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Title: Sun goes longer than normal without producing sunspots
Source:
MSU
URL Source: http://www.montana.edu/cpa/news/nwview.php?article=5982&log
Published: Jun 26, 2008
Author: Evelyn Boswell
Post Date: 2008-06-26 22:34:37 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 114
Comments: 6
BOZEMAN -- The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites. That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment." The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. "It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. "That's a small concern, a very small concern." The Hinode satellite is a Japanese mission with the United States and United Kingdom as partners. The satellite carries three telescopes that together show how changes on the sun's surface spread through the solar atmosphere. MSU researchers are among those operating the X-ray telescope. The satellite orbits 431 miles above ground, crossing both poles and making one lap every 95 minutes, giving Hinode an uninterrupted view of the sun for several months out of the year. Dana Longcope, a solar physicist at MSU, said the sun usually operates on an 11-year cycle with maximum activity occurring in the middle of the cycle. Minimum activity generally occurs as the cycles change. Solar activity refers to phenomena like sunspots, solar flares and solar eruptions. Together, they create the weather than can disrupt satellites in space and technology on earth. The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why. "It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance. Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period coincided with a little ice age on Earth that lasted from 1650 to 1700. Tsuneta said he doesn't know how long the sun will continue to be inactive, but scientists associated with the Hinode mission are ready for it to resume maximum activity. They have added extra ground stations to pick up signals from Hinode in case solar activity interferes with instruments at other stations around the world. The new stations, ready to start operating this summer, are located in India, Norway, Alaska and the South Pole. Establishing those stations, as well as the Hinode mission, required international cooperation, Tsuneta said. No one country had the resources to carry out those projects by itself. Four countries, three space agencies and 11 organizations worked together on Hinode which was launched in September 2006, Tsuneta said. Among the collaborators was Loren Acton, a research professor of physics at MSU. Tsuneta and Acton worked together closely from 1986-2002 and were reunited at the MSU conference. "His leadership was immense, superb," Tsuneta said about Acton. Acton, 72, said he is still enthused by solar physics and the new questions being raised. In fact, he wished he could knock 22 years off his age and extend his career even longer. "It's too much fun," he said. "There's so much exciting stuff come up, I would like to be part of it." A related article on the Hinode mission is located at www.montana.edu/cpa/news/nwview.php?article=4902
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#1. To: Horse, *Agriculture-Environment* (#0)
It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a solar physicist) to see that the current inactivity is normal, as we are at the minimum swing of the current cycle. Here's some graphs which show sunspot activity all the way back to 1760.. A bit of hyperbole. "That's a small concern, a very small concern." Minima are harder to define than peaks. I trust the amateurs, who don't have any money riding on the answer (If you want something done well, hire a professional; if you want something done beautifully, hire an amateur.) K7RA says it appears so far that the minimum was last October, but concedes cycle 24 may be a bit stalled. I agree that's all the data justifies at this point. But I suspect we may be in for a bit of cooling.
Keisha Brown, 21, from Chicago, whose mother has a nightgown with a picture of Obama on it, said, “Everything will be different now.”
That is an absolute lie by the way.
The following tables list the daily sunspot numbers from 2005-2008. The value at the bottom of each column indicates the average number of sunspots per day for the month. It's quite obvious that the author is either lying or doesn't know what she's talking about.
DAILY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 2005
===============================================================================
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Day
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
32 19 0 16 42 53 78 63 17 9 18 49 2005 01
32 17 8 20 42 40 95 69 14 8 19 54 2005 02
24 11 9 28 47 33 101 48 9 10 11 60 2005 03
14 15 8 33 43 49 107 40 9 14 12 55 2005 04
11 16 9 35 40 62 103 40 8 17 12 55 2005 05
12 38 10 29 45 64 84 33 8 15 14 45 2005 06
11 38 18 28 37 73 75 39 14 14 25 23 2005 07
10 35 33 27 46 68 64 37 20 12 8 25 2005 08
14 39 38 27 63 67 57 34 28 10 8 23 2005 09
19 48 41 27 77 70 42 16 35 16 0 39 2005 10
27 52 43 13 82 55 41 22 34 14 0 38 2005 11
40 56 42 21 80 52 38 27 37 14 10 33 2005 12
41 48 42 29 62 31 41 22 50 0 12 38 2005 13
54 48 40 35 51 33 30 26 41 8 19 38 2005 14
59 52 37 36 39 40 21 27 39 8 20 36 2005 15
65 45 28 28 43 43 11 24 33 8 23 31 2005 16
64 43 25 26 33 48 8 20 35 8 24 28 2005 17
61 37 25 26 26 32 0 19 33 8 26 28 2005 18
45 31 26 26 23 29 9 44 26 16 26 43 2005 19
42 27 25 24 15 31 0 48 14 9 33 39 2005 20
45 20 30 16 13 34 0 39 13 8 27 42 2005 21
31 20 28 16 24 27 8 38 14 7 27 41 2005 22
26 16 32 14 25 11 16 36 19 8 24 36 2005 23
28 11 41 9 25 11 11 42 17 0 27 53 2005 24
32 8 34 10 30 12 12 41 16 0 20 43 2005 25
23 12 26 11 44 0 15 37 22 0 15 52 2005 26
20 8 22 17 44 8 11 42 16 0 16 51 2005 27
20 7 10 30 37 9 18 46 15 0 17 44 2005 28
19 9 35 43 28 34 43 14 8 16 45 2005 29
22 7 34 46 67 43 37 7 9 30 46 2005 30
26 15 58 69 29 12 41 2005 31
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
31.3 29.2 24.5 24.2 42.7 39.3 40.1 36.4 21.9 8.7 18.0 41.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Values are final.
DAILY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 2008
===============================================================================
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Day
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 11 0 16 0 2008 01
7 9 0 9 0 2008 02
7 9 7 9 0 2008 03
12 8 0 7 7 2008 04
10 0 0 0 8 2008 05
11 0 8 0 0 2008 06
11 0 0 0 0 2008 07
9 0 0 0 0 2008 08
0 0 0 0 0 2008 09
8 0 9 0 0 2008 10
8 0 0 0 0 2008 11
0 0 0 0 0 2008 12
0 0 0 7 8 2008 13
0 0 0 7 0 2008 14
0 0 7 0 9 2008 15
0 0 7 0 14 2008 16
0 0 7 0 12 2008 17
0 0 0 0 15 2008 18
0 0 0 8 11 2008 19
0 0 0 0 7 2008 20
0 0 0 0 0 2008 21
0 0 0 8 0 2008 22
0 0 0 8 0 2008 23
0 0 19 7 0 2008 24
0 8 32 0 0 2008 25
0 8 36 0 0 2008 26
0 8 35 0 0 2008 27
0 0 34 0 0 2008 28
0 0 30 0 0 2008 29
8 31 0 0 2008 30
8 25 0 2008 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3.4 2.1 9.3 2.9 2.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Values are preliminary after Dec 07.
The latest word through email on sunspot activity: Nasa’s announcement that there is nothing wrong with the sun needs in this frame a little investigation. (By the way how can sun be "wrong"?). Nasa says that "The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle." I assume that they mean past behavior by their "historic norms". To be able to assess the value of this claim I counted the length of the cycle minima beginning from the second month below 10 Wolfs to the second last month below 10 Wolfs. I compare this time frame to the cycle that is beginning. Below 1 year: 2 cycles (2 1766- and 18 1944-). 1.0-1.9 years: 12 cycles (includes all the five cycles 19-23 (1954-, … ,1996- ). 2.0-2.9 years: 2 cycles (1 1755- and 17 1933-). The cycle 24 will be at least in this category, because in July 2008 the lull preceding the cycle 24 has lasted already 2.4 years. 3.0-3.9 years: 3 cycles (5 1798-, 12 1878- and 15 1913-). 4.0-4.9 years: 3 cycles (7 1823-, 13 1889- and 14 1901-). 5.0-5.9 years: none. 6.0-6.9 years: none. 7.1 years: cycle 6 (1810-). 1810 is the only year after 1713 that has been wholly spotless. In August 2008 there will be 16 cycles with shorter minima and 7 cycles with longer minima than the on-going minimum. Still more important is that the longer minima are in two consecutive groups: cycles 5-7 (Dalton minimum) and 12- 15 (1878-1913) and that all the cycles 16-23 (1923-1996) have shorter minima than will be due to the cycle 24. Nasa continues: "This report, that there’s nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun." Probably Nasa means that our observations/hypotheses/theories, not the sun, is wrong. What is newsworthy is that since 1913 not one minimum has lasted as long as the on-going one. And the end is not in sight. What is newsworthy is that after a period of 76 years or one Gleissberg (1923-1996) of short minima we are back to periods like the 25-year Dalton (1798-1823) or the second part of the Maunder minimum (1675-1699) or the cycles 12-15 (1878-1913). The active part of the long minima cycles lasted 7-8 years and of the short minima cycles about 9 years. So there is a phase shift going on with the cycle 24 and that is what is newsworthy. The climate changes to cool and warm in step with the solar phase shifts. Nasa continues: "Decaying solar cycle 23 has so far lasted 142 months – well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal." (Why don’t they tell is their SD .95 or .98?). But in theory this is true in a mathematical sense, but unfortunately it has no relevance in this context. The reason is that we have here no socalled normal distribution, where you could use the standard deviation in a statistically and logically meaningful way. Instead we have here a series of phase shifts: 1798 (1796) to long minima, 1833 (1832) to short minima, 1878 (1876) to long minima, 1923 (1922) to short minima and now again (from 2005/2006) again to long minima. Nasa continues: "The current minimum is not abnormally low or long." But that’s not the point. The point is the ongoing phase shift with cycle 24. Nasa compares this minimum also with Maunder minimum ("the longest minimum on record"), which is not a valid comparison because the on-going minimum is between cycles (could be also between super-cycles, but that we can’t know) and the Maunder minimum was a super-minimum where we can (barely, but still) see five cycles. Nasa: "The quiet of 2008 is not the second coming of the Maunder Minimum, believes Hathaway. We have already observed a few sunspots from the next solar cycle, he says. This suggests the solar cycle is progressing normally." I take this as an overstatement. Three very tiny spots lasting 1-2 days during the last half year. Normal? Surely not. 10.7cm flux going down to some 65 during the same period. Normal? Maybe if we put together Maunder, Dalton and the hyper-active sun of the 1900’s. So this leads to the conclusion that however the sun behaves, it is normal. But there is really some point to that. The sun really behaves always normal (according to physical laws), but the various ways and many surprises in which it shows its normality is really fascinating.
"You have delusions of adequacy."
#2. To: Horse (#0)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#3. To: Horse (#0)
producing no sunspots
#4. To: Horse (#0)
The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#5. To: Horse (#0)
The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites.
DAILY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 2006
===============================================================================
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Day
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 0 0 35 33 8 21 7 21 25 32 34 2006 01
24 0 0 39 35 0 17 7 10 23 42 32 2006 02
19 0 0 44 34 0 19 9 0 16 44 28 2006 03
17 0 9 49 36 11 20 0 0 16 39 24 2006 04
15 0 16 50 32 15 19 0 16 17 32 28 2006 05
15 0 14 54 27 18 20 0 24 16 24 33 2006 06
8 7 0 46 32 33 20 0 29 16 19 31 2006 07
7 7 0 41 31 33 19 7 29 15 26 17 2006 08
8 14 0 33 28 27 17 16 30 15 18 13 2006 09
8 10 0 36 19 28 8 17 30 10 9 14 2006 10
8 8 0 38 16 21 8 16 27 0 11 17 2006 11
8 0 9 41 7 17 7 15 19 0 13 17 2006 12
0 9 10 40 7 16 0 16 18 0 21 16 2006 13
8 11 14 36 0 8 8 19 9 0 28 14 2006 14
20 15 14 23 0 8 9 19 9 0 27 13 2006 15
24 15 13 15 0 12 11 19 8 0 31 12 2006 16
22 7 19 8 0 13 12 17 15 0 28 9 2006 17
26 7 16 7 8 10 12 19 7 0 28 0 2006 18
24 12 16 14 8 12 13 15 8 10 27 0 2006 19
16 0 19 10 19 12 8 10 8 10 21 0 2006 20
19 0 19 9 20 10 0 16 8 11 0 0 2006 21
31 0 19 11 28 0 8 9 11 15 0 0 2006 22
37 0 18 8 30 0 10 12 8 27 7 0 2006 23
30 0 21 11 26 0 11 12 9 21 0 8 2006 24
19 0 11 28 25 8 10 15 8 10 8 10 2006 25
14 0 0 35 28 10 10 14 10 0 9 13 2006 26
9 7 0 39 32 13 10 21 7 8 20 12 2006 27
7 7 9 37 37 24 9 22 8 10 23 0 2006 28
7 19 32 35 26 9 17 22 0 24 0 2006 29
0 20 37 32 25 17 12 25 9 35 10 2006 30
0 24 27 15 22 23 17 2006 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15.3 4.9 10.6 30.2 22.3 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.4 10.4 21.5 13.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Values are preliminary after Sep 06.
DAILY SUNSPOT NUMBERS 2007
===============================================================================
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Day
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22 22 7 10 20 19 19 0 14 0 0 10 2007 01
24 24 7 0 20 25 11 0 8 0 0 9 2007 02
25 21 7 0 12 31 9 7 8 0 0 7 2007 03
25 17 8 0 11 34 9 7 8 0 0 9 2007 04
28 16 17 0 10 35 9 7 8 0 0 8 2007 05
27 15 14 0 9 33 9 8 0 11 8 16 2007 06
24 15 0 0 8 37 8 8 0 9 0 15 2007 07
30 8 0 0 9 34 10 9 0 7 0 25 2007 08
27 7 0 0 11 12 14 9 0 0 0 26 2007 09
24 7 0 0 12 9 17 9 0 0 0 24 2007 10
23 0 9 0 14 9 17 8 0 0 0 24 2007 11
16 0 8 0 13 8 15 8 0 0 0 28 2007 12
17 0 0 0 11 8 26 8 0 0 0 30 2007 13
11 0 0 0 18 0 27 0 0 0 0 24 2007 14
11 0 0 0 18 0 25 0 0 0 0 22 2007 15
11 0 0 0 19 0 20 0 0 0 10 18 2007 16
9 8 0 7 24 0 11 0 0 0 9 11 2007 17
10 8 0 0 25 0 9 0 0 0 0 7 2007 18
14 20 0 0 22 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 2007 19
11 17 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 20
11 10 0 0 11 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 2007 21
12 16 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 2007 22
10 15 8 0 14 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 2007 23
11 8 8 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 10 0 2007 24
8 8 0 8 0 7 0 8 0 0 8 0 2007 25
7 15 9 10 0 8 0 8 0 0 7 0 2007 26
7 15 8 11 0 8 0 8 0 0 0 0 2007 27
8 8 8 14 0 9 9 8 9 0 0 0 2007 28
18 8 20 7 18 9 8 9 0 0 0 2007 29
20 7 21 7 18 9 8 9 0 0 0 2007 30
20 7 7 0 17 0 0 2007 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.8 10.7 4.5 3.4 11.7 12.1 9.7 6.0 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Values are final.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#6. To: Horse, Original_Intent, christine, lodwick, critter, artisan, axenolith, *Agriculture-Environment* (#0)
The cycle 24 will start a new phase shift in the sun.
"You have delusions of adequacy."
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