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Title: New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat
Source:
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URL Source: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Published: Jul 1, 2008
Author: CNN
Post Date: 2008-07-01 17:19:38 by Jethro Tull
Keywords: None
Views: 346
Comments: 25
(CNN) 52; With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.
With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes Tuesday's survey confirms what a string of national polls released this month have shown: Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain, though not a big enough one to constitute a statistical lead.
"Every standard telephone poll taken in June has shown Obama ahead of McCain, with nearly all of them showing Obama's margin somewhere between three and six points," Holland said. "In most of them, that margin is not enough to give him a lead in a statistical sense, but it appears that June has been a good month for Obama."
But the new CNN/ORC polls shows the race gets even tighter when the two most prominent third-party presidential candidates are considered. In a four way match-up that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, Obama's lead over McCain dwindles to 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. (Nader registers 6 percent while Barr gets 3 percent.)
But it remains unclear just how much effect Nader and Barr will have on the election, as summertime surveys often overstate the eventual Election Day showing of third-party candidates.
"A useful rule of thumb is that third-party candidates in November get no more than half the support polls show them having in June or July," Holland said.
Meanwhile, one day after the Illinois senator sharply defended his devotion to America during a high-profile speech in the crucial swing state of Missouri, the new survey shows some voters continue to have lingering questions about his patriotism.
Poster Comment:
This is hard to believe, and Obama can't lose for one really big reason - if this turns out like a Bush-Gore '00 selection, we can expect our cities to ignite. In fact, a loss by Obama at this point will ensure massive race riots. But that's all probably been thought through already.......
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#1. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
O'Bummer beats McCrazySenile in a landslide. Get used to it.
i think it's pretty clear that Obama is the chosen one. it's the dems turn at bat. business as usual with the every 8 yr change of the (head) guard.
Remember Bobdole (war super-hero, semi-disabled) challenging draft-dodging Clinton? Same thing. You're likely to see McCain in sunscreen commercials in 2009 or... who knows... Cialis?
i remember well. now, do you agree that this is all orchestrated?
Well... there are levels of orchestration. Given the two-party system, of course it's all orchestrated. As actors within the system, the individual parties surely want to get or to stay on top, so to speak, and they each play their part and keep the system going while competing for the top position inside the system. I don't believe that the top GOPs and the top Demos meet secretly and agree on who gets what. There is no need for that. As for Obama, he certainly started his life as an idealist. I believe that many politicians begin this way, Newt - a fully corrupted wreck now - was probably one of them, maybe Giuliani was an idealist too. Now, that Obama is so close to getting the prez. job, the corrupting temptations and the pressures to make compromises and to betray his idealism must be almost impossible to resist. He is probably in the phase where he justifies what he believes to be small concessions - such as the AIPAC speech - within the context of winning and finding himself in the position to do good. Most who attempt this get totally corrupted before they win the prize but, a few, reach the top with some residual goodness. Think of Gorbachev, Deng Xiao Ping, even Jimi Carter. Obama is like a comet speeding toward the Sun, melting away, shedding more substance the closer it gets to the star. Will there be anything left by the time it can break free? That we shall see. McCain... he's a dead, worn-out body. There's nothing left for him to shed. I believe that Obama may not completely betray his idealism because he is relatively young.
i like the word picture you draw there. He is probably in the phase where he justifies what he believes to be small concessions - such as the AIPAC speech - within the context of winning and finding himself in the position to do good. i'm much more cynical than you. obama's got the same has beens who have been in government for decades as his advisors. where's the change he touts? i'm real interested to see who his VP pick is. that will be illuminating. i understand he sang the praises of kathleen sebelius, the bilderberg pick, in missouri today.
And he's pandering to the evangelatins now.
#22. To: MUDDOG (#21)
Obama Vows To Expand Bush's Faith-Based Programs yeah, that's about as obvious an example of pandering as one can be. it's good to see you.
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#2. To: a vast rightwing conspirator (#1)
#5. To: christine (#2)
#7. To: a vast rightwing conspirator (#5)
#15. To: christine (#7)
(Edited)
#18. To: a vast rightwing conspirator, Arator (#15)
Obama is like a comet speeding toward the Sun, melting away, shedding more substance the closer it gets to the star. Will there be anything left by the time it can break free?
#21. To: christine (#18)
obama's got the same has beens
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