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Title: Susan Estrich: Bad News for Obama? (Uh Oh, Susan does a Geraldine?)
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URL Source: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,355756,00.html
Published: May 17, 2008
Author: Susan Estrich
Post Date: 2008-05-17 18:03:48 by christine
Keywords: None
Views: 387
Comments: 20
LOS ANGELES — There is good news and bad news for Democrats in the wake of Tuesday’s voting in West Virginia and Mississippi. The good news is that Democrats are now three-for-three in the contests for open House seats, adding Mississippi to the list where a Democrat, albeit one running as pro-life and pro-gun, defeated his Republican opponent in a traditionally Republican, conservative district. The bad news is that Barack Obama, who has been crowned by the media as the "presumptive nominee" of the Democratic Party, got trounced in a state that every Democrat to be elected president in recent generations has carried on his way to the White House. Is the Republican "brand" in trouble? Absolutely. Has the Republican base shrunk? Yes. Is any association with the GOP/George Bush/the last eight years enough to send people to a place they haven’t been recently, which is to say, the Democratic column? Clearly. Are the Democrats in a position to score major victories in the House and Senate elections come this fall? No question. Could Democrats end up with a commanding majority in both Houses? I’d be willing to bet on that. Has Obama closed the deal with the voters he will need to carry the critical blue-leaning states in the fall, voters who are white, working-class and key to a Democratic victory in the presidential contest? Clearly not. There are, certainly, some who will argue that Hillary Clinton is hurting Obama by beating him, that -- ironically -- the better she does, the more she hurts Obama by staying in the race and, potentially, hurts herself by hurting him. Usually, of course, it’s when you’re losing that people demand you drop out. In Hillary’s case, it’s her winning that can be seen as the problem that demands a solution. I don’t buy that. So long as Hillary keeps her focus on McCain, as she has done in recent speeches, and avoids giving McCain ammunition to use against Obama, she’s not affirmatively hurting Obama. All she’s doing is making clear the vulnerability that is his challenge, his problem, not hers. Obama has a problem with one of the core groups in the Democratic base. If he has won this nomination, he has won it without them, despite them. The problem is he can’t win the White House that way. You can talk until you’re blue in the face about the new voters Obama has brought to the process, about the enthusiasm among students and his appeal to independents, but at the end of the day, if you’re a Democrat, you don’t win the White House without winning the votes of white, working-class voters in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio and New Jersey and, yes, West Virginia. And you can call these people every name in the book, starting with racist, as some Obama supporters are prone to do, but questioning people’s motives generally is not a very effective approach to addressing their doubts or bringing them into the fold. Insults do not turn skeptics into supporters. There are a couple of questions every pollster always asks and looks at in predicting election results. One is the right track/wrong track issue: On that question, with 80 percent of the country answering the wrong track, with an overwhelming majority disapproving of George Bush, Democrats are in better shape than they have been at any time in recent memory. But the other is whether they think the candidate understands the problems of "people like them." My guess is, given the polls I’ve seen and the results we’ve all seen, that is where Obama runs into problems with white, working-class voters. They aren’t sure that the Illinois senator understands them, understands their lives and appreciates their values and concerns. And that’s not necessarily, or even primarily, an issue of race: It’s about values, philosophy, ideology and experience. It’s about whether he’s too liberal, too elitist, too much the candidate of the well-off and the well-educated, of college students and their professors, of higher taxes and more help for the poor at the expense of working Americans. Is he tough enough? Is he experienced enough? Does he understand both the pride and the fears of people who are getting by, but barely, who can’t afford to pay more in taxes, who are proud to be Americans, and wonder if he is? In the short run, Obama’s challenge is to convince superdelegates to come out for him in sufficient numbers to give him the statistical majority he needs to claim the Democratic nomination. There is every reason to expect that he can do that, if only because the math is getting more and more difficult for Clinton. But his real challenge is not to convince the "supers" but the regulars that he, indeed, is one of them, that what makes them want to vote for Democrats for House and Senate should convince them to vote for him as well. Whatever role race plays in their concerns about him, it will do him no good to focus on it in addressing those concerns. It is only by respecting these voters, not questioning their fairmindedness, that Obama will win the support from them that he desperately needs.
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#1. To: christine (#0)
A Clinton hack disses Obama? No surprise there. Just more proof that Obama is the man! ;^)
Check out my blog, America, the Bushieful.
Susan! have a couple more cocktails, on me.
White, working-class voters are not supposed to be reliant on government programs, so why would they ever vote Democrat to start with? This should embarrass them that they actually voted for Hillary Clinton as a way of stating their vehement opposition to a Halfrican American even daring to run for the office.
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
The only, slim, hope (besides Ron Paul) of stopping this all war, all the time mentality, policy, and imperative. imo
Um, to separate piratical corporate thieves, neocon warmongers, subversive spooks and police state thugs (the GOP's now-most-favored "constitutency") from power?
Check out my blog, America, the Bushieful.
Yeah..... 29% of the white vote in PA 34% in Indiana 20% in WV Same % expected in KY Hillary has an argument to the Supers.
You mean they no longer believe Rush? Say it ain't so!
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
How Obama should have handled the race issue. He should have said that affirmative action has been unfair to the white working class and that he will change things when he is elected. Currently, the children of wealthy blacks whose parents went to Harvard and Princeton will no longer be given preference over poor whites whose parents never went to college. Currently, the Jewish population gets 35% of all seats at Harvard, Yale and other Ivy League schools. I believe in the Holocaust so I accept the Jewish leaders who say there are only 5.2 million Jews in America. That is less than 2% of our population yet whites with straight A averages are denied entrance to the the University of Michigan so the taxpayers of that state can give scholarships to almost 600 Israelis whose parents never paid American taxes. Vote for me and I will set the Jewish quota at every college in America at 5.2%. I think that is fair because Jews are 3 times smarter than everyone else so it would be unkind to limit them to 2% of the admissions. By opening up colleges to the white working class we will change America and make it truly diverse. And henceforth scholarshps will be color blind. We will no longer give scholarships to the academically challenged to be financed by raising the tuition on poor and middle class whites.
The Truth of 911 Shall Set You Free From The Lie
I think the supers will do whatever the elite want them to do. I think Obama has it. He may even win in November. Obama will be very easy to control with his very checkered past.
God is always good!
You have a way with words.
I agree, the Supers HAVE to give the nod to Obama, but not b/c he has the most national appeal. I think Hillary beats McKooK easily. To snatch the nod from a black man now would risk a fracture deep and wide.
Bravo! He should also demand immediately that the D controlled congress defund the war. If he did that tomorrow, He'd win by 70-30.
This is very true and the Obama supporters as well as the campaign are turning voters off to Obama by playing the "Vote Obama or you're a racist" card at every turn.
McCain/Obama '08 -- Because the next step is Socialism rather than Freedom.
And henceforth scholarshps will be color blind. We will no longer give scholarships to the academically challenged to be financed by raising the tuition on poor and middle class whites. bravo
Um, to separate piratical corporate thieves, neocon warmongers, subversive spooks and police state thugs (the GOP's now-most-favored "constitutency") from power? You're either a party hack, naive, or just plain stupid. Which is it?
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition "Corporation: An entity created for the legal protection of its human parasites, whose sole purpose is profit and self-perpetuation." © IndieTx The controlled press would suddenly turn on him.
excellent point.
This is just a variant of the old liberal trick of getting people to accept their policies as a means of proving negatives about themselves, such as: "I am NOT a racist." "I am NOT a sexist." "I am NOT a jingoist." "I am NOT a nativist." "I am NOT backward and want to keep buggywhip makers in business." "I am NOT a prude." "I am NOT a Puritan." "I am NOT a materialist." This tactic works so well, the liberals made it part of America's strategic direction with the PC Movement. This is a combination of legitimizing the use of the Ad Hominem in debate along with a sneaky way of doing what liberals claim they do not like: Imposing morality and religion.
well said. this election with its half black candidate has really highlighted the predominance of political correctness for me.
It's not liberals who scream "anti-Semitism" at any criticism of Israel. It's the neocons. I've long ago gotten to the point where I just respond "whatever" to being called an "anti-Semite." People ought to do that whenever called any of the above names as well.
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
#2. To: christine (#0)
#3. To: christine (#0)
#4. To: Sam Houston (#3)
White, working-class voters are not supposed to be reliant on government programs, so why would they ever vote Democrat to start with?
#5. To: Sam Houston (#3)
White, working-class voters are not supposed to be reliant on government programs, so why would they ever vote Democrat to start with?
#6. To: All (#1)
And you can call these people every name in the book, starting with racist, as some Obama supporters are prone to
#7. To: Arator (#5)
#8. To: Arator, Jethro Tull, christine, lodwick, Robin, Sam Houston (#1)
#9. To: Jethro Tull (#6)
Hillary has an argument to the Supers.
#10. To: Horse (#8)
#11. To: RickyJ (#9)
I think the supers will do whatever the elite want them to do. I think Obama has it. He may even win in November. Obama will be very easy to control with his very checkered past.
#12. To: Horse (#8)
#13. To: christine (#0)
And you can call these people every name in the book, starting with racist, as some Obama supporters are prone to do, but questioning people’s motives generally is not a very effective approach to addressing their doubts or bringing them into the fold. Insults do not turn skeptics into supporters.
#14. To: Horse (#8)
By opening up colleges to the white working class we will change America and make it truly diverse.
#15. To: Arator, FOH, RICKYJ, JETHRO TULL (#5)
so why would they ever vote Democrat to start with?
"There is no 'legitimate' Corporation by virtue of it's very legal definition and purpose."
-- IndieTx
#16. To: Jethro Tull (#12)
If he did that tomorrow, He'd win by 70-30.
#17. To: buckeye (#16)
The controlled press would suddenly turn on him.
#18. To: mirage (#13)
This is very true and the Obama supporters as well as the campaign are turning voters off to Obama by playing the "Vote Obama or you're a racist" card at every turn.
#19. To: roughrider (#18)
This is a combination of legitimizing the use of the Ad Hominem in debate along with a sneaky way of doing what liberals claim they do not like: Imposing morality and religion.
#20. To: roughrider (#18)
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