See other War, War, War Articles
Title: Analysis: South Ossetian Conflict Will Cost Russia Dearly
Source:
DEUTSCHE WELLE
URL Source: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3548662,00.html
Published: Aug 9, 2008
Author: DEUTSCHE WELLE
Post Date: 2008-08-09 02:14:10 by TwentyTwelve
Keywords: South Ossetian Conflic, Russia
Views: 259
Comments: 9
DEUTSCHE WELLE Georgia | 08.08.2008 Analysis: South Ossetian Conflict Will Cost Russia Dearly The escalating conflict between Georgia and Russia over the former's breakaway province South Ossetia has far-reaching consequences and might become a major problem for Moscow, according to experts. Full-fledged fighting raged in Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia on Friday, Aug. 8, making short shrift of an Olympic peace set to blanket the opening ceremonies in Beijing. Russia's premier Vladimir Putin and US President George W Bush, arranged on different sides of the conflict, spoke with "one voice," according to Putin. "Everybody agrees -- nobody wants to see a war," the Russian leader said. But such words fell flat as pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, a close US ally, ordered a full-scale mobilization to re-take the separatist region and Russia deployed troops and fighter jets to "protect its citizens" against Georgia's "dirty venture." a map of Georgia and the regionBildunterschrift: Georgia, on the Black Sea coast between Turkey and Russia, was under Moscow's rule in their two centuries of shared Soviet history, but this influence has been challenged by the United States which is trying to win a foothold in the strategic Caucasus region. Pretenses of Russian-mediated peace talks scheduled on Thursday dissipated in the face of the spiraling fighting and analysts seemed tragically unsurprised to see tension derail to war. "They have been shooting at each other for months and for a military analyst like me, it was inevitable," Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent Moscow-based analyst, told DPA news agency. "South Ossetia has been routed, that's clear," he said. "Now it will be a difficult war between Russia and Georgian forces with South Ossetia taking a secondary role." After Russian media reported at least 10 of its peacekeepers dead in the fighting, state-owned Channel One television showed images of long Russian military convoys moving across into the mountainous South Caucasus. Rhetorical collateral The roughly 70,000 South Ossetians and residents in Georgia's other rebel region of Abkhazia, who aspire to re-unification with Russia, became an irrevocable part of Kremlin foreign policy since the beginning of this year, used as rhetorical collateral in Russia's disagreements with the West. With Kosovo's independence in February, Russian opposition took the form of a threat that its example would provoke a "domino effect" in the Caucasus. This fear was no less present in Georgia, which has not recognized Kosovo's western-supported independence, and Moscow's line served to amplify separatist claims in the region. Controversial NATO bid Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili wants to protect Georgia's territorial integrity Saakashvili has made re-asserting control over the rebel regions a priority of his presidency, as part of a concerted policy for rapprochement with the West focused in a bid to join NATO in April. Then-President Putin projected NATO's eastward expansion as a menacing betrayal and perpetuation of Western containment policy, but Moscow's key argument ran contra: That NATO membership would re-ignite civil war against Tbilisi's control. Had Tbilisi become a NATO member, the alliance would be obliged to protect it militarily, pitting Western alliance troops against Russian fighters -- a fact that did not escape European diplomats who voted to delay Georgian membership in the alliance despite Bush's personal backing of the bid. Dangerous double game But analysts point out that Russian policy was not all war-mongering, and Moscow, having lost a dangerous political double game, may find itself trapped in a war that, if prolonged, could prove immensely costly. Just before April, Russia ended a 16-month blockade and resumed air and postal links to Georgia, holding out the possibility of dropping economic sanctions as well. Russia's special envoy Yuri Popov arrived in Tbilisi to mediate peace talks between the two sides on Thursday, even as the fighting escalated out of control with both sides returning heavy artillery shelling and making bomber sorties with Sukhoi SU-27 fighter jets. Now, Felgenhauer said, Russia has made a choice that will drag it into a prolonged and difficult war because mountains form a barrier between the region and Russia, leaving only a one-road pass, closed off in the winter. "It's a logistical nightmare to try to take South Ossetia back from Georgia's quite good military," Felgenhauer said. "Massive Russian intervention may turn out to be costly, not only in terms of human costs ... it could be politically devastating for Russia's standing and economy." Russian-Western rift likely Georgia, whose army numbers around 18,000 soldiers, had surrounded the South Ossetia capital on Friday. Such a war could swiftly create a political rift between Russia and the West, whose support remains with Georgia for the present, other Russian observers said. The United States sent its envoy to the region on Friday. "We support Georgia's territorial integrity and we call for an immediate ceasefire," State Department spokesperson Amanda Harper told DPA. DPA news agency (win)
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)
Pat Buchanan was right a long time ago. Those who follow Pat will know exacly which column I am referring to.
Law Enforcement Against Prohibition "Corporation: An entity created for the legal protection of its human parasites, whose sole purpose is profit and self-perpetuation." © IndieTx I like the following post the best in my cruise-lurk-check of a variety of political discussion boards regarding the Georgia issue: " Calling Bush, where are you Bush? Bush is too busy getting drunk and scratching his balls at the Olympic opening ceremonies to worry about helping out his "pal" Misha Saakhasvili. What a lesson the Georgians are leaning today. The same kind of a lesson that the toad learned when he gave a ride across the river to a scorpion. Did Saakashvili really think he could buy protection for Georgia by showing Bush a "good time" with young Georgian ladies and sending 2,000 of his troops to die for Bush in Iraq? If he did, the Saakashvili is as foolish as the toad who got stung by the scorpion. And, what about the hundreds of American military advisors who flooded Georgia? They are all hiding out in the bars of the Mariott Courtyard Inn. We will see how "tough" they are if and when they ever dare to tangle with the Russian troops. But, don't expect these valiant Bush troopers to leave the safety of the Tbilisi hotel bars because it's much more dangerous to attack Russians than the defensless Iraqi women and children." To my mind, this post pretty much sums up the folly of anyone - that includes other nations ( except Israel) as well as folks stateside - to put their hopes, their beliefs in FedgovDC to come through on previous promises or intimations of "promises". FedgovDC often does the talk but is loathe to do the walk ( except re: Precious).
SLC bump.
Pat likes white people. Now that the Russians are no longer "Soviets," they're okay. The Georgians and other tribes south of Moscow are darker-looking people. In fact, I understand that Russians refer to the Chechens as "blacks." I cannot help but agree with Pat on this, not because I'm necessarily rooting for the white people, but because I don't like false flag operations and this began the other day as another classic USrael provocation.
“I would give no thought of what the world might say of me, if I could only transmit to posterity the reputation of an honest man.” - Sam Houston
FedgovDC is not your friend.
Georgia's provocative actions, ambushing and murdering Russians over this renegade province, is another sure sign that the Bilderberg Society is moving forward with Fobama/Zbig. More war for AmeriKa, regardless.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
In the meantime: NATO/AmeriKa/Israel will be engaged with Russia soon enough. Their proxy is just getting the ball rolling.
"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
"There is no 'legitimate' Corporation by virtue of it's very legal definition and purpose."
-- IndieTx
#2. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)
#3. To: scrapper2. all (#2)
FedgovDC often does the talk but is loathe to do the walk ( except re: Precious).
#4. To: IndieTX (#1)
#5. To: scrapper2 (#2)
FedgovDC often does the talk but is loathe to do the walk ( except re: Precious).
#6. To: TwentyTwelve (#5)
#7. To: scrapper2 (#2)
" Calling Bush, where are you Bush?
#8. To: scrapper2 (#2)
#9. To: Rotara (#8)
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest