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Neocon Nuttery
See other Neocon Nuttery Articles

Title: Why McCain's big idea is a bad idea ("LEAGUE OF DEMOCRACIES")
Source: Financial Times
URL Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97c4dfde-1b04-11dd-aa67-0000779fd2ac.html
Published: May 6, 2008
Author: Gideon Rachman
Post Date: 2008-05-08 14:00:00 by aristeides
Keywords: None
Views: 301
Comments: 6

Why McCain's big idea is a bad idea

By Gideon Rachman

Published: May 6 2008 03:00 | Last updated: May 6 2008 03:00

American presidents are meant to have big ideas about the world: a "new frontier", an "alliance for progress", a "war on terror". Unfortunately for the Democratic party the big idea that most animates their two would-be presidents - Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton - seems to be mutually assured destruction.

That has left the field open to Senator John McCain. The Republican is currently the only presidential candidate to champion a striking new idea about America's role in the world. The world should pay attention, since the chances of Mr McCain winning the presidency are going up by the day.

Mr McCain's big idea is for the formation of a "league of democracies" with America at its heart. In a recent speech in Los Angeles, he outlined a plan to "harness the vast power of more than 100 democracies". This was not just a vague notion tossed out to fill a speech. Mr McCain has been banging on about the league of democracies - in public and in private - for more than a year. In another speech at the Hoover Institution last year, Mr McCain gave some concrete examples of what such a league might do. Essentially, it seems to be a means to get around the United Nations.

The league could sponsor intervention in Darfur or "bring concerted pressure to bear on tyrants in Burma or Zimbabwe, with or without Moscow and Beijing's approval". Alternatively, "it could unite to impose sanctions on Iran". He promised that he would call a summit of democracies in his first year in the White House - and likened the formation of the new democratic league to the foundation of Nato.

Mr McCain's support for a league of democracies means that it has quickly been labelled a rightwing idea. But variants of the idea have also attracted support from liberals. The Princeton Project on National Security - supported by many liberal academics - has promoted the idea of a "concert of democracies". Ivo Daalder, an adviser to Mr Obama, has also pushed the idea.

But the leading Democratic candidates have stayed studiously neutral. By contrast, Mr McCain has made the idea his own.

If he ever makes it to the White House, he may come to regret this. For while the idea of a league of democracies has some attractions, it also has some obvious dangers.

The first problem is that it would exacerbate tensions with Russia and China. Robert Kagan, an adviser to Mr McCain, argues that those tensions already exist. Indeed Russia and China sometimes act as the de facto heads of a league of autocracies - protecting bad governments such as Iran and Zimbabwe at the UN. So, Mr Kagan thinks, it would be a good idea for the world's democrats to promote their values in a more organised and determined fashion.

The trouble with this idea is that it risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. America's relationships with China and Russia are complicated and ambiguous - with elements of both competition and co-operation. But the formation of a league of democracies would harden antagonisms and might even be seen as the launching of a new cold war.

Mr McCain clearly wants to take a more confrontational stance towards Russia and China. He advocates chucking Russia out of the Group of Eight leading industrial nations - and wants to invite India and Brazil to join, while pointedly excluding China.

But a President McCain would swiftly find that he needed Russian and Chinese co-operation to achieve other goals. He has promised to negotiate a new treaty on climate change that includes China. Any effort to strengthen nuclear non-proliferation regimes will need Russian help. The US also has important alliances with autocratic governments in the Middle East from Saudi Arabia to Egypt.

Antagonising the Saudis - and even the Chinese and the Russians - might be a price worth paying for the achievement of other objectives. Even the UN's staunchest supporters know that it often fails in its self-proclaimed "responsibility to protect" oppressed peoples. The formation of a league of democracies might also act as a spur for democratic reforms in some of America's autocratic allies.

The biggest problem with Mr McCain's "big idea" does not lie with the autocrats - it lies with the democracies themselves. Almost all of America's closest democratic allies have deep reservations about a league of democracies. The Europeans are committed to the UN and would be loath to join an alliance that undermined it. They are also suspicious of America's democratic evangelism. Talk to senior French and British policymakers and you will find a rare unanimity on the league of democracies. A French diplomat calls it a "really bad idea". A British diplomat scoffs: "How are you going to decide the membership? Is it going to be like a football league, where you are going to have promotion and relegation at the end of the season?"

America's democratic allies in Asia - wary of antagonising China - are unlikely to be any more receptive. Kurt Campbell, a Democrat who runs the Center for a New American Security in Washington, reckons that Japan might be the only Asian power to join Mr McCain's new league.

So if a newly elected President McCain does indeed call a summit of the world's democracies, it would be quite a peculiar party. Many of the potential guests might plead that they are otherwise engaged - the diplomatic equivalent of "we cannot get a babysitter that night". And those democracies that did accept the invitation might find themselves part of a new coalition of the unwilling.

gideon.rachman@ft.com

*************************************************************************

A lot of countries might not like the idea, but I bet Israel -- and the neocons -- would love it.

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#1. To: aristeides (#0)

Alas, the name League of Extraordinary Gentlemen is already taken.

Jazmyn Singleton, a black Duke senior agrees. After living in a predominantly white dorm freshman year, she lives with five African-American women in an all-black dormitory. “Both communities tend to be very judgmental,” says Ms. Singleton, ruefully. “There is pressure to be black. The black community can be harsh. People will say there are 600 blacks on campus but only two-thirds are ‘black’ because you can’t count blacks who hang out with white people.”

Tauzero  posted on  2008-05-08   14:06:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: aristeides (#0)

McCainiac has gone 'round the bend.

Lod  posted on  2008-05-08   14:09:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: aristeides (#0) (Edited)

McCain's "league of Democracies" has PNAC written all over it.

The first problem is that it would exacerbate tensions with Russia and China. Robert Kagan, an adviser to Mr McCain, argues that those tensions already exist. Indeed Russia and China sometimes act as the de facto heads of a league of autocracies - protecting bad governments such as Iran and Zimbabwe at the UN. So, Mr Kagan thinks, it would be a good idea for the world's democrats to promote their values in a more organised and determined fashion.

Israel is one of the backers of Mugabe's government in Zimbabwe, but don't wait for Kagan to say a word about it.

Rupert_Pupkin  posted on  2008-05-08   14:13:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Rupert_Pupkin (#3)

Even a sane Jew like Rachman recognizes the truth of what you say.

To reason, indeed, he was not in the habit of attending. His mode of arguing, if it is to be so called, was one not uncommon among dull and stubborn persons, who are accustomed to be surrounded by their inferiors. He asserted a proposition; and, as often as wiser people ventured respectfully to show that it was erroneous, he asserted it again, in exactly the same words, and conceived that, by doing so, he at once disposed of all objections. - Macaulay, "History of England," Vol. 1, Chapter 6, on James II.

aristeides  posted on  2008-05-08   14:17:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: aristeides (#0) (Edited)

American presidents are meant to have big ideas about the world: a "new frontier", an "alliance for progress", a "war on terror".

Strange, I thought they were meant to look out for the best interests of America and her people; not engage in nation building nonsense.

I guess we're all compassionate imperialists now.

"The more I see of life, the less I fear death." - Me.

"If violence solved nothing, then weapons technology would have never advanced past crude clubs and rocks." - Me.

Pissed Off Janitor  posted on  2008-05-08   14:36:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: aristeides (#0)

A lot of countries might not like the idea …

As an airspace tech-rep I’ve traveled all over the world. Two things I heard constantly in after-hour, after eight “martuunis” conversations:

“When are you people (USA) going to learn to mind your own goddamned business” and “if democracy is so great, why don’t you try it at home?”

The customer is always right and in this case he IS right!

karelian  posted on  2008-05-08   19:24:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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