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Title: NOT on MSM - Obama “the great unifier” has an unfavorability rating of 40%
Source: http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/?p=37
URL Source: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/Pol ... d3-fbda-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05
Published: Mar 30, 2008
Author: admin
Post Date: 2008-04-09 13:46:08 by Peppa
Keywords: Obama, Troops, Withdrawal
Views: 222
Comments: 17

Posted by admin March 30, 2008 This is a poll mainstream media (MSM) will never tell you about. Obama “the great unifier” (cough) has an unfavorability rating of 40% according to a new poll (surveyUSA - March 27/2008) Source:
www.surveyusa.com/client/...da-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05

Poster Comment:

Overall Unfavorable %

Clinton 42
McCain 39
Cheney 55
Bush 61
Spitzer 50
I wonder if there are other polls to compare this to?

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 8.

#6. To: Peppa (#0)

Obama “the great unifier” (cough) has an unfavorability rating of 40% according to a new poll (surveyUSA - March 27/2008)

www.surveyusa.com/client/...da-4580-8169-3a89e9f40a05

Sample group:
19% ... Northeast
23% ... Midwest
37% ... South
22% ... West

Does the Northeast and West make up only 41% of the voting population?

This telephone poll appears to feature questionably unrepresentative sampling.

nolu_chan  posted on  2008-04-09   14:42:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

I don't think this answers your concern, but here's what the link provided.

There doesn't seem to be an aggregate total by 'region', or more specific breakdown.

At the link, on the left, there is a link to their methodology:

Sponsor: KABC-TV Los Angeles

www.surveyusa.com/clien t/methodology2.aspx

The following statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls:

How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT, unless otherwise indicated on the individual poll report. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.

Definitions

For those survey results which include data crosstabbed by "generation" the definitions are:

Generation Birth Years Gen Y 1979 to present Gen X 1966 to 1978 Jones 1954 to 1965 Boomers 1942 to 1953 Mature 1941 and before

For those survey results which include a “Region” crosstab, the regions are defined here. www.surveyu sa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_080220.htm

Peppa  posted on  2008-04-09   15:12:00 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

#16. To: Peppa (#8)

I don't think this answers your concern, but here's what the link provided.

There doesn't seem to be an aggregate total by 'region', or more specific breakdown.

tinyurl.com/2td2hw

It is broken down by region within the table providing the stats you quoted.

TABLE 2 asks: "Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral or do you not have an impression?"

The right hand section of the table provides a breakdown of those polled by region, reflected as a percentage of the whole.

The bottom line reflects "composition of adults," NE 19%; MW 23%; S 37%; W 22%.

It appears too heavily weighted with a sample from the South to accurately reflect a National result.

The favorability/unfavorability by region is NE -3; MW -1; S -12; W +15.

Also relevant would be the time of day polling was conducted, affected by whether people are at home or at work. As you noted, whether cell phones were included also affects results.

I had read the methodology study and it contains many qualifying statements. There is no "margin of error" given for the poll, only for sampling error. As the poll noted, "There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter)."

The margin of error for the poll results (as opposed to sampling error) is unknown.

It may, or may not be accurate. It also reflects favorable ratings of Obama 38%, Clinton 35%, McCain 34%.

Regarding Hillary Clinton, the poll reflects 17% are neutral, 4% have no impression, and 1% is unsure. I find it questionable, at best, that a purported 22% of the people don't know where they stand on Hillary Clinton.

Regarding Dick Cheney, the poll reflects 16% are neutral, 12% have no impression, and 1% is unsure. Do 29% have neither a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dick Cheney?

Love 'em or hate 'em, Clinton and Cheney have been two of our more polarizing figures.

A poll that produces such results appears to be of questionable validity.

nolu_chan  posted on  2008-04-10 02:19:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

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