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Title: New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat
Source:
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URL Source: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Published: Jul 1, 2008
Author: CNN
Post Date: 2008-07-01 17:19:38 by Jethro Tull
Keywords: None
Views: 317
Comments: 25
(CNN) 52; With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.
With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes Tuesday's survey confirms what a string of national polls released this month have shown: Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain, though not a big enough one to constitute a statistical lead.
"Every standard telephone poll taken in June has shown Obama ahead of McCain, with nearly all of them showing Obama's margin somewhere between three and six points," Holland said. "In most of them, that margin is not enough to give him a lead in a statistical sense, but it appears that June has been a good month for Obama."
But the new CNN/ORC polls shows the race gets even tighter when the two most prominent third-party presidential candidates are considered. In a four way match-up that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, Obama's lead over McCain dwindles to 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. (Nader registers 6 percent while Barr gets 3 percent.)
But it remains unclear just how much effect Nader and Barr will have on the election, as summertime surveys often overstate the eventual Election Day showing of third-party candidates.
"A useful rule of thumb is that third-party candidates in November get no more than half the support polls show them having in June or July," Holland said.
Meanwhile, one day after the Illinois senator sharply defended his devotion to America during a high-profile speech in the crucial swing state of Missouri, the new survey shows some voters continue to have lingering questions about his patriotism.
Poster Comment:
This is hard to believe, and Obama can't lose for one really big reason - if this turns out like a Bush-Gore '00 selection, we can expect our cities to ignite. In fact, a loss by Obama at this point will ensure massive race riots. But that's all probably been thought through already.......
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#25. To: Jethro Tull (#0)
Intrade still has Obama at 61+. Why is it that whenever I visit Slate to check presidential odds, I get an ad like this: It's starting to creep me out.
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