---snip--- In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now leads Clinton 47% to 42%. Yesterday, Obama led 45% to 44% (see recent daily results). These results are based nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Just one night of polling is included since Obama’s speech and that single night result is not much different from the four-day average. The reason for today’s Obama bounce is that Friday night’s results have rolled out of the four-day sample. Following the initial media frenzy over Pastor Wright, Friday’s results were the single worst night of polling for Obama since the Primary Season began.
While the full impact of Obama’s speech will not be known for some time, early indications are that it may have helped Obama more in the Democratic Primary competition than in a potential General Election match-up. Obama is currently seen as having a 43.4 % chance of becoming the next President while expectations for McCain are at 39.5 %.
Rasmussen Markets data showed that Obama was given a 75% chance of winning the Democratic nomination just before the furor erupted over Wright’s comments. They fell to 71% on the eve of his speech but bounced back to close at 75% yesterday (current pricing: 73.1 %). However, following the speech, there was virtually no change in the expectations of which party will ultimately win the White House this fall.