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War, War, War See other War, War, War Articles Title: The Basra fight for Shia supremacy (FINANCIAL TIMES EDITORIAL) The Basra fight for Shia supremacy The US -- and maybe Britain -- risks joining the civil war Published: March 27 2008 19:54 | Last updated: March 27 2008 19:54 The battle in southern Iraq between government forces and Basra militiamen not only demonstrates how fragile are the security gains of the US troops “surge” of the past year. It could be the prelude to a deadly new phase in Iraq’s multi-cornered civil war, sucking American (and residual British) forces into the struggle for power within the majority Shia community. Ostensibly, the Iraqi national army offensive is to regain control of Basra, the gateway to the Gulf for Iraq’s oil industry, which fell into the lawless clutches of competing Shia militias while under British occupation. In that sense, the Basra push would seem unobjectionable: it is not only the right but the duty of any national government to extend the rule of law to all its citizens. This is, furthermore, the biggest operation mounted by Iraqi forces on their own. But the Shia-dominated administration of Nouri al-Maliki is a national government in name only. In practice it has ceased even pretending to pursue a communalist agenda, preferring the even narrower sectarian interest of the prime minister’s faction of the Da’wa (Call) party and that of its allies in the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq led by Abdelaziz al-Hakim. The Iraqi national army, moreover, is really rebadged militia: in this instance mostly the Badr brigades of the Supreme Council. That is why the offensive is targeting Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi army. The Hakims, backed by Tehran as well as Washington, want power in Baghdad, but underpinned by an oil-rich mini-state made up of the nine mainly Shia provinces of southern Iraq. Another local militia, a Sadrist splinter called Fadhila (Virtue), mainly wants to control the lucrative oil-smuggling trade. It has buttressed these aims through rough control of the oil ministry and a project for a three-province mini-region that would contain most of Iraq’s oil. Mr Sadr, however, wants to be both the paramount Shia leader and the Arab nationalist leader of a united Iraq. He is seen as a mortal threat by the Maliki government (from which he has withdrawn) and the US occupation. Even though the Mahdi army has been on ceasefire since last August – one of the main reasons for the relative success of the surge – US forces and allied militia have been picking off Sadrist cadres. Mr Sadr has not ended the truce. But the blowing up of one of Iraq’s main oil export pipelines and rocketing of Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone are a warning he may do so if the fighting continues to spread. The Sadrists, the main winners of the 2005 elections, are the political expression of the majority of the majority – the Shia poor – and cannot be eliminated militarily. The US-led occupation forces will do nothing for their reputation or the future of Iraq by taking sides in an intra-Shia test of militia strength.
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