Omigod! Here come the superdelegates! The Washington Post's Paul Kane has done the math and reached the conclusion that the Democratic presidential race will be decided by superdelegates--those 800 or so party officials and officeholders who are automatically awarded delegate status and who can vote any which way they please at the convention. Kane explains:
There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 52 percent of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at 832 and 821 delegates a piece, according to the AP.
That means there are now only about 1,600 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
So, do the math. If they both have 820 plus pledged delegates so far, they'll need to win roughly 1,200 -- 75 percent -- of the remaining 1,600 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
In other words: Ain't gonna happen...And then the super delegates decide this thing.
Does this mean the contest will be settled in some smoke-free backroom by machine hacks who don't give a fig about the Democratic vox populi?
Not necessarily. Kane's arithmetic is spot-on. But with superdelegates comprising about 20 percent of the entire voting bloc, they essentially have to play a part in any close race. The question is how will they break. At the end of the primary season, one candidate will have more non-superdelegates than the other. If that contender also ends up with a majority of superdelegates, all will be well. The people's choice wins. It won't matter that he or she needed superdelegates to reach the magic number.
But if the second-place finisher picks up enough of a majority of the superdelegates to leap over the leader, then there will be quite a fuss. In that case, non-elected delegates will be deciding the race against the will of the majority (however slight it might be) of Democratic voters.
At this stage, there's no telling what all those superdelegates will do. Fewer than half have committed--and, as of a few days ago, the campaigns were saying that Clinton had about a 70-delegate edge among this band. But these superdelegates can change their minds up until the vote is called at the convention.
As for the non-declared SDs, will they want to see the party elite anoint the second-place candidate and create a massive firestorm that will divide the party? And remember the Democratic establishment is not the same thing as the Clinton establishment. Not all of these influential Democrats are Clintonites. Not all believe that Clinton would be the best candidate for the party in November. She has the lead in superdelegates at the moment, but Obama can be competitive in this contest.
So place a hold on conspiracy theorizing or super-delegate hysteria for the time being. After all the primary votes are counted, the spotlight will shine brightly on these people. If they want to pull a backroom stunt, they will have to do so in public view.
There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 52 percent of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at 832 and 821 delegates a piece, according to the AP. ...
So, do the math. If they both have 820 plus pledged delegates so far, they'll need to win roughly 1,200 -- 75 percent -- of the remaining 1,600 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
832 TO 821??? This misinformed writer is confusing the results of Super Tuesday with the overall results.
Obama claims delegate lead By: Mike Allen February 6, 2008 11:09 AM EST
In a surprise twist after a chaotic Super Tuesday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) passed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in network tallies of the number of delegates the candidates racked up last night.
The Obama camp now projects topping Clinton by 13 delegates, 847 to 834.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.
Dozens of Jewish Super-Delegates May Hold Key to Democratic Race Campaign Marks a Communal Coming of Age in Party Politics By Jennifer Siegel Thu. Mar 20, 2008
According to a new survey conducted by the Forward, a disproportionately large share of the Democratic party’s super-delegates are Jewish. Many of them have declared their support for Hillary Clinton, accounting for more than 15% of her current backers.
Take a looksee at the graph at the link... pretty interesting.. fyi.
I reviewed that earlier when you discussed it with robnoel. The graph shows Clinton 36, Obama 12, and Undeclared 26.
Even if Clinton received all 26 undeclared, and claimed the 12 declared for Obama, she would still be trailing by about 100 delegates. I think this Jewish publication is exaggerating the effect of its constituent superdelegates. There are simply not enough of them not already declared for Clinton to justify the headline, "Dozens of Jewish Super-Delegates May Hold Key to Democratic Race." Two or three dozen do not hold the key to anything when when another eight dozen are needed and it is very hard to see where they are going to come from.
24 of the 74 total, more than a third, come from just two states, NY and CA.
Perhaps they can swing influence behind the scenes, but just their own votes ain't gonna git 'er done.
Take a looksee at the graph at the link... pretty interesting.. fyi. I reviewed that earlier when you discussed it with robnoel. The graph shows Clinton 36, Obama 12, and Undeclared 26.
Even if Clinton received all 26 undeclared, and claimed the 12 declared for Obama, she would still be trailing by about 100 delegates. I think this Jewish publication is exaggerating the effect of its constituent superdelegates. There are simply not enough of them not already declared for Clinton to justify the headline, "Dozens of Jewish Super-Delegates May Hold Key to Democratic Race." Two or three dozen do not hold the key to anything when when another eight dozen are needed and it is very hard to see where they are going to come from.
24 of the 74 total, more than a third, come from just two states, NY and CA.
Perhaps they can swing influence behind the scenes, but just their own votes ain't gonna git 'er done.
I just found it interesting in that someone was looking at her delegates that way. I'm going to dig around and read about the delegates to see if that's common. I still just *feel* that none are bound, period... I think it was Howard Dean or someone that said, or warned them, that they could be in legal trouble if they committed and then changed their vote.. don't know if that's true. This SuperD business is all new to me.