A new nationwide poll shows Barack Obama securing a majority of electoral college votes over Republican opponent John McCain in a new state-by-state poll. The Zogby Interactive online survey also shows Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr shaping up as a substantial factor in this year's election, pulling 6 percent of the vote. (He was substantially outperforming then-Green Party candidate Ralph Nader at a similar point in the 2000 campaign)
The poll was conducted June 11-30 among more than 46,000 likely voters.
If the election were held today, Obama would win 273 electoral votes, enough to hand him the presidency, according to Zogby's tally. McCain would receive 160 electoral votes, leaving 105 up for grabs. Obama is the choice of 44 percent of voters surveyed, compared to 38 percent who prefer McCain. Other projections, like the one being maintained at FiveThirtyEight.com, have Obama winning with as many as 308 electoral votes.
Pollster John Zogby said Barr "could really hurt McCain's chances," pointing to the former Georgia Republican's 7 percent support among conservative or very conservative voters, 43 percent support from libertarians and 11 percent showing with independents.
Liberal gadfly Nader, now running as an Independent, is polling at less than 2 percent in the latest survey.
Obama's campaign has been paying attention to Barr, saying he could help them in states like Alaska and Georgia.
Most observers blamed Nader for siphoning votes from Gore in 2000, especially in Florida, handing the White House to George W. Bush.
The Zogby poll released Monday shows Barr is now well outperforming Nader at a similar point in the 2000 campaign. A June 2000 Zogby poll showed Nader receiving about 2 percent of the vote, just a third of Barr's level of support.