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Title: Australian Researchers Warn of Global Cooling
Source:
Daily Tech (Aus)
URL Source: http://www.dailytech.com/Australian ... lobal+Cooling/article12250.htm
Published: Jul 4, 2008
Author: Michael Asher
Post Date: 2008-07-04 01:00:25 by Original_Intent
Keywords: Global, cooling, warming
Views: 783
Comments: 86
"Spin-orbit coupling" to blame; effects could last decades. A new paper published by the Astronomical Society of Australia is warning of upcoming global cooling due to lessened solar activity. The study, written by three Australian researchers, has identified what is known as a "spin-orbit coupling" affecting the rotation rate of the sun. That rotation, in turn, is linked to the intensity of the solar cycle and climate changes here on Earth. The study's lead author, Ian Wilson, explains further, "[The paper] supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30 years." According to Wilson, the result is a strong, rapid pulse of global cooling, "On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 - 2 C." A 2 C drop would be twice as large as all the warming the earth has experienced since the start of the industrial era, and would be significant enough to impact global agriculture output. Earlier this year, astronomers from around the world noted solar activity was suspiciously low; some began predicting global cooling at that time. Since then, activity has remained far below average, with it now being over two months since a single sunspot has appeared on the surface of the sun. In May, a team of German climatologists published research stating that, due to "natural effects", global warming would halt for up to 15 years. The new paper appears in the June issue of PASA, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 67.
#1. To: farmfriend, FormerLurker, christine, Ferret Mike, angle, Chicken Little, Algore, all (#0)
(((((The Sky is "falling" Ping or Global One or the Other Ping)))))
Did you notice the graph on the source page of your article, and the caption below it? It states "A 2005 prediction of solar activity. The sunspot number should now stand close to 100, instead it is zero." It is obvious that whoever wrote that is hoping that his readers all just swallow whatever is handed them as gospel. Solar cycle 23 did NOT end in 2004 and solar activity did NOT drop to its minimum in 2006, it occured THIS year instead. The last cycle, cycle 23, lasted several years longer than shown in this graph. The authors should have known that. Again, here's an actual graph showing actual solar activity up to the end of May 2008.
The situation with sunspots from July 2007 to June 2008. The cycle 23 that began already in 1996 still reigns superior. There was no cycle 24 spots in June. From cycle 24 there are three tiny signatures: one in January (1 day), one in April (2 days) and one in May (2 days). In 2008 there has been 16 groups from cycle 23 lasting together 91 days, and 3 groups from cycle 24 lasting together 5 days. From July 2007 to December 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------- January 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- February 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- March 2008 (some ending in April) -------------------------------------------------------------------- April 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- May 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- June 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- The 12-monthly best fit gives around the year 1797. The Dalton minimum reigned 1798-1823. It's anybody's guess what happens next. At least the Earth is already cooling.
And it is questionable whether spots like these would have even been detectable in the past.
#72. To: Tauzero (#67)
They more than likely weren't detectable in the 1800s.
This is true. SOHO make detection much easier.
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#13. To: Original_Intent (#1)
(Edited)
#16. To: FormerLurker, RickyJ, who knows what evil, Sam Houston, DWornock (#13)
month
year
spotless days
days with below 10 Wolfs (1 sunspot group)
days with below 20 Wolfs (most probable 2 groups)
days between 20-30 Wolfs (3-4 groups)
07 2007 08 10 09 04
08 2007 08 22 01
09 2007 22 07 01
10 2007 28 02 01
11 2007 24 04 02
12 2007 12 05 05 08
spotless days 20
one spot group from cycle 23 (southern hemisphere) on 11 days
one spot group from cycle 24 (northern hemisphere) on 1 day (4.1.)
4.1. there were two spot groups at the same time, one from cycle 23
and one from cycle 24
Sunspot number 3.4 (3.1 from cycle 23 0.3 from cycle 24)
spotless days 21
one spot group from cycle 23 (southern hemisphere) on 8 days
none spots from cycle 24
Sunspot number 2.1 (all from cycle 23)
spotless days 16
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 2 days (5.-6.3.) max size 30 per mil
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 1 day (10.3.) max size 90 pm
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 3 days (15.-17.3.) max size 20 pm
a triplet (3 at the same time 25.3.-31.3.):
first sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 12 days (23.3.-31.3.)
second sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 13 days (24.3.-2.4.)
third sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 13 days (25.3.-3.4.)
max size together 520 pm (26.3.), above 100 from 24.3.-2.4.
none spots from cycle 24
Sunspot number 9.3 (all from cycle 23)
spotless days 20
remnants from sp-gr from cycle 23 1.4.-3.4. (see March)
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 2 days (19.-20.4.) max size 20 pm
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (NH) on 3 days (22.-24.4.) max size 40 pm
one sp-gr from cycle 24 (NH) on 2 days (14.-15.4.) max size 10 pm
this is number 2 cycle 24 spot 102 days after the first in January
Sunspot number 2.9 (2.45 from cycle 23 and 0.45 from cycle 24)
spotless days 23
three simultaneous sp-groups from cycle 23 (SH) on 1 day (16.5) ms 45
two sim. sp-groups from cycle 23 (SH) on 4 days (17.5.-20.5.) ms 80
one sp-gr from cycle 23 (SH) on 1 day (26.5.) ms 10
one sp-gr from cycle 24 (SH!) on 2 days (4.-5.5.) ms 20
sunspot number 2.9 (2.5 from cycle 23 and 0.4 from cycle 24)
spotless days 19
one sunspot group from cycle 23 (SH) on 4 days (10.-13.5.) msize 40
one sunspot group from cycle 23 (SH) on 7 days (16.-22.5.) msize 20
no sunpot groups from cycle 24
sunspot number 3.1
Sunspot number from Jan to June = 3, 2, 9, 3, 3, 3 = 23.7 = 22.55(from 23) + 1.15(from 24).
Spotless days Jan to June = 20, 21, 16, 20, 23, 19 = 65%.
Can Sun continue this way for long? Yes, it can. The lack of cycle 24 spots, the almost ghost-like 23-spot in 16.-22.6. really had only one spot, and at the same time radio flux of 10.7 cm was amazing 65. What is lacking? Wholly spotless months. Whatever perspective one has, my educated guess is that either July or August will be wholly spotless. Almost all solar parameters are so low, that at least it would not be surprising.
#67. To: farmfriend (#16)
From cycle 24 there are three tiny signatures: one in January (1 day), one in April (2 days) and one in May (2 days).
Replies to Comment # 67. And it is questionable whether spots like these would have even been detectable in the past.
#74. To: Tauzero (#67)
And it is questionable whether spots like these would have even been detectable in the past.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 67.