
Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Unreality At The Barr Campaign
Ron Paul supporters aren't flocking to Bob Barr, and neither is America, while the Barr campaign continues to avoid directly addressing troubling questions about his political past and while the Libertarian Party's leadership seems to have lost touch with reality in this election.
by Walt Thiessen
(Libertarian)
Friday, August 15, 2008
The wheels are just beginning to fall off the Barr campaign. The latest email sent out yesterday by the Libertarian Party on behalf of the Barr campaign demonstrates this fact beyond any doubt. In that email Andrew Davis, National Media Coordinator for the LP, states the following:
As the days roll on, things are getting worse for Barack Obama and John McCain. The love-fest following a heated primary is wearing off, exposing the two candidates for the empty suits that they are.
This is why it is so important that we get Bob Barr into the national debates, opening up the door for a Libertarian Party victory in 2008.
We saw what happened to Ron Paul's campaign after the first national debate, and the same could be possible for Barr if he is allowed to participate!
So, how do we get him into the debates?
First, we must get him up to 15 percent in the polls. With Barr polling already at 6 percent nationally, we have a great foundation to begin the drive to 15 percent.
How do we get Bob to 15 percent?
Getting him on the ballot, which paves the way for Bob and all the other Libertarians to have a banner year in 2008, is a great way to build his numbers!
To help get Bob to 15 percent, we're asking for $15. Your generous donation will help launch Bob into the debates, showing America there is another choice in 2008.
The email message goes on to mention that this will help the LP as a whole and that if party members give just a little more money, their dreams might come true. The only problem is that the analysis is divorced from reality.
The truth is that Barr is nowhere near 6%. He did hit 6% nationally in one poll in June, but now he is polling in the 1-2% range in national polls...or at least, in those polls that are willing to include his name in the polling. By election day, if we use history as our guide, he likely won't even be at 0.3%.
USA Election Polls tracks all the polling it can get its hands on for the Presidential campaign. They have an entire page devoted to Bob Barr in the polling. The polls reported on that page show that while Barr was indeed in the 5-7% range in various polls taken in June, he has since plummeted into the 1-2% range in every poll taken in August where his name has been included in the polling questions.
Nationally, Gallup has Barr at 1%, Ipsos has him at 2%, and Zogby also has him at 2%. Regionally, he is in the 1.0% to 1.6% range, with his highest 1.6% number coming in Red States. Among individual state polls, he is at 2% in Florida (down from 3% in June), at 1% in Massachusetts (down from 5% in June), and at 1% in Alabama (down from 4% in June). No other state polling numbers are available for Barr at the USA Election Polls website for August.
The simple fact of the matter is that Barr is not catching on among libertarian-leaning Americans outside of the LP, and he doesn't even have solid support within the LP. He is losing ground rapidly (as any neutral observer of third party politics could have predicted) and is in clear danger of becoming an asterisk in the campaign.
Another clear indicator that Barr is not catching on with American supporters of liberty, particularly Ron Paul supporters, is that his FEC filings show absolutely meager amounts of fundraising. Reported fundraising through June 30, 2008 shows that only 334 individuals had given a grand total of $181,082. While that averages out to a respectable $542 and change per donor, the 334 figure is pitiful in contrast to the literally hundreds of thousands who have given to the Ron Paul campaign this same year. What's particularly weird about all this is that the home page of the LP's website shows that the campaign has only raised $153,202 as of August 15, 2008 at 7:35 AM EDT. Why so little? Perhaps this just represents how much money the LP has raised on behalf of the Barr campaign, not all funds raised by Barr himself. The party's website is unclear on this point.
Overall, this is an unimportant mystery. The much bigger mystery is: why is Barr failing in fundraising so utterly and completely? By contrast, the LP's 1996 candidate, Harry Browne (one of those "purist" candidates whom libertarian pragmatists have long railed against, a man who had absolutely no political experience of any kind) raised over $3 million that year and over $1.5 million in 2000. Ron Paul raised over $30 million this year. Barr can't even seem to raise $1 million.
Or can he? Party co-founder David Nolan, in an article published yesterday on this website, reports that the campaign raised $500,000 in June and July. If that's true, and if the FEC reports from the Barr campaign through June 30th are also true, then it means that the Barr campaign raised roughly $350,000 in July. But that doesn't make any sense either, because as Nolan acknowledges (and as the Barr website confirms) Barr's campaign has raised a mere $50,000 in August. Was July a blip? A statistical anomaly? Nolan says that Barr is still on track to raise between $1 million and $1.5 million, but given the actual numbers reported to the FEC by the Barr campaign through June 30th, I'd say there is serious reason to doubt that will happen.
UPDATE AND REVISION
After "Steve" left his comments under this article, I used the search information he provided and found two reports (actually two reports and one amended report) that I hadn't seen before at the FEC website. They are as follows:
March 27, 2008 thru May 31, 2008
June 1, 2008 thru June 30, 2008
The total amount collected for that period is $393,559, or just under $400,000. So Steve may be correct that the total amount raised through July is $600,000. But even if Barr does raise $1 million for the election cycle, how can this be characterized as anything but sub-par? Again, it falls far short of what Browne raised in 1996, and it isn't even close to what Paul raised this year. Surely, it was reasonable to expect much better than this given all the hype and promises from his supporters.
With the support of VP candidate Wayne Allyn Root, Barr nailed down the LP nomination at last May's convention, nudging out LP stalwart Dr. Mary Ruwart for the nomination. This was supposed to mean a new era of growth and prosperity for the party. The pragmatists had finally gotten their way, and a candidate who wasn't "purist," who didn't espouse all those embarrassingly pure positions all the time finally had been nominated, backed by another pragmatist who held similar political views as his VP running mate. This was supposed to bring hordes of more moderate conservatives, more pragamatic voters into the LP camp. Finally, the LP would be able to shed the label of being a political afterthought. Now that a candidate with real political experience had been nominated who knew how to win an election, who knew how to not say anything "stupid," the tide would finally turn for the LP. Ron Paul supporters would gratefully turn to Barr as being the next-best alternative to Paul himself, since Congressman Paul had withdrawn from active campaigning for the presidency in 2008.
So what went wrong? Well, actually two things went wrong.
First, the pragmatists have always been 100% wrong about why the LP wasn't (and isn't) getting anywhere. It has nothing to do with being too "purist." It has nothing to do with its prior candidates saying something "stupid" or "embarrassing." It has nothing to do with whether they have presented themselves in a "professional" manner. Rather, the LP's long string of failures has been due to two key facts: (1) it is a third party, and third parties have every aspect of election laws written against them, including the Constitution itself, and (2) the party has never learned how to build from the ground up. Instead, it has always insisted on growing from the top down.
The other thing that went wrong with the Barr campaign is that he failed to win over the party faithful. Unlike the realities that all third parties suffer under which are beyond their control, this situation was completely within the control of Bob Barr himself. Many, many LP activists have bemoaned (both on this website and in other forums) Barr's political record while he was in Congress. Barr has never satisfactorily addressed that record. Dr. Ruwart pointed out in a conversation overheard on C-SPAN toward the end of the LP's convention that Barr had received nothing but "softball" tosses under questioning during the party's presidential candidate debate. He did apologize for the harm that was caused by his opposition to gay marriage, and he and his supporters have struggled earnestly to show that he was really an opponent of the War in Iraq, of Real ID, of FISA, and of a whole host of other unconstitutional indiscretions which he supported while in Congress. Thus, he never had the support of thousands of long-time LP members who didn't trust him when he claimed that he had "changed" his views. And worse, he did nothing about it.
Nolan threw in a third point. He pointed out that the campaign is being mismanaged. He wrote:
Which brings us to the final measure of the Barr campaign: its management. And from the reports I've been getting from the grassroots, most Libertarians are monumentally unimpressed with the team running the campaign. There seems to be little or no strategic vision, response to requests from the grassroots is sluggish, and the campaign has made some bad choices in key personnel. Longtime, well-known Libertarians are conspicuous by their absence. Aside from a snazzy-looking website, the Barr campaign effort seems adrift.
And who is managing the Barr juggernaut? None other than Russ Verney, who was campaign manager for Ross Perot. This was supposed to be yet another reason why pragmatists wanted to believe that the LP was finally growing up. They were bringing in people who knew how to win. I wonder what excuses they're preparing to utter now?
For a politically savvy former Congressman, Barr has demonstrated very little understanding as to how to garner support and snowball it. His decisions regarding campaign staff have proven to be disastrous, and his failure to satisfactorily address questions regarding his libertarian principles has been conspicuous. One of the most important rules that any "pragmatic' politician follows is that once he vanquishes the other candidates in the party's nomination process, he makes peace with them and reaches out to their supporters. Failure to do so is always catastrophic. Yet, that is a mistake that Barr has clearly made. He has done absolutely nothing to satisfy those party members who simply don't trust his supposed conversion to libertarian principles. Instead, he has assumed that they'd all rally behind him from the day he won the party's nomination. The utter stupidity of this failure in calculation is almost beyond reckoning.
I've said in comments I've left under other columnists' articles on this site that I'm convinced Barr is going to perform dismally in November. Now I want to state my prediction clearly in this article. Because of Barr's totally incompetent campaign in 2008, not only will he fail to gain 1,000,000 votes, not only will he fall far short of breaking the 1% barrier, not only will he fall short of Harry Browne's 465,000 votes in 1996, he'll even fall short of Michael Badnarik's 397,000 votes in 2004. Barr's campaign will likely end up as one of the least productive and most embarrassing campaigns in LP history.
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