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Title: Why the two key spins “can’t close the deal” and “Only the popular vote” are breathtakingly stupid
Source:
DU Blog
URL Source: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/63
Published: Apr 23, 2008
Author: grantcart
Post Date: 2008-04-23 19:32:10 by nolu_chan
Keywords: None
Views: 173
Comments: 11
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/63 Why the two key spins “can’t close the deal” and “Only the popular vote” are breathtakingly stupid Posted by grantcart in General Discussion: Primaries (DU) CURSING YOUR HIGH SCHOOL GUIDANCE COUNSELOR. Listening to the talking heads repeat these two idiotic spin memes over and over makes you wonder why your guidance counselor didn’t tell you to become a talking head and make millions making more common sense than these idiots who download their emails from the Clinton campaign and then say, “well the Clinton campaign will argue”. I know that you all know why they are stupid but for the record (and by the way I hate the pretentiousness of people who say ‘by the record’) and for convenient future cutting and pasting for future idiotic threads that try and repeat these palpable idiot spins the following: HE CANNOT CLOSE THE DEAL 1) ‘He cannot close the deal’ or ‘he cannot shut the gate’ or any other stupid analogy that indicates the closing of a container or other mechanical device: a) Reason One: It’s a near mathematical impossibility. He would have to get 71% of the delegates/ It would be enough to simply say in a competitive two person race where proportional distribution of delegates in a race where elected delegates constitute only 80% of the total it is virtually impossible to win the nomination with just pledged delegates, let alone when only 80% of the pledged delegates have been chosen. To have won enough delegates at this point in time Obama would have had to win 71% of the delegates. To get 71% of the delegates you would have to consistently get 75% of the vote. b) Reason Two: It clearly is a contradiction and therefore and argument against itself. On the one hand the Clinton campaign is arguing that they should be elected because they are the tough campaign professionals that can win the general election. When you then turn around and say “why can’t he close the door?” the question automatically undermines the first premise. If you are saying that he is weak because he can’t beat Hillary you are also saying that Hillary is an even weaker campaigner than he is. If she is the greatest campaigner with the greatest campaign juggernaut then of course its going to take time – but you have indeed beat the best campaigner –except Obama was better. The ‘why can’t he close the door?’ meme only makes sense if you are also conceding that Hillary is a weak and ineffectual candidate. SHE WILL HAVE THE POPULAR VOTE – EVENTUALLY – WE THINK 2) “She will have the popular vote” a) She doesn’t have the popular vote b) We don’t have a system of popular vote. We have a mixed system c) It is dependent on the lie that somehow we can count either Michigan or Florida It also requires the completely intellectually dishonest step of including the uncontested primaries of Florida and Michigan. If uncontested primaries are an accurate representation of popular will then why do we even bother with campaigns? d) But this is not the main reason it is an inane argument. The main reason is that it simply is not true – its based on a flawed premise that those that have voted for Clinton in the primary at that point in time still in fact support her. It is premised on the idea that Clinton has retained the support that voted for her. Read today’s New York Times. Does anybody believe that she would have gotten the endorsement after that excoriating criticism? Does anybody believe that she would have gotten the support of the following: - the African American vote she got on Super Tuesday if they knew what was going to happen after South Carolina or her cheap comments on Rev. Wright? If the vote was held today nationally she would have fewer popular votes not more. The fact is that before she campaigns in a particular place she panders to it and afterwards it is simply another candidate to be thrown under the bus. The fact is that she is making the case for the popular vote when a) she doesn’t have it and b) when her popularity is tanking nationwide.
Wed Apr 23rd 2008, 11:40 AM
Why the two key spins “He can’t close the deal” and “She will have the popular vote” are breathtakingly stupid
Of course this is a particularly stupid device to argue when in fact you do not even have the popular vote.
It also disregards the 12 states who decide not by popular vote but by state convention (no delegates are selected by caucus – the estimates of delegates based on caucus resorts are just that wild estimates – in the case of Iowa where Obama originally appeared to have 38% of the caucus delegates but will end up with 70% of the delegates there is no number of popular votes that can be added that will reflect the outcome of the state conventions).
- the same percent of vote in California once she trashed ‘closed door meetings’ and slimed Californians as being elitist?
- the activist branch of the party after she slammed MoveOn.Org?
- the same level of support after it became known that she wants to extend the threat of thermonuclear war?
- the same level of support when it became clear that her campaign and husband are working the other side of the street on NAFTA?
- the same level of support after her penchant for resume embellishment became exposed?
- the same level of support when people like the NYT had a chance to evaluate her negative campaign tactics.
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#1. To: nolu_chan (#0)
Sorry, but I'll have to offset that DU stuff with Limbaugh stuff.
I have to hand it to the Repukes. They ARE masters of creating chaos. Look what they did to Iraq. It's like they used to say about our military before it was enlisted to try (not successfully) to nation-build. It's there to "break things and kill people." That pretty well sums up the last seven years of Chimp/GOPer rule over America as well.
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
Mr. Chan...just how pissed off are the DUers gonna be when the Hildabeast steals this nomination from Barry Hussein via the unscrupulous bastardization of the superdelegate system? Oughtta be a hoot...MUD
Devolve Power Outta the Federal Leviathan and Back to the States, Hold accountable those who swore an oath. That should clear some minds.
"The Constitution is a written instrument. As such it's meaning does not alter. That which it meant when adopted, it means now." -- United States Supreme Court Source: South Carolina vs. United States (1905)
It will be a spectacular hoot if it happens, but the odds are Slim, Mudboy.
How sweet it is !!!
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)
I agree, n_c, I don't think the Democrats are that stooopid...Obama has earned the nomination and it would take a lotta hubris for the superdelegates to reject the voters' wishes...MUD
Devolve Power Outta the Federal Leviathan and Back to the States, Well, they are fairly stupid. Considering the political atmosphere, they probably could have nominated any centrist/moderate. By neither selecting nor quickly rejecting Hillary, her polarizing effect has been allowed to affect the Dem party. Whenever the Dems nominate someone far to the left of the American people, they have problems, even in a time of GOP struggles. With a fractured party, the problems will be magnified. For the general campaign, we will hear about everything as the Bush/McCain policy. The Dems will join them at the hip, and try to run against W. If successful, a yellow dog might be able to win.
Bush and McCain ain't exactly attached at the hip vis a vis policy. Yeah, on Iraq they are the same, but that's become less of an issue. But on spending, McCain is actually spouting the words of a fiscal conservative!! Perhaps he's just blowing smoke, but I like what I hear...MUD
Devolve Power Outta the Federal Leviathan and Back to the States, W Bush campaigned on conservative spending and a humble foreign policy, too. I suppose you bought that, too?
Nope, he most certainly did not!! Looking back, I think that was assumed (get a GOP POTUS with a GOP Congress, spending will be scaled back), but he never really made a big point of it. Fiscal Conservatism has got to be at the forefront of any successful Presidency for 2009-2012, VZ...we need to have our nominees making a bigger deal out of the issue. It impacts so much else that is being discussed. Regards...MUD
Devolve Power Outta the Federal Leviathan and Back to the States,
#2. To: Jethro Tull (#1)
#3. To: nolu_chan (#0)
Localities, and Individuals as Prescribed in the U.S. Constitution!!
#4. To: Sam Houston (#2)
(Edited)
#5. To: Mudboy Slim (#3)
Mr. Chan...just how pissed off are the DUers gonna be when the Hildabeast steals this nomination from Barry Hussein via the unscrupulous bastardization of the superdelegate system?
#6. To: nolu_chan (#5)
(Edited)
but the odds are Slim, Mudboy.
#7. To: nolu_chan (#5)
"the odds are Slim"
Localities, and Individuals as Prescribed in the U.S. Constitution!!
#8. To: Mudboy Slim (#7)
I agree, n_c, I don't think the Democrats are that stooopid...
#9. To: nolu_chan (#8)
"For the general campaign, we will hear about everything as the Bush/McCain policy."
Localities, and Individuals as Prescribed in the U.S. Constitution!!
#10. To: Mudboy Slim (#9)
But on spending, McCain is actually spouting the words of a fiscal conservative!! Perhaps he's just blowing smoke, but I like what I hear...MUD
#11. To: Vitamin Z (#10)
"W Bush campaigned on conservative spending..."
Localities, and Individuals as Prescribed in the U.S. Constitution!!
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