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Title: Sun goes longer than normal without producing sunspots
Source: MSU
URL Source: http://www.montana.edu/cpa/news/nwview.php?article=5982&log
Published: Jun 26, 2008
Author: Evelyn Boswell
Post Date: 2008-06-26 22:34:37 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 173
Comments: 6

BOZEMAN -- The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites.

That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment."

The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual.

"It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. "That's a small concern, a very small concern."

The Hinode satellite is a Japanese mission with the United States and United Kingdom as partners. The satellite carries three telescopes that together show how changes on the sun's surface spread through the solar atmosphere. MSU researchers are among those operating the X-ray telescope. The satellite orbits 431 miles above ground, crossing both poles and making one lap every 95 minutes, giving Hinode an uninterrupted view of the sun for several months out of the year.

Dana Longcope, a solar physicist at MSU, said the sun usually operates on an 11-year cycle with maximum activity occurring in the middle of the cycle. Minimum activity generally occurs as the cycles change. Solar activity refers to phenomena like sunspots, solar flares and solar eruptions. Together, they create the weather than can disrupt satellites in space and technology on earth.

The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why.

"It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance.

Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period coincided with a little ice age on Earth that lasted from 1650 to 1700.

Tsuneta said he doesn't know how long the sun will continue to be inactive, but scientists associated with the Hinode mission are ready for it to resume maximum activity. They have added extra ground stations to pick up signals from Hinode in case solar activity interferes with instruments at other stations around the world. The new stations, ready to start operating this summer, are located in India, Norway, Alaska and the South Pole.

Establishing those stations, as well as the Hinode mission, required international cooperation, Tsuneta said. No one country had the resources to carry out those projects by itself.

Four countries, three space agencies and 11 organizations worked together on Hinode which was launched in September 2006, Tsuneta said. Among the collaborators was Loren Acton, a research professor of physics at MSU. Tsuneta and Acton worked together closely from 1986-2002 and were reunited at the MSU conference.

"His leadership was immense, superb," Tsuneta said about Acton.

Acton, 72, said he is still enthused by solar physics and the new questions being raised. In fact, he wished he could knock 22 years off his age and extend his career even longer.

"It's too much fun," he said. "There's so much exciting stuff come up, I would like to be part of it."

A related article on the Hinode mission is located at www.montana.edu/cpa/news/nwview.php?article=4902

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 6.

#6. To: Horse, Original_Intent, christine, lodwick, critter, artisan, axenolith, *Agriculture-Environment* (#0)

The latest word through email on sunspot activity:

The cycle 24 will start a new phase shift in the sun.

Nasa’s announcement that there is nothing wrong with the sun needs in this frame a little investigation. (By the way how can sun be "wrong"?).

Nasa says that "The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle." I assume that they mean past behavior by their "historic norms".

To be able to assess the value of this claim I counted the length of the cycle minima beginning from the second month below 10 Wolfs to the second last month below 10 Wolfs. I compare this time frame to the cycle that is beginning.

Below 1 year: 2 cycles (2 1766- and 18 1944-).

1.0-1.9 years: 12 cycles (includes all the five cycles 19-23 (1954-, … ,1996- ).

2.0-2.9 years: 2 cycles (1 1755- and 17 1933-).

The cycle 24 will be at least in this category, because in July 2008 the lull preceding the cycle 24 has lasted already 2.4 years.

3.0-3.9 years: 3 cycles (5 1798-, 12 1878- and 15 1913-).

4.0-4.9 years: 3 cycles (7 1823-, 13 1889- and 14 1901-).

5.0-5.9 years: none.

6.0-6.9 years: none.

7.1 years: cycle 6 (1810-). 1810 is the only year after 1713 that has been wholly spotless.

In August 2008 there will be 16 cycles with shorter minima and 7 cycles with longer minima than the on-going minimum. Still more important is that the longer minima are in two consecutive groups: cycles 5-7 (Dalton minimum) and 12- 15 (1878-1913) and that all the cycles 16-23 (1923-1996) have shorter minima than will be due to the cycle 24.

Nasa continues: "This report, that there’s nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun." Probably Nasa means that our observations/hypotheses/theories, not the sun, is wrong.

What is newsworthy is that since 1913 not one minimum has lasted as long as the on-going one. And the end is not in sight. What is newsworthy is that after a period of 76 years or one Gleissberg (1923-1996) of short minima we are back to periods like the 25-year Dalton (1798-1823) or the second part of the Maunder minimum (1675-1699) or the cycles 12-15 (1878-1913). The active part of the long minima cycles lasted 7-8 years and of the short minima cycles about 9 years.

So there is a phase shift going on with the cycle 24 and that is what is newsworthy. The climate changes to cool and warm in step with the solar phase shifts.

Nasa continues: "Decaying solar cycle 23 has so far lasted 142 months – well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal." (Why don’t they tell is their SD .95 or .98?). But in theory this is true in a mathematical sense, but unfortunately it has no relevance in this context. The reason is that we have here no socalled normal distribution, where you could use the standard deviation in a statistically and logically meaningful way.

Instead we have here a series of phase shifts: 1798 (1796) to long minima, 1833 (1832) to short minima, 1878 (1876) to long minima, 1923 (1922) to short minima and now again (from 2005/2006) again to long minima.

Nasa continues: "The current minimum is not abnormally low or long." But that’s not the point. The point is the ongoing phase shift with cycle 24.

Nasa compares this minimum also with Maunder minimum ("the longest minimum on record"), which is not a valid comparison because the on-going minimum is between cycles (could be also between super-cycles, but that we can’t know) and the Maunder minimum was a super-minimum where we can (barely, but still) see five cycles.

Nasa: "The quiet of 2008 is not the second coming of the Maunder Minimum, believes Hathaway. We have already observed a few sunspots from the next solar cycle, he says. This suggests the solar cycle is progressing normally."

I take this as an overstatement. Three very tiny spots lasting 1-2 days during the last half year. Normal? Surely not. 10.7cm flux going down to some 65 during the same period. Normal? Maybe if we put together Maunder, Dalton and the hyper-active sun of the 1900’s. So this leads to the conclusion that however the sun behaves, it is normal. But there is really some point to that.

The sun really behaves always normal (according to physical laws), but the various ways and many surprises in which it shows its normality is really fascinating.

farmfriend  posted on  2008-07-17   22:58:10 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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