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Title: The Deniers: Our spotless sun
Source:
National Post
URL Source: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/ ... -deniers-our-spotless-sun.aspx
Published: May 31, 2008
Author: Lawrence Solomon
Post Date: 2008-07-19 10:56:24 by Rotara
Keywords: Global Warming, Global Cooling, The Deniers
Views: 199
Comments: 13
With the debate focused on a warming Earth, the icy consequences of a cooler future have not been considered By Lawrence Solomon The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. Today’s spotlessness — what alarms Dr. Chapman and others — may be an anomaly of some kind, and the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn’t – and with each passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it will not – we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome. This was the case during the Little Ice Age, a period starting in the 15th or 16th century and lasting centuries, says NASA’s Goddard Space Centre, which links the absence of sunspots to the cold that then descended on Earth. During the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, a time known as the Maunder Minimum (named after English astronomer Edward Maunder), astronomers saw only about 50 sunspots over a 30-year period, less than one half of 1% of the sunspots that would normally have been expected. Other Minimums — times of low sunspot activity — also corresponded to times of unusual cold. The consequences of the Little Ice Age, because they occurred in relatively recent times, have come down to us through literature and the arts as well as from historians and scientists, government and business records. When Shakespeare wrote of “lawn as white as driven snow,” he had first-hand experience – Europe was bitterly cold in his day, a sharp contrast to the very warm weather that preceded his birth. During the Little Ice Age, the River Thames froze over, the Dutch developed the ice skate and the great artists of the day learned to love a new genre: the winter landscape. In what had been a warm Europe , adaptations were not all happy: Growing seasons in England and Continental Europe generally became short and unreliable, which led to shortages and famine. These hardships were nothing compared to the more northerly countries: Glaciers advanced rapidly in Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia and North America, making vast tracts of land uninhabitable. The Arctic pack ice extended so far south that several reports describe Eskimos landing their kayaks in Scotland. Finland’s population fell by one-third, Iceland’s by half, the Viking colonies in Greenland were abandoned altogether, as were many Inuit communities. The cold in North America spread so far south that, in the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, enabling people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. In the same way that the Earth shivered when sunspots disappeared, the Earth warmed when sunspot activity became pronounced. The warm period about 1000 years ago known as the Medieval Warm Period — a time of bounty in which grapes grew in England and Greenland was colonized — also was a time of high sunspot activity, called the Medieval Maximum. Since 1900, Earth has experienced what astronomers call “the Modern Maximum” — the 20th century has again been a time of high sunspot activity. But the 1900s are gone, along with the high temperatures that accompanied them. The last 10 years have seen no increase in temperatures — they reached a plateau and then remained there — and the last year saw a precipitous decline. How much lower and for how long the temperatures will fall, if at all, no one yet knows — the science is far from settled on what drives climate. But many are watching the sun for answers, and for good reason. Several renowned scientists have been predicting for some time that the world could enter a period of cooling right around now, with consequences that could be dire. “The next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do,” believes Dr. Chapman. “There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the U.S. and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.” We are now at the beginning of Solar Cycle 24, so named because it is the 24th consecutive cycle that astronomers have listed, starting with the first cycle that began in March, 1755, and ended in June, 1766. Each cycle lasts an average of approximately 11 years; each is marked by sunspots that first erupt in the mid latitudes of the sun, and then, over the course of the 11 years, erupt progressively toward the sun’s equator; each is marked by a change in the polarity of the sun’s hemispheres; each changes the temperature on Earth in ways that humans don’t fully understand, but cannot in all honesty deny. Financial Post Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com Photo: The spotless Sun, as it appeared yesterday at 12:48 p.m. The Sun’s spotlessness is giving rise to speculation of another Little Ice Age. (Solarcycle24.com)
Poster Comment:You probably haven’t heard much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you don’t. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse. That of your children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists, because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in the climate. As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society, “It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age.”
Sunspots have been well documented throughout human history, starting in the fourth century BC, with written descriptions by Gan De, a Chinese astronomer. In 1128, an English monk, John of Worcester, was the first person known to have drawn sunspots, and after the telescope’s arrival in the early 1600s, observations and drawings became commonplace, including by such luminaries as Galileo Galilei. Then, to the astonishment of astronomers, they saw the sunspots diminish and die out altogether.
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#1. To: farmfriend, JamesDeffenbach, RickyJ (#0)
I don't blame the lemmings; they cain't hep it. ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
I fervently or, should I say "icily," hope this is true. So far we are having an unusually mild summer in East Texas. The highest temp to date for June and July is 95. Most days it is no higher than 92 and quite a few have remained in the 80s. This is practically unheard of in my lifetime. Usually by now we would have had several 100+ days already.
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
You might know of Solomon. He broke from the 'consensus' of idiots that want to work with treasonous bureaucrats that use this bogus 'science' to push their agenda. The Kyoto envirowhacko tools, along with the corporate-pirate/National Party traitors, want you to live in a Federal high rise and pedal incessantly. ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
So far we are having an unusually mild summer in East Texas. The highest temp to date for June and July is 95. Most days it is no higher than 92 and quite a few have remained in the 80s. This is practically unheard of in my lifetime. Usually by now we would have had several 100+ days already. This is a book you should read. I'm listening to an interview with Larry Solomon right now. ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
From my email: Nasa’s announcement that there is nothing wrong with the sun needs in this frame a little investigation. (By the way how can sun be "wrong"?). Nasa says that "The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle." I assume that they mean past behavior by their "historic norms". To be able to assess the value of this claim I counted the length of the cycle minima beginning from the second month below 10 Wolfs to the second last month below 10 Wolfs. I compare this time frame to the cycle that is beginning. Below 1 year: 2 cycles (2 1766- and 18 1944-). 1.0-1.9 years: 12 cycles (includes all the five cycles 19-23 (1954-, … ,1996- ). 2.0-2.9 years: 2 cycles (1 1755- and 17 1933-). The cycle 24 will be at least in this category, because in July 2008 the lull preceding the cycle 24 has lasted already 2.4 years. 3.0-3.9 years: 3 cycles (5 1798-, 12 1878- and 15 1913-). 4.0-4.9 years: 3 cycles (7 1823-, 13 1889- and 14 1901-). 5.0-5.9 years: none. 6.0-6.9 years: none. 7.1 years: cycle 6 (1810-). 1810 is the only year after 1713 that has been wholly spotless. In August 2008 there will be 16 cycles with shorter minima and 7 cycles with longer minima than the on-going minimum. Still more important is that the longer minima are in two consecutive groups: cycles 5-7 (Dalton minimum) and 12- 15 (1878-1913) and that all the cycles 16-23 (1923-1996) have shorter minima than will be due to the cycle 24. Nasa continues: "This report, that there’s nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun." Probably Nasa means that our observations/hypotheses/theories, not the sun, is wrong. What is newsworthy is that since 1913 not one minimum has lasted as long as the on-going one. And the end is not in sight. What is newsworthy is that after a period of 76 years or one Gleissberg (1923-1996) of short minima we are back to periods like the 25-year Dalton (1798-1823) or the second part of the Maunder minimum (1675-1699) or the cycles 12-15 (1878-1913). The active part of the long minima cycles lasted 7-8 years and of the short minima cycles about 9 years. So there is a phase shift going on with the cycle 24 and that is what is newsworthy. The climate changes to cool and warm in step with the solar phase shifts. Nasa continues: "Decaying solar cycle 23 has so far lasted 142 months – well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal." (Why don’t they tell is their SD .95 or .98?). But in theory this is true in a mathematical sense, but unfortunately it has no relevance in this context. The reason is that we have here no socalled normal distribution, where you could use the standard deviation in a statistically and logically meaningful way. Instead we have here a series of phase shifts: 1798 (1796) to long minima, 1833 (1832) to short minima, 1878 (1876) to long minima, 1923 (1922) to short minima and now again (from 2005/2006) again to long minima. Nasa continues: "The current minimum is not abnormally low or long." But that’s not the point. The point is the ongoing phase shift with cycle 24. Nasa compares this minimum also with Maunder minimum ("the longest minimum on record"), which is not a valid comparison because the on-going minimum is between cycles (could be also between super-cycles, but that we can’t know) and the Maunder minimum was a super-minimum where we can (barely, but still) see five cycles. Nasa: "The quiet of 2008 is not the second coming of the Maunder Minimum, believes Hathaway. We have already observed a few sunspots from the next solar cycle, he says. This suggests the solar cycle is progressing normally." I take this as an overstatement. Three very tiny spots lasting 1-2 days during the last half year. Normal? Surely not. 10.7cm flux going down to some 65 during the same period. Normal? Maybe if we put together Maunder, Dalton and the hyper-active sun of the 1900’s. So this leads to the conclusion that however the sun behaves, it is normal. But there is really some point to that. The sun really behaves always normal (according to physical laws), but the various ways and many surprises in which it shows its normality is really fascinating. Good work ff! ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
I can only take credit for posting. The work is not mine.
Those of us they allow to live through the plagues and famines. That is the plan all right. Herd us all into cities where we are dependent slaves with no mobilty. That is why they are trying to kill the family car through high fuel prices. Dirty bastards.
"The difference between an honorable man and a moral man is that an honorable man regrets a discreditable act even when it has worked and he is in no danger of being caught." ~ H. L. Mencken
Here is a great graphic but it is too large to post. Distorts the page.
Those of us they allow to live through the plagues and famines. That is the plan all right. Herd us all into cities where we are dependent slaves with no mobilty. That is why they are trying to kill the family car through high fuel prices. Dirty bastards. You got it. And you get it. ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Excellent, thank you! ;-)
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Will An Inconvenient Truth become the Reefer Madness of its day? Silly me. When I first heard that Al Gore made a movie entitled An Inconvenient Truth, I assumed it was a documentary on his father's voting rights record in the Senate.
The U.S. Constitution is no impediment to our form of government.--PJ O'Rourke
We've been dancing around triple digits in SW Arkansas.
The U.S. Constitution is no impediment to our form of government.--PJ O'Rourke
#2. To: Rotara (#0)
#3. To: Original_Intent (#1)
#4. To: Sam Houston (#2)
I fervently or, should I say "icily," hope this is true.
#5. To: Rotara, JamesDeffenbach, RickyJ, *Agriculture-Environment* (#1)
The cycle 24 will start a new phase shift in the sun.
"You have delusions of adequacy."
#6. To: farmfriend (#5)
So there is a phase shift going on with the cycle 24 and that is what is newsworthy. The climate changes to cool and warm in step with the solar phase shifts.
#7. To: Rotara (#6)
Good work ff!
"You have delusions of adequacy."
#8. To: Rotara (#3)
The Kyoto envirowhacko tools, along with the corporate-pirate/National Party traitors, want you to live in a Federal high rise and pedal incessantly. ;-)
#9. To: Rotara (#4)
"You have delusions of adequacy."
#10. To: Original_Intent (#8)
The Kyoto envirowhacko tools, along with the corporate-pirate/National Party traitors, want you to live in a Federal high rise and pedal incessantly. ;-)
#11. To: farmfriend (#9)
Here is a great graphic but it is too large to post. Distorts the page.
#12. To: Rotara (#0)
#13. To: Sam Houston (#2)
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