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Business/Finance
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Title: DOW DOWN 300 - MERRILL LYNCH TO LOSE 15 BILLION (again)
Source: money.cnn.com
URL Source: http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?
Published: Mar 19, 2008
Author: Staff
Post Date: 2008-03-19 16:18:33 by Uncle Bill
Keywords: Guns/ammo, Gold/silver, Canned Food/Water
Views: 5867
Comments: 3

Dow Jones Industrial Average


Note: Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg Wants Socialist New Deal 2.0

Talk of Writedowns Hit Merrill Lynch

24/7 Wall Street
By Jon C. Ogg
March 19, 2008

This is just becoming all too familiar in the financial stocks, and the bears are still in charge since we can't hold a major up-day. Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) is feeling the wrath of writedown rumors today. It has been seen with a sharp drop in the stock today, and it has also been seen with major volume in put options. The March options expire tomorrow, so traders are going out to April with more than 120,000 put contracts in the April 18 expirations trading hands.

The company already announced it was suing SCA over written down assets but that is on old and already written-down numbers according to contacts. More importantly, the talk is on yet another major writedown coming soon. The figure vary from source to source, but the figures started out as being "more than $5 Billion" today. Then we were told it could be $10 or $12 Billion, and someone else that is close to many primary brokers noted that $15 Billion is what some are talking about internally at Merrill Lynch.

Before you go jump out the window, please keep in mind that this is all based on what traders and brokers are talking about today. These aren't rumors as much as they are traders trying to factor in as much as they can in more write-offs. It is also on the week of the big brokerage firms reporting earnings. What should be expected is that more writedowns ARE COMING without question. There is no way those writedowns will end suddenly, and the sad part is that many assets are bing written down to a "mark to theory" basis.

Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was a winner yesterday on many rumors of better solutions coming, although that also now feels like it was a long time ago. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is still positive today after its earnings beat expectations.

What is more important than any big numbers here by far is the notion of what write-offs will be paper and what write-offs will cause implosions. If it is merely on paper and broker and bank counterparties don't cut the institutions off, then the talk may be wasted time.

Outside of that, you've probably already gotten used to seeing writedowns from major financial institutions either each day or each week. Even if S&P was right about being past the halfway mark, that isn't going to end immediately.

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#1. To: Uncle Bill (#0)

MERRILL LYNCH TO LOSE 15 BILLION (again)

Maybe I could help them find part of it?

I know where to look.

Cynicom  posted on  2008-03-19   16:20:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Jethro Tull (#0)

Billionaire Lewis moves to block JP Morgan


Note again:

A financial crisis unmatched since the Great Depression

UK facing worst financial crisis 'in decades'

Closer To Financial Meltdown

In this pdf file, Table 1 is as follows:

As the article states:

The undeniable truth: In the grand casino of derivatives trading, JPMorgan Chase is overwhelmingly and unabashedly the biggest player of them all. As you can plainly see in the table above, it controls ...

$91.7 trillion in derivatives, or over 53% of all derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks, among which are ...

Nearly $7.8 trillion in the oft-inflammable credit derivatives, or 55.6% of the total.

And all with little more than $1.2 trillion in assets!

JPMorgan Chase will be going down in flames.

"God wouldn't have made sheep if he didn't expect them to be sheared." - J.P. Morgan

How poetic.


"Asked if the nation could slip into a depression lasting several years, 59% said it was likely, and 79% said they were worried about it."


Chris Whalen, of the Wall Street consultancy Institutional Risk Analytics, said: “This is going to go all the way up the chain. There is a risk that all broker dealers are going to become an endangered species if the credit crisis is not sorted out. If they can’t fund themselves, they will have to shrink. All the other firms are in danger, too.” He said that should the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission not devise a broad rescue plan to address the credit turmoil on Wall Street this weekend, “I would not be surprised to see an emergency bank holiday announced. That hasn’t happened since Roosevelt.” During the Depression, 75 years ago almost to the day, Franklin Roosevelt declared a four- day bank holiday, which stemmed a frantic run on banks. Mr Whalen added that should banks such as Lehman continue to be unable to sell the billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities held, they were doomed. He said: “Broker dealers have to be able to get rid of assets. If they are illiquid, they die.”


Fannie Mae Executives Step Down - regulators said last fall that the company had manipulated earnings by purposely misapplying a new accounting rule...The company has estimated it may have to record $9 billion of previously unreported losses related to financial instruments known as derivatives

----------

BARRON'S: Is Fannie Mae the Next Government Bailout?

Press 1 for English, Press 2 for English, Press 3 for deportation

Death of Habeas Corpus: “Your words are lies, Sir.”

Uncle Bill  posted on  2008-03-19   17:00:26 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Jethro Tull (#2)

Fannie, Freddie cleared by George W. Bush to pump $200 billion into market

Press 1 for English, Press 2 for English, Press 3 for deportation

Death of Habeas Corpus: “Your words are lies, Sir.”

Uncle Bill  posted on  2008-03-19   17:07:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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