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Title: NOT on MSM - Obama “the great unifier” has an unfavorability rating of 40%
Source: http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/?p=37
URL Source: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/Pol ... d3-fbda-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05
Published: Mar 30, 2008
Author: admin
Post Date: 2008-04-09 13:46:08 by Peppa
Keywords: Obama, Troops, Withdrawal
Views: 173
Comments: 17

Posted by admin March 30, 2008 This is a poll mainstream media (MSM) will never tell you about. Obama “the great unifier” (cough) has an unfavorability rating of 40% according to a new poll (surveyUSA - March 27/2008) Source:
www.surveyusa.com/client/...da-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05

Poster Comment:

Overall Unfavorable %

Clinton 42
McCain 39
Cheney 55
Bush 61
Spitzer 50
I wonder if there are other polls to compare this to?

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  

#1. To: Peppa (#0)

Barack Obama: 51.90 +2.200
John McCain: 39.60 +0.400
Hillary Clinton: 9.00 +0.000
Al Gore: 2.20 +0.000
Ron Paul: 0.30 -0.200

...Both methods yielded similar results, which support the previous findings; that is, of all modern human samples, sub-Saharan Africans again exhibit the closest phenetic similarity to various African Plio-Pleistocene hominins...
Ancient teeth and modern human origins: An expanded comparison of African Plio-Pleistocene and recent world dental samples, Journal of Human Evolution Volume 45, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 113-144

Tauzero  posted on  2008-04-09   13:51:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

I'm guessing this is a % overall favorable?? What about the date and source.. I know there are people here that can weight them properly, but I forgot who they were.. :/

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   14:04:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

I'm guessing this is a % overall favorable??

Intrade's current price of futures contracts, individual, to win the presidency. Payoff is $100, so the price is equivalent to percentage, except for market friction, so they don't always add up to 100.

...Both methods yielded similar results, which support the previous findings; that is, of all modern human samples, sub-Saharan Africans again exhibit the closest phenetic similarity to various African Plio-Pleistocene hominins...
Ancient teeth and modern human origins: An expanded comparison of African Plio-Pleistocene and recent world dental samples, Journal of Human Evolution Volume 45, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 113-144

Tauzero  posted on  2008-04-09   14:14:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Intrade's current price of futures contracts, individual, to win the presidency. Payoff is $100, so the price is equivalent to percentage, except for market friction, so they don't always add up to 100.

So, basically Obees stock price is higher, right?

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   14:27:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Except it's easier to lose (or win) lots of money in futures.

...Both methods yielded similar results, which support the previous findings; that is, of all modern human samples, sub-Saharan Africans again exhibit the closest phenetic similarity to various African Plio-Pleistocene hominins...
Ancient teeth and modern human origins: An expanded comparison of African Plio-Pleistocene and recent world dental samples, Journal of Human Evolution Volume 45, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 113-144

Tauzero  posted on  2008-04-09   14:33:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Obama “the great unifier” (cough) has an unfavorability rating of 40% according to a new poll (surveyUSA - March 27/2008)

www.surveyusa.com/client/...da-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05

Sample group:
19% ... Northeast
23% ... Midwest
37% ... South
22% ... West

Does the Northeast and West make up only 41% of the voting population?

This telephone poll appears to feature questionably unrepresentative sampling.

nolu_chan  posted on  2008-04-09   14:42:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Except it's easier to lose (or win) lots of money in futures.

I think I'll stick to stratch-off tickets. ;)

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   15:03:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

I don't think this answers your concern, but here's what the link provided.

There doesn't seem to be an aggregate total by 'region', or more specific breakdown.

At the link, on the left, there is a link to their methodology:

Sponsor: KABC-TV Los Angeles

www.surveyusa.com/clien t/methodology2.aspx

The following statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls:

How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT, unless otherwise indicated on the individual poll report. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.

Definitions

For those survey results which include data crosstabbed by "generation" the definitions are:

Generation Birth Years Gen Y 1979 to present Gen X 1966 to 1978 Jones 1954 to 1965 Boomers 1942 to 1953 Mature 1941 and before

For those survey results which include a “Region” crosstab, the regions are defined here. www.surveyu sa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_080220.htm

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   15:12:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Does the South have 37% of the voting population? Does the Northeast and West make up only 41% of the voting population?

This telephone poll appears to feature questionably unrepresentative sampling.

I'm not so sure that previous vote models would accurately reflect the high energy of this particular contest. Tons of new voters, and as we learned with ROn Paul, many of the younger voters only use cell phones. So, it's hard to tell if these sort of people are included in the survey to begin with, and perhaps where the highest participation might be.

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   15:19:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡

ghostdogtxn  posted on  2008-04-09   15:25:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

The reason the media doesn't talk about this is because it doesn't mean anything in terms of differentiating the candidates.

I disagree with you there.

It tells a story, IMO.

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   15:57:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡

ghostdogtxn  posted on  2008-04-09   16:01:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Well, I agree it's a story worth looking at, but with McCain's unfavorables at 39, Obama at 40 and Hillary at higher than that, the differences between the candidates are negligible vis. unfavorability.

My take is that people hate them all equally!! YAY! It says, people are unhappy with this band of theives. That their political differences MUST be neglible as well. This was an overall %, so the people are grumpy. Anything could happen.

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   16:10:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Anything could happen.

Sure, but where's the arb?

...Both methods yielded similar results, which support the previous findings; that is, of all modern human samples, sub-Saharan Africans again exhibit the closest phenetic similarity to various African Plio-Pleistocene hominins...
Ancient teeth and modern human origins: An expanded comparison of African Plio-Pleistocene and recent world dental samples, Journal of Human Evolution Volume 45, Issue 2, August 2003, Pages 113-144

Tauzero  posted on  2008-04-09   17:31:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Sure, but where's the arb?

arb?

Don't you have it? I didn't see it.

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   17:40:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

I don't think this answers your concern, but here's what the link provided.

There doesn't seem to be an aggregate total by 'region', or more specific breakdown.

tinyurl.com/2td2hw

It is broken down by region within the table providing the stats you quoted.

TABLE 2 asks: "Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral or do you not have an impression?"

The right hand section of the table provides a breakdown of those polled by region, reflected as a percentage of the whole.

The bottom line reflects "composition of adults," NE 19%; MW 23%; S 37%; W 22%.

It appears too heavily weighted with a sample from the South to accurately reflect a National result.

The favorability/unfavorability by region is NE -3; MW -1; S -12; W +15.

Also relevant would be the time of day polling was conducted, affected by whether people are at home or at work. As you noted, whether cell phones were included also affects results.

I had read the methodology study and it contains many qualifying statements. There is no "margin of error" given for the poll, only for sampling error. As the poll noted, "There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter)."

The margin of error for the poll results (as opposed to sampling error) is unknown.

It may, or may not be accurate. It also reflects favorable ratings of Obama 38%, Clinton 35%, McCain 34%.

Regarding Hillary Clinton, the poll reflects 17% are neutral, 4% have no impression, and 1% is unsure. I find it questionable, at best, that a purported 22% of the people don't know where they stand on Hillary Clinton.

Regarding Dick Cheney, the poll reflects 16% are neutral, 12% have no impression, and 1% is unsure. Do 29% have neither a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dick Cheney?

Love 'em or hate 'em, Clinton and Cheney have been two of our more polarizing figures.

A poll that produces such results appears to be of questionable validity.

nolu_chan  posted on  2008-04-10   2:19:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Thanks Nolu..

Didn't you find it interesting that it was heavily weighted to the younger side of the voting pop?

Love 'em or hate 'em, Clinton and Cheney have been two of our more polarizing figures. Yep. I am not neutral on either of them! LOL!

I would much prefer to see a sheet tally with raw numbers, extended to percentages in every category... such as, 'declined to participate, not available'.

I want to see every question.

I'm sure many here have been polled before. I used to go along with the thing, thinking WOw, THEY CALLED ME! Then the some polling questions began to ask things not related to the purpose of the poll. Like they were mining for private info, not an opinion. That turned me off from participating at all for a long time. Then, I decided to 'play' again. I'd let them ask a couple of questons and then ask, now, who are you with? Well, we are a private company contracted to do this. Okay, but for who? Well, we call for a number of companies. Okay, then who is this information for? Well, we don't know, and aren't allowed to divulge who we call for. Okay, thanks, we're done here. But, why? You don't have to answer any question you don't want to, we're just doing our jobs. I understand, bye now.

I can see I've probably made the grouchy difficult do not call that lady list. That could explain low sampling in my category. Or could it be, there is an overall higher level of frustration in the boomer up groups that wont produce the story they want to tell?

Lot's of what ifs, but I'd love the raw data... and go from there.

"The truth that makes men free is for the most part the truth which men prefer not to hear." -- Herbert Sebastien Agar (1897-1980) Source: The Time for Greatness, 1942

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-10   10:12:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

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