Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47% Obama 44%
Friday, April 18, 2008
The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.
Obama’s support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton’s at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.
Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.
Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if “something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.” If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton’s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama’s edge among pledged delegates.
The survey also found that just 21% believe it’s a good idea for the Democrats to have Superdelegates. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree.
In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 70% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 71%. Those figures are down slightly for both candidates. An Associated Press video report suggests that Pennsylvania voters are tiring of the campaign. Primary voters see little ideological difference between the candidates—48% see Obama as politically moderate while 49% say the same about Clinton. Nationally, among all voters, a majority see both Democratic candidates as politically liberal.
Forty-eight percent (48%) say they have closely followed news stories about the Wednesday night debate. Another 35% say they have followed that news Somewhat Closely. Twelve percent (12%) say that something in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they will vote.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) of the Primary Voters say they are at least Somewhat Likely to vote for Clinton against John McCain in November. Seventy-three percent (73%) are Somewhat or Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain.
Forty-nine percent (49%) say that, if Obama is nominated, he is Very Likely to be elected President. Another 27% say he is Somewhat Likely to win in November.
Clinton’s numbers are virtually identical—50% say she would be Very Likely to win the White House and 29% say she would be Somewhat Likely to do so.
A separate survey found that both Democrats lead McCain in Pennsylvania. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.
Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton % Obama %). Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.