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Title: Republicans Demoralized But Presidential Race Still Close
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URL Source: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27322
Published: Jul 3, 2008
Author: Robert Novak
Post Date: 2008-07-03 07:37:49 by Disgusted
Keywords: None
Views: 238
Comments: 15
ENPR: Republicans Demoralized But Presidential Race Still Close by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney Posted: 07/02/2008 Print This From the standpoint of morale, enthusiasm, and confidence, the presidential election can be called no contest—Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain. The Republican candidate has not used the long period since he clinched the nomination to establish an effective campaign strategy. The level of depression among Republicans outside the McCain inner circle is worsening as Obama inches his way rightward, toward the middle of the road (at least rhetorically). Actually, it still looks like a close race on a state-by-state basis. Despite the enthusiasm gap, this remains a winnable race for McCain in a terrible Republican year. The truth is there remains voter resistance to Obama that to some degree is based on race. While Obama has been inching rightward carefully (most recently on his “I am patriot” speech), almost overlooked is his announced opposition to the California initiative on same-sex marriage. That could mobilize social conservatives nationwide. Another impetus to energize the social right may be the announcement of support for “equal time” legislation by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)—the so-called fairness doctrine. This represents a threat to the very existence of small religious radio stations across the country that could stir Christian conservatives out of their political lethargy. On the surface, the meeting at Washington’s Mayflower Hotel of some 150 financial supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton with Obama was a love-fest. Beneath the surface, though, Clintonistas were unimpressed. The candidate who is so overpowering in football stadium rallies did not capture the hearts of his former opponent’s fund-raisers, who deemed his performance “underwhelming.” Retired Gen. Wesley Clark talked his way out of what was shaping as a serious chance to be Obama’s running mate when he delivered a mindless blast against McCain’s war record (in the process, eclipsing Obama’s carefully crafted patriotism speech). Clark improved as a candidate during his 2004 presidential race, but not enough obviously. House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-Wis.) shut down the entire appropriations process to protect Democrats from having to vote on oil drilling. Republicans feel they are winning the national debate with their argument that insufficient supplies rather than speculators cause spiked oil and gasoline prices. The GOP leadership has instructed their troops to press for more drilling without defending speculators. However, it looks like a case of the operation being a great success but the patient dying. All indicators point to the Republicans being blamed for the gas price explosion (see New Hampshire, below). That kindles more talk of a change in the House Republican leadership after the ’08 elections. States Louisiana-Jindal: Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) has been hit by the first political firestorm of his tenure, and he has come out intact, but wounded. The crux of the matter was a 123% pay raise for Louisiana’s part-time legislators—from $16,800 to $37,500 per year. Jindal had campaigned against legislative pay raises. But in exchange for some of his proposed reforms, he promised lawmakers he would approve their raise by not vetoing it. The public eruption of outrage was surprising. Conservative radio hosts and other media outlets assailed the raise, and attacked Jindal as lacking a spine. There was little sympathy for his justification that he needed to make concessions to win the trust of lawmakers. Jindal did not help himself with the explanation he gave for his acquiescence: Although he thought the raise was a bad idea, legislative pay is a legislative matter and he would not interfere. Conservatives and other reformers objected that it was a taxpayer matter. Jindal’s popularity plummeted, from around 70% down to about 50% in one survey. Jindal’s willingness to sign the pay raise even compelled two of his former supporters to launch a recall drive—even though a recall would elevate Democratic Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu to the governorship. Many of the legislators approving the raise were also targeted with recall petitions. Jindal’s about-face in recent days was the result of this intense public pressure. Some conservatives had planned a rally at the state capitol. His veto message was extraordinary in its contrition. He wrote that his original deal with lawmakers “was a mistake on my part,” and he apologized to the lawmakers for breaking his promise. Legislators were upset, but their reaction was surprisingly tame. They had felt the public pressure, too. The strength of the anti-Jindal reaction had a few sources. Mostly, too many voters, especially Republicans, had put too much faith in Jindal after years of corruption and incompetence—their desperation was compounded by Hurricane Katrina, and continued corruption scandals. Nobody could have lived up to those expectations. Already, Jindal had earned some resentment. The mentions of him as a running mate for McCain, and his constant mugging for national media made some of his Louisiana supporters feel he was simply using this suffering state for his own advancement. Interestingly, the unrealistic Republican and conservative adulation towards Jindal upon his election resembled the current liberal adulation towards Obama. Senate New Hampshire: Right now, Sen. John Sununu (R) is the most endangered member of the U.S. Senate, but some Republicans are not too worried. Sununu consistently trails former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in polls, and one American Research Group survey last month of 600 likely voters showed Shaheen ahead 54% to 40%, with a +/- 4% margin of error. Comparisons to Sen. Rick Santorum’s (R-Pa.) 2006 embarrassing thrashing have been popping up for months. President Bush is the millstone around Sununu’s neck. One ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee calls Sununu “Bush’s Senator,” attacking him for joining Bush on Iraq, even on the successful surge. Shaheen, meanwhile is attacking oil companies and tying Sununu to the companies. These are bad times to be a Republican in New Hampshire. For six years, the state GOP has been in decline. Although Sununu personally doesn’t have very high negatives, he suffers as a Republican senator. This is the cause for some Republican hope. Shaheen and the DSCC have been up on the air, hitting Sununu, but he has only just begun campaigning. The most recent FEC data (three months old), showed Sununu with $4.3 million on hand to Shaheen’s $1.8 million. Sununu has been saving up. The GOP hope is that once voters are reintroduced to Sununu as a person, they will like him again. Similarly, once the presidential campaign is in full swing, McCain—popular in the Granite State—will replace Bush as the face of the national GOP. Along the same lines, Sununu hopes he can remind voters of the Shaheen they rejected in 2002: the former governor who tried to institute a sales tax. Without the sales-tax line of attack six years ago, Sununu probably would have lost. How far can Sununu ride personal likability and intelligence? How much of a deficit can he overcome with a late surge? This race will almost certainly tighten, but unless New Hampshire shows it is shedding its anti-Republican sentiment, Sununu will lose. Leaning Democratic Takeover. House Idaho-1: Congressional Republicans need to worry about every corner of the map this year, from Cuban districts in Miami all the way to Alaska, and Idaho’s 1st District is no exception. Freshman Rep. Bill Sali (R) faces the double threat of an antagonistic relationship with his party and a well-funded Democratic challenger. Businessman Walt Minnick (D), who ran for Senate in 1996, had outraised Sali $711,000 to $495,000 as of May 7, with twice as much cash on hand. The other leading Democrat in the primary contest, Larry Grant, who lost to Sali two years ago, stepped aside and endorsed Minnick. Sali’s problems with his own party are widespread. His House colleague, Rep. Mike Simpson (R), reportedly once threatened to throw him out the window. His former floor leader in Boise once said of him, “That idiot is just an absolute idiot.” Sali won a contentious, crowded primary in 2006, and then barely pulled out the general election to replace former Rep. Butch Otter (R), now governor of Idaho. As an indicator of his Republican problem, Sali’s low-profile primary challenger this year, Matthew Salisbury (R), garnered 40% of the primary vote while spending less than $50,000. Sali will benefit from the McCain-Obama battle atop the ticket, but if Minnick can win over anti-Sali Republicans, this will be another GOP loss. Until we see evidence of that, Sali looks like the slight favorite. Leaning Republican Retention.
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#1. To: Disgusted (#0)
Close???? Both horses are owned by the same stable, which one wins is only of interest to the rubes in the stands.
Close next month will mean Obama chooses Clinton for veep
A sure thing a year ago for Clinton has turned into an embarrassment for her. I do not recall anyone in the political world saying and believing otherwise. With that in mind, we should wonder where Obama came from as he was not in the starting gate two years ago. The ONLY candidate from both "parties" that had zero money problems from day one. Untold millions fell from heaven every day. Why the unseating of Clinton, with what in mind?
Close???? Both horses are owned by the same stable, which one wins is only of interest to the rubes in the stands. 120 million rubes. God help us.
Republican politicians SHOULD be demoralized, wrapping yourself in the flag while holding a Bible doesn't play in Peoria anymore. The GOP can't excuse their ongoing acts of treason such as the open border with mexico and the attack on the Second Amendment from the right. Republicans spit in Americans faces every day, all day long. To hell with them, I hope every one of them running this November gets unceremoniously tossed out of office.
That's been true of just about every election we've had since the second world war. While we're talking about horse races and rubes, I wonder - what are the odds in Vegas and Atlantic City for bets on Obama vs. McCain? Whoever bet against Hillary and Giuliani in the primaries probably made a killing. Maybe we've finally found a use for Presidential (S)elections.
You are doing some thinking. I and most other political hacks, flacks, and pundits would have bet the farm on Hillary being the nominee. That was a sure bet... given that the process was allowed to run its natural course. Obama was not even a long shot. The race was fixed, how, why or by whom made no difference. Now we same flacks, hacks etc etc, are more than leery on deciding what odds to give as this race is fixed from the get go and no one knows in whose favor. Hint, the fixers win no matter which horse shows up in DC.
Heck, I placed two bets on Hillary!, should've gotten 3 to 1 but took 2 to 1. Irrelevant anyway, since I'm out some cash. Haven't paid up, just in case.... Also amazing was the transformation last year; I was out of the country and when I got back, Obama was being exalted in a manner unthought of just a month before. Oct - Dec 2007.
I'm still wondering how media-darlings Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney got tossed aside in favor of last-place McCain. He was broke and all of a sudden, BAM!, he's The Chosen One.
All three were media darlings, so any and all were equally acceptable. When it became clear that Giuliani was running an inept campaign (ignoring all of the early primary states), they decided to throw their chips to another puppet.
Hillary takes a back seat in the event the crap shows up on Obaba. Then, she magically becomes the darling of the convention. McCain and Obaba slug it out from now till then and Hillery! is off the hot seat. A lot can happen in 53 days.
What a crock of shiite! I wouldn't vote for that SOB if he were any variety of colors!!
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
The CFR trotted out their stalking horses right on cue. ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
I'm seeing lots of Obama bumper stickers in an upper-income predominately white area. It's sad...
Close...
#2. To: Cynicom (#1)
#3. To: Disgusted (#2)
Close next month will mean Obama chooses Clinton for veep
#4. To: Cynicom, Disgusted (#1)
Close...
#5. To: TwentyTwelve (#4)
#6. To: Disgusted (#0)
“The best and first guarantor of our neutrality and our independent existence is the defensive will of the people…and the proverbial marksmanship of the Swiss shooter. Each soldier a good marksman! Each shot a hit!” Schweizerische Schutzenseitunt (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#7. To: Cynicom (#1)
Both horses are owned by the same stable, which one wins is only of interest to the rubes in the stands
#8. To: Rupert_Pupkinjethro tull, christine (#7)
While we're talking about horse races and rubes, I wonder - what are the odds in Vegas and Atlantic City for bets on Obama vs. McCain?
#9. To: Cynicom (#8)
#10. To: Cynicom (#8)
“The best and first guarantor of our neutrality and our independent existence is the defensive will of the people…and the proverbial marksmanship of the Swiss shooter. Each soldier a good marksman! Each shot a hit!” Schweizerische Schutzenseitunt (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#11. To: X-15 (#10)
I'm still wondering how media-darlings Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney got tossed aside in favor of last-place McCain. He was broke and all of a sudden, BAM!, he's The Chosen One
#12. To: Cynicom (#8)
(Edited)
The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be the United States presidential nominating convention of the Democratic Party. It will be held from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, after the Summer Olympics in Beijing.
#13. To: Disgusted (#0)
The truth is there remains voter resistance to Obama that to some degree is based on race.
#14. To: Rupert_Pupkin (#11)
All three were media darlings, so any and all were equally acceptable. When it became clear that Giuliani was running an inept campaign (ignoring all of the early primary states), they decided to throw their chips to another puppet.
#15. To: Rotara (#13)
“The best and first guarantor of our neutrality and our independent existence is the defensive will of the people…and the proverbial marksmanship of the Swiss shooter. Each soldier a good marksman! Each shot a hit!” Schweizerische Schutzenseitunt (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
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