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Title: (Hillary) TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE
Source:
NY Post
URL Source: http://www.nypost.com/seven/0423200 ... oo_little__too_late_107751.htm
Published: Apr 23, 2008
Author: Dick Morris
Post Date: 2008-04-23 11:53:36 by Jethro Tull
Keywords: None
Views: 938
Comments: 45
April 23, 2008 -- =" " href="/news/p/clinton_hillary/clinton_hillary.htm">Hillary Clinton Problem is, it doesn't mean anything. Because of the Democratic Party's arcane proportional-representation rules, her win stands to give her a net gain of 10 to 15 delegates when all is counted. That means that Barack Obama will fall from a lead of 161 in elected delegates to about 145 or so. Big deal. The primaries coming up in the next two weeks - Indiana and North Carolina - are likely to give Obama back a goodly portion of those delegates. By the time all the primaries have been held, after June 3, there is no doubt that Obama will lead by more than 100 elected delegates, and likely 150. From there, it will be an easy route to the nomination. The Democratic superdelegates aren't about to risk a massive and sanguinary civil war by taking the nomination away from the candidate who won more elected delegates. If they ever tried it, we'd see a repeat of the demonstrations that smashed the 1968 Chicago convention and ruined Hubert Humphrey's chances of victory. Clinton won Pennsylvania for two key reasons: Only Democrats could vote in the primary, and the Keystone State electorate is dominated by the elderly, who are staunchly for Clinton. Despite her claims of electability, Hillary has never done well among independent voters. And Obama usually loses the Democrats. Pennsylvania's closed-primary rules gave her a key advantage. Older voters are flocking to Clinton as fears mount of what Obama might do as president mount. But those under 45 - less focused, perhaps, on race - are moving toward Obama. Here, that split helped her. Of the 50 states, only Florida has a higher over-65 proportion of its population. But there's a key difference: Florida's elderly moved there - Pennsylvania's are the folks that are left after the young people moved away. Pennsylvania Democrats, in other words, suffer from future shock. They welcome old, established ways and embrace dynasties happily because they are so familiar. (Look at the Bob Caseys - dad was governor, the son is senator.) But don't expect the open primaries of Indiana and North Carolina to behave like Pennsylvania's geriatrics. Both states are younger, especially North Carolina, and independents can vote in each primary. (North Carolina is where a lot of the young people who fled Pennsylvania winters and job losses ended up). Over the next two weeks, we'll be treated to much hoopla about how the Democratic race is once again up for grabs. Then, on May 5, Hillary's hopes will be dashed once more. And then? After the votes are counted in all the primaries, look for the Gang of Four - Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and John Edwards - to join together and issue a challenge to the superdelegates: Make up your minds. Together, they'll probably demand that these appointed delegates commit to one candidate or the other by mid June. And since the primaries will have lifted Obama over 1,900 delegates (elected and super), he'll only need about 100 more, out of about 300 uncommitted superdelegates. Their hands forced, enough superdelegates will go to Obama to put him over the top - he'll be the candidate. That's all, folks.
Poster Comment: This is an accurate take on the D selection process. The fun will be how the femiNazis & other groups supporting Hillary will take the Obama selection. He can't win a national selection, and they know it (and have openly said it). How delightful it is to watch open civil war within the Democrat party.
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE
HILLARY'S PENNSYLVANIA WIN
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 32.
#21. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
The bitch is dead meat, but because of the aroma that normally surrounds her she can't even recognize it.
Say what you will, but she's a fighter. She is going to leave Mr. O a bloody heap come Denver. When was the last big primary he won anyway?
3/4: Hillary won 55.4% of the vote in OH. 4/22: Hillary won 54.67% in PA. She LOST ALL of the other states since 2/5. The CLOSEST she came was -17.38% in WI. She lost 10 states by over 20%. OBAMA VICTORIES 03/11: MS [60.80% - 37.00%] +23.80% 02/19: WI [58.13% - 40.75%] +17.38% 02/10: ME [59.45% - 39.95%] 19.50% 02/12: DC [75.20 - 24.02] +51.18
So his last win was 6 weeks ago in MS?
Did anybody win a primary during the six weeks there were no primaries? After PA, Hillary is still hopelessly behind in delegates after the trashings she received by 20+ point margins. Hillary's imaginary string of decisive victories has left her hopelessly behind. Maybe she will get Bill to break out his bible and pray for her.
Yet when Florida and Michigan vote totals are included she is ahead in popular vote. Obama doesn't want to include these states for a very good reason, he got his butt kicked in both of them.
Obama was not on the ballot in MI. For the most part in Michigan, Democrats stayed home, knowing no delegates were at stake. The GOP vote more than doubled the Dem vote, in stark contrast to the other, real primary contests. Clinton ....... 328,151 - 87.73% ............... 356,075 ----- Romney ........ 337,847 - 39.75% ............... 849,623 The party decreed FL would not count and the candidates agreed to not campaign there. Hillary agreed completely until she found the only way she could steal a win is by changing the rules. Following the rules the Dems created, and Hillary agreed to follow, she is hopelessly behind in delegates. The nominee will be selected by delegates, not popular vote. Hillary trails in popular vote unless they count MI which is a farce.
#34. To: nolu_chan (#32)
So? He still would have gotten trounced there.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestTheir hands forced, enough superdelegates will go to Obama to put him over the top - he'll be the candidate.
#22. To: iconoclast (#21)
#25. To: Jethro Tull, iconoclast (#22)
When was the last big primary he won anyway?
3/4: Hillary won 58.61% in RI.
3/4: Hillary won 50.58% in TX. Obama won the most delegates.
03/08: WY [61.39% - 37.81%] +23.58%
03/04: VT [59.44% - 38.64%] +20.80%
02/19: HI [75.74% - 23.61%] +52.13%
02/12: VA [63.60% - 35.44%] +28.16%
02/12: MD [59.73% - 36.70%] 23.03%
02/09: WA [64.85% - 29.26%] +39.59
02/09: LA [57.39% - 35.63%] +21.76
02/09: NE [67.56 - 32.18%] +35.38
#26. To: nolu_chan (#25)
#28. To: Jethro Tull (#26)
So his last win was 6 weeks ago in MS?
#29. To: nolu_chan (#28)
After PA, Hillary is still hopelessly behind in delegates after the trashings she received by 20+ point margins.
State Date Obama Clinton Spread Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** 14,993,348 47.4% 15,116,076 47.8% Clinton +122,728 +0.4%
#32. To: RickyJ (#29)
Yet when Florida and Michigan vote totals are included she is ahead in popular vote. Obama doesn't want to include these states for a very good reason, he got his butt kicked in both of them.
Kucinich ....... 21,708 - 05.80%
Dodd ............ 3,853 - 01.03%
Gravel .......... 2,363 - 00.63%
McCain ........ 257,521 - 30.30%
Huckabee ...... 139,699 - 16.44%
Paul ........... 54,434 - 06.40%
Thompson ....... 32,135 - 03.78%
Giuliani ....... 24,706 - 02.91%
Hunter .......... 2,823 - 00.33%
Tancredo .......... 458 - 00.05%
Replies to Comment # 32. Obama was not on the ballot in MI.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 32.