a disappointment thereby allowing them the fruitless, negative privilege of saying "I tried to tell you so" for four years.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
Lets just bury a yellow school bus in your yard after we pack it with Spam.
Unfortunately, we already know that electronic voting can be relied upon to deliver the desired results, and the 5 to 4 majority PUB SCOTUS will reliably sustain the election results regardless of the taint that may attach. I understand your enthusiasm but, if you believe that Obama is what he appears to be, a selfless, honest public servant, then perhaps you need to acquaint yourself with Cook County, Ill. There's a reasonable chance that he can be torpedoed as easily as Dan Rostenkowski, who as the former chair of Ways & Means was the most powerful DEM in Congress, and also from Ill. But, the Cook County, Chicago-area machine is by definition corrupt. If Obama was squeaky clean it's highly doubtful that the machine would have backed him, and he definitely would not have been the keynote speaker at the 2004 convention in Boston.
He doesn't have to be perfect or mythical. We'd settle for someone we like and respect.
Yertle Turtle already selling such safe shelters in the Ozarks. Turtle does include a months supply of terlet paper.
I understand the Turtle makes for a peculiar neighbor, with his love of plaid bermuda shorts and pugs.
b u m p
"Look well therefore to this Day!" ~ Kalidasa
By promise, Jethro, I presume you mean it was a 100% given based on their history of lies, dirty politics, and double teaming ... an equal opportunity offering of evil regardless of gender. The fact that the contest has gone this far is to the everlasting shame of surrendering white men in a pout. My eye witness observation (albeit, limited to one polling place) is that women of all political stripes did not sit on their butts.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
After seeing what the last two idiots from my generation, gender, and race have done to our country, and the world in general, I'm ready to take a chance on a younger generation half-breed and see how it goes. Surely, it can't get much worse.
This will undoubtedly be the white man's cop-out if/when Hillary succeeds to the position of second straight tyrant in the White House.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
Wanna bet???? Lod you of all people know full well that the lesser of three evils means nothing and that any person put forth by the system is owned and operated by them.
The use of the term "copout" implies that you have special insight and that electronic voting isn't rigged. Do you and, isn't it? Copout indeed.
He's the first likable candidate that has gotten this far since Ron Reagan.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
As if they actually affect the ultimate outcome. It didn't matter that I've stood in line for hours at the polls for the past 20 years, Delaware's three electoral votes went to the person I was voting against every time. In fact Delawareans need not even bother going to the polls because the outcome would be the same if none of us voted. The social security/Medicare/Israel/Department Of Education/military industrial complex platform is re-elected every time.
I don't know if it qualifies as insight, but I can offer you this. A lifetime occupation of presenting opportunities for change and improvement in business operations revealed to me an astounding number of persons of all genders and colors with a mind boggling amount fear of and resistance to change.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
No way. It's been straight downhill since 1963 from my perspective.
Anyone who isn't a escaped war criminal would seem marginally likable when we're at Threat Level Hillary! You don't believe that some white men voted for Obama in any meaningful numbers because they like him, do you? He'd get the same votes if he does a Stepin Fetchit impression, but he would zero out if he turned native and aped Al Sharpton.
I have no idea what people of your attitude are doing on a forum of political discussion. Wouldn't packing packing up your duds and ammo and heading for an Idaho or Montana enclave make more sense?
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
Since I no longer vote for anyone, for anything, I'm one white man who doesn't fit your equation. As I've told you before, for purely selfish reasons, I'd rather look at Obama & Michelle for the next 4 years, as opposed to THEM. I still think he's an unabashed socialist who will be no worse, or no better than any of the previous presidents I've had the displeasure of watching over the years. They're figure heads, nothing more. Good luck with the horse race. I just happen to believe the Clinton's are borderline personalities, capable of anything.
"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡
You don't believe that some white men voted for Obama in any meaningful numbers because they like him, do you? Frankly, I do believe it, but I don't give a rat's ass if you're assumption is true. He'd get the same votes if he does a Stepin Fetchit impression, but he would zero out if he turned native and aped Al Sharpton. If one thing has been crystal clear from day one it is that Obama is no Jackson or Sharpton. In fact those two and large numbers of other blacks were, like you, dead set on settling for "same ole, same ole" at the onset of the contest.
Success is relative. It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things. T. S. Eliot
Comments (41 - 71) not displayed.
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#2. To: christine (#0)
#3. To: christine (#0)
Having been on the receiving end of Hillary’s gender put-downs, white males wonder if Hillary’s agenda is to let them out to pasture while the pantsuits run the country.
#4. To: all (#0)
#5. To: HOUNDDAWG (#3)
#6. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
#7. To: HOUNDDAWG (#3)
#8. To: Cynicom (#6)
#9. To: Jethro Tull (#8)
How very white of you.
#10. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
By the time this is all over, Obama won't know what hit him. The Clinton's promised the kitchen sink would be thrown his way. Pastor Wright will be followed by drug allegations, anti-white, anti- American quotes, prior arrests as a youth, and of course, marital indiscretions. After they do him, they'll play smash mouth with Michelle. Obama is toast.
#11. To: Cynicom (#5)
I am allowed to answer the phone if the boss is not at home. At work I was PAID to answer phones.
#12. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
By the time this is all over, Obama won't know what hit him.
#13. To: HOUNDDAWG, Jethro Tull (#10)
and we haven't seen their best yet....
#14. To: Arator (#12)
Obama has already won. It's the Clintons who are toast.
#15. To: Cynicom (#5)
I am allowed to answer the phone if the boss is not at home.
#16. To: Arator (#12)
Obama has already won. It's the Clintons who are toast.
#17. To: angle (#15)
That comes as no surprise.
#18. To: Jethro Tull (#16)
#19. To: christine (#0)
WHITE MEN WILL DECIDE
#20. To: Cynicom (#18)
I would have to invest in one of those prefabricated fallout shelters.
#21. To: Arator (#12)
Obama has already won. It's the Clintons who are toast.
#22. To: Jethro Tull, Yertle turtle (#20)
(Edited)
#23. To: iconoclast (#19)
White men can decide if they quit pouting over not not being able to vote for their first choice, or some mythical "perfect" candidate, or if somehow they choose to stay home in case Obama is nominated and turns out to be a disappointment thereby allowing them the fruitless, negative privilege of saying "I tried to tell you so" for four years.
#24. To: Jethro Tull, Yertle Turtle (#20)
Lets just bury a yellow school bus in your yard after we pack it with Spam.
#25. To: Cynicom (#22)
#26. To: HOUNDDAWG (#21)
Unfortunately, we already know that electronic voting can be relied upon to deliver the desired results...
#27. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
(Edited)
The Clinton's promised the kitchen sink would be thrown his way.
#28. To: christine. the thread (#0)
#29. To: HOUNDDAWG (#21)
Unfortunately, we already know that electronic voting can be relied upon to deliver the desired results, and the 5 to 4 majority PUB SCOTUS will reliably sustain the election results regardless of the taint that may attach.
#30. To: lodwick (#28)
Surely, it can't get much worse.
#31. To: iconoclast (#29)
#32. To: HOUNDDAWG (#23)
We'd settle for someone we like and respect.
#33. To: iconoclast (#27)
My eye witness observation (albeit, limited to one polling place) is that women of all political stripes did not sit on their butts.
#34. To: HOUNDDAWG, lodwick (#31)
The use of the term "copout" implies that you have special insight
#35. To: Cynicom (#30)
Wanna bet????
#36. To: iconoclast (#32)
He's the first likable candidate that has gotten this far since Ron Reagan.
#37. To: HOUNDDAWG (#33)
As if they actually affect the ultimate outcome.
#38. To: iconoclast (#27)
The fact that the contest has gone this far is to the everlasting shame of surrendering white men in a pout.
#39. To: Jethro Tull (#4)
#40. To: HOUNDDAWG (#36)
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